glad they used cash vs dilution of stock deal...
We added back half the trade sleeve blended at 1204.70, pleased with the institutional support as it were. We'll put the other half back on if it retests (or busts thru) $1200 again. Fun $55/share pickup in 24 hours. We should always be so "lucky."
Staying right on the core here; EXPE is even better as they get their growth curve ginned up again.
And what a gift Luftansa noise gave us to reload AAL and DAL.
Actually shorts are crazy lucky PCLN did this deal at these levels!
You love the news? Ya, we see you yell that on several clueless posts already today... That's because you are clueless. LOL
$2.6B is more than 4% of the company....
What else should they do with the cash and capacity to issue debt at historic low levels? Expand and accelerate the buyback program! That they are willing to pay up big time for OPEN tells us something about core growth though. In a word? YUCK.
As for buying TRIP, GFL on that... but TRIP would love PCLN top pay up around $200/share (similar ebitda metrics for that vs what they are paying for OPEN)...
There is a long line of companies that hopes PCLN and others will pay up big time for hardly defensible "niche" internet companies... groupon, yelp and a dozen others...
You calling me clueless? Really funny gomer. LOL
Your comments are those of an idiot standing around with pompoms. You might want to go back a bit in time to read our long term fundamental bullishness here... just start with December 2012 at $595/share.
As for this OPEN deal? The worst thing we've seen PCLN do since following owning it for the first time at $85 in 2009.
Here we are, owning the core at $950 (round 10 or so), having blown out the trade sleeve at $1260 yesterday, and thinking the stock is likely to retest $1200 before moving up into earnings, and they announce this POS deal... growth must be slowing faster than we thought for them to do this deal. Yuck...
Love this part:
"I think many will be surprised by how fast this sector is likely to turn up -- big slugs of the box shorting began coming off this week, hand in hand with pm adding shares as the last of the momos/daytrading shorts find themselves 300' below surface without submersible gear needed to stay down there. deja vu, hundreds of times over the last couple decades."
Have you guys seen the Annie hall movie where Woody Allen says to Diane Keaton about the loud-mouthed moron standing behind them in line for a movie "what I wouldn't give for a sock full of horse manure" loud enough that the moron can hear him? Classic... I hope the morons, including the reporters at Barrons, WSJ, Forbes and IBD and the "research analysts" publishing nonsense about UnionPay, China sky falling, shadow banking, and the other 13 reasons Macau gaming was in deep horse S as well as all the dolts posting clueless horse S here over recent weeks are all enjoying chortling on their packed socks today... there are many more socks full coming back to them over the next several days, weeks and quarters as MPEL's fundamental and quantitative story unfolds, a nice payback as the reversal gathers some steam.
hilarious to see the Citi analyst now parrot grftt's comments on WCup game time airings.
As I mentioned, several pals began pulling down the box and other hedges on Monday and yesterday... and now today a few more threw some gas on the fire.
The technically oriented players will note the low of $31.09 from May 15 now goes down as successfully retested... but for the wary or at least weary, that is not to say that stupid can not be revisited. Still, when some of the weakest-minded of the analyst group become, as Obiwankanobi coined, "not the droids [the shorts] we're looking for" and figure out that it is difficult to breathe 300' underwater without deep water submersible gear, well then... what i called the turn and "rip higher coming over the next few days" should be upon us soon if not already. In what is becoming a favorite refrain of mine over the years, quality fundamental and quantitative analysis and valuation work tend to overcome bs and errant analysis before too many moons pass.
fair enough... room for all kinds of drinks at the cocktail party.
And now, almost time to think about going back onto a bit of DAL and AAL as the talking heads talk those down. Would love to go large both again if the momo exodus from those will drive a 10% or more haircut.
And what's with the Macau names and even little old BYD this morning? LOL
Great post jack... this is what will matter over the next few weeks!
Oriinally the TianamenSquare piece as a tossaway comment, but grftt's comments are the tell.
As for all the one offs, incl TS, no professional managing money that I know would sell shares based on the totality of all the noise, let alone any one part. I can say with great confidence that several pm long a bunch here, and adding hard during 1Q as it eased back to the 50d ema, have boxed out a significant portion of there gross long. That is not because of the impact of any of these temporary and unimportant noise elements, instead, it has been in recognition that the momo crowd is shorting the sector without any real knowledge of it or the individual companies, and the highly visible and now increasingly plain to see utilization of weak analysts and really lame media points to orchestrate the takedown.
As for VIP growth fading? It may be that only about 14 people apart for mgmt teams there understand it, but the ramp in premium mass is a big piece of that as gaming directors and players hook up with direct credit arrangements and private jets/helicopters/penthouse suites/comps/lobster and caviar/cigars/Bordeaux, Burgundy, champagne and cognac and other "party favors" -- all just the way the guest and his entourage like things... the cemented "stay and play" clientele as it were.
As for 2Q results, for MPEL they should be outstanding... and they will matter as the premise for 2H outlook rom the exec teams. Some of the companies more reliant on VIP may not fare so well, but even they are likely benefiting as others de-emphasize tours and they are all making some progress on mass and premium mass as well.
I think many will be surprised by how fast this sector is likely to turn up -- big slugs of the box shorting began coming off this week, hand in hand with pm adding shares as the last of the momos/daytrading shorts find themselves 300' below surface without submersible gear needed to stay down there. deja vu, hundreds of times over the last couple decades.
Stock was just below $8 when I wrote that in early March
Sometimes in life, when someone comes along trying to share perspective and it is obvious he/she knows more than we do on a given topic, it presents us with the opportunity to learn if only we can open our minds and bridle out human inclination to disregard comments that do not comport with our own predispositions and "beliefs."
At times, it can even save or make us nice coin...
Here's to hoping the cheerleaders will chase this up above $7 again so we can get comfy shorting again before big drop round 5.
Where are the cheerleaders for this once great now hosed brand? C'mon now, we are counting on you and the clueless analysts to pump this up one more time -- back to school season coming right up now, and then all the baggy gansta neon snowboard pants round 3.
This is up 60 cents since we bailed... but c'mon guys, buy the cajones out of this before they file ch 13. LOL
Seriously, we'd like to get short again, but we need the final gasp as the faithful cheerleader chase this once proud and great brand back above $5 for us.
Then.... hey, go to youtube and listen/watch the video you'll find searching for "worst cover ever". The song is "The Final Coundown" and there are two versions of it that are so funny they will make you laugh until tears run down your face, even if you are long this aabove $8 where we laid out the bear case on the shares a few months ago. Seriously, listen to the entire videos, the guitar solos are stunning!
Then, if you need more cheering up, search for "gansta reporter" and hear his take on, in his words, what really happened that day. LOL
no, they did not... they receivedgrants totaling 100k shares apiece though.
One of the director actually did buy 15k shares... he must be the one whop wears "member's Only" jackets and Billiabong shorts out to dinner. LOL
Grftt's comments on my suggestion that somber and respectful family time reflection by chinese people while the Chinese govt blackout of Tianamen Square references on TV and via the internet was happening may have been an influence on tourism and Macau visitation during the last week of May (from drjack's "it can not be reiterated enough" thread) deserves its own topic here.
Here what grfft, one of the longtimers here with a keen understanding of Asian culture and the region as well as the gaming business in Asia, had to say about it...
"The Tiananmen Square anniversary was the lone source of slump the last week of May IMHO...I just spoke to a guy over here who is a school teacher (non Chinese) from the states who has lived in Shenzhen right next to Zhuhai and Macao. From what he was saying, many mainlanders not only did not travel to Macao but did not travel anywhere last week of May. There was huge rememberance gatherings in Macau and HK. Somebody should get a hold of some figures for the Gombei border gate and publish them for last week, they will see a big slump in visitation."
I can hardly wait to see the "analysts" begin publishing "research" on this topic as a key driver amongst other "noise" and "one-offs" (more coinage now being repeated roundly by analysts and media tools) since this board has become a primary "research source" for most of them. LOL
There are numerous ridiculous comments in that piece... nothing new from Clueless Shuli.
This is about the 7th time she and or these analysts have said something incredibly uninformed about VIP, premium mass, UnionPay and other related topics, including these doltish remarks:
1. IBD and two analysts saying VIP will be hurt because players will not be able to access additional gaming funds. These morons saying/writing this obviously have no idea what a junket is, how it or the players are financed, or anything else about the business. VIP tour players are not going to ATM machines to obtain junket chips.
2. Premium Mass comments attributed to MS do not appear in anything we have seen in writing; perhaps Shuli Ren was quoted something she thought was said about premium mass? Hard to believe any analyst who understands what "premium mass" means would suggest they go to ATM machines, pawn shops for bogus transactions/returns or out to someone's trunk to swipe their credit or debit card for cash to take back into the casino.... in fact, that is all plain stupid. Premium mass players have direct stay and play relationships with their house of choice and settle up their net credits monthly with the house.
3. "UnionPay cards" on not only cash debit cards, the company issues both debit cards AND credit cards and both are running well in excess of $1 TRILLION/year of transaction volume. These cards are to Chinese people what our Mastercard/Visa and Amex cards are here... usable internationally and in lieu of carrying big cash.
4. UBS' Robin Farley is the jeopardy answer to "which analyst is dumber than all the rest in the sector?" VIP is ran 65-70% last yr, but even WYNN and MGM are down to around 50% ytd. As LVS and MPEL continue to really perform with more like 70%+ mass, their forsaken VIP business is left to the others, some of which is evidenced in overall GGR carve up in recent months.
There is more, but enough. The analysts really are weak though...