Marty, I was trying to recall if you had posted on a topic other than the MSC tables several times... yes, you have... grins
Those who did some work on Cosmo, or simply read my comments here, would have likely been comfortable MPEL was not a likely player as this thread covered. And even MGM and Packer's Crown Resorts was not there, leaving the party to the vulture player.
Again, we think fretting that MSC will have trouble getting tables for what will be a fabulous IR is wasted sweat, too. Ho and his upod "Asian Way" is entirely likely to deliver a solid table allotment for MSC.
An "IR" is more than shows and MCE facilities -- macau is about taxing GGR. Regarding tables for MSC, excerpt from an earlier post:
"On the table topic... the new conceptual annual limit of 3% table growth kicked in for the annual periods beginning on March 31.2013. Repeating myself, the "limit" is not a legislated, enforceable max, and that is not their intent. To make the point, for the first 9 months of that initial 12 month guideline limit, tables granted exceeded the "maximum" by some 50%... clearly Macau's intent is to emphasize that they want more than just big casinos going up with all new property development, and we think MSC's cinema theme will include not just cinema but also the Dreamwork's piece as is now announced for Manila and likely other entertainment ideas which Ho has already pioneered at COD (e.g., dancing water shows).
Steve Wynn has been a brilliant operator for many years... but we were surprised to see him so openly say he is "highly confident" in getting ~500 tables for the new Cotai property opening in 2016...
Lawrence Ho has previously made mention of the "Asian way" on this topic... and our hunch they'll get a big chunk of tables for MSC is let's say up there with our "hunch" that the stock buyback would be resoundingly approved (that is now done at over 99% approval). MSC as with Manila is all about hitting the buttons on "something other than just gaming" diversification consistent with developing Macau's broader appeal for new IR approvals... but the decision makers also know the companies need to be able to offer gaming for patrons -- it is Macau after all."
Today's MSC news is more from Ho's upod "Asian Way":
"We look forward to working closely with the Macau government to bring this unique property to realization."
WE are call it "HIGHLY CONFIDENT" that MPEL will get a big table allotment for MSC.
LOL re the Barrons comment...
Certainly the AGGREGATE GGR last week was disappointing after running better than 15% for the obscure "estimates" through the first 26 days of May. Yet given the surging visitation numbers ytd, we suspect we'll soon learn that the four U.S. exchange listed companies are all making further progress on mass play revenues and percent of total GGR for each company. We doubtGGR is going to 0 or worse in the "sky is falling on china and macau" thinking, and think Ho knows a bit more about his upod that GGR for macau will be at least 15% or so for the year. As shown in the table below, we can see it is 15.8% ytd.
The mystery of the last 6 days of May will remain until clarified by the companies, but as serious observers know, MPEL's primary focus and the source of 75% of MPEL's ytd revenue is mass play and it is best in class on this metric. While Macau's overall GGR is still over 65% VIP, everyone else is trying to please Macau officials with destination/entertainment resort emphasis, and no one is doing that better than MPEL. The stepped up budget on MSC note this morning is entirely consistent with that.
We also agree with the reality understood by those who know the business and Macau that getting caught up in the bs of wringing one's hands over weekly numbers and fears that ebitda will be materially harmed over any longer times series is a fool's game.
Monthly Gross Revenue (MOP) from Games of Fortune in 2014 and 2013
Monthly Gross Revenue Accumulated Gross Revenue
2014 2013 Variance 2014 2013 Variance
Jan 28,739 26,864 +7.0% 28,739 26,864 +7.0%
Feb 38,007 27,084 +40.3% 66,746 53,948 +23.7%
Mar 35,453 31,336 +13.1% 102,199 85,284 +19.8%
Apr 31,318 28,305 +10.6% 133,517 113,589 +17.5%
May 32,354 29,589 +9.3% 165,871 143,178 +15.8%
fwiw, we just added another chunk at $33.40... we think the panic/short crowd should go ahead and bail while you can still do so below $35.
My superiors? Actually, we are brilliant at managing money, and vastly superior at tooling on morons. LOL
And you and redleaf aka putzbreath ARE a f moron... read the rest of the thread to see our documented trips in and out on this story mgmt has butchered repeatedly. This will teach you that we, unlike you, have minted every trip. Not go sit in the corner and stew in your wet, smelly pants, you stupid F.
We almost went in large last week on DNKN, but blew a small trade out this afternoon instead... concerned that KKD would screw the pooch again with mismanagement.
Maybe some of you clueless short putz f heads will go short DNKN down to $42 for us tomorrow... we will go large on it if so as DNKN is vastly better managed and solid financially. LOL
Fun thread to review for those trying to understand what happened here... it was all plain to see it coming.
Hey "net_stocker"... it has been fun, huh?
How is that $10 and ME being "out of touch" coming along tonight? LOL
Here's the thing, next time someone with superior knowledge and obviously detailed analysis takes time to explain what is happening, consider that sometimes an opposing view are worth considering.
Thanks to all those blind and otherwise clueless cheerleaders who chased this. We really did try to turn on the lights.
The share are in for some grief, but for the company's employees, thank goodness for all that debt -- something to work with in ch 13.
This MCE progress took place over the period Barrons and all the rest of the weak sauce jornalists out there were being fed bs by the hedge funbds trying to push these stocks down harder than the broad swoon taking down all beta/high growth stocks (and the momentum names that needed to come in hard). but check out this data set and grin to think more progress is coming as the infrastructure pieces come together and the Macau companies actually begin emphasizing MCE activities midweek.
"Figures released by the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) show that there were 276 Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE) events in the first quarter of the year: 20 percent more than during the same period last year. These events attracted 304,000 participants and attendees, showing a significant rise of 50 percent year-on-year. On average, the duration of each event was 2.1 days. The total floor area used for these events has reached 223,000 square meters. The 263 meetings and conferences held in Q1 2014 received 40,000 participants, of which 81 percent were participants in conferences and corporate meetings."
As you can see, the pm short the stocks must be desperate to pay such weak sauce morons to "bash" the stocks here. LOL
You made it clear you use both this and the Vegasbaby dufus alias on the MPEL board, but you really ought to try try to limit your stupidity to one alias per thread. Just think, that way you'll only reveal half as much stupidity! ROFLOL
As for your pumping bs, pumping is done by morons with nothing to say -- you are the expert at that. See prior reply to your other dip S alias below... We have owned the stock on this core since $12. LOL
Now off you go to ignore with this dip S alias.
solid thread/comments by grftt, drjack and tbery here... thanks.
We continue to think MPEL will be in the group of companies awarded a Japanese venue(s) when Japan is ready... but COD Manila is a brilliant opportunity for MPEL to make strategic progress growing their own AP GGR by leading the way with by far the most important IR in Manila, which despite the ongoing issues with overcoming the typhoon damage to their economy last year, continues to lead the Philippines to economic growth in the 7 % range as reported late last week.
To grftt's comments on the ethnic groups that will game in Manila, fun for longs to have a look at the job openings for COD Manila now. In addition to Japanese speaking butlers, they now have several open positions butler/concierge/customer service, etc. for Mandarin-, Taiwanese-, Japanese- and Korean-speaking applicants. Seems pretty clear they expect to cater well to VIP and premium mass players in those 300 new suites they want to have open before Golden Week (October 1).
Same on the VIP notes... but VIP was still well in excess of 50% of Macau GGR last year and is ytd for the group even though MPEL and LVS are moving increasingly toward mass composition to their great benefit. I also agree Macau growth is going to surprise to the consensus for the year... perhaps by a bunch as it did last year.
The rest of my comments make reference to 6-7 other articles on Macau MCE expansion this year, China's economy, shipping/KKR, and banking support related updates, and I think it is very interesting that KKR is now stepping into china hard as they obviously think it is a good time buy quality loans and shipping assets on the cheap. Subtle perhaps, but smart guys would not be doing that unless they see a good shot at volumes/pricing improving for them as new players in the developing market economy.
The article drjack posted commenting on Li's assurances that the central planners are ready to put some of that current account surplus to work on an accelerated basis is directly on point as well. They have flexibility and firepower to push growth/consumerism initiatives, and they are going to use it. Remembering that 18 of the last 20 centuries saw China's economy as largest world player and that it is soon to blow past the U.S. GDP again, 7% GDP sounds fabulous to me, and no doubt to the gaming companies who already see the forward bookings/MCE growth are comforted to think Ho's view of 15% GGR for Macau this year will prove to be conservative upod.
Goog title for article if interested, but between bank reserve relaxation and the highest pmi reading since December, it is becoming clear that the central planners are going to keep a foot on the gas to the extent needed to maintain broadening consumerism and job growth for the masses... all good news for their economic prosperity.
Meanwhile KKR has done two shipping loan packages in China since April began, and last week they did their largest ever investment ($1.2B) in China's economy when they acquired a shipping compnay for $1.2B aggregate consideration.
Soon, it seems, the dip S negative press on china's economy will have to report on the real news -- that China's economy is making substantial, positive progress on the govt initiatives... just as the rising Macau gaming stocks have already begun telegraphing.
Here I was thinking this guy was simply clueless and that a quality reply might help him, and then he goes and shows everyone he also uses at least one other alias (fleetcrackwood2) to share his ignorance on the mgm and wynn boards. I also went overtto the mgm board to quick scan and see that he and about three other morons comprise 99% of the posts there over the last 10 pages. That board has always sucked, but it really does now as these #$%$ post their ignorance on every thread.
After this post I'll put the moron on ignore -- so those who don't can enjoy him without me. LOL
You seem to need others to point out your ignorance.... weird dude.
My "old posts"? LOL I have shared more comments here on MGM (I'd guess on 5-6 threads) than than I have on MGM over the last three years.
I posted many times on MGM when we were short from $85 to $55 (done well before the horrendous dilution resulting from equity issued to pay off monstrous debt from 2009 on) ~5 years ago and so did my partner. I also posted several threads involving why, AFTER they had diluted the cojones off the original shareholders, we thought MGM was a great trade from $6 back to just over $14 back ~5 years ago. MGM then was down to flat for the next 3.5 yrs, and only after the group doubled last yr has MGM "finally" gotten up 60% from where we sold out at $16 5 yrs ago.
As noted above, we right that MGM was massively overleveraged and poorly positioned in a dead albatross sort of way by owning the tired strip properties, and all of that still applies. But, again, we were "wrong" and way too conservative in closing out the short so early. We have also used MGM as the paired short vs WYNN and MPEL many times since -- so have several pm friends for the structural and strategic reasons discussed on this thread.
Before further repeating your lame perspectives on which company/stock WAS better positioned, have a look at a 5 yr chart comparing MPEL to MGM. MPEL is up some 500% (despite the recent pullback which will soon be reversed) from when we sold out MGM, while MGM is up some 60%.
It is obvious this dude vegasbaby understands little of these topics, but to be simple about it all, we doubt MPEL will repeat this "outperformance" over MGM by a factor of 10x during the forward 4 yrs (time since we sold MGM). Yet MPEL is DRAMATICALLY better managed and strategically positioned than is MGM, and it will likely monstrously outperform MGM, the weakest sister in the group.
ataboy crack! You should spply for a job with Barron's blooging "real time, market moving " news!
colgate offered up the best light one can cast MGM in above... read that several times until it sinks in a bit.
Then you can humor us by explaining the metrics you think illustrate anything (ANYTHING) at all -- other than building count, room count, average number of empty rooms, number of idle tables and empty casinos, or aggregate amount of debt -- where MGM is "outperforming" MPEL. That view is ridiculous. LOL
Those who understand the business would be thinking in terms of revenue growth in percentage terms,, rev per key, win per table, ebitda/share, adj ebitda/share, and EPS growth.
You know, if you and Vegasbaby (LOL) are going to continue posting your ignorance here by offering up clueless commentary on why MGM is ther stock to own over MPEL, a few of us may decide to begin posting on the MGM board mess... you know, some competent quantitative metrics and fundamental/valuation analysis on why MGM remains the structural weak sister in the group, and will continue to carry that distinction indefinitely.
Talking to reporters, Tam said that China UnionPay had underlined in a statement last week that since its inception the use of its cards in Macau casinos had been restricted.
The policy secretary also said there was a mechanism in place to oversee the UnionPay cards’ local use.
“We always keep a close eye on the market [involving UnionPay cards] as well as the casinos,” Tam said, adding, “We can take action anytime…… or implement proper measures when there is a need to strengthen the government’s supervision,” Tam said.
“There are no concrete plans [for special measures to be implemented] on July 1,” he insisted.
Asked as to whether the government would consider banning shops on the fringes of the city’s casinos from accepting UnionPay cards in an attempt to stop the “illegal” cash transfer business, Tam said that not all such shops were involved in irregular activities and local shops needed the service for their mainland clients’ “bona fide” transactions.