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squeezetracker 379 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • Reply to

    13F Comments

    by squeezetracker Aug 19, 2014 1:29 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 22, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    They are now just managing Steve's money, but their deifinition of "research edge" as SAC was the art of using material nonpublic information to conduct illegal insider trading as the norm there. Frankly, given they have long been a go go trading firm, I hope they came on at $38 and blew it out at $30.

    Most of the serious June 30 allocations of size are in the the hands of very solid sector investors -- guys who actually understand the markets, business, companies, and hedging... good to see such additions given that knowledge.

    We'd like to see all of the hot/momo money sell out down here while the pissant funds paying the tarts to post here trying to shake out a few thousand shares per month from weak retail hands continues... Those pm dopes must not understand that when the ~3% buyback authorization is spent, Packer and Ho's companies will own 69% or so of MPEL. Those are the positions that matter most -- those guys are playing for another double+ on adj ebitda and share price F24-36M.

    Do you realize that less than 5-6% max of the shares are in retail hands? They can't or they wouldn't waste 3 cents/post on these idiots posting drivel here. LOL

  • Talk about weak sauce and lack of insight - she and Robin are the two weakest of the weak group of sellsiders (Bain aside).

    Other than the Macau data on GGR showing signs of progress in august (two days after everyone else published the "news" that August is showing some signs of modest and early turnaround), Karen Tang's 5th grader report is another in a long line of weak "updates" from her. Her latest report also lowers WYNN to a "sell" rating... she's one smart cookie alright -- concerned, she is, that based on revised expectations for VIP and Ho's reset on mass for Macau two weeks ago and counting, along with a more detailed review of WYNN's mass hold and softer ebitda after normalized mass hold is considered and -- wait for it -- given that labor costs are rising and some low tier mass players [as premium mass and VIP areas have private rooms] may not play anymore because of smoking bans LOL (did you ever hear the one about gnat's on an elephant's butt? LOL), well gee whiz, maybe WYNN's results 2Q were not as good as some thought when they were released two weeks ago. Really? Some might recall this "news" here 3 wks ago. So MGM's weak Macau results the only part of the four U.S. listed companies' reports any analyst (excl Bain) actually understood?

    At this "piercing insights and timely analysis" level of "research", in another couple of weeks Tang may figure out that Vegas VIP for the second Q actually did not mark the start of a robust secular or cyclical recovery for Vegas gaming revenue. In that regard, she may, only then, become the "thought leader" on the companies with significant Macau and U.S. operations. LOL

    She also lowered pretty much the rest of the group PT to current levels. Brilliant (not). This is an almost exact replay of the herd all slashing estimates and PT for the group during the summer of 2012, just in time for the start of the 18 month rally leading to a 250% RIP for MPEL shares and more than a double on WYNN, MGM and LVS.

  • Reply to

    Border crossing consideration

    by grftt Aug 18, 2014 11:18 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 22, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    Good to hear from you here Dave. There is so much bs on this board it is down to about 1 post a day worth scanning. Too bad the old white men freeforum club won't let the yahoo dufus reside there. That way he'd have all his old friends back! LOL

    As for Macau, Ho is winking about the completions coming... add to the Industrial Zone idea you shared above say a new bridge and a rail and soon there will be legit access and flow to Macau.

  • Reply to

    reasons for pcln going red in recent days

    by adavidson_nyc Aug 22, 2014 8:41 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 22, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    adavidsonnyc

    Recall we said EXPE was stupid cheap at $48 12 months ago and that TRIP was dumb selloff down to $sub 80 again (esp on the prior CC before guidance -- LOL) and now we have a quick head fake stall on consumer discretionary over the last few days... We said time to reload AAPL at $389, too, remember? LOL MPEL (our only stuggle this year but still own the core at $17 and the trading sleeve now at sub $31) is about to do a multiyear dazzle as well.

    As for pcln? It was $1100 only a couple of months ago... and we said the gifting done by shorts and arbs on the OPEN deal down around $1180 was easy money too... see my threads on "chart" and "time to own this large (again)" for a quick look back.

    PCLN is kicking #$%$ despite weak EU, bs middle east/Ukraine noise, etc., and it has a couple hundred bucks run higher coming... all those with weak knees should be out before that... those who want to ride to horse higher should consider adding while the stock is still cheap relative to sandbagged guided growth.

    PT $1400 the week of 4Q earnings report.

  • Reply to

    Just getting going again -- EXPE and PCLN too

    by squeezetracker May 23, 2014 11:09 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 22, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    What a joy.. hope the shorts are having fun on this, expe, pcln, the airlines, and our other key allocations this year.

    MPEL is the only one in the group not smoking shorts (YET) since March... shorts will soon be torched on that too. LOL

  • Reply to

    August GGR and market share to date

    by drjackcar Aug 19, 2014 6:53 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 21, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    We have owned MPEL, LVS and WYNN many times over the years. No other company is as well positioned as MPEL is in terms of the next 18 months and programmed percentage increases in footprint expansion (Macau AND Manila), ebitda, adj ebitda, footprint expansion, and, toward the end of that period, adj EPS.

    Your comments on MSC 2017-18 must be referring to the "expansion phase" they just began talking about in the 10k. The "initial" phase will have 1100 rooms, but the capex budget for the expansion phase implies twice as much construction budget. To be clear, the "initial phase will hit the ground at full throttle in mid 2015 (NOT 2017 or 2018).

    As for the group, things are so hammered they are all buys, but of the four U.S. listed companies, quality analysis would lead those with legit sector comprehension to conclude this order of preference: MPEL, WYNN and then LVS and MGM.

    Re your comments on LVS "dry spell", not sure what cyclical dip you are referring to, but we owned it 100% net long for the run from $38 to $72, selling out early, but then reloading it for the second bump from low $70s to $80 when they finally pulled Shel's nutty Spain idea that we suggested was hutrting the stock from $80 back to below $70...

    Again, we think straightforward analysis makes it obvious MPEL is poised to outperform the group, but WYNN is the second stock we'd add if we were adding another name in the sector.

  • Reply to

    CHART FUN: PCLN READY TO RIP (AGAIN)

    by squeezetracker Jun 28, 2014 12:39 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 21, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    In addition to the brazilbound joker, now we have another genius saying that "TA says sell"...

    No, it does not. The stock is jcall it 1% below the recent pivot (buy point), and now consolidating recent gains... and likely will soon RIP past the pivot at ~$1291.

    Our PT is $1400 by the Dec Q earnings call.

  • Reply to

    August GGR and market share to date

    by drjackcar Aug 19, 2014 6:53 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 20, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    MPEL's focus on elite mass/premium play is not yet even close to valued appropriately, but that discount will fade with ongoing execution. With the new revelations last week that MPEL is "repurposing" Altira for the big VIP operators -- with mass/premium mass being the focus of COD and,next year, Studio City, MPEL will be in the A1 slot on Macau...

    Fun to read the VIP recovery already underway in Macau as Deutsche's Tang published Monday night.

  • Reply to

    EX- DIV IS 8/21/14

    by cronjms Aug 20, 2014 8:50 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 20, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    Jim, the ex date sounds right as that would be 3 business days before the record date. Consult your broker if it matters to anyone.

    Excerpt from the MPEL PR:

    DECLARATION AND PAYMENT OF QUARTERLY DIVIDEND
    Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that on August 7, 2014, the board of directors of the Company (the “Board”) considered and approved the declaration and payment of a quarterly dividend of US$0.0259 per ordinary share of the Company for the second quarter of 2014 (the “Quarterly Dividend”).

    The Quarterly Dividend will be paid on or about September 4, 2014 to the shareholders of the Company (the “Shareholders”) whose names appear on the register of members of the Company at the close of business on August 25, 2014, being the record date for determination of entitlements to the Quarterly Dividend...

    The payment of the Quarterly Dividend will be made in Hong Kong dollars for the Shareholders and in United States dollars for the holders of American Depositary Share(s) of the Company (“ADS”), each of which presents three ordinary shares...

    The Quarterly Dividend of approximately US$0.0777 per ADS, less any applicable fees and charges, will be paid on or about September 4, 2014 by the depositary, in cash in US dollars, to ADS holders of record as of August 25, 2014 in accordance with the deposit agreement.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Aug 19, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    Several interesting changes of late...

    Pimco was on only 75k shares at 3/31 and went out of thiose shares as of June 30. Yet their comments on Macau and MPEL in particular have been very Pimco-esque and bullish of late... likely they have been buying a bunch down another couple bucks below still lower 50d ema ($32.60).

    Cap Re sold out roughly 20% of their large position. We will not be surprised to see them be the big seller of late. They have been on large almost two years now and have a big gain in it... but we also will not be surprised if they were selling out from $37 down to $31 last Q and are now adding it back.

    Several momo/trading oriented players who rushed in after 12/31 sold down or out in the March 13Fs, a happenstance that continued during the June Q as seen in the filings. We are glad to see them out as the sector is specialty niche and choppy up and down when momo dweebs chase it chasing this in Feb/March this year as noted here back then. The good news is that just as they chased it too hard, too fast above $40 back then, they are also now trying to press the sub $30 bets.

    Importantly, in our view, many longtime investors in the niche added seriously to their positions during the June Q, with such positions put on between $31 and $37... they (and we) are playing for more than a 10% bump in our view... they are in for the real ride higher now overdue to resume.

    Since the drop below $30, and, as stated earlier, have no box or paired short offsets to the long... same with our longtime pals in this sector. The stock remains ridiculously oversold and grinding along the bottom down here, but for how many more days? LOL Hopefully MPEL is a long way to using the $500m buyback plan before the next SH meeting where they will likely renew the authority/$ amt.

    Out PT remains $40 before Feb ends, with the footnote that $50 is certainly doable f12m. Fun to see Bain lower his f12m estimate a "whopping" $3, all the way down to $54/share.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 19, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    Search Studio City Tables for good threads on the topic; this one is on point & so were Ho's "get our share +" comments about 400+ tables for MSC on the CC last week. More?

    It is also established that the "table limits" are not a legislated or even enforced policy; they are annual table authorization "guidelines" only and have been surpassed since inception.

    Central planners and Macau officials can flap their wings and gums, but the reality is that CASINO GAMING is what makes Macau the draw and revenue/commerce creator that it is -- not just for gov't coffers, for ALL Macau's cash registers and surrounding developments, too.

    As the infrastructure developments are completed, there should be plenty of business not just for Cotai but the Penninsular too (notice how Steve Wynn continually emphasizes they will stay focused on developing that and now Altira is being "repurposed" for the bigger VIP tour operators?) and people should be able to ingress/egress and move around the island without gridlock worse than West L.A. during rush hour. This will ease the local politician noise about constraining anything about tourism/visitation.

    MPEL's COD and soon Studio are "models" for creating more than just big casinos. Same with WYNN's new Paradise Resort "lake" with Bellagio-like appeal for all visitors to take in while there. Arguably no one gets it as much as MPEL, but all the big guys get it with giving employees big comp adjs (notice no brashness ala Steve or protests ala Shel at MPEL's properties?). As an aside, these mean peanuts to the adj ebitda math.

    N.B. that MPEL's current relative valuation on ebitda metrics is as if incremental adj ebitda from SC will not happen. Another way of saying that is if none of the casinos get any new table allotment, WYNN should get cut about in half before MPEL should drop any further. Same for MGM and close to same for LVS.

    MSC's "expansion phase" should be amongst the final Macau tables granted for Macau (2018).

  • Reply to

    the MPEL part

    by drjackcar Aug 15, 2014 8:50 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Bain's comments here are profound and right on for those who understand the business... The last three paragraphs emphasize the key points I have been making about what the media and dippy "analysts" have called the "weakest performance of the group" during the 2Q...

    It has been a great time for us to grab shares...

    Meanwhile, the 2Q 13Fs are on file now. Much to glean, but the easy summary is that during the Q many strong and longtime sector investors added while lots of hotter money left (stock traded between 31 and 39). Disappointing to see Cap Re bail on 20% of their allocation and perhaps they cont selling it out in recent months, but also wouldn't be surprised to see them adding it back down here at the goof levels. Less

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    Jim,
    You are welcome. Did you see the "table permit" question and Ho's lucid answer to that below? Ho has made it clear he thinks they are all set, about like Steve Wynn has done with the new WYNN property, except without the bravado Steve shared on the table topic.

    As we have said for years, MPEL (Ho) and WYNN (Steve) are smooth and good at getting what they need... other companies seem to have trouble getting their permits prior to doing work (LVS) and or trouble getting construction crews going timely enough to gain any comfort with completion dates, projecting the latter onto others (MGM's Murren commentary last call) . Not so with Lawrence and Steve - both have said their programs are on budget and on time AND, whether detractors like it or not, both Lawrence and Steve have said they are "highly confident" they will get the tables they need to complete their new IR showcase resorts on Cotai.

    Have I mentioned that the definition of "Integrated Resort" includes gaming and casinos facilities? LOL

  • Reply to

    Altria "Repositioning"

    by squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:42 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    Now that the transcript is available, i'll suggest longs ought to consider doing themselves the favor of reading the transcript -- the parts about Ho's view of what has happened to near term growth and what he sees for next year as the infrastructure projects and new properties are opened [and repositioned] is fun reading.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Altria, MPEL's other 5 Star rated property on Macau, continued to have tables sent over to booming COD on the cotai strip and put up disappointing numbers for the Q, but Ho's comments on Altria were illuminating. From the scripted commentary on the Q call:

    "Turning to Altria. In addition to the companywide table optimization process, we are also repositioning Altira to focus more exclusively on larger junkets, who are better positioned to complete in this evolving market. We believe that Altria remains one of the most luxurious hotel and VIP gaming properties in Macau, and we anticipate these changes to the property's positioning will ensure it can compete strongly in this segment of the market."

    COD manila opening in 3 months is great news... but in less than 12 months forward, MPEL will have the initial phase of Studio City opened, all of the enhancements at COD Cotai done (excl Tower 5 scheduled for 2017 completion) and and have Altria transformed from the "luxury penninsular property" to the ultra deluxe venue focused "more exclusively on larger junkets." Starts to look like everything they do is part of a grand plan... "shaping the future of Asian gaming," doesn't it...

  • Reply to

    the MPEL part

    by drjackcar Aug 15, 2014 8:50 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    Jim,
    I just posted Ho's comments on Studio City from the earnings call last week. His comments on the permits and tables are lucid.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    Tang, DB Analyst
    "One of the key permit would be the number of table quota, can you remind us at what stage before opening should we be expecting that number?

    Yau Lung Ho - Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
    Karen, I think, on that front the Macau Government is still thinking about their strategy and also talking to the leadership in China about the quota. But based on what they have guided all these years with the table cap, I think they will allocate the tables accordingly to the diversity -- the diversification and neatness of the property. We still -- we're very confident that we'll get our fair share of those tables. But the Macau Government have not communicated with us or the properties that are opening next year. I anticipate and again, this is a best guess, that we'll probably find out, probably 9 months ahead of time. But at this point in time, we still have the property -- our property. Studio City can accommodate a capacity of 500 tables. Are we going to get 500 tables? We, honestly, don't know. But I think from a fair share standpoint, and I think we will all going to pull above our weight on the fair share, we've always guided that we hope to get 400 tables or more."

    It is subtle, but here Ho is making it clear that the govt has not officially entitled ANY operators on the table allocations; he is also making it plain as day that Studio City is EXACTLY the kind of proud showcase of being more than just a big casino can be when a developer goes out of its way to address the desires of the macau and Central Chinese govt officials to have Macau become more than just a series of large gaming facilities. Everyone knows that gaming is the big draw, but the companies likely to get big table allocations, at least as Ho lays out here, is going to be all about meeting govt requirement that ENTERTAINMENT venues be an integral par of all new IR complexes on Macau. Love Ho's understated "confidence" here... the "Asian Way."

  • MGM and LVS' recent news on fumbling with construction delays and lacking timely permits is in stark contrast to Ho, the favored one, and MPEL's handling and execution.

    Here's what he said about staying on track timing wise for Studio City:

    "I think luckily for us, we -- and not luckily because we've always acted in the best faith and we follow all the rules from the Macau Government. We've got all of our construction permits. And each step of the way, when we got the foundation permit, that's when we do the foundation work. When we get the upper floor permit, that's when we do it. So we've never really kind of disobeyed or moved away from the rules. And I think, then that's why whether it's from a labor code standpoint or construction progress standpoint, we are firing at full speed. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we have begun setting out both hotels rooms and also in the main gaming and retail areas. So we are -- we're very happy. We're happy with the progress. So in terms of that backlog, it's no secret. There's plenty of development in Macau and the government is very hard -- trying very hard to clear up the backlog, and there's a huge backlog. But for us, thankfully, since we followed every step of the way, we don't need -- we don't have any outstanding permits that we require from a construction standpoint."

    He also made it clear they are now finalizing the gaming floor and entertainment layouts, including his expectations of how many tables they anticipate getting as a key part of the showcase of Macau govt/ MPEL development partnership this "Integrated Resort" (MSC) will be on opening... cont..

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 14, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Seriously now... what F moron would thumbs that learned, helpful and very objective reply? I can't wait until Yahoo starts publishing these dip S ratings. At least they gave readers the umlimited ignore bucket last year. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 14, 2014 7:14 AM Flag

    Crown Resorts is largely a hotel company, not "casino" operator. Packer's company relies on MPEL for earnings and MPEL's dividend for cash flow.

    Search "Crown Resorts" and Cosmopolitan here to learn more about Packer and Crown.

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