We doubt this will drop to $28 unless the broad market is going to drop on a major global recession.
Further, nothing you wrote is a "fact." You are stating nothing more than opinion, opion with all the sophistication one can get from watching clueless Fox or CNBC business "journalists" (LOL)... Everyone buying stocks of late has taken your old news view into account and is on the "take risk by buying" side of the trade the sellers (and shorters) are offering. See my post re risk/reward on "the bottom is in" thread for more info on that... but hey, we'll suggest that out there in 3rd stnd deviation tail land we could see $28 before it is over -- just like we could still see $70+ this year on the other tail.
No one who has limited capital or needs to protect what they have in asset allocations -- especially when they have limited knowledge of the capital markets, this sector or these stocks individually -- should be investing in any stocks in the current market chop. Even the finest growth stories with rock solid balance sheets, management teams and prospects, find themselves under selling pressure as leveraged funds and retail investors alike are forced out of positions and or take gains to offset losses on everything else they own and have ridden down.
The smarter money, with capital flexibility and competent to play the risk reward matrix, thrive in these kinds of conditions... they are on the buy side of the drop below the 50 and 200d averages on the top quality names (MPEL, PCLN, DAL). These are the kind of names that will outperform, thus salvaging fund returns and performance incentive payouts/hurdles as the market turns higher. Some stories, generally only around 25% or so of stocks, have stories strong enough to rise in bear markets (which we are not in just yet and may not get to in this secular bull pullback) -- for the next couple of years, we think MPEL will be one such stock, but absolutely mash to the upside when the market turns up.
blaqknight continues to be obnoxious here, but is he as lame as numb effer sheadbob, who wets himself that I am smarter than his stupidity? LOL As for others here? Several MBAs and attorneys -- so I would not agree my intellect exceeds "everyone" as sheadbob suggests in his blazing insecurity.
"One way position"? I suggested the stock was frothy/toppy above $43 both times earlier this year when several morons here gave me S for that, and i said it may test the 50d moving average (then in the mid $37 range). It did. I also suggested a couple of times that a disciplined tech trader would wait for a heavy volume breakout back above that now double top resistance level. One must be stupid to think THAT is a myopic bullish view.
I also said it was stupid cheap at $13 in nov 2012... and then again at $20 when it pulled back from above $25. Simple. I also suggested when it got back to $25 that the run to $30 by EOY was easy and that we might even see $40 as the momo guys were visible with all their moronic paid hyping. $40 happened. Hello?
We've said this bs drop was that and soon to end. Last week I said we think the bottom is in (after it bounced up from $31.02) as all the bs press put up by moronic pseudo journalists being manipulated by hedge funds shorting the sector regarding UnionPay cards, money laundering, corruption, and all the other nonsense is going to fade as GGR mashes the bs into pulverized waste.
Today the idiots here are joyful the macau stocks, weak of late, were pushed down in a no bid market as the desperado shorts pray to find cover for their stupid shorts from last week? btw, almost every time we've said the stock is bottoming, the context was it could go a bit lower in the rough market. Hello?
These are times to be aggressive and get long large if one has the capital and sophistication to take the ftm up $20 down $2 risk/reward on, but a special FY to putzes trying to dis me here.
The bottom is in, within peanuts now... we continue adding
Thanks to Barrons, Reuters and now Zacks, everyone knows UnionPay bank cards represents a source of massive fraud, illegal money laundering, and all manner of illegal activity, including Zacks and Reuters suggesting that some $22B (unspecified but inferred as USD terms) of these illicit activities took place last month on Macau. They further infer that the Chinese government wants to eradicate all of this outrageous criminal conspiracy activity, which in no small part may have the desirable effect of terminating gambling by China's mainlanders and ruining the Golden Goose that Macau constitutes for China.... right? LOL
Then there is reality. Chinese officials are not stupid and do NOT want to kill the Golden Goose that is Macau. Further, UnionPay cards represent China's attempt to have a national and international consortium of banks, merchants and consumers using this card- based credit payment network. Think of UnionPay cards as China's version of Mastercard, Visa and AmExpress all rolled into one card for holders -- a card now accepted in more than 150 countries and essentially the payment mode of every employed/creditworthy holder.
See my comments under cronjms "Zacks" post, but VIP is still some 65% of Macau GGR and financed in various ways apart from bank credit cards. The tour operators secure that credit, NOT some schmuck out of his car. Same for premium mass -- hello? Credits extended by the gaming cos are settled monthly by the high net worth patrons (think check writing and wire transfers above board). Mass players are likely paying for their rooms, meals and shopping on their unionPay cards, top be sure... and they may also use their UnionPay cards for legitimate ATM withdrawal transactions in various LEGAL venues throughout Macau.
We are surprised the companies are not being even more intense refuting all the bs, but those who understand these topics are on the buy side of the slammed valuations seen for all of these macau companies.
The chumps writing at Zacks are like the ratings agencies -- bottom of the barrel finance students that could not obtain a real street job.
In today's nonsense piece, they echo the recent Reuter's nonsense that "$22 billion" filtered through UnionPay last month, making it seem that sum, inferring in USD terms, went through illegal channels into Macau to be laundered and taken out of china against the rules there.
All of that is bs and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of macau, the difference between VIP (having nothing ewhatsoever to do with UnionPay but involving various legitimate funding sources for the tour operators, and representing well over half of total GGR in Macau), premium mass (funded by the houses and settled up monthly with patrons having nothing to do with UnionPay) and mass (some patrons in this bucket may well use their UnionPay cards -- think about it as Americans and Europeans would use their MasterCard, Visa or Amex cards). The last is the smallest piece of the three and more about dispersion over many players than a few morons disbursing cash outside of their trunks down on the penninsular ... and the 12 known morons illegally using hand held machines were arrested back in february and obviously not impact GGR since.
Shame to see so many little guys getting clobbered on the macau names since this bs campaign started, and small consolation to realize that the entire market has been sucking up dirt of late. When the bs and noise is eventually mashed out with GGR and ebitda performance over the coming days, weeks and months, the macau names will continue to be a great place for pm to look to as salvation for getting their portfolio returns back to incentive levels for this year. Man are the airlines, online travel bookers, financials and select techs looking cheap again too... great time to start a new fund...
Bain's work is good... but I'm sure he would tell you he is not trying to be all inclusive. Our view is they should be doing buybacks vs dividends with any excess cash flow, but as called out prior, it is obvious Crown Resorts (Packer's company) is reliant on MPEL for cash they need to fund other business.
MPEL overall use of leverage has been modest, especially relative to ramping adj ebitda and progress coming and 30% ROIC hurdles. Debt service is not an issue. We can be call it certain MPEL will use debt as they have done in the past to fund ongoing construction/development activities incl Tower 5 and the second phase of MSC... same with Japan and any future Philippine expansion.
COD Manila will quickly drive top of group share there!
As for Macau, the better measure is going to be adjusted ebitda -- that will capture cost efficiency and overall property utilization. As MPEL continues to lead the group (75% mass play), it is easy to see they are doing things beneficial for overall visitation and promoting healthy growth for Macau's economy and employment and prosperity of locals... the keys to being a beneficiary under Macau's criteria for awarding tables.
fun to see that Macau's table limit for the 12 month period ended 3/31/14 was at least 50% above what they said was the upper "limit" ... of course that upper limit is not a legislated or even serious edict, more at guideline that they want companies to do more than build VIP play rooms. Dancing water, cinema showcase anyone? The "Asian Way" LOL
MSC up and running will give them the bump to 15%+ next year -- a year ahead of MGM and WYNN getting their new Cotai properties going...
Did you see my other post re share above? You understand the math better than most pm -- and certainly better than 100% of anyone short below $35 these days -- but MPEL's share has held flattish with no footprint expansion/ramp and table adds enjoyed by LVS t12m, while taking rolling chip down from 50% of total GGR to only 25% ytd. THAT is very impressive in terms of proeprty utilization and yield rolling forward as you know.
that is what all of the F idiots think...
Short until you tiny nuts falloff and take your "irestimator" and fheadbob and all the rest of your aliases with you down the toilet. LOL
Longs should keep a few things in mind that most shorts likely can't even define... shorts should buy more puts. LOL
Last year some 65% of Macau's GGR was rolling chip hold. Only half of MPEL's GGR last year was VIP...
This YTD, VIP remains well over half of Macau's GGR is is VIP play, but MPEL's rolling chip piece is only 25% of total GGR, and, isolating COD, 80% of GGR is mass and premium mass.
As for share totals, LVS should be mashing the group based on the increased footprint, so everyone else is doing well to ~hold share... of course, LVS is making progress emphasizing mass, but the deltas this month for the group reflect VIP play back in the mix after Golden Week, which Ho described as "phenomenal" if anyone missed the CC.
Good to see the Bloomberg article out on MPEL... as we said last week, we think the bottom is in on the group, particularly MPEL.
You must have lost something in translation... A quick recap of our views, MS take and the Blackstone part...
Those who have read our views for the last several years know we think the big high ceilinged casinos on the Vegas strip are where no one, Asian or not, goes to gamble. MGM's franchise is full of there albatross properties and the only thing that kept GGR up at all in Vegas for a while is flying high rollers into WYNN and LVS' properties and that many people love the feel of Bellagio. Vegas is now one of the world's best large MCS, CMA, auto/boat showtype of venue, and a place for college kids to binge party while the bus tours full of blue hairs stay in discount rooms and play low dollar slots and go to the shows and reasonable dinners. We think Cosmo has been a disaster from the day they put shovels into the ground, a few weeks before they cut into the butch aquifer, and that it has done poorly for years on end is no surprise, even though it is right in the mix of City Center and Bellagio.
MS analyst thinks the deal was good for Vegas. We think tha may be right In terms of clearing it from a seller out of sorts (Deutsche bank) to a financial one that will likely make progress running it. They also think it is a good sign for increasing property values because it sold at 18x t12m ebitda. We think that is errant thinking; our comments above were pretty straightforward.
As for Blackstone, to restate our take, we think BLACKSTONE believes they can increase property ebitda and that they would not have purchased it, even at the distressed/vulture price they paid, unless THEY thought they could improve ebitda (i.e., make the property worth more than it is today).
Murren said, "We're rooting for whoever might buy it." As for us? As I wrote back when the auction process got underway, we thought Packer put in a throwaway bid, but doubted MPEL interested, even at a very distressed price that MGM should be willing to pay.
yhoo won't post the article... junk...
Anyway, Deutsche Bank sold Cosmo Thursday at a distressed price alright -- to Blackstone for $1.7B or less than half what they had in it. As we said last month, the property made no sense for MPEL, and obviously if Packer made a bid through Crown Resorts it was below the vulture price Blackstone paid. Surprised MGM didn't take it out down there to protect the turf between Bellagio and City Center since they are already in so irretrievably deep on the strip -- it should have penciled at less than half construction cost! But Murren said a couple weeks ago they had no interest... they got to see the aquifer for a few weeks before the big pump diversion were set up so they they had eyes wide open, even more than their own struggles to genrate GGR on the strip outside of Bellagio.
As for the lowball price, believe it or not, one of the "analysts" from Morgan Stanley called this "good news" for the values of other big strip properties because it was sold for 18x ebitda... talk about clueless -- have i mentioned the sector analysts other than Bain are weak sauce? Where do they fuind these guys?
Blackstone obviously thinks they can make huge strides on ebitda or despite the big discount to construction cost, they are idiots for paying so much for another strip albatross. That said, they understand the "value" of commercial real estate is the sustainable ebitda it can generate, so clearly they think they can say triple the current ebitda run rate to make economic sense of their purchase against their ROIC hurdle.
out of WYNN with a quick $5.75 pop on those 6k shares (had to take out that little bump on low volume; out .70 below today's top on the way up so lucky is better than good at times). Sector shorts and those chasing "value" in their long puts on MPEL this week have been a joy to play against. All proceeds from the little WYNN flip will be added to MPEL today... but TRIP is now also a compelling long trade again.
just blew out of those 6k for a quick $34,480k... WYNN is going to be fine friends, but we'll add the proceeds of this quick trade back to MPEL as WAY too stupid cheap.
Special thanks to the putzes shorting this sub $200... we'll play again if you morons can take it down again. LOL
Overall retail sales were up 12% if you read the Ministry's release...
And then we have the subsequent updates (Ho's "Golden Week was phenomenal" comments and the WYNN team's updte from yesterday (shared by grftt here) that GGR is going "very very good" and so is everything else incl occupancy, adr, f&b and so on...
So the sky has not fallen on macau, and the big bad wolf is apparently still at bay... and the feared invasion by "lions and tigers and bears" is looking sillier by the day and week now...
The really funny part about the new regime wanted to go after corruption is that the real stroy on that is not 12 guys with peanut cash in the back of their cars for low end players... nah... check out the headlines on health care fraudsters rounded up this week in china... now that is some "corruption" round upo, but not really involved in GGR generation in macau now or in the future. Crooks beware, Xi has your number...
Ministry release from today:
"Online sales at 5,000 retailers tracked by the Ministry of Commerce rose 35.5% in April from a year earlier, faster than 31.1% for department stores and 29.6% for hypermarkets and supermarkets, the ministry said."
Thanks for the quality note on more reassurance things are going along well in Macau. We love Steve, a brilliant operator and currently have a small trade on with 6k shares just below $197 (we'll blow that out likely today snd redeploy the capital to MPEL since the goofy fire sale continues) ... but when it comes to his knowledge of things outside their direct realm, they at times confuse the facts a bit. For example:
On the Dec Q CC, he made reference to how WYNN has "the only 5 Star Resort in Macau"... We sent him a note to think through that MPEL has that with Altria and at COD, and Steve hasn;t made that gaff since.
Zeman (WYNN exec) also suggested "especially WYNN's [gaming] numbers are very very good" -- nice to hear him say that in mid may so half way through the Q, but he is no quant or economist either; WYNN's numbers were very good, but the least impressive of the group last Q if one understands peer comparisons and the mix of mass vs VIP play. On Macau, table yields and ebitda at the fore, MPEL's were the dazzling results of the group.
Last, in the recap you posted above, Steve suggests China retail spending might be just a "tiny" bit soft even though WYNN's GGR, occupancy, f&b and so on are all smoking hot... What he had to have meant is that in their one property down on the penninsular, not on Cotai and principally reliant on VIP tours is just a pinch soft in THEIR retail lux shops of late. Retail sales are decidedly NOT soft in China. goog this to see a fun data set on the topic.
China Consumer & Retail Weekly: Retail Sales Rise 12% in April
If you listen/read what the Tim trader dude had to say about MPEL, it was incredibly lame. I would critique it, but anyone who understands half of what has been discussed here on real threads will immediately realize that he knows nothing about UnionPay, the "crackdown" on 12 guys operating out of their car trunks netting a pissant total of $400k, and the idea that they want all cash providers, incl pawnshops and other small "atm" outlets to play by the rules.
When the street begins to figure out and discount that (1) MPEL's ebitda run rate (and dividend payout will be call it double+ by 2H16, (2) contrary to Tim's imagination, MPEL is not trading at 40x anything except 80 cents, (3) Manila will add more than zero to 2014 and peanuts to 2015, (4) China's economy is not going off the cliff (though GDP may drop a point or two), (5) Japan is highly likely to enable IR development at one or more locations in Japan, whether or not in time for the Olympics' crowds, and that MPEL is likely to be one of the big winners when it comes to concessionaires there -- and many japanese are going to game at COD manila between now and 2020, the earliest time we'd see gaming in Japan anyway, (6) despite clueless perception and uninformed opinion spew, MPEL is already trading at the cheapest ebitda metrics in the group... well, at that time, the stock will likely be gaining the respect Packer and Ho deserve for what they are doing with their capital here -- 67% ownership that is.
As for Chanos? He's a cpa and smart number cruncher, and has had many home runs, including shorting Enron before it blew up. But he has also been wrong alot he will tell you. Think through that he has been saying china's real estate bubble and export economy was going to collapse for at least three years Now, this week, he is suggesting that he wouldn't short the macau names, but he wouldn't buy them either. Jim has done better shorting than most, but not well on long bets if you study his record.
thanks for the background foggy... I'll pass on ready anything from any of the Motley Dufus garbage from now on. LOL
Chanos is a smart guy but often wrong. He's been calling for the collapse of the China's banking system, real estate and economy for at least three years now. in fact, when he first started making those "fire in the theater" comments he was paired long a few of the casino names as a hedge offset.
I didn't hear his comments on the gaming stocks, but saying he wouldn't be long is a lot different than calling them good shorts. Jim is not stupid... LOL