Goog that title to see the Credit Suisse analyst making fun of herself... incredible to think people that incompetent can retain their jobs, even if they work 90 hrs a week in grimy little cubicles.
And check out those dazzling stats she spews forth on how much UnionPay cards fund for mass and also VIP -- 10-15% on the latter she says. Talk about clueless.
That said, she does say the "concerns may be overblown" that this meeting to review existing information sharing between originating and settling banks somehow means anything to Macau, and there she goes again, saying the "corruption crackdown on Macau" is what this is all about.
Unless one is a political enemy of current leadership in Beijing or a known "shady deal"/private club #$%$ being hunted down by the new security minister, there is no "corruption crackdown on macau" unless one is talking about executives organizing "protection" in the form of skimming from the working girls at Lisboa's now vacant "goldfish bowl" where #$%$ parade around the loop, or those involved in illicit (i.e., illegal/non-compliant with established rules) transfers of money away from china. Again, gaming on a VIP junket is perfectly legal -- just ask the big tours, including David Group, that continue to take clients to play in luxury facilities there daily.
On the David Group note, they are shutting down only 4 of their 7 rooms -- likely some of that VIP play is being redirected to Manila. :) That leaves 9 of the top 10 junkets still running the same number of rooms, David Group with 4 of 7 still running, and only one former big junket in Macau under investigation for criminal fraud (compare with less severe compliance mistakes) against the party.
In total then, the politicians have a long way to go to "kill" the golden goose, but they do continue to throw rocks at it of late (makes you wonder if "they" have hedge fund pals short for a day or two more? LOL)... and should have given a bit more thought and care to the new "politically sensitive" comments on ~"gee, in a couple of years we will review how the concessionaires have done with diversifying away from just gaming, and, depending on how things are going up through our 'mid term review', maybe we will review our tax policy then too."
Based on Leong's Tac's previous public relations efforts and visible policy leanings, it has been easy to say he "gets" what Macau needs to continue developing the economy, tax revenues and employment... He was a math major in college but the news from the press conference yesterday reflects a basic lack of understanding of economics. Someone ought to send him some of Art Laffer's baseline curve charts/thesis on what happens to collected revenue (and derivatively, capital investment and employment) when taxes are increased...
Then maybe someone can sit down with Tac and show him a comparison of what Macau has now (taxes and revenues) and to reduced taxes happening in Manila and elsewhere in the AP and what Abe is likely to do in Japan. Butching policy in Macau would be shortsighted.
That said, a few percentage points on gaming revs doesn't materially change the picture in Macau -- at least not for model citizen MPEL as Studio city comes into focus.
Tac's running commentary has been very supportive of the gaming industry and he very recently showed responsiveness with LVS' approvals for Parisian getting done within a week of his swear in, and offered up favorable commentary discussing the ongoing economic development associated with the new "casino properties" (incl Studio City) coming on line this year, all of which has been encouraging with regard to thoughtful policy, and even moreso given SC's best in class "diversification."
Yet last week Leong Tac's q&a with local press made it clear that the new leadership in macau is apparently not ready to commit on a few policy items prior to review, seemingly posturing to ensure that even projects currently under development bend towards offering "diversified entertainment" apart from primary focus on gaming operations. He told reporters that they generally intend to continue with ave of 3% new table policy through 2022 (old news, but these are not laws or even rules and are rather policy statements they have not enforced since started in 2012, yet if played out would mean that the eight new properties under construction would get an average of only 60 tables per new property -- a result obviously at odds with the "fair and reasonable" concept all developers are counting on). Tac also said they will leave open the topic of whether to modify current gaming revenue tax policy.
Separately, another topic in the Macau media over the weekend revisited prior calls (union leadership pushing?) to have the 6 concessionaires perhaps have a new entrant in the form of a Nationalized (Macau) owned casino. The buzz around this suggests advantaging Chinese-owned enterprise(s) vs those owned by [US] interests.
These topics are less than supportive of Macau, its economy, employment (current and planned) and the companies developing the current $25B queue of casino properties in Cotai. Hopefully the exec teams will have clarity on the Q4 calls (50% hedged until then)
here's more on VIP junket curtailment from another article, including concern from a new committee formed by Macau's brand new finance minister that junket curtailment is going to cost Macau citizens their quality jobs and at least temporarily clip Macau tax revenue... for the sake of Macau's economy, good to see that reduced "egg" production from the Golden Goose (i.e.,taxes on Macau gaming revenue) is now causing some rethinking on the effects of crimping junket play.
Although Galaxy,MGM, WYNN and others have far more to lose than MPEL (where 95% of its ebitda from mass play on Macau).
"David Group joined other junket operators including Suncity Group and Hengsheng Group in expanding to markets beyond Macau as the city’s casinos last year suffered their first annual decline in revenue amid Chinese President Xi Jinping’s continuing battle on corruption. The overseas plan is also part of the company’s strategy to follow the government’s guidelines to develop the city into a global tourism destination, Ng said.
Macau’s casino regulator had received notice of one junket operator that canceled its operating license so far this year, according to a statement from the office of the Secretary for Economy and Finance Lionel Leong, posted on the [govt] website today.
The government is “extremely concerned” about developments in the casino industry and has set up a team to follow up on possible job cuts by junket operators or casinos, and it may also review and modify industry rules including on the licensing of junkets if needed, the statement added.
The Chinese government’s clampdown on corruption and extravagance has cut David’s high-end clients’ spending on gambling tables, he said. The group expects the casino industry to recover from the fourth quarter as more resorts open, boosting customer traffic and revenue, Ng said.
David Group, which also runs a travel company, owns private jets and luxury cars [now plans to take clients to other AP venues, incl Manila].
Anyone who is actually studying MPEL's business plan knows that 95% of MPEL's adj ebitda was from mass gaming and that junket-related VIP play has less to do with MPEL's ebitda generation than any other company operating in Macau... Further, David Group does not have any junket rooms in MPEL's properties, but at odds qwith reports last week that they were closing ALL 7 rooms they had on Macau, they have now confirmed closing only 3 of their 7 Macau cage rooms at WYNN and Sands properties... fun quotes from David Group in the Bloomberg articles this weekend though.
"David Group is shutting three of its seven rooms that cater for high-end players at casinos, it said in a statement on Saturday. The company, which runs rooms at casinos including those operated by Sands China Ltd. and Wynn Macau Ltd. (1128), is taking the action as part of a re-organization prompted by an industry downturn, Frank Ng, the company’s director of corporate communications, said by phone.
“We’re adjusting our business strategy; this is a general trend in the industry,” Ng said. “We’re hibernating. Once we wake up, we can restart.” The company can reopen the rooms when the market conditions improve," he said...
The Chinese government’s clampdown on corruption and extravagance has cut David’s high-end clients’ spending on gambling tables, he said. The group expects the casino industry to recover from the fourth quarter as more resorts open, boosting customer traffic and revenue, Ng said...
David Group is taking more wealthy customers to Asian centers with more relaxed visa approval process, such as Manila, Vietnam and South Korea, Ng said. David takes its VIPs shopping and sightseeing, and allows them to gamble at its private rooms in local casinos, he said. As part of its marketing strategies to draw gamblers, David Group publishes a lifestyle magazine in China to promote its brand. It also has a film company."
vegasbaby/doyour homework and all the rest...
Another new alias here?
You might want to check the HK listings before making such uninformed comments. and try to limit yourself to just 7-8 aliases here while you hype mgm, the worst-positioned and most overvalued of all the publicly-traded casino companies. But thanks for cheering us up with your "analysis". LOL
Everyone reading here who can speak English understands the many factors that caused the group underperformance over the last 9 months... but most also understand why MPEL has SIGNIFICANTLY outperformed the group over the last few years... ans more importantly, why MPEL is the best positioned of ALL of the Asian gaming companies looking to the future. While you obviously struggle with catalysts influencing the shares, what matters to FUTURE share price performance is what will happen in the FUTURE, not over the last 9 months as the group reset has taken place.
now off you go to ignore with your other 9 aliases...
Xi Jinping's speech on corruption last week also shed more light on the reality that political foes and entrenched politicians he wants to ensure have no office or sideline power are the target of his "institutionalized" antigraft campaign. These comments underscore MPEL's CEO comments last week that Macau is not the target of Xi's efforts.
"In the speech, Xi cited for the first time the names of Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the party’s Politburo Standing Committee in charge of domestic security, and Ling Jihua, a former top aide of retired president Hu Jintao, as high-profile examples in his graft-busting efforts. These cases “demonstrated to the world the Communist Party has a head-on approach to problems and correcting mistakes,” Xi said, calling the effort “self-purifying.”
The risk of Xi’s anti-graft drive has “probably receded” since Zhou was formally put under investigation in July.
“For Xi, the most dangerous period was prior to July when he had to convince the leadership and the elder leaders of the party to get rid of Zhou and prosecute him,” he said.
In laying out goals and challenges for this year, Xi stressed the importance of institutionalizing his campaign. “Only by making it into a habit, a norm” can we deliver long-run and lasting impacts, he said.
Xi said this year’s anti-graft work would focus on strengthening official accountability mechanisms, keeping a closer eye on family members and close allies of potentially corrupt officials, and improving supervision of state-owned enterprises, a corruption-plagued area that saw hundreds of senior officials toppled...'
LOL at the new doyourhomework, one of 8-9 alias dope here? His "reality": "Macau gaming will fade just like Vegas," "3 years of declines and then level off at half today's level?" and Vegas is strong? He clearly doesn't understand either market. And what a conclusion: "could go up or down"... ebitda is 95% mass now, and run rate will double by the time Tower 5 is ramping.
A Turning Point in China’s Anti-Graft Campaign
A key phase of the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign has concluded
The political downfall of a former aide to Hu Jintao was finally confirmed some two years after a speeding Ferrari first crashed along a Beijing street in 2012. In a brief statement released last week, the Central Committee for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced that Ling Jihua, vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, had been indicted for “serious discipline violations.” Following the impeachments of Zhou Yongkang and Xu Caihou, Ling was the third high-profile politician to be ensnared in China’s anti-graft movement in 2014...
Fourth ‘Big Tiger’ Since Bo Xilai
That it has taken this long for Xi to close in on Ling can be explained by the more pressing need of purging the Chinese public security apparatus and China’s military of the influence of their previous officeholders. Towards that end, it was crucial that Xi focused his energies on reining in the Jiang loyalists – Zhou Yongkang and Xu Caihou – before opening up a new front against the CYL. Having systematically rooted out Zhou’s men within the state security bureaucracy in addition to consolidating his own status in the Central Military Commission (CMC), Xi has wasted no time in widening the anti-corruption campaign to include Hu’s protégé.
...the removal of Hu Jintao’s former right-hand man reaffirms the fact that Xi Jinping has more or less removed the final vestiges of influence his predecessor had retained. Similarly, the political shortcomings of Jiang Zemin’s clique also gives Xi an additional bargaining chip. This breaks the trend in contemporary Chinese politics in which party elders had continued to hold sway despite leaving office.
Xi is also unencumbered by the political gridlock caused by factional conflicts that marked the previous administration. With this initial phase of his anti-corru
Just a couple of weeks ahead of the quarterly call and updated outlook from the group and MPEL, it is terrific to see him emphasize the powerful catalysts in the mass market future of Macau (and the Philippines) just ahead for MPEL and also to dispel the bs noise on the 1Q15 comps and HK delisting. Surprised he did not take the chance to underscore that already 95% of MPEL's ebitda is from mass...
Also good to see the hysteria that built all week in Asian media over the potential for Mekkhala to become another "Super Typhoon" over the Philippines fade as the storm now looks to be more like merely a windy and heavy rain event, especially on the west (Manila) side of the islands.
Separately, Ho has said COD "Manila,without any advertising or marketing, is already exceeding our expectations [on the soft opening schedule].
Also separately now MPEL has confirmed the official Grand opening for COD Manila is February 2 -- two weeks before the CNY celebrations begin.
Everyone who wants out of the pool because Feb comps might not exceed last year's 42% YOY pop and before the many catalyst stream news starts hitting the tape ought to hurry... not much time left before MPEL's official revised outlook is filed.
Lots of excellent comments made here for those who are actually studying the story here . Ho's comments are a great recap of coming catalysts that are yet to be discounted in the share price.
He begins by talking about Studio city's diversification and tables... sees 400 initially for Studio City when it opens "mid year" he says.
Ho also comments on the yawn of the delisting and comments extensively about how pleased he is that MPEL has the manila concession. He also comes close to a rave about next comes Phase 2 at COD manila (a grand tower no doubt)... and notes that a second phase of Studio city is coming... with a quick comment that MPEL plans to hire 8000-10,000 people at Studio city now -- that is up quite a bit from from earlier estimates -- no doubt having a lot to do with the broad based "DIVERSIFICATION" they now are bringing.
He ends by saying there is no better place for expanding the business than Macau.
see grasia for rest of article
Great share and comments from you Dave!
As you note below, the ropeadope crowd is back on this board -- still amazed to think they believe it worthwhile trying to panic folks into selling out at the bottom ahead of the parade of upside ebitda catalysts coming for MPEL this year.
They and the media and "geniuses" among the confederacy of analysts not doing any real work on the sector are back to full press noise though, including Lisboa's prostitution monitoring that went on for over 12 months (under Xii's regime, to avoid prosecution one needs to be either pals with Xi or boyscout rules compliant as made loud and clear from Beijing), "visa" restrictions and "illicit money transfers" (contrast with legal VIP operations and money settlements) and the "corruption crackdown" which, as Lawrence called out this week, have nothing to with Macau's gaming, leisure and entertainment...
Glad to the confederacy spewing nothing but old news repeatedly before the market begins discounting the upcoming catalysts.
Goog the title below for the Barron's interview following Studio City news this week.
Melco's Ho Says New Resorts Will Help Lead Macau Recovery
Ho's comments are crystal clear on Macau. He saya 1H comps will be tough vs peak numbers last year [e.g., Jan was up 7% and Feb was up 42% yoy in 2014], Macau's overall 2H15 should be much better and he is optimistic that a strong 2H will overcome the negative comp for 1H. As a result, Ho says Macau GR for the full year should get back to positive (mid single digits) range as it jumps past weak comps 2H14.
Ho is in the cat bird seat on all of this as MPEL's room count will jump dramatically when Studio City opens, and MPEL's numbers should substantially outperform Macau's overall.
He clearly explains that the corruption crackdown is not aimed at Macau or HK -- rather, it is aimed at corrupt officials and those on the mainland living too large (flashy cars, etc) while acknowledging that the spotlight on such behavior has caused many wealthy players to maintain the low profile we've discussed here since last summer.
He also comments on COD Manila, sharing that it reminds him of early days on Macau adding that so far, without any marketing or advertising and even prior to the Grand Opening, COD Manila is "already exceeding expectations."
Thanks for the share here. Maybe a few Swiss players will start coming to Macau after today's cap elimination. LOL
Seriously though, other than the ggrasia article you shared a while back that two Macau companies have banned telephone betting (and maybe they all have by now), the Nomura guy is really simply repeating his comments from last summer, right? Other than formalizing corporate compliance, certainty of reviews of bank account activity and background checks, there have been no promulgated "new" restrictions since then to my knowledge.
Bain's "pure play" comment must be wrt U.S. listed companies. The Macau-based subs listed in HK on the other 3 companies listed in the US market are all "pure plays" on Macau.
Good to see Bain repeat his "bottoming" view a few times since he shared his "look back moment" perspective last Fall... more importantly, good to see Morgan Stanley's brightening outlook (~"recovery should be rapid") repeated again this week -- that analyst team has a lot more weight than Sterne Agee and their departure from the analyst group's gloomy sentiment is notable given that sentiment toward the group is awful as regurgitated endlessly by weak journalists and analysts in those outlets.
OT -- This morning Saudi Arabia says they are going to begin cutting production as offshore rigs shutdown... Looks like they are ready to ease into calling "uncle" on crushing out marginal producers and no where to go with excess world supply as China has some 100 or so VLCCs storing crude for future advantage -- here's a guess (LOL): shorts on the oil complex into the meat grinder today.
You must be referring to the Shanghai scene, not Hong Kong... and those easing out of condos in see-through buildings may be making a wise allocation change despite the running program changes to assure relative stability in China's realty markets --- both residential and commercial. Chanos must be shredded that after calling a "collapse" of China's economy for the last 4 years, things are now being reset on the most stable pathway possible for the master planned economy as the shift from production/export to consumtion and service based economy continues in leaps and bounds, all while China stockpiles the cheapest oil seen since 2008, a benefit it will meter out to commercial and consumer interests alike over the next several quarters and years if the current oil market turmoil runs a few more months and enough storage tanks get built in a hurry... per Bloomberg and other objective sources, some 80+ VLCC are full and bobbing in Chinese waters, and four new 1M barrel storage tanks are being hurried along to have a place to park the fire sale oil while it lasts.
Your central planners are also taking steps to expand credit and liquidity for real estate and commerce -- not contract it as diversionary alias dthe98 has been suggesting for months now. And the recent cross exchange provisions should serve to expand liquidity for China's capital markets... stay off leverage in chop markets and you'll be fine grasshopper.
4 thumbs down in 3 minutes? That's a lot of flailing for just one moron. LOL
Where's the other 5-6 aliases known to post here? LOL
blither blither blither... "Details" are troubling when one wants to blither glittering generalities huh d98. LOL Answer the questions and you will not be so lost. Get it?
I don't "deny Xi is committed to controlling capital outflows"... but the focus of his effort is not about Macau. To the contrary, he and the new regime in Macau are very pleased with Macau's progress and contribution to China and henqin and srrounds -- rather, they do not want crooks and Xi's political foes spending illicit money there or otherwise using illegal channels to transfer ill-gotten funds. THAT has nothing to do with rules compliant VIP tours or how Chinese who have legitimately accumulated wealth (Say Jack Ma for example) spend their recreational money. THAT is also why the large majority of the large VIP tours are still busy in cage rooms in Macau and why only 20-25% or so ov VIP has left -- a far cry from your bs that "VIP is gone and never coming back" and now you add "junket system is done" when it is STILL going along at 75%+ of peak last year.
You keep saying it is so, but there are no examples of where Beijing, Xi or anyone else is imprisoning anyone running tours or playing on them and complying with the rules involving VIP and money settlement. None.
And about your bs on "diversification"? You have posted at least 5 times on this alias on this topic on threads I have discussed MPEL and macau's status on this point. Read MPEL's press release from Monday and my posts on this and the table allocation topic over the last two weeks, and Adelson's recent press release on it and you will be enlightened -- Beijing and Macau's new regime are getting what they want, esp from MPEL at COD and Studio City soon to open as the model "gaming, tourism, entertainment and leisure resort."
As for further "diversification" efforts -- search the term "land bank" here for studied comments on that... Macau will never be a dancing elephant elephant in a tutu -- it is what it is
Waiting for your answers to rhetorical questions 1-5 posed to poser dthe98 -- notice he has no answers other than to sign in on multiple aliases to thumb down posts that call out bs? LOL
But here are a few more questions just for you since you apparently also think you are a hotel business expert. As those who do know a little about the hotel business, the seven questions below are very basic and easy to obtain answers to... the five questions posed to dthe98 on this thread -- and now you too -- require a depth of knowledge neither of you have demonstrated any capacity to answer.
1. Re "ADRs"... in MPEL's case, how tight are ADRs to rack rates?
2. How many serial quarters in a row has MPEL run above 95% occupancy?
3. What has been the ave occupancy rate over the last 3 quarters?
4. What is the trend turnaway rate for MPEL at COD Macau?
5. How many of these "casino plays," including the HK listed companies and the four listed in the US, have lower reliance on VIP tour play than MPEL?
6. How much of MPEL's premium mass is funded directly and very legally with MPEL vs through a tour operator?
7. (best for last) For your darling MGM, what percentage of their current adj ebitda emanates from their single property in Macau? On a per table basis, how does that compare to (a) Bellagio and (b) the totality of their Vegas Strip properties?
Can't wait to hear your attempt to answer these 12 fundamental questions... all things you ought to comprehend about what you are long or short if it is for more than beer money.
Me crazy? LOL
It is obvious for anyone who knows 101 about this sector, macau and Vegas that you have no clue what you are talking about -- at least dthe98 is intentionally trying to post diversionary dog #$%$. To elevate your knowledge, you might want to search the terms "Vegas resurgence" on this board and then consider that against your vacuous comments here.
Here's the simple summary though. Apart from whales flown in from China since 2007, gaming revenue is dead dead dead in vegas, relegated to MCE, CMAs and blue hairs pulling low $ slots (which are negative YOY if you study the data) and tourists playing peanut limit blackjack and that is why all the Vegas casinos are empty except during holidays and when all the college kids descend.
The Chinese whales (and Steve's "Latins" LOL) were flown in for May and June (30% YOY numbers and just 7% for July before going negative 12% (yes, minus 12%) YOY in August. Those high ceilings monolithic beasts just don't work now as MGM has learned the hard way after building 10 cathedrals and giving away City Center at SH expense.
But as I rhetorically torqued on dthe98s post, when you say "VIP is never coming back", you can't logically mean the 75-80% of peak 2013 VIP revenue that continued right on playing while the 25% left? First they'd have yet to "leave"... but will that happen? Unless/until then, one can't assess that said 80% is "never coming back." Where the Chinese VIP tour players (or any other serious players for that matter) are likely "never coming back" is to Vegas. Xi Jinping is hunting all those foxes that already left China (and used to play in vegas before macau and other Asian venues were around)... well, by that I mean his political enemies and others Beijing thinks illegally confiscated China's money and left. The "crooks"who stayed in china leapt off tall buildings or are in jail or shot - they aren't going back to play tables games anywhere, neither are their "private club" pals.
You keep on saying the same thing -- that VIP is not coming back -- do you mean the 75-80% still playing there on 9 or the 10 largest tours from 2012? They have not left, so when will they leave? Saying the same eraant comment over and over does not make it reality.
You might want to do a bit of reading on Xi Jinping's family wealth... those folks and Xi's friends must be in the 80% or so of peak VIP junket play that continues on abiding by the rules, not transferring "illicit funds" through any inappropriate venues, and not under investigation for wrongdoing...
Your comments on "50% VIP is too high" are interesting though... it would be fun to read your answers to these questions:
1. Galaxy remains heavily reliant on VIP tours and actually saw an increase in VIP revenue last Q. When will their VIP revenue go away?
2. On Macau last Q and consistent with trend, 95% of MPEL ebitda was from mass play -- not RCV in the cage rooms. Quick now: how much does ebitda go down by if 100% of RCV is gone from MPEL's results there?
3. After Studio City (phase 1 and 2) and Tower 5 at COD are up and running, how much of MPEL's adj ebitda will be from VIP?
4. When a baccarat player loses money that comprises "RC win" for the house, some 60% of that goes to the casino owner with the residual 40% going to Macau's gaming tax collector. There is nothing " illicit" about losing money in that venue or settling up that debt via rules compliant VIP tour operations -- but maybe you can explain how that somehow constitutes "a back door way to get money out of the red hot mainland"?
5. How do you square up your recurrent doomsday scenario regarding Macau's with the new CE and Finance chief for Macau sharing constructive comments at the microphone and in Beijing in recent weeks?
Since you obviously think you know a lot more than Lawrence Ho and Packer's comments would suggest they do about how things will unfold this year, your "analysis" ought to be educational.