Looks like the box hedges are about all off now... and even the dumbest of the analysts are figuring it out after Steve raved about July being off to a GREAT start in Macau...
the bs shorting gig is up now...
Her entire body of work is dog S. Same for "analyst" McKnight. WYNN's earnings beat was on the very large bump in mass play and mega hold of 45% on same! They also put up way better than forecast Vegas because of their flown in Asian players. Steve also commented on Latin players -- never heard him talk about that before. LOL.
Listen to the whole call incl Q&A to appreciate it, but they are very focused on and doing a good job converting VIP players to direct (premium mass VIP). They are also committed to not talking about how much VIP is now shifted over to premium mass. I wonder how many people think that is a trivial shift... we certainly do not! In fact, check back to last Q's report to note Steve tipping his hat, sincerely, to MPEL's leadership in this regard. Steve says he's confident WYNN will get its share of premium mass players or "his name isn't Steve", and i am confident he will too -- as I have said, he's a brilliant operator, almost as good as Lawrence. LOL
MPEL's going to get it share too -- a comment Ho said in an eloquent yet understated way on MPEL's 1Q call, and MPEL's mix is about 30% ahead of WYNN as of last Q and likely working on making further progress this Q. Everyone at the party should understand by now that Macau VIP was weak last Q on this conversion aspect as well as the action to use the private jet fleets at WYNN (and perhaps MGM) to bring Asian players into Vegas as an opportunistic response to all of the Tam and noise bs of the media and weak analysts covering the sector. Steve shared his contempt for all of that in a careful way on the call... fun to listen to if you understand Steve.
August 7 should be a fun day for MPEL longs.
WYNN's entire call made it clear that the bs noise is just that, and the short gig is up on Macau. Check it out when you can.
When you get a chance to listen to the call, note the disgenuine comp/compliments leveled at LVS. funny... but notice they don't compare themselves to MPEL.... chasing MPEL's tactics on premium mass conversion from VIP -- and not sharing the math, telling the furst analyst, who must be reading our papers, "you are ahead of us on this Tom." lol
just blew it out at $60.01. LOL
we'll buy it again if the morons will short it down to below $59.5 pre call... but enough tooling ion this idiotputz.
I see the putz who follows me around thinks we lost money on our HLF trade last night... nope... LOL we were out with lunch money for the staff on a 4k trade before the release hit the wire last night. As those who do click on our posts to see what we are trading/investing in understand, we are actually good at this money mgmt thing. LOL
Well, I should say those who are not gumptarded surely understand... we are glad this idiotpumper s head is short here... and just for fun now, we'll trade hlf (long) again going into the CC at 11:00. Right here at 59.25 looks good -- we'll do just 2k shares for fun.
Listening to the cc now, but Steve is explaining that things are going along just about exactly as we have been suggesting. And now, as he clarifies that Macau is just fine and all of the noise is plain bs noise and that "VIP is stabilized and mass/direct is growing very nicely in macau" and how excited he is about the new Palace and, oh btw, the smoking room builds are going to solve that topic and, ahem, have been a bit disruptive to the floors while the construction is going on but that will soon be history and how labor is not going to be a butch for any operator either... well... the stock has gone from down $10/share when I started this thread right before the call started to green $1/share now. LOL
It will take some time for the street to process what Steve is telling them, but the bs is over. Great news for MPEL stock.
P.S. It was a no b rainer to take off the quick trade on WYNN this morning, but MPEL is still on moron sale. LOL
WYNN released this morning and as noted on prior threads, the supposition that Steve convinced his top tour operators to bring the VIP players to Vegas for the Q as a good place to avoid the glare of Tam and other corruption/UnionPay/visa bs "crackdowns" is more than a good hunch... LOL
We'll take in the call for sure, but their numbers on mass play were excellent, significantly more than enough to overcome the revenue shortfall from VIP in Macau and to drive a solid EPS beat for the Q.
Given MPEL's business strategy puts them well out in front as the lead dog in the direct credit (premium mass) and mass player franchise development theme, the WYNN report is indeed a great preview of what MPEL will have accomplished in a Q where VIP was down and mass play was up more than 35% overall... MPEL should be better than WYNN on all counts -- again.
agree with the gist of your comments, but China's economy is a far cry from being in trouble, even if we cut the reported 7.4% GDP numbers in half.
Beyond that, some still seem to think VIP and Shuli sentiment is the end all to forward performance... weary of pointing out that tour operator visits to Macau are almost unimportant to MPEL... not so for macau broadly, but very much so for MPEL vbased on the business plan, the reduced level of VIP in MPEL's mix, and Ho's running commentary (last in May) that overall GGR will push mid teens for the year, but mass will be more than double that and MPEL will get its share enroute to being the dominant participant for elite mass play in Macau.
That said, between the partner in Manila and the MPEL proprietary database of tour operators and premium mass players from Asian venues apart from HK and mainlanders, we are pretty sure VIP is going to be a big part of what Ho calls the "100%" hitting the ground running in Manila. Looking forward to his update on August 7...
WYNN's report tomorrow will also prove useful... we bet Steve is doing a lot better in Macau than the naysayers hope. LOL
See the GRAsia article of that title for the whole article, but almost a month after we drew the picture, Union Gaming's analyst has begun to figure out the 2Q softness in VIP in macau as the junkets laid low about playing in Macau --opting for private jet trips to WYNN and MGM instead as I suggested was happening in my July 7th post. The central planners have since told Tam to #$%$, no doubt... they just can't kill the Golden Goose that macau gaming represents for them. Hey Union Gaming research director, you really ought to tell your underlings to connect the fact that MPEL and LVS, in particular, are converting lots of VIP play over to the more obscure and massively more profitable direct credit (premium mass) play, and that their ytd VIP reduction is likely call it about 1.5B in the second Q alone. btw, tyhis dynamic is also likely benefitting WYNN and MGM there.
From my post on July 7th here:
"the good news about Vegas VIP last month is that Steve and Shel must have done some "old school" charter flights bringing in the Asian players. That let Tam pound his head into the pile of bs he helped mound regarding UnionPay machines (that is all about nothing of meaning to the elite venues), Visa nonsense (5 vs 7 days), smoking "bans" (that will turn out to be a benefit to those who do not want to be in smoke-filled casinos and yet a convenient place to smoke for those who do want to breath tobacco air all night), "corruption" crackdowns (yawn, but good comedy from Tam), table limits (that really aren't remotely adhered to even as rough guidelines), and so on and on... and since then he's clarified that UnionPay restrictions are just bs and tried to make the soccer excuse for why things looked slow for VIP last month.
...Tam and all of the central planners over there likely have had a huddle or two about protecting the Golden Goose that is Macau gaming, visitation, tourism, travel, restaurants, credit fees, etc.... All good news for Macau's future GGR growth."
Those who are unfamiliar with the COD Manila project should read all of grftt's posts and also the 10k to learn more, but following the first phase of Manila, the second phase is already in the planning process.
COD Manila Phase 1 is built on 15 acres; the expansion phase will be built on the adjacent land owned by the development partnership -- an ADDITIONAL 42 ACRES... and as announced by MPEL's partner last week, the partner is now looking to acquire additional adjacent land there.
As also discussed in the 10k and the now in planning stage bigger expansion phase of Macau Studio City is on the same program...
Vision: "The Future is Ours"
Mission Satement: "We shape the future of gaming and entertainment in Asia"
Click the title below to watch the full interview and read the article, but here are a few exceprts on why Mobius is bullish on China .
[Templeton's] Mobius Says Not Too Late to Buy China With 20% Upside
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets, talks about the outlook for markets, central banks' policies, and his investment strategy. He speaks with Angie Lau and Rishaad Salamat in Hong Kong on Bloomberg Television's "Asia Edge." (Source: Bloomberg)
Mark Mobius says it’s not too late to buy into the rally in Chinese stocks.
The executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group predicts the nation’s equity market will climb another 20 percent, following a 19 percent surge in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index from March 20 through yesterday. Mobius, whose $12 billion Templeton Asian Growth Fund has outperformed 94 percent of peers this year, favors state-owned banks and energy companies because of their cheap valuations and the government’s plans to open up state-dominated industries.
An extension of the rally would give investors another chance to profit after they pulled almost $700 million from U.S. exchange-traded funds tracking China stocks since the advance started, the biggest outflows among emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg. Chinese shares are rebounding as policy makers accelerate spending and loosen some banks’ reserve requirements to keep economic growth from slipping below their 7.5 percent annual target.
“Usually when you enter a phase like this, you’re looking at at least 20 percent upside” from current levels, Mobius, 77, who oversees more than $40 billion in emerging markets, said in an interview yesterday in Hong Kong. “If you look at the valuations of SOEs, you’ll see that they are very cheap.”
here's part of my note about those weekly calls last week... simple stuff:
"Najarian has said he is long the stock since it last pulled back to the 50d ema... on fundamentals, quant and the chart, that should have been a good entrance level, just ask all the 13F filers adding shares 1Q between $37 and $45. Today he said he bought some weeklies, chasing those with others buying them in size. Who is buying them in size? The morons who were unhedged shorting yesterday we suspect... LOL Now the game is on for those option monkeys... when they expire, the box hedges are still out there to fry the unhedged shorts. Who is selling them those ultra short-dated otm calls? LOL"
Retail investors really ought to consider my last sentence there... unless being used properly by someone who understands the quant, options are a great way for sophisticated option writers to take advantage of people who do not really understand them. Beyond hedging expiries, that is why the vast majority of all contracts expire worthless. Again, smart money sells premium to those less sophisticated as a broad brush statement...
Companies will have smoking as needed on the private floors (so all the VIP and premium mass players will be able to chain smoke. There will be zero impact on these players...
As you said I said, most Chinese players smoke heavily ("always")... but if the mass players want to chain smoke (vs stepping 15 paces to the nearest smoking room for their nicotine fix between hands or slot pulls LOL), then they won't be going to macau for entertainment. You get to the same conclusion we have.
VIP and premium mass players will be able to choose between smoking and non-smoking areas.
Mass players in public areas will have clean air to breathe at the tables/slots/machines whether they like it or not.
Mass players in public areas who want to smoke will need to take a few steps to a disignated smoking room light up.
Impact on gaming revenue? Yawn...