Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

AT&T, Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 262 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • Reply to

    REIT sUnlikely on Macau

    by squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:11 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    to expand for fun and those not familiar with MPEL's and other macau/HK holding companies and other foreign jurisdictions for corporate tax purposes... consider the following...

    "At the start, anyone who understands the "tax efficiency" economics and the various ownership structures, esp of MPEL, knows there is no advantage to it there."

    Although the practical reality is that Macau will want the quality operators to continue being the engine driving their local economy and Beijing -- political rhetoric and quashing Xi Jinping's political enemies aside -- understands they need to protect the Golden Goose (gaming revenue as the tax base needed to support not just Macau but all of the infrastructure and Hengquin and yes Guoangdong and other surrounds, too), none of the concessionaires own the land in Macau and unlike U.S. based corporations there is no "State and Federal" corporate income tax there. This is central to the economics of doing the tax-advantaged REIT structure here in the U.S.

    In basic terms, under REIT structure, the entity is required to pay out at least 90% of annual operating income to the owners to avoid taxation at the entity level... but that enables escape from paying income taxes at the corporate level. Isolating MPEL, study their holding company structure to learn more but their domicile is not China or the U.S., and they pay no income tax so they do not need nor will they seek to do any kind of REIT structure to extract the advantage MGM (as did Penn Gaming) with their U.S domiciled, and significant -- relative to capital structure -- commercial real estate assets. Again, MGM will give up substantive flexibility if they greenlight this initiative, but the economics of saving Federal income taxes on the real estate aspect of their ops is large while running positively since the big slams. There are other nuances, but humor aside, most institutional owners and for sure most "analysts" don't understand this simplified discussion of the topi

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2015 7:27 AM Flag

    I think you are referring to the Deutsche Bank, JPM and Morgan Stanley downgrades from almost two weeks ago? The four notable "back to bullish calls" in recent weeks have been from Morgan Stanley (now, incredibly, reversed out as joked about on another thread), Union Gaming (Govertson is the analyst dthe98 goofball calls a young idiot from the US who knows nothing that is actually the middle aged guy who lives on macau and is on a first name basis with all of the execs there and understands the business exceedingly well as an analyst and consulting advisor -- LOL), Citi and Brean... here's the thing as discussed in this thread...

    There is sticking one's neck out on a "contrarian call", and then there is actually understanding what is happening and the implications for serious invstors who understnad risk and reward. The buyside funds are not looking to these analysts for guidance; more at ensuring they are not missing something... by the time it is obvious the "contrarians" are correct on the macau names once again (the consensus thinking has missed the last 5 turns since early 2009), the stocks will be materially higher. Some may consider studying the last two Qs 13Fs (quality value guys back to adding heavy since mid $30s after lightening when we did above $43) and the buybacks done between $21 and $26 by the "sophisticated" BOD last Q.

    See the Brean guy's comments in the cnbc video from this week... and note how Melissa (Fast Money host) really doesn;t like how his comments do not comport with her bs negative bias right up there will Shuli Renn's running drivel.

  • last Friday the company made the announcement below, following which, under the HK listing rules, they will be able to resume repurchasing shares with the residual $200m or so left under the first $500m authorization they issued last year. No one should be surprised to see MPEL spend that $200m soon after the meeting is adjourned... because they are assuredly considering re-upping the program with an additional $500m or so authorization to be approved by shareholders of record as of April 2 for this year's annual general meeting to be held another several weeks from then.

    NOTICE OF BOARD MEETING
    APPROVING FINAL RESULTS
    This announcement is made pursuant to Rule 13.43 of the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities
    on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.
    Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (the “Company”) announces that a meeting of the board
    of directors of the Company will be held on March 25, 2015 (Wednesday) for the purpose of,
    among other matters, considering and approving the audited final results of the Company and its
    subsidiaries for the year ended December 31, 2014.

  • S owhile Shirley Mason (toast,drjackoff, janetate et al),matrixputz and the rest of the "bashers" (LOL) here continue to rant about how "VIP is dead", "VIP is never coming back" and similar endless drivel, the Brean guy actually understands the dynamic that the "VIP who are uncomfortable have not been there for months now" and the VIP tour players who have continued to come and play (i.e., the other 70% or so of the dollars that were playing in last year's peak numbers) never stopped coming and will continue to come to play in macau with their favorite junkets.

    Gee... refreshing to hear that this guy from a tiny firm actually understands what is happening... the rest of his comments also ring some familiar bells to anyone actually doing legitimate study here. LOL

  • Reply to

    REIT sUnlikely on Macau

    by squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:11 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2015 6:29 AM Flag

    Jim,

    That is what I wrote about above:
    "At the start, anyone who understands the "tax efficiency" economics and the various ownership structures, esp of MPEL, knows there is no advantage to it there."

    Although the practical reality is that Macau will want the quality operators to continue being the engine driving their local economy and Beijing -- political rhetoric and quashing Xi Jinping's political enemies aside -- understands they need to protect the Golden Goose (gaming revenue as the tax base needed to support not just Macau but all of the infrastructure and Hengquin and yes Guoangdong and other surrounds, too), none of the concessionaires own the land in Macau and unlike U.S. based corporations there is no "State and Federal" corporate income tax there. This is central to the economics of doing the tax-advantaged REIT structure here in the U.S.

    In basic terms, under REIT structure, the entity is required to pay out at least 90% of annual operating income to the owners to avoid taxation at the entity level... but that enables escape from paying income taxes at the corporate level. Isolating MPEL, study their holding company structure to learn more but their domicile is not China or the U.S., and they pay no income tax so they do not need nor will they seek to do any kind of REIT structure to extract the advantage MGM (as did Penn Gaming) with their U.S domiciled, and significant -- relative to capital structure -- commercial real estate assets. Again, MGM will give up substantive flexibility if they greenlight this initiative, but the economics of saving Federal income taxes on the real estate aspect of their ops is large while running positively since the big slams. There are other nuances, but humor aside, most institutional owners and for sure most "analysts" don't understand that simplified discussion of the topic, and we know the idiots hyping MGM and bashing MPEL here have no clue about any of it as said elsewhere on the board this week.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    great fun read if you missed it or are new to Macau names... this turn in Beijing's oversight attitude towards macau as the Golden Goose source of economic power for macau, hengqin and Guoangdong too is the BIG news of the month!

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    Citi and now Brean calling out the time is now to get back to long... of course, the key 13F longs have been adding a bunch since $37 last summer, and the company itself took out $300m of shares with the buyback plan from oct-december, leaving $200m to go in the window between the HK delisting and filing the annual report before re-upping the authorization at this year's annual meeting. gooble gooble...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    several articles worth reading if you are new to the MPEL story.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    four thumbs down on such bullish news? LOL Why not use all 12 or so Shirley?

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    reasd the thread for the most important news of March... dippy analyst and media comments, nor the drivel posts by Shirley Mason matter for anything.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    for many reasons...
    At the start, anyone who understands the "tax efficiency" economics and the various ownership structures, esp of MPEL, knows there is no advantage to it there.

    Then, forget that macau is a SAR, not "China" per se, and forget that China loves obedient macau... and forget that Beijing has already, through Li Gang as the sessions, acknowledged they have gone too far and are unintentionally hurting GGR/tax collections and economic development of Macau, Hengqin and Guoangdong and have said they will now go slow, trying to encourage more diversification of Macau's economy over the next 20-30 years vs menacing IR operators with concession renewals and the mid term review being all about checking the boxes...

    I've noted the table allocations have been a big uncertainty for at least 6 months, but now it seems the other legit concern, that Beijing needs to be careful not to hurt the Golden goose as penned here for months, has hit home with the central planners. Hats off to Brean and the Citi crew for calling it time to pile in to the Macau names again... good calls like this make ones career in the research game. Morgan Stanley's sellsider group is looking like a harlot of their hedge fund clients and needs to be swept out along with the group research director. Talk about great call at $21 in january... followed by the most ridiculous reversal of call in march -- likely just ahead of the group beginning to show light at the end of the tunnel again.

    As for doing REIT on macau? Likely in my view that no one will do that... but Beijing knows they need to quality operators and their capital to push the entire SE end of China to its potential, and there is NFW they are going to run head first into a wall of confiscating Western capital when what they want is tons more of that investment. Long after the reversal sets in hard, we'll see the dippy analyst group come back around -- they have on the last 5 important turns for this group of stocks. LOL

  • Reply to

    MGM vs. MPEL

    by paulchironis Mar 17, 2015 10:18 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    see REIT Thread

  • Reply to

    MGM vs. MPEL

    by paulchironis Mar 17, 2015 10:18 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    the comments of a moron

  • Reply to

    Why This Firm Is Slashing Macau Estimates

    by jane_tate Mar 18, 2015 12:51 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Fun tooling on shirley...

    The real fun is that even if they had never has any GGR from Studio city the stock is still oversold... but the reality of Macau governance and Beijing oversight is that they know lawrence is adding tremendously to the local economy and they want him to keep on trucking with employment and tax revenues in his existing plant, but also coming tower 5 at COD Cotai, pHASE 1 AND THEN EXPANSION PHASE AT Studio City...

    IF ANY COMPANY IS GOING TO GET TABLES, STUDIO CITY IS! AS CALLED OUT BY HO LAST CC, MPEL HAS MORE "DIVERSIIFCATION" than the rest of Macau combined!

  • Reply to

    Why This Firm Is Slashing Macau Estimates

    by jane_tate Mar 18, 2015 12:51 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Shirley Mason, LOL, you are one deceptie, underhanded piece of work, devoid of any integrity... And given your nonsense on IKGH and here, do you actually think anyone has sold any shares based on your bs "bashing?" You are almost as ridiculous as matrixtrade, the putz who has tried to dis me 300 times here when he is the F moron who hyped MPEL was going to $75 in 2014 -- the same day in Jan 2014 I explained why we were selling out/hedging the core at $43. FY both -- with a fork.

    For everyone else who may think Shirley mason (aka janetate, toast, drjackoff, blaqnite, fkuholly,fkunyc, fkuimbecile, idiotpumper, mytek and all the rest of his ianane aliases used here and on various other boards to carry on conversations with himself including congratualating himself on his most alaways incomplete or otherwiase errant "analysis" of companies he is hyping or shorting, have a good laugh with the longtimers who have repeatedly called his bs out here.

    As with all but three publishing analysts last year, the dopey CLSA group of "analysts" "slashed" their revenue and eps estimate last February when january GGR results were a "dreadfully low" 7% -- about half of trend from 2H13.

    Then they raised their estimates back to 15% consensus GGR for 2014 when February results came in at 42% GGR YOY... Then they pulled them back down when Ho reset expectations in early august, explaining that VIP would remain below trend until a few months after Xi's visit in december (when Steve and Shel said VIP would be back by 4Q14) and that mass GR was not going to run above 30% for long and to be thinking more like half of that once the corruption crackdown disruption settled out.

    Did I mention FY for all of your bs here? Yeah FY and the donkey you ride. LOL

  • Reply to

    Ok I'm calling it.

    by jane_tate Mar 17, 2015 12:54 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Another fine example if Shirley Mason carrying on conversations with herself here. In order here: janetate -- toast -- janetate. Holy S stupid, and almost as funny as when he forgets which alais he is writing on and the "personas" of each... on the same threads!

    "toast22342000 • Mar 14, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I can't imagine anything more humiliating for the cabal than having to reply using multiple aliases, most of which I have on ignore because they are used to make replies so idiotic their sole purpose it to act as a distraction."

  • Reply to

    Ok I'm calling it.

    by jane_tate Mar 17, 2015 12:54 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    Ok, i'm just calling you out Shirley Mason (toast, drjackoff, janetate, idiotpumper, fkuimbecile, fkunyc, fkuholly, et al in the “cabal”)… and "please refrain from those ad hominem attacks” while throwing stones from your “glass houses” ROTFLOL

    "toast22342000 • Mar 14, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I can't imagine anything more humiliating for the cabal than having to reply using multiple aliases, most of which I have on ignore because they are used to make replies so idiotic their sole purpose it to act as a distraction."

    Did you and your pal Bain go to sell on IKGH,what with all its little dippy junket tour clients yet? LOL

  • Reply to

    Ok I'm calling it.

    by jane_tate Mar 17, 2015 12:54 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    Shirley,
    You are a master contraindicator and self-impalation master bator too!

    So did you sell out IKGH yet ? ROTFLOL at what an idiot will write.

  • Reply to

    MGM vs. MPEL

    by paulchironis Mar 17, 2015 10:18 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    "vegasbaby", you are one ignorant pup. LOL

    NFW MGM is going to double its total revenue from Vegas next year GFL. As for will MGM double from the bottom this year? When the stock was at $27, you said it would be at $30 any day (on its way to below $18 a few months later -- LOL)... now you say it will double? That is possible, as long as Macau gets back to at least half trend growth (say 8% run rate YOY CAGR starting say 4Q14), and MGM gets its new property on macau back to being under construction soon, and that MGM is able to ramp its new property to at least a 15% ROIC... yeah... if it can get all of that done, successfully complete the REIT to extract the tax efficiency) and not lose any of the revenue stream it currently enjoys in Vegas, the two parts may well drive valuation of your "double the [recent] low" of $18 by the end of 2016.

    Two things about that: MPEL, and LVS will outperform MGM is all that happens, certainly excl the REIT pop... andrepeat this: "Over 80% of MGM's ebitda will come from macau once their new Cotai property is opened." LOL

  • Reply to

    Ok I'm calling it.

    by jane_tate Mar 17, 2015 12:54 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 18, 2015 8:39 AM Flag

    Will wonders never cease?
    ok Shirley Mason (toast, drjackoff, janetate, idiotpumper, fkuimbecile, fkunyc, fkuholly, et al in the “cabal”)… where would we all be without you hyping IKGH and tinkling on MPEL? LOL and "please refrain from those ad hominem attacks” while throwing stones from your “glass houses” ROTFLOL

    "toast22342000 • Mar 14, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I can't imagine anything more humiliating for the cabal than having to reply using multiple aliases, most of which I have on ignore because they are used to make replies so idiotic their sole purpose it to act as a distraction."

    To be consistent with your mangled stockpicking/timing, you must think it is time to sell IKGH now, having ridden that down from $9 to $1... LOL

T
34.09+0.08(+0.24%)Apr 27 4:00 PMEDT