You understand the calendar differential,right? You understand that the elite player from whereever doesn't attend the first half or even latter half of Golden Weeks, right? You understand that about 150 or so of last year's little, poorly funded and or otherwise not all that desirable from a clientele perspective or otherwise important to the future of any Macau casino company are out of business or at least off in a ditch or bushes somewhere, right? You understand that Manila is advantage MPEL did not have until this month, right?
You understand that when the analysts flipped out on the jan 2014 numbers, then were estatic on the February 2014 numbers then were all gushy from then until Lawrence Ho said mass growth rates would be about half the run rate seen during the first 7 months of 2014 and that a return of growth was unlikely to be solid until into 2015 (which he has now pushed back further and to less growth but still positive for Macau overall 2h15, right? And you understand that if Macau GGR is subdued for longer than anyone thinks that is looking at forward VIP and other bookings, that MPEL is going to be easily taking a bigger share of the pie over the next three years once Studio City and then tower 5 open, right?
And you understand that as soon as there is some light in the dungeon these stocks will soar, right?
p.s. Re your -40%... that is pretty bullish for Feb all things considered.
fwiw, a few notes on adj made in the current chop. But first, a few notes on the media.
Shuli Renn writes that the 3rd and 4th days 'after" the CNY (19th) didn't go so well when at most only the 23rd was in the data set she regurgitated from the bush league analyst report on mtd February results YOY. Super lame when buysiders have expected an awful result for Feb especially but up through 1Q and maybe April vs 2014. And still no calendar comments? Almost as stupid as Shirley nonsense on 10+ aliases.
And now Cramer's 'Street" quasi journalism rag repeats Shuli's dippy regurgitation yesterday of the GGR Asia piece from two days ago? Lions and tigers and bears oh my! So a local politician makes some comments to suggest he understands that Macaunese people don;t like the golden Week crowds (and have long been frustrated by the slow to come LRT and other infrastructure developments needed to make things flow with far less friction about town) and that maybe there should be some kind of crowd volume constraints during heavy holiday periods? Ramifications are dreadful says Shuli!
huh? If mainland daytrippers, who, as buysiders know, don't play table games and maybe pull a few slots passing through the premium casinos on Macau (kinda just like Vegas these days), are subjected to visitation constraints during the super busy periods that legit VIP and mid/premium mass players are now passing on, somehow that means that macau casinos are in deep trouble and the stocks should get thrashed? precisely the kind of bs noise we love to go in heavy on... of course, we already own a bunch here... but this bs drop should npot last too long as the distortions in YOY comps/calendar effects are deciphered and things begin the claw out of the noise.
Covered the WYNN offset this AM. WYNN is likely getting hurt more the other US co's in Macau as the VIP reliance is rough for them but everyone hurling themselves overboard with the baby's bathwater have likely already jumped off.
LOL Everyone here is making there own decisions unless they are idiots like you Shirley Mason (aka toast, janetate,drjackoff,matrixtrade, blaqnite, tahoejack, fcanyc,fcaholley,fcaimbecile, idiotpumper, mytek, brinerbriner and 5-6 other aliases he has mistakenly revealed carrying on deceptive conversations with himself over time here and on the IKGH board. Thanks to "puthimon" who has been making fun of drjackoff and Bain they hyped IKGH while it crumbled from $8 to $1.
THAT irony is really funny though Shirley. Hold onto your pretty little hat too.
Shirley (drjackoff -- coinage courtesy "puthimon" here and on the IKGH board -- darqnite, dthe98,janetate, fcaimbecile,fcanyc, fcaholley and all "yous" other alaises),
Why not make all of you posts on a new alias calling yourself "shirleymason"... that way guys like grftt,edjenkins, crnjms, and everyone you have intentionally misled or tried to dis like a little girl on AOL would know to say FY and put you on ignore.
Now put all of your heads back up your %&@ and continue eating everything in sight.
bellow Shirley suggests "mark my words"... he forgets we already have right here where Janetate,toast,drjackoff, idiotpumper,tahoejack,mytek, matrixtrade and all the rest of his coy cork soaking on his other bs aliases' posts.
I already did "mark your words"
From january 7th:
and speaking of entertainment... how about that darqnite putz...
On Nov 6th he tells us he's buying at $25 for the first time as "value", then he tells us he'll buy it at $17. LOL
"blacqknight1 • Nov 6, 2014 2:33 AM
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I joined the house of pain tonight (1st position) I am begining to think there is some form of value here
He invites abuse and is some cork soaker all right. He also has and hetrouble keeping track of all of those known aliases from over there in Thailand. From his “sheethead" posts reveling in the bs of the HK Post nonsense article last month (as in here where his aliases all come toigether saying the same bs on the same threads), he reminds us that the multitude includes: blaqnite, sheetwise, fckanyc, fkuimbecile, idiotpumper, mytek, tahoedipshite, and I forget the other 4 or 5... Funny and ironic as hell this putz says our allocations are phantom when, as a few here know, we actually understand money management, taking/hedging risk and all of that.
It gets funnier...On December 17th, he suggested (right at the retest of the completed head and shoulders but successful bounce at the July 2013 low for MPEL, LVS and WYNN I discussed that day) that this is almost down to where he'd buy it at $17. That’s our basis on the core alright — excluding numerous hedging gain offsets and all of the trading gains taken out since 2011 (many discussed right here as they were done) that have reduced our “economic basis" to below zero on the core... Funny as hell this moron says my trades are phantom when as a few here know, that is "not exactly” our story.
"Almost at your 17... my buy price... you can call me names when i buy...lol"
time to begin cramming out the exit you blind mice that don't have any idea what you shorted this morning... and to further mix similes, take chicken little with you, you filthy animals, before Henny Penny kicks sand in your face. LOL
Shirley was worried for us, but we had lots of company this afternoon... gobble gobble was all we could hear on this and the airlines almost from the get go this morning.
Gee, are we alone in thinking that things are going a lot better for MPEL than the VIP oriented parts of the group, even before considering the Manila benefit this quarter?
We won't be surprised to see that Lawrence's treasury unit was busy scooping up shares while the discount lasts either. Love the idea of cork soakers shorting limited public float to the two billionaires controlling 68%+ of the stock.
Dressing up like Indians won't help.. smelling like fish bowels and greening MELP might be helpful though.
You conflate a few other things here. Beijing is not limiting the "number of transactions" or legitimate RC play done above board either, nor is Beijing trying to limit foreign tourists, perhaps especially not Western tourists.
thanks for cheering us up... I would be impressed if that is you coy wonder Shirley... almost like a different person what with the sytax, spelling and logic aspects presented. LOL
Shirley "Sybil" Mason,
dougie, amazing what a putz you have shown yourself to be...
Here's your update today. LOL Added large to AAL, UAL and DAL while the bs drop was in process... and have now done 5x today the add to mpel yesterday (and still tiny relative to core @$17 and trade sleeve @$25 and pennies). Stay short all of these trades now... and let's see where these close out the week and quarter.
but cmon dougie, tell us the one about IKGH again... wait... is that you David Bain? rough go coming for you if that is so... The Carlyle Group's brokerage amalgamation (Stiffel/KBW/Sandler and now dippy Sterne Agee deal for peanuts announced) likely haa a big red pencil out drawing lines through the names of analysts with no institutional following at that little third tier firm... but maybe BYD is looking for an investor relations associate, one good with presentation charts. LOL
Oh geee Shirley (drjackcar, toast, jane tate, mytek, tahoejack, blaqnite and all the rest of your underhanded, deceptive and zero integrity aliases here and elsewhere. You are one ironic little cork soaker alright calling our highly successful efforts (only two down years) "imaginary" when you are using 10+ aliases here and elsewhere carrying on conversations with yourself on yhoo and lvsforum and who cares where else. Short away here-- good having you opposite our thinking.
How is that "gonna add at $17" bs working out for you, or your IKGH hyping on at least 5-6 aliases there as it crashed from $8 to $1? Special thanks to "puthimon" on this and that board for calling you out as the moron that you are. btw, we are adding today -- 3x yesterday's level and still peanuts and below MPELs w ave buyback levels... given the dippy analysts lowering numbers to almost where the buyside has them LOL, some here may want to do some hedging for a few days while the bs plays out and then reverses. We have.
You trying to dis my career record? Really? Put you head back up your #$%$ and keep eating. We are off to another solid start. You tried to dis the pcln, expe, trip, and two year run on the airlines on the bs ebola dip right here, but no mention of our big gains (long and hedges shared) on MPEL, WYNN and LVS or the banks and round trips you studied on AAPL, TPX, AMGN, SBUX, or the big shorts on several retailers and the oil complex after playing long several trips on many names in those spaces? It really is ironic when you have zero credibility and actually try to dis me here, when my posts are never trying to f over the unsuspecting as you do daily.
speaking of paired trades... love yours: short MPEL/long ikgh since July 2013. comedy`
Those who are staying current on macau, or even just reading the legitimate posters here once in a while, should have a good grip on the significant calendar differential and what that means to the preCNY lull period vs last year and to February in isolation, even before considering the other factors crimping GGR -- likely for another couple months at least on a YOY basis. Reading this thread is directly on point if you missed it before...
So this morning 3 big firms (and David Bain from tiny Sterne Agee as shared here by ShirleyJaneTate LOL) are out with first call pieces suggesting their phone call survey channel checks yesterday reveal that the first half of Feb was light vs PY (lull not really covered by any of them) and the first weekend of the CNY celebrations were lighter than dreaded by the pantswetting media and analysts. Surprise surprise -- now comes Shuli Renn & Detar repeating that VIP and higher end players are lying low for as far as the eye can see because of the Tiger and Bear hunt and 32 other reasons.
I also have yet to see a single analyst (forget the media) point out that VIP players have pretty much ALWAYS shunned playing in Macau during the front half of the CNY celebrations, and come back to play only toward the end of Golden Week or in the following weeks because they hate fighting the big crowds there on the public floors and getting around. Again, this year there is even more reason to avoid the crush crowds.
Against that backdrop, no one should be surprised to see GGR light for Friday through the first long weekend... same for high end shopping numbers. Surprise?
Will MPEL and WYNN's new initiatives to host big VIP tours yield some play over the coming weeks and months and 2H? Likely. MPEL also has the Manila venue, but early days there, especially for VIP and the same calendar issues there too.
Recall the analysts all jumped out the windows last jan before Feb results too. They may even pull their buys now. LOL
Thanks for the article.
Those paying attention to what is happening in macau know the little junkets are being tossed out due to lack of play/low volume, likely on all of the financing and tigers and flies scrutiny and desire on the part of many to lie low until the spotlights dim.
That has been good for business at other venues, but the large, high quality VIP tour operators continue to do surprisingly well in macau as evidenced by Altira's results last quarter despite having two floors offline and now, just last week, bringing to more new VIP rooms back on line in addition to major refurbs on a few others in recent weeks.
Despite the cfo of MPEL's Manila partner telling the press there (two weeks ago) that she does not know the status of VIP play at COD and other venues in Manila, it is let's say "likely" that both of the owners of COD are bringing in some tours to play in the 300 deluxe suites they have set aside to accommodate such patronage.
The little "shakeout" seen last week and early this morning was a great chance for us to add a few shares at 10:30, right when the margin departments began closing out margin calls on the "geniuses" like our own "Shirley Mason" who are "happy to be short this stock" because they suggest VIP is never coming back (never mind that it never left at the big tours) and that the stocks can;t/win't recover until VIP/GGR is growing significantly again. LOL up the last 30%!
Then we have the reality: the group is recovering smartly, MPEL is the cheapest of the group on baseline ebitda coming, and no company has the magnitude of catalysts that MPEL is shooting like ducks in a row.
btw, the chart looks solid and support at $27 is notable confirmation of the fundamental and quant aspects.
A report concerning the revenues generated by casino venues during the Chinese New Year celebrations was published mere hours ago.
According to the information, a lot of tourists visited the Chinese administrative region. In combination with the Macau-based players, the mass floors generated decent revenues. However, the statistics for the VIP gambling revenues is not really optimistic.
The celebrations started on February 19th and more than 434,000 people arrived to the Asian gambling Mecca in a single day.
As expected, the majority of tourists were from Mainland China but Macau officials said that the data might not be absolutely accurate since the rest of the visitors were workers or students, which makes the estimates about the number of visitors likely to go to casinos not absolutely accurate.
According to prominent market analysts, the previous week was a really successful one. In a special note, released on the matter, they said that casinos have not been so busy since the Golden Week, which took place in October.
The market analysts went on to say that apart from the busy casino floors, the Chinese New Year celebrations brought about another positive change. An increase in the amount of the minimum bets was also reported.
As for the weak VIP revenues, market analysts expect a significant increase this week. In other words, they are convinced that the last days of February are going to be really profitable and to revive the struggling casino sector in...
goog title for full article
Shirley (janetate, drjackcar, isiotpumper,mytek, tahoejack, blaqnite,dthe98, brinerbriner, jususheadus, and all the rest of your numb effer alaises, hope you are enjoying being short this group...
This stock is up some 30% from the recent retest low and now sits on the 40w ema after some low volume selling on option expiries at $28 and $27.50 yesterday. We know some folks playing possum and grabbing up all the shares nubs sellers have tried to short to advantage here. LOL
Your comments here are funnier than usual though, almost as funny as your numb effer comments using the dthe98 alias here and on WYNN and MGM boards about shorting this into the last conference call and how you'll cover at $21 based on premarket tape painting that day. You can wet yourself on "earnings" multiples if you want, but your bs sniping aside, you know eps doesn't matter to MPEL's valuation any time soon. MPEL never has, does not now and won't "trade on "earnings" until Studio city and manila have ramped... and then the opex related to developing phase 2 of SC and Manila are done... all that #$%$uming no movement on Japan.
Funnier still is that you did the same stupid #$%$ trading on MGM (where you suggested shorting at $20.30 into their call, and you foaming at the mouth about shorting WYNN more at $153 into their "horrid results." The entire group has rallied on that [not so] "bad news"... and though you continue to rant about tough comps for Feb and how the group can;t possibly rally until VIP GGR growth resumes, you are obviously dead wrong on that too.
You ought to stick to being long IKGH, and only lose money on one side of the VIP dynamics in Macau... otp, the big tours are doing just fine with the likes of the new VIP rooms at Altira and likely it seems, so to be at WYNN's new salons too.
Read the last 5 call transcripts dufus, but especially the one I am discussing here. As with Macau, WYNN's future depends on bending its once heavy reliance on VIP play to mass... not only gind mass, but as Steve called it "mid-level and premium mass." More than once he's tipped his hat to lawrence Ho's leadership on this initiative, and along with MGM in macau, is now flattering MPEL with "copying" MPEL's tactics... without Ho's connectivity and prowess on the China scene, to be sure, but flattering nonetheless. Read below for Steve's affirmation of my comment is his own words (from the subject call transcript):
Steve says January is better than Jan '13 on important metrics, thinks February will also be significantly better than recent months, and relates his occupancy is full, with "a little more mass occupancy than VIP now." MPEL's business is well ahead of them on the "new, increasingly mass oriented Macau" obviously. A few bites:
"Surprisingly [Steve said WYNN's january VIP was down 40% as they turn the ship toward mid/premium mass] we made more money in Macau in January, for example, than we did a year-ago."
"Amusing January because we know the results of this first month and in January, we were able to make $80 odd million instead of $70 odd million."
"This January our mass business was up 26%"
"We also are opening in a week or so, the new area of the casino in Macau that is dedicated to VIP business and this has better facilities than anybody seen in that town yet. And we are getting some very good people to occupy that space which also frees up some of our other space for more mass table games. So to that extent I think February is going to see an improvement of some sort and I don’t need to quantify that, but I expect that we will see a better result comparing that to the previous months."
When Steve said that, MPEL was just finishing up its new VIP facilities for Suncity at Altira and they opened two more salons for other big tours there in Feb.
I hope Shirley Mason (aka janetate, toast, drjackcar,blaqnite, tahoejack, matrixtrade, brinerbriner, jugusheadus and all the alternate aliases in this thread title plus a few more), our multialias joker here, is still "glad to be short MPEL and otherwise enjoying hyping her IKGH ride from $8 to $1... she should have listened to "puthimon" and the "market" guy who called that out as a complete pos dog all year last year.
PCLN's news is almost precisely as called... and as is apparent, our key allocation to MPEL (largest position just getting going on the new and coming catalysts) as well as other large allocations to AAL, UAL and TRIP and PCLN have us off to a good start on the new year. Reloads on HTZ, CAR, SBUX and AMGN (all big winners for us over time as the longtime/legit pals know) all powering higher too.
One thing successful people in china have figured out is that those flaunting their promo activities in china will be shown that playing by the rules is required. The real VIP players wanting to go outside of macau on tours do not need to be coaxed... they will find their own pathways.
Our resident Shirley Mason here is quite the piece of work on all of his moronic incarnations:
toast/drjackcar/janetate/darqnite/mytek/idiotpumper/tahoejack/fcaholley/fcanyc/fcaimbecile/matrixtrade and all of his other numb effer alaises.
Shirleydrjackcar made it clear he sold out at $28, then bought at $26 (as darqnite) then, stock at $24, says will buy at $17, then, as JaneTate, says he's now short at $25 (JaneTate so "happy to finally be short") as, after being called out by puthimon on the IKGH board that drjackcar and several of his Shirley Names there) have hyped for over a year while that stock went from $8 to $1, (he stops sharing Bain's increasingly useless opinions as toast and jane (using precisely the same paragraphs to cut and paste as drjackcar on the lvsforum -- LOL), then fails to cover here at the $21 retest, then, last week prior to the CC posts 30 or more times about how one would have to be an idiot to stay long into the disatrous CC coming (same on his ill-fated WYNN shorting), and, funniest to date, based on bs premarket prints and the first 20k shares of open tape prints tries to dis me that he'll cover at $21 -- less than a minute before the stock jolted higher and continuing the 30% plus run from $21. And, "blieve it or not", he now expects readers here to believe he is long now, and suggests he will sell it out at $30 and go short.
"Shirley Mason" really ought to stick to hyping IKGH on his various new aliases... notice the brinerbriner one there sounds just like "drjackoff" as "puthimon" a quality poster who called out Shirley's bs and many aliases over time and also called IKGH a great short over a year before it dropped 90%.
So now today Shirley suggests Grant Govertson is an idiot young guy living in the midwest and knows nothing about China or Macau, when Grant actually lives in macau. LOL
The little dufus and his endless stream of bs is more ridiculous than previously thought... "happy he is short" though. ROTF
The utmost aim of the executives is to attract high roller players and offer unique facilities that would increase Goog title for the full article, but here is another fun article about COD Manila's prospects industry rag "Casino News Daily"
...the number of tourists visiting the Philippines and therefore, diversify country’s economy.
However, the opening of City of Dreams Manila is not going to be just another event that will be forgotten by the communities within a week and they will be informed about its financial performance every now and then.
On the contrary, the opening of the mega resort will have a great impact on the future development of the gambling sector in Asia.
The company has already consolidated its positions on the Macau gambling market but in the Philippines, things are going to be slightly different.
It is a common knowledge that the majority of Macau-based venues rely on gambling activities in order to generate decent revenues while the revenues from non-gambling activities are considered not too profitable.
However, Lawrence Ho, the CEO of Melco Crown, said that the newly opened resort will generate excellent revenues from non-gambling options since the demand for leisure and entertainment was really high.
What is more, Ho expects 50% of the total revenue to be generated from VIP players and 50% from mass market players.
The biggest issue existing casinos will have to face is the shrinkage of their market since City of Dreams is perfectly capable of attracting large number of players.
Not to mention the fact that the resort has the support of SM Group, the most prominent operator of shopping malls on the territory of the country.
In addition, the complicated situation related to the revenues of Macau and Singapore-based casinos makes the chances of City of Dreams to triumph on the Asian gambling market even higher.