I looked right in a magic crystal ball where people are gathering to chant about how "happy they are to be short MPEL."
coincidentally, up 35% would take this now value stock back to the 40w ema, whereupon it would become a "chart buy" for all of the "genius" advisory services.
Those with some sport and capital might want to do as the !#F filers did last Q with their capital... As note prior, 11 of the largest 15 and 21 of the largest 25 holders at the last filing date either initiated or added to their positions between $27 and $36.
Those concerned about further downside might want to review prior threads re hedging one's downside exposure... but today's little double bottom retest appears to have run into the buzzsaw of MPEL's share buyback plan.
Love "Jane Tate's" (another one of Shirley Mason's special "friends"?) post today... "happy [Sybil says] to finally be short"... Shirley's boss, a little fella from Cambodia?, should have shorted WFM a month ago (up 35% since) or even little old BABA this morning -- she could have caught the bottom in those too. With varying timelines, that is what a head and shoulders pattern fail looks like when it resolves to the upside after testing key support levels. Again, have a look at a good log chart comparing MPEL WYNN and WFM... better yet, index the values to MPEL as the baseline. ROTFL
goog the tilte to see the article I referenced yesterday... yhoo lopped off half of the excerpts...
good to see MPEL buying meaningful shares during eaxch of the last three days, on top of the 1m shares they bought in sep around $27... apparently they don;t agree with the analysts nbo buysiders even bother to read, let alone Shuli and Jim detar... and certainly not the idoits posting up mounds of stupidity here.
Did I mention that after everyone except committed 13F filers threw in the towel on WFM the stock rallied 35% over the last month or so?
what is Xi Jinping going to do for Macau other than wave his hand that Macao is a fun destination for everyone except those committing fraud against China? We'll find out Monday when he flies into Macau for the celebration of the Portugal handover... and for those with a historical perspective on Xi's last visit, it seems likely he'll be pleased with the progress since his last speech there in 2009... especially the contributions of MPEL, and LVS and WYNN in their existing and new properties under development.
MPEL's buyback plan is finally engaging with some serious activity over the last three days.
Over the last three days they have repurchased the equivalent of 411,600, 627937, and 800,000 ADS shares, for a total of 1,839,537 shares. Yesterday's buying was the cheapest with a blended cost of $24.33.
Might they have a bit more insight into what happens than does Shuli Renn and the confederacy of "geniuses" unhedged short down here?
The "retest" of the recent low referenced here a few times is front row again today. With Xi Jinping coming on Monday (what if anything will be in the gift basket/wave of his hand?), a week ahead of the new Macau leadership being officially sworn in, will this group and stock begin a sharp reversal sometime soon such as that seen on WFM after its extended selloff many sellsiders suggested it would never rebound from (WFM is up some 35% from the low a month ago), or is the malaise engulfing all Macau names -- and most beta/high growth stocks for that matter -- going to continue past year end pending 2015 catalysts being discounted more than not at all?
We took off the pair short on WYNN this morning...
Given that Packer and Ho's companies own 67%+ of the stock and that other professional ownership is another 25% or so of ownership, only around 5% of ownership here is in retail hands and that most mutual funds have oct 31 year ends, any serious tax loss selling is already done. Moreover, many hedge funds have offsetting box hedge gains that complicate tax outcomes.
Might retail holders consider selling their shares as the stock continues meandering along the rocky bottom and perhaps even retests the recent low at $23.50? Anyone who has net taxable gains in an individual account should be consulting with a competent tax advisor, on whatever short term or long term capital gains and losses they have this year. MPEL, as with all of the gaming stocks, is now down from where it was at the start of the year (and certainly where I commented here the "easy money has likely been made this year" and that "at $43, it is a good time to be careful and consider who was selling/hedging gains and the quality of the [momentum] buyers chasing it higher.
Sentiment is now entirely flipped around though, and Jinping's visit is next week (31 days wash period is a long time from now) , along with glad-handing by the new regime in macau,and both understand Macau's competence/value to China and the buildout of surrounds.
So will MPEL (and WYNN, another great story) soon climb, perhaps rapidly, out of the malaise gripping most ALL high beta/growth stocks, or will they continue to drag along the rocky bottom well into next year pending a clearer picture emerging for the future of GGR as the 8 new Integrated Resorts come on line? Those who have access to quality chart services might do a comparison of MPEL and WYNN charts on a monthly, 10-year (log) scale, in comparison to what has happened with WFM in the last 30 days. That is another great management& LT growth story... WFM is up over 35% in the last month... might the set up for MPEL/WYNN/LVS be next for sharp reversals?
Opportunities in Hengqin
Among Macao’s many challenges is the shortage of land.
The development of the adjacent 106 sq km Hengqin New Area in Zhuhai might offer more space for Macao to embark on new ventures. The University of Macau has been the first to seize the opportunity, building its campus in Hengqin.
Leong believes Hengqin can attract investment, expertise and human resources from Macao, in the areas of leisure, entertainment, hospitality services and the management of large facilities.
“The new area has been designated as a model of co-operation and innovation. It is a new platform for the upgrading of industries on this side of the Pearl River Delta,” he added.
Political reform in Macao is another subject which Leong has spoken about on many occasions.
Leong calls for the building of a broad consensus in political reform, so that people from all sectors will be represented. “Politics is the art of compromise. In Macao, in particular, I would say unequivocally that compromise is a practical necessity.”
Leong’s interest in civil affairs was apparent as early as 1997, when he set up the think tank, Research Centre for Sustainable Development Strategies. “I care about the interests of the community. I try to do something, to be someone who can help. So I take up public office, for the people of Macao,” he said.
fwiw, it seems Macau's new finance minister understands the importance of gaming and ensuring "reasonable and fair" policy mandates to the economic well-being of Macau and surrounds... he should prove to be way more effective than what McKnight called "suitable" -- he should be "excellent" and just what Macau needs to continue developing itself as a premier international leisure and gaming destination for years to come.
This guy takes office on December 20 and seems like a quality guy and excellent replacement for exiting Francis Tam.
Excerpts from the article:
... Leong’s business instincts made him look for greener pastures and quickly spotted the need for commercial laundry services for the fast-growing hotel sector. His factory already had an in-house laundry facility, but the switch to a much-expanded operation required a conviction that such a service had growth potential.
In the beginning of 2009, Leong restructured Smartable Holding Limited, a 280 million pataca modern laundry operation in the industrial park in Coloane, a mere five-minute drive from Cotai, where all the new, big casinos are. The 24 hour round-the-clock facility was initially capable of serving over 20,000 hotel rooms and washing up to 75,000 pieces of uniform daily.
“People asked me why I made such a heavy bet on an industrial laundry unit. My answer is simple: because there are hotels which need this kind of service. If not, I would not have made such a big investment.”
Having successfully reinvented his business, from manufacturing to services, Leong can speak with conviction on a much-talked-about subject: Macao’s economic diversification. For many years, the community has been discussing ways to expand the city’s economy beyond gaming.
“When we talk about diversification, we have to consider our pool of talent, capacities, areas of expertise and other advantages. What is our edge?”... Macao’s growth into a boom city has occurred in the blink of an eye. Since it opened its casino market to foreign bidders in the early 2000s, the city has emerged as “a leisure and travel destination for punters and families as well. Macao is also now known for its fine dining, top entertainment, and of course, its casino business,” he said.
China’s support for Macao is naturally crucial to the city’s success. “First, there is no legal gambling elsewhere in China. Second, Beijing has all
Jinping will likely come and be gone in less than 3 hours, long enough to walk around Cotai to see the new properties underway since his last visit and then make a quick speech about how beautiful Macau is and that everyone should enjoy it as a great international tourism and relaxation venue that is also the world's premier gaming destination.
MPEL opens COD Manila (phase 1) on Dec 14th assuming the typhoon does no serious damage to that side of the island, and Studio City (phase 1) and its 1100 rooms mid-2015, about a year ahead of WYNN Palace.
you and your little tryst pal must have both gone to the same jr high school; you are almost as pedantic, but while much funnier, your comments are equally wasted space.
As for my "endless" posts here? Um okay mr cut and paste specialist... You posted more nonsense today dissing toolboy than I have made here in the last 12 months. LOL
And as for flip trades? Although yourbestfriend can use even an idiot's help, we don't need your help allocating capital Forest, and while the second one spent a few peanuts, the first and the third were very green if you can read. Print them out and post them on your desk so you can figure it out. And note they were posted as done, not with prior period print. The point being made for anyone with IQ above 90 was that WYNN is way oversold now too, even MGM is now dislocated as to valuation.
Below the pedantic #$%$ head here makes an idiot out of himself (as he does every post) diverting attention from the Xi visit, a topic of real significance to the macau names... Xi Jinping can and likely will change the group valuation with the gift basket and wave of his hand as discussed on the subject threads.
Again, prior to that we hope the short putzes will take this down below $160, low enough for more than flip trades for pizza money. As for the deleted posts two not one), that was done to delete this moron's drivel and blithering commentary with another board tool here -- none of which was relevant to the thread.
As made clear from our comments and time of the subject posts, incidental as it were, we did three flip trades on WYNN this week -- all small and long. Results: a small gain on the first flip, a small loss on the 2nd one (the first flip trade long on WYNN ever in the red), and then this small gain as the shares bounced, right on plan yesterday. Those who ar not idiots can see that when we talk about trades, we do it contemporaneously, not after the fact... same as done here and on MGM and LVS many times.
Good to see them make a statement on their view of the current valuation... that optimism is reassuring, particularly in light of pahse 1 of COD Manila's soft opening in 9 days and Studio City (phase 1) opening next summer.
A couple of posts on this topic on the MPEL board.
Good to see WYNN shaking off the putz shorts. Out of 3rd round trip this week up $2.15... special thanks to the tools staying short here. LOL If the algo chumps will take it on down to $160 we'll go large and for longer than a quick flip... unless Steve is going to jail, WYNN is a great bet for the next 6 months... easy to see the stock back above $200 in a hurry once Xi decides enough is enough on the "tigers and flies" corruption campaign in Beijing and Shanghai.
Also good to see MPEL buying more shares at $25 on top of the recent 1m shares at ~$27... seems they are optimistic about the future these days...COD Manila's (Phase 1) soft opening is in 9 days; Studio City (Phase 1) on Cotai in ~9 months.
Lots of quality articles on AP gaiming this week on ggrasia website... but the soft opening date is now set.
Read the article if you care, but interesting to see Lawrence Ho emphasize this is the "soft opening," before the Grand Opening prior to the Chinese New Year, of "the first phase" of COD Manila. As discussed here early last summer, they and partner Sy, the biggest, wealthiest commercial real estate developer in the Manila and MPEL partner on COD Manila, the second phase will consume much more real estate and will be more of an MPEL signature complex than the four building (rather blah) complex they took over from the stalled developer a few years ago.
This should be great for MPEL, and good to see that the share data in Macau shows MPEL's share is flattish at 13%, without much clarity that tables reclassified to VIP is actually the fat margin direct credit premium mass. Meanwhile, WYNN is looking weak as VIP ex the MPEL sanitized numbers is only 8% for Nov and we know most of that is VIP margin business. If the trendlines continue another week, the quant values will be about back in sync, meaning back to the set up we saw in 2009 and then again in 2012 for MPEL to outpace the group higher. Been having fun trading small chunks of WYNN, but down a bit more pre Xi visit is a shot to go large -- unless WYNN effd up with Tam or such, long term betting with Steve is a good upside bet.
Good to see the group coming in to MPEL's hammered numbers... scraping along the bottom is not much fun, but maybe Jinping's visit, along with the telegraphing from his Beijing frontrunner Lei this week, is a nice sign that Beijing is going to hold out MPEL exceptional entertainment with the likes of the water shoe and, within another 8-10 months or so, the cinematically themed PHASE ! of Studio City is EXACTLY the kind of "diversified IR" offering Beijing wants EVERY company to put together for mass tourism/family attractions in addition to world class spas and casinos.
Many of China's wealthy have funds throughout the AP region, away from mainland China scrutiny. I read what this guy wrote here several times and get quite get through this:
"contrary to consensus belief, Macau’s slowdown is not so much driven by anti-corruption as it is by a structural tightening in the liquidity of the high-rollers’ source of wealth"... huh? Every ceo and the execs around them have said the crimp on VIP is principally foxhole mentality out of concern for being seen as too high profile while the 75,000+ politicans and their henchmen buddies have been under review... None of that does not have much to do with structured financing done with real estate conduit trusts and similar, nor does it have anything to do with the high profile defaults of hose jobs shadow banking trusts that have defaulted.
The fact remains that the vast majority of high rollers touring with the big junkets, and some 80% of peak GGR have kept right on playing in Macau, ostensibly unconcerned that they or any one they have done business with while rising to be amongst the new mint millionaires and billionaires has anything to worry about while Xi's "tigers and flies" corruption reviews wend their way through bank and brokerage statements.
Does anyone else enjoy the irony of this guy's name with the former head of security in the communist party running China? Zhou (namesake or relative?) is being prosecuted for massive fraud against the Chinese govt, taking Chen, one of the largest industrialists in China, right along with him. Rooftop watch in effect...
But the "analysis" goes on to say that new openings on macau will increase visitation but maybe not
GGR? No S? LOL Someone ought to advise him that direct credit players are set up with the house, likely paying off monthly debt via wires from around the AP region where primary bank accounts handle the money (not some imaginary shadow banking credit source from the mainland). Big junket VIP is not in the alley either
Beyond stomping out the HK nonsense that is immovable wrt granting democratic nominations/suffrage, the Macau Gift Basket needed for the good of China, Macau and these Macau stocks is really just two things:
1. Corruption clarification
Wave of his hand that he is not out to ruin the principal attraction of Macau, legalized gaming under China's domain. A simple statement that the only people he does not want gaming are the politicians and their cohorts who are defrauding China and anyone else who is trying to subvert Chinese law.
2. Policy Directives Rolling Forward
Wave of his hand that the new Macau regime and Beijing itself will continue to promote as much diversified entertainment venues as possible with all new properties built on the precious little land left to develop in Macau, and maybe even a little nod to the idea that MPEL's Studio City and COD, as well as WYNN's new lake, and LVS' serious MICE facilities are exactly what they are talking about... but also a clear statement that nonsense such as the ridiculous 3%/year table limit nonsense will be replaced by allocations that are "thoughful, reasonable and fair" to the entities developing some $25B worth of job and commerce/taxation enhancement in the 8 properties currently under construction on Cotai.
If he does those two things with authority, the group slam will quickly resolve to the upside...because VIP tours will light up the reservation desk in a hurry, and in plenty of time to ensure the CNY celebrations go well.
i don't know if your reply to my post was deleted by you or yhoo just now, but my reply to your comment above:
"Great. Now if we could just get GGR in Macau to stop going down by 20% a month this would be something to get excited about."
had nothing to do with COD Manila's delay, which has been officially, not "surprisingly" pushed back a few times since they signed up Hyatt. Further, Ho has said a few times that the buildings they took over are not what they would have built for MPEL, but they are going to make it special and work, even though it required two significant budget increases and several delays. I'll also point out that last year's major typhoon that bashed the middle of the Philippines likely has some disruptive effects on everything under construction throughout the islands.
Again too, I am not saying all of the bs noise elements I cited above had no effect -- they were all clearly part of the FUD going on for Macau tourism and GGR, but most have faded. As I had noted many times here, the real GGR impairment (as now confirmed by all of the key execs running the US listed companies except Pansy Ho) has been the corruption crackdown and the macro economic concerns for China's millionaires and billionaires and the nonsense table limits policy of Tam and the former regime.... all the rest of the lame media and analysts' running negative commentary is on fade (except for McKnight, Karen Twang. Shuli baby and Detar at IBD). Kind of like our little girl on AOL here, they seemingly can't overcome pig-headed stupidity.
Xi Jinping's gift basket of border crossing and longer hours is good, but the policy change really needed is to share his embrace of macau as a GAMING destination without peer, that wealthy patrons relaxing/gaming there is terrific, and that table limit nonsense is now over with "fair and reasonable" table allocations going to be the norm.
And might SC phse 1 be delayed a few months? I'll suggest that may well happen, and BFD.
toast, it is a darling review... and you do realize Macau GGR is not "going down by 20% per month," right? That would be bad...thankfully, that is not what is happening.
No, instead, what is happening for the last two months is down by 20% year over last year's record results which still had all the momentum of the new properties opening/ramping on the Cotai strip, and did have not 75,000 people investigated on an as yet unannounced China-wide, politically-charged "corruption crackdown" now drawing to a close and STILL NOT IMPAIRING 80% of VIP!
We can leave out the real estate market and banking system tightening (now in reverse) drjack and I discussed on several threads last year, all the noise Jim Chanos was making about about how the sky falling China, all the nonsense noise about $25B of UnionPay card fraud per Shuli Renn, IBD and Reuters that was really more like $400k of cash & 12 guys operating unauthorized card swipers out of their trunks, Hong Kong suffrage protest that is not going to change immovable policy for another 50 years, visa "restrictions" that mean nothing, shifting of tables between premium mass and VIP, lack of room supply for the top properties running full on record ebitda, moronic reporting such as the IBD piece yesterday suggesting that "corruption crackdown on VIP operators" (talk about ridiculous reporting!), smoking rooms and the other 10 or so items of media noise.
Did I mention that none of that is impairing 80% of VIP and COD is still running 100% occupancy and has been since last year? Yeah... and the COD turnaway rate is stil over 30% on average, meaning they say yes to their own flagged out stay and play folks that are most valuable to the house in terms of rack room rates, eating in the complex and going to the shows between table games and machine play.
The macau stocks are setting up to be darlings next year... shades of mid 2012 (run through March 2014) as new properties came on then ramped -- and will next year.
Charisse Chuidian, City of Dreams Manila vice president for public relations, says: “With the luxury dining experiences offered in our three hotels – Crown Towers, Nobu and Hyatt, plus three entertainment venues including the innovative live and digital play space with DreamWorks which will be the first in the world, and two world-renowned nightclub brands Pangaea and Chaos, City of Dreams Manila will raise the bar in leisure and entertainment offerings. It will not be long before we offer a sneak peak in December, before a grand opening prior to Chinese New Year in 2015.”
From one of the most incredible spa treatments I’ve ever had at the Crown Spa to a sexy, acrobatic cabaret with amazing performers from around the world to diamond-studded tourbillon collector watches, City of Dreams has something for everyone. And excitingly, it is what we can expect in City of Dreams Manila.
As the trip came to a close, we were chuckling about how we were running out of superlatives to describe the entire experience. Stunning. Spectacular. Awe-inspiring. Extraordinary. Extravaganzaaaaa…. (cue drumroll and jazz hands, please.) Whatever it may be, I’m just glad that pretty soon I won’t have to travel far to get lost in my dreams. "
note: This article was published last weekend in the Philippines Star Travel section; the author's last line references that COD Manila, home to the Philippines Star, will soon open to the public.
Jade Dragon was such a remarkable experience. Each dish was artfully presented, crafted with care to give the cleanest, most sophisticated Chinese cuisine I’ve had. We were in fact in agreement that in comparison to another famous Chinese restaurant in Hong Kong that had three Michelin stars, Jade Dragon was far superior and deserved being awarded two more.
Their Jade Dragon dumpling was the plumpest prawn and juiciest lobster encased in a paper-thin wrapper, full of flavor and there was no need for dipping sauce. A succulent Iberico roast pork is caramelized with fresh honeycomb and slow-roasted to melt-in-your mouth perfection with dark bittersweet charred crispy bits. Hot and sour soup that was far from your usual slop of mystery ingredients. Here, each julienned vegetable is suspended in a rich, spicy, tangy broth like glorious celebratory confetti. And who knew fried rice could be so elegant? Greaseless fluffy grains of rice happily danced together with a symphony of conpoy, roast goose and vegetables topped with lush scallops.
What mini-bar? As Alicia Sy put it: “that’s a maxi-bar!” Hennessy Paradis Cognac ready to be savored at the Chairman’s Suite
And because that wasn’t enough in the evening we were treated to a special wine pairing menu at the Michelin-starred Tasting Room by chef Galliot. French innovation using the best ingredients available, like sevruga caviar, tuna belly and quail. I loved his new take on the classic bistro French onion soup with a seriously savory mushroom velouté that I could have happily drank on its own. However, the real piece de resistance was the jaw-dropping delicious chocolate and banana millefeuille. Sweet, salty, bitter, crunchy, velvety, creamy, crisp… It was chocolate in all forms and textures. Pleasure on a plate.
The people’s pleasure