OT just to make fun of stupidity
make that 6 aliases... forgot about his numb F "sheetwise" alais he also uses in his clusterF posting to himself and matrix. LOL
LOL matrix AOL girlwonder still posting with this dufus as his girlfriend. I didn;t bother to read matrix's blithering here, let me guess he repeats his memory impaired $43 comments when we sold out/hedged up there while he was hyping $75 PT for 2014. ROTFL
And for the multialias twit, I noted on his other dufus thread about EXPE with AOL girlwonder that I might note when we go long any of the three OTB names again. After the just shy of $114 gain/share realized on exiting at $1155 last trip, back on a full allocation at $1085 this morning after the CEO reassured the street that they anticipate another record Q (revs and EPS) and that as for conservative guidance (below street consensus), they make a practice of "underpromising" as most of their shareholders understand...
Glad you morons are worried about us. Had you on ignore but searched "idiotpumper" and there you are. LOL
One more thing...
COD occupancy has run at 100% ALL YEAR LONG... and ADRs have risen during each of the last 4 Qs... and, no, the casinos are not empty unless you are talking about Vegas.
your comments reflect a comprehensive lack of knowledge of the company and VIP play.
Given what is happening with Premier Xi's corruption crackdown in Beijing (having nothing to do with corruption in Macau per se), MPEL is the best-positioned company in Macau, having their focus on the prestige end of mass play and guests who actually stay the weekend, go to shows, and have dinner in one of the high end restaurants. They also have the least reliance on VIP tours to generate their revenue stream (MPEL has a higher percentage of mass play to total than even LVS), and the best adj ebitda per table...
And no, MPEL is decidedly NOT the "low man on totem pole" [sic]... as VIP has dropped to a run rate of some 20% less YOY, MPEL is actually GAINING overall market share... and they already had significantl;y more share than did WYNN and MGM in Macau.
Stuff that in your bong and torch it over there...
anyone who cares what we did with HLF, EXPE, PCLN or any of the dozen or so names we have shared ideas on over time on yhoo on many round trips already knows what they are you little gimp... pay attention idiotpumper, and you may even learn when we go back to large on key names. LOL
i'd cut and paste my reply to your inanity on your other post here today once again here, but off you go to ignore...
This is the fifth alias this twerp (he goes by various known names including idiotpumper/mytek/tahoe/blacknite/) has used on this board. You know, the moron who say he made billions short/long NFLX, TSLA/HLF and every other stock jumping around all decade. LOL I'll point out how stupid his moronic comments are just once on this heretofore unseen here alias before putting that on ignore.
EXPE did crush earnings (and revenues) that is why the stock jumped from below $80 to above $85 last Friday -- where we blew out half and the other half yesterday on the afternoon fade ahead of PCLN's news to pare risk trade allocations on the fade into the elections and oil going nuts south.
PCLN also beat on earnings and revs. No one need fret for little old us -- those who have been reading along as we go know we've run PCLN many times in recent yrs, and owned most of the PCLN below $1040 on the recent gift pullback (sound familiar? ring any bells? Yeah, and on the trades we share, we talk about it BEFORE the events, not after like this tard). We blew out of half of PCLN at just below $1200 yesterday (biggest position of the 3 OTAs) and TRIP (smallest trade) yesterday. Out of PCLN just below $1200 and the other half today at $1110. As for residual TRIP, we'll blow out small TRIP left after it bounces on the buyback in a few days. Yeah, we would have had pcln all out at $1200, but the fundamentals are great for the business and only improving save for PCLN rationalizing that Europe may be weaker fwd on USD concerns and EU growth. Maybe shorts will take all these down to where we play again this Q. Per PCLN news this morning, they gave the classic upod guidance, coming in below consensus for 4Q. So that stock will take a few days or more to recover -- typical of them.
HLF? Go read our record there. Traded green dozens of times; sold the core at $80 basis was $38 ex hedging gains) on the way up, hedging the 2nd big trade piece at $80 until closing it out later.
Oct #s are as expected for weeks so no surprise and centered on crimped VIP from smaller tours.
Bloomberg story on VIP crimping through October (excerpt below) almost does a decent job summarizing how Xi's corruption campaign has caused the disruption and will likely continue to manifest itself in reduced VIP GGR, but this is not news for those paying attention since the Vegas flyin spike and then fade there too... The people still playing on the tours (call it 80% of peak) are obviously still playing, and as evidenced by LVS, WYNN and even MGM results, mass is doing just fine in Macau.
The Japan piece is likely no time soon. Yet still 80% of VIP goes on and the companies focused on mass are doing well in M, and discounting one day soon for new properties coming on (Manilla and SC will help MPEL.
“In The Foxholes”
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN), the casino company founded by billionaire Steve Wynn, reported Oct. 28 that revenue climbed 9 percent at its two casinos on the Las Vegas strip, which helped offset a 5.6 percent drop in its properties owned by Wynn Macau where the company gets more than two-thirds of its sales.
“The policy of the central government in being very, very aggressive about what appeared to be a misconduct and corruption of the government has put a lot of the wealthy businessmen in the foxholes,” Wynn said in a teleconference after the results, according to a Bloomberg transcript.
“I don’t know whether it’s a squall or we’re in the rainy season or how long it will last, but we’re still very, very bullish on Macau,” the 72-year-old executive added.
Government finances won’t be hit by falling casino tax revenue even with continued declines next year, said Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam in a statement on the Information Bureau’s website.
The industry’s current slowdown “is in line the authorities’ expectations,” Tam said...
Agree on all of that... broadly, the street group think is take Sep Q annualized, haircut that 5% and call it the "forecast" for 2015. As noted for a couple of years running here, the buyside firms don't pay much accord what the brokerage analysts in this sector have to say... Buyside teams know the sellside adds no meaningful vlaue to the conversation on these companies.
The good news is that a couple of the Macau companies are not dependent on VIP so much as others, and, in the case of MPEL, it has Manila opening up momentarily... and Studio City (the first phase that is) opening in another 8-9 months from now. The upshot of that is although MPEL is carrying the preopening costs of gearing up staff and training for these properties, they will soon have some revenue streams to go along with them.
The thing most of these "analysts" and the media pigeons that regurgitate every negative color point they can find and so all of them are still missing... is that STILL come 80% of VIP tour play is continuing in Macau. That is net of all diversions to other venues around the world and also those corrupt/indicted and soon to find themselves in one or the other of those buckets as a result of Xi's "tigers and flies" corruption routing (as pointed out more than once here).
As evidenced by the stocks clawing their way back from recent lows to the 50d emas, more than a few buysiders are growing increasingly comfortable that the worst is over. For the little AOL girls here, I'm not saying the group can;t find a reason to retest, just that the Golden Goose theme will likely soon prevail over Xi's political grab as "corruption witchunting" fades.
And the mass piece continues on better than any of the naysayers have been pouting about as discussed amply here...
Following up my reply to crnjms on hos new thread on chanos, if one wants to fret about something potentially harmful to Macau, I'll suggest it is the ongoing bs commentary of Tam re the bs table limit "guidelines". As noted prior, these "guidelines" are not law, nor are they even remotely being enforced to date as evidenced lately by the granting of 35, no 50 tables to a dockside concessionaire under the rationale that it is "good for growth in macau." To the extent they actually did enforce the guideline (in effect, really just a talking piece to coerce IR developers to actually do more than just build monolithic casinos) of 3% annual growth, that means that the tables Galaxy, Wynn, MPEL or LVS individually think they will be granted over the next two years would, INDIViDUALLY, more than spend the entire 3% "limit" for 2015 and 2016 COMBINED! Then there are another 4 new properties coming on line if we include the others and extend out to 2017.
simply stated, there is NFW Macau can actually be thinking this limit is going to be enforced, unless they want to go from having macau be the biggest gaming hub to being the biggest laughing stock of communist mishandling of commerce in the new century. What, some $25B or so of new capital has been committed to these new projects, and then they are going to tell them they can have the next three years allocation of tables (so less than 500 altogether) to split amongst them while they gave 50 to a party that is not even a legit resort? Notice how even Steve and Shel have gone quiet on this... no doubt the local govt has asked them to not say much and that things will work out as "promised" to the developers.
One could also try to emphasize the corruption angle and new office of corruption (LOL) as a legit concern. The reality is that the top VIP operators are still coming without friction -- some 80% of the peak level of play! Already, those with a corruption risk are either dead, hiding, or never coming back.
Chanos has been short China real estate developers, hoteliers, engineering firms, banks/insurance companies and the gaming companies for at least three years. As per my comments on his "interview" with IBD's weak sauce journalist Detar, Chanos is likely being squeezed hard by the recent surprising strength in China and turnaround in the gaming stocks... and he is prone to seeking air time when he wants to shout his themes publicly. He's been notably "right" on a lot of ideas over time (esp Enron where he made his name as a short specialist), but he has often been expensively "wrong" and he'd be the first to admit that.
China's economy is in transition away from production/construction build out to more consumer/service oriented growth -- witness Jack ma saying the future for Alibaba is not more exports but bringing western brands IN to China consumers -- and macau is going to figure prominently in the future of tourism/visitation for China or they have a ton of surrounding economic development projects that will soon be "see though" commercial and residential space... The central planners there do not want to see any erosion of their ~$20B year of tax revenue going to other places as the chorus will increasingly be singing over the next few months if Beijing becomes hostile to macau.
Note that Chanos emphasis has long been housing, commercial real estate and engineering outfits in china -- not so much about the gaming companies. In fact, he MPEL was long a couple of the gaming companies a few years ago... He public commentary since has been more about he "wouldn't own the casino companies in macau" -- but for the reason that the other aspects of the economy were going to tumble. He's been wrong on the broader issues, and the Macau companies too, but I would not be surprised if he has no short on them, esp down here now. As I wrote prior, he is a smart guy.
If you missed this one from last summer, it is also an excellent video on Macau developments... specifically, how key thought leaders (Shel/LVS, Lawrence Ho/MPEL and Pansy Ho/MGM) are thinking about the future development of macau and how customer preferences are changing rapidly (as told by Lawrence on the early May conference call and then by him and his sister on this later video.
The timing of this re-airing as part of the "Best of Titans" series is interesting. All four of the US listed stocks have just reclaimed their 50d ema, some are buying back stock despite heavy capex for new property development in Macau (MPEL in Manila too), confident about their future in Macau (the 3 with Vegas/other US venues not so much) and all four mgmt teams are essentially saying, SFW that VIP is down we are focused on mass/premium mass (none so effectively or early as has MPEL) as the future of Macau... and just now, a quarter later, all are reporting surprisingly solid ebitda progress on mass gaming despite all the hubbub about VIP being down 20% YOY... of course, most here likely know MPEL's business and assets are principally focused on mass/premium mass and that it has the highest percentage of mass/total rev and best mass and overall ebitda/table of the group for a long while running.
This morning I mentioned the other video was on Bloomberg's re-airing schedule... because it came up easily when I searched for my earlier post. Actually, though, this is the video Bloomberg aired very early this morning. This one showcases more about MPEL's ceo and co-chairman (Lawrence Ho) and his vision for MPEL assets in Macau. Shel is as narky as ever and fun to watch too. Pansy Ho? Not so fun -- looks like she drink vinegar instead of coffee in the morning -- same as ever with her..
google the thread title for the video... another 23 minutes of worthwhile viewing for MPEL longs
Ed, thanks you are correct. We have three other companies reporting Tuesday.
"financial results for the third quarter of 2014 on Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on November 6, 2014, to be followed by a conference call on the same day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (or 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time)."
Bloomberg re-aired this 23 minute show this morning. If you are long and have not seen it, you might consider goog the title to watch start to finish for a great overview of macau and MPEL's posturing there. Fun to highlight that with the 8 new properties currently underway in Macau, concessionaires are upping their bets on Macau by some $26B worth of new construction, most of it on Cotai... apparently they all feel good about Macau's future as the "look back" moment of Fall 2014 starts to look and feel like thefinal bottom now that more than just sophisticated longs understand VIP growth is not needed to generate solid ebitda leverage for MPEL and LVS (in particular), or even WYNN and MGM. Again, even MGM China, more heavily reliant on VIP than all but WYNN, put up ebitda growth of 12% YOY for the Sep Q -- not bad considering VIP is down ~20% in aggregate for the period.
MPEL has what they are now calling "the initial phase" of Studio City coming on line mid-2015 and COD Tower 5 (which will become the iconic tower on the Cotai strip dedicated to premium mass) is now under construction as well. As disclosed in April, MPEL is currently developing its plans for the "expansion phase" of Studio City, which will more than double the room count of the first phase...
MPEL also disclosed a few months ago that they have more than the initial 967 rooms for COD Manila planned there... as with Studio City, they are now working on their "expansion phase" for that best in class facility opening within weeks from now in Manila.
MPEL reports Tuesday, Nov 4, and should have a solid report all considered... and chance would have it that now is their turn for better than thin RC holds.
Chanos is a cpa and smart guy, and he's made several great calls on his short orientation HF... enron the big one in my recall... but he has been calling China a bubble and ready to collapse for years now, saying the housing and shadow banking mires would swamp China's economy and take the world with it since before COD opened! today he tells Detar at IBD, "corruption, credit crunch, all we have been saying", as if he called the real crunch seen since Xi's corruption campaign started causing guys to jump off of tall building last summer... and lots of folks to lay low... in their foxholes Steve said a few days ago -- a fun term we have been using here for a month or so. LOL
glad to see Chanos out there talking to the weak-minded droids who will publish his "hot air" thesis... a sure sign his shorts are crunching his positions and he's getting a tad pinched. Hey Shuli, you let Detar get out there first with this "real time, market making news." ROTFL
anyway, it is all good fun and, based on the Abe news today (nice) and surprisingly decent ebitda generation out of even MGM in the "troubled" quarter in what Nomura's analyst framed as the "dangerous VIP" decline as if it was the end of the business in macau (LOL), it is increasingly looking like $24 was the bottom for now... we'll leave the short puts out there until they expire next month. We even added a few shares again when they drooped below $27... soon that "little" trade sleeve of ours will be in the money again.
fwiw, we also put on a small (5k) WYNN trade this morning. The quant premise is simple -- Macau is not dead whether Chanos and his media and sell side analyst pigeons like it or not, and WYNN is the second best positioned and second cheapest in the group, so it should be outperforming LVS and MGM. That said, all four stocks are still on sale and WYNN will soon be back above $200 (speculating) and the special and regular dividends totaling $2.50 go ex next Thursday.
Some MPEL longs might enjoy reading through the MGM transcript. Seems they finally have a legit construction process underway for MGM Cotai and even have three floors above ground now. They pushed back their "tentative" opening date from mid 2016 to "Fall 2016" but at least they are building and apparently done saying that they (and everyone else) are stalled and uncertain about when construction will get going there; since the last Q call, someone must have told Murren not to say everyone is stalled/uncertain about completion targets since Galaxy, MPEL Studio City and Wynn Palace are capping/installing interiors now.
They were unconcerned about mass or premium mass play slowing or margins fading andalso had this to say about VIP:
Nomura analyst (bozo with the Visitation spend chart Shuli loves to quote)
"And then, Grant, as it pertains to VIP, it's kind of a dangerous question [ yeah, okay "dangerous" -- what a putz]. Is your sense that there's any stability in this, in your customer base yet?
Grant R. Bowie - President
Well, it's transitioning. I don't think it's an issue of customer bias, I just think we're going through a realignment more than anything else. And that's been going on for some time and it's being well discussed and well reported. The operators are still seeing customer flows. Yes, it's down on previous experience, but they're starting to reconsolidate in there. The feedback we're getting at this time, it can be a little more positive as they readjust to the new conditions."
As I wrote last week, one day soon even these dopey sellside analysts are going to figure out that still 80% or so of the run rate VIP is still happening in Macau... and even MGM's China ebitda was up 12% YOY for the Q.
Next, MGM execs said they aren't doing any pricing promos and other than saying the new "smoking ban" rules are confusing, yawned about that too.
Abe unexpected round of QE had jolted the Asian markets overnight Russia signing up to source heating fuel for Europe with a concession on the $5B due bill from last year has pumped the European markets... Germany is up ~1.7% this morning.
Gee... who'da thunk maybe the sky is not going to fall on China or Macau?
yoondr and anyone else trying to understand the difference between VIP gaming and mass/premium mass, as well as why most buyside teams ignore the sellside in this industry, ought to read this thread top to bottom.
funny as hell to think dipchitt's rate some of the comments negatively... they wet themselves too. LOL
But the Nomura analyst team should be fired for trying to issue an "earthshaking" revelatory piece with their lame graph Barron's weak sauce blogger wrote about like it mattered, when the reality is that their work is ridiculous -- superficial and wrong. The research director needs to be replaced for letting them publish such goofy work too... and for getting morons such as Shuli Renn and Detar to republish the inanity.
Too stupid to laugh about really... good thing no one managing money looks to these idiots for input.
Meanwhile, LVS, WYNN and now even MGM's results have shown that even with VIP down hard they can still make progress on adj ebitda, even if holds go from fat to thin in YOY comps. MPEL, the least reliant on VIP junkets of them all, results next week will give all of these media and analyst naysayers on the MPEL story something to chortle on for years to come... and here comes Manila and in about 8-9 months, phase 1 of Studio City (contemporaneously with Galaxy's new property to help build excitement and another reason to go to Macau again -- almost a year ahead of Wynn's Palace and MGM Cotai.
MPEL is likely to report the best results of all four companies next week...
About your "confused as heck," seriously now... from the comments of many here, it seems few actually understand the business in even rudimentary terms. Congrats to you for wanted to learn more about what you own.
In as helpful a spirit as I can muster (and gleeful about what the other companies results imply for MPEL's positioning and our returns on the airlines and OTAs in recent weeks as ebola concerns fade to black) all things considered, you should read through MPEL or LVS' 10 and June 10Q filings to learn more about industry terms and the difference in VIP (table roll) gaming revenue, net and mass/premium mass gaming revenue. Pay particular attention to the margin differentials in these very different quantitative differentials and the impact on adj earnings, adj ebitda generation. Building on that knowledge base, then go study the mix between mass/VIP for each of the four gaming companies listed in the United States... then your confusion will be resolved, and you'll understand why the couple of quality analysts and knowledgeable posters here believe MPEL is the best-situated company in Macau given what is happening there with perhaps temporary and perhaps more lasting VIP tour curtailment as well as the reality that Tower 5 will quickly become the "premium mass" place of choice (WYNN's new Palace should also fare well), what Ho meant by "repsoitioning" altira for the high end tour operators,
otp, you'll be in a far better position to understand all of the quality posts shared here by the few willing and capable of doing that amongst all the useless drivel and "little girl" bs .
TRIP and PCLN will also have fabulous results to share next Tuesday...
We own all three -- they should have little trouble running up 15% or so into EOY as the hedges all come off starting tomorrow.
Meanwhile, you have to laugh at the pizzant hedge fund trying to head fake short and PCLN down tonight... same as the idiot shorts do on these stocks every Q it seems. Big moves up tomorrow -- shorts are roadkill as my partner loves to quip on stories like this.