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squeezetracker 254 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 minutes ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • Longs ought to listen to the replay if you missed the call just now, but this conference call handling was excellent with great updates on many important aspects of this company's future.

    1. Mkt share: Taking share across the board: mass, RC (VIP) and machines.

    2. Record Table drop and machines at record levels at COD Cotai.

    3. Altira: has had many VIP rooms offline during repositioning effort to focus on the biggest, quality junkets, but they will all be back operating as of next week. Sun City is ready to go there now, and another large operator (no announcement as of yet) will make it 3 of the 4 largest tour operators doing business at Altira now, with 2 all new salons. The naysayers can't figure it out, but those bringing legitimate (non-crooks) in on quality tours in compliance with all applicable rules/screening/funding sources are continuing to play in Macau, and MPEL is taking share these days.

    4. Studio City Tables -- Expect to get at least 400 tables, optimal is 500, but if less, "as licensee" (says Lawrence) they can still move tables from other locales, but the comments about MPEL shareholders first tells macau officials they need to be "fair and reasonable" to avoid crimping style for SC. In other words, MPEL will continue to focus its table allocations on its 100% owned properties if forced to allocate them within all of its properties. See #5 below.

    5. "Diversification and Other "Tickmakrks": Ho explains here why SC offers up more "tourism/family entertainment diversification than the rest of Macau COMBINED." Makes the clear case MPEL should do as well or better than any other company on getting tables for SC (not mentioned was Phase 2 in the balance).

    6. Macaunese People Development: Big tickmark here. Says LT retention plan was a smash hit vs ST bonuses and that MPEL is developing its employees and has excellent relations with them and the "happiest employees on Macau." Says not concerned about finding new staff for needs.

    cont

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 12, 2015 9:19 AM Flag

    great update this morning!

  • Reply to

    Anyone else go short at end of day, yesterday?

    by dthe98 Feb 11, 2015 10:21 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 11, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    ok ShirleyJaneTatetoastdrjack,

    Just "feeling good" about shorting the absolute top yesterday? Ya, okay dude.

    What happened to your "happy to be short" at $20? and you must have forgotten that under this dthe98 alias you used to feign being an old #$%$ with Fox News conservatism as your point of knowledge and point of view on world currency markets, economic policy and political posturing of china and the U.S. govt. Now you have migrated to where all of your aliases are just a little smart #$%$ who sucks at debate, makes a jack#$%$ out of himself with all of them, and hides behind 10 or so known aliases trying to avoid everyone seeing what a little dip S you are.

    As for your little trading insights here today? LOL What of the desperado "bashing" (more at little girl squirming) of WYNN results down about $10 last week? Short that one last night at the top too? ROTFLOL And the items you list that will cause vomiting over the next two months? All known items JaneTate/toast/drjack... they were the premise for morons to short this down to $20 twice, where smarter money went large and pulled hedges on this again.

    Just a hunch, but the vomit likely ahead is going to be all over your own little lap and shoes while you spew more of your multialias dialogue with yourself in a brew of bs contrition, conflation and ad hominem bs.

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo vs Union gaming

    by dthe98 Feb 10, 2015 9:35 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 11, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    Shirley,
    nothing new there... in fact, most of that was said by Lawrence Ho on the June Q conference call.

    But read your #$%$ agin... the "new normal" is actually the bull case for companies focused on Macau mass play -- MPEL front of the pack on that metric with 85% of adj ebitda coming from mass last Q, a number (adj for smoking rooms that is) sure to increase for them on Macau rolling forward.

    More? The "value guys" are already in hard here... these guys (LOL) are the ones scooping up shares the shorting geniuses have been sourcing for us. ROTFLOL The "incremental buyers", the momentum dopes that chased this above $40 last yer (twice) and then shorted it below $26 (twice) are all conflated and buried on their shorts, just like you here.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 11, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    You (casinos, VIP tour operators, banks, customers) play by the rules, or you will be found out...

    And no Shirley, they don't execute people for gambling... that is why mass is still going solid (adj for smoking floor reclasses of VIP tables), and why some 75% of VIP RCT continues in the ten largest VIP tours that dominate the Macau landscape, even though your little IKGH catastrophy (how about that conflated contrition boy) has you bewildered. The violent and otherwise abhorrent crimes Lui Han and his pals were convicted of is what got them their fates... not money transfers, some of which may have run through Macau bank channels and were found through Beijing/Macau's longstanding review policies.

    Anyone paying attention (and not trying to deceive folks here) can discern that VIP is not MPEL's story on Macau -- they are ahead of EVERY OTHER COMPANY, including LVS, in terms of deriving best in group table revenue and adj ebitda relative to footprint because they have been (for years now) and will remain focused on "the premium end" of mass visitation, entertainment and gaming.

    Manila? Early days and VIP will matter there, especially if Beijing continues to press the "golden goose" there with restrictive policy mandates while routing out the bad guys... but Manila is already surprising the naysayers, they just don't know it yet.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 11, 2015 8:23 AM Flag

    Shirley Mason (dthe98/JaneTate/toast/drjackcar etc) suggests that no one with money will game in Macau for fear of being executed. That is sounding incredibly desperate now Shirley...even as the stock is up some 30% from the double bottom retest where you told us you were "still short and very happy." Close to stupifying...

    EVERYONE knows that endless noise elements (smoking bans, unauthorized UnionPay card swipers and other scrutiny, visa "restrictions", triad money transfers, review of all bank transfers and a host of other items that have been under review for years now) and certainly Xi Jinping's "corruption crackdown" has had a chilling effect on VIP and premium mass (direct credit) play in Macau. That is not news. It is why GGR is down by what Lawrence Ho called a "plummet"... what is news is that the group is now moving up (again, MPEL up 30% despite the WYNN/LVS "bad news" on Dec Q and the Vegas news awful to boot) long before even mass GR begins to turn up, let alone VIP RCT.

    Here's what this desperate little Shirley Mason guy fails to grasp (at least with his underhanded postings here and on other boards/forums) about GGR. EVERYONE is figuring out that guys like Lui Han, convicted of complicity in murdering at least 8 people, harboring military grade weapons and explosives, conspiracy charges involving blackmail and interaction with cronies -- the latter now serving time after "ratting out" Han and 4 others executed two days ago -- and "protection" from the former Minster of Security (Zhou) who, along with lots of Xi Jinping's politcal foes, has been in PRC detention as noted here going back to last summer... are not going to be gambling in Macau or anywhere else for a long time if ever. None of the Beijin tiger and flies that went the way of roof jumping are going to be gaming either.

    And yes, it is clear that anyone who interacted with these guys and others in same boat want to be seen anywhere with money on display. The message is clear...

  • Reply to

    Turnaround

    by grftt Jan 27, 2015 7:38 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    great share here Dave.

  • Reply to

    "City of Dreams Manila Visionaries"

    by squeezetracker Feb 3, 2015 9:51 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    in case you missed it

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    If you missed it, see my follow up thread on the 5 really "corrupt" murderers, weapons abusers, fraud conspirators, blackmailers and subversive activities that the Beijing regime decided to execute yesterday...

    The former Security Minister of china (~ the equivalent of the U.S. CIA/FBI directors) has also been in detention since late July, timed about to the day the macau names began to really drop... now that the key Tigers and Flies surrounding these corruption lynchpins are going down hard together, and all of the noise about corruption throughout china is perhaps peaking as we write, just maybe the worst of the bs media and lame analyst reporting on the "crackdown" will begin to abate in time for the smartest of them to save what they have left of their face...

    Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has all their big clients back in the shares as of their january call that (1) the sky is not falling on Macau, (2) there is no big bad wolf unless one is a #$%$, and (3) it is time to get back in the pool for the ride to a materially stronger 2H15.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    another perspective worth thinking about...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    bump for those just hearing the MPEL name... it won;t take you long to figure out the handful of posters worth reading here...

  • Reply to

    A littlt perspective on the February Comp

    by squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Read this and then read the dip #$%$ article from james Detar in IBD. Look for Shuli renn to write about how awful February comps will be at least 4 more times before march as well. LOL

  • goog that title to read more about why Lui han was a big tiger... but his connectivity the biggest "tiger" as the real target of Xi Jinping, is telling. Former national Security Minister Zhou being the BIG BIG target of Xi Jinping's corruption crackdown. And for all the dip #$%$ media and analysts regurgitating their nonsense about Macau being the target of the "tigers and flies" corruption witch hunt and also the "foxhunt" running down billionaires the PRC is chasing around the world to get back the allegedly stolen money they "illicitly transferred" away from China, give a good hard read to the articles in the WSJ, FT, Guardian and The Economist on "execution of Lui Han" over the last two days. Some may appreciate, as we do, the fact that those real publications writing about the execution yesterday and the pursuit of Zhou and his lesser cronies has no mention at all of Macau or gambling per se being the issue that Beijing is hunting. Rather, the focus here is all about murder, conspiracy, subversion, other violent crimes and extortion/blackmail, and weapons charges as well as defrauding the PRC and stealing the people's wealth. Well, one of the articles does point out that Lui Han was infamous for flaunting his mink coats and exotic cars and fancy dining habits.

    Some of the long time readers here may enjoy that focus as much as we do... and the reality that Macau is being rendered a whistle clean place for tourists to visit grandeur, entertainment and luxurious relaxation, shopping, dining and recreation -- and MPEL is leading the charge on meaningful "diversification" with Studio City.

  • Reply to

    A littlt perspective on the February Comp

    by squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 7:37 AM Flag

    Hey Dave,
    We look forward to the update... glad to have you, crjms and the 4-5 other longtimers here to make the board worthwhile and offer up real perspective vs intentionally deceptive bs and counterpoint to the dippy media and analysts' biases. Looking forward to far brighter days ahead for Macau and Manila -- and MPEL in particular.

  • Reply to

    A littlt perspective on the February Comp

    by squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 10, 2015 7:34 AM Flag

    Jim,
    Prior to my comments yesterday, how many "analysts" or media outlets have pointed out this caendar effect this year? If you guessed none, zero, then you are correct. If you begin to see a few begin to make this point over the next few days, you'll have further insight that several of them -- along with exec management and IR of these companies and more than a few portfolio managers are monitoring these sites (even the LVS mess, and maybe even lvsforum). Sometimes you can lead a horse to water and he will drink; others times "bricking the #$%$" does the trick.

    On this board, "toast" (called out by "puthimon" here and on the IKGH board) as being one and the same poster calling himself a multitude of aliases here and on IKGH as well as other boards, is also drjackcar, JaneTate, dthe98, brinerbriner and at least a handful of other aliases) has several recurrent themes but is currently emphasizing the YOY drop in the first week of February as if it is going to be an unmitigated disaster for Macau and MPEL (and other cos). Although keeping track of his different "personalities" has caught up with him as those paying attention have now connected the dots in these forums, he continues to use many of the old ones and is now adding new aliases, the better to carry on his now trademark conversations with himself.

    Shirley Mason's posting makes it clear he is either personally short or being paid to spin that bias. On his JaneTate "glad to finally be short here" post, he makes the point himself. dth98's flailings here and on the WYNN board are equally transparent. In total, Shirley's posting, and makes a great case that yahoo should allow only one alias per board. That change would be the single biggest thing yhoo could do to improve their product, and make it so morons could not sign in 9 times to post thumbs up or down on posts at odds with their agenda. On that last point, if one uses the thumbs to screen, use the sum of up & down thumbs. LOL

  • Reply to

    not so great

    by toast22342000 Feb 9, 2015 8:57 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    Funniest Part: "VIP is "on life support after 16% of junkets closed in 2014." Still the 10 largest junkets control 80% of VIP peak, and still those guys are all operating in compliance with the rules and do not have any witchhunt or even Foxhunt chasing them.... Not that VIP really matters to MPEL in Macau for much these days, but they are catering to a few big tours at Altira. As for all the little S junkets? They are gone from Macau and didn;t matter to MPEL anyway... BFD

  • Reply to

    not so great

    by toast22342000 Feb 9, 2015 8:57 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    The young lady who wrote that "Business Insider" is even weaker than Shuli Renn! and here is the rest of the incredibly weak sauce repeats rehashing the same old bs noise that Shuli must have covered at least 20x as if it was "new" every time.

    But you know better Shirley JaneTate and all the rest of yous... it is VIP in the marginal tours "missing" from GGR on Macau, NOT the big 10 tours controlling 80% or so of Macau VIP play, NOT visitation or gaming by mass players. So here you hack out the bs dthe98 (another Shirley Mason registrant) spewed about solicitation of mainlanders as if that is new and leave out all this blithering poo? Read my shout down of the bs there. ROTFLOL

    For everyone other than Shirley, on that predicate, read what this dip stick from Bus Insider wrote over the weekend. Should have titled it "The Sky is Falling as told by Shuli Renn 37 times and now here again as if relevant to the future of Macau."

    "And Chinese gamblers apparently won't be going to Macau as much to gamble, either. Xi's government has sworn to cut down on advertisements — sometimes in the form of annoying text messages — promoting Macau casinos. Visa restrictions will tighten, according to analysts, and even retail gamblers will have their money tracked as officials monitor UnionPay, the only domestic bank card in mainland China.

    The latest announcement goes above and beyond the pain Xi's administration has already put Macau's casinos, and the world's casino companies, through over the past year. The president's anticorruption crackdown has slowed the movement of mainlanders to the island — the world's largest gambling center — dramatically.

    Gaming revenue in Macau contracted for the first time since foreign companies were allowed to do business on the island in 2002. It plummeted 30% in December alone. The junket system, Macau's financing system for high rollers most affected by the anticorruption drive, is on life support after 16% of junkets closed in 2014."

  • Reply to

    A littlt perspective on the February Comp

    by squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 9, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    Two more points...

    Even dismissing the offline/refurb parts of the WYNN property down on the Penninsular (they have no Cotai property until the Palace opens mid 2016 they say now) ,those with a little bit of comprehension of the difference between WYNN.LVS and MPEL's business plans and execution last year certainly expected WYNN to fare poorly vs LVS given that the vast brunt of the GGR drop has been from the smaller junkets getting clobbered out of business or going where they have less scrutiny over their operations and clients, and the chilling effects the noise and corruption crackdowns on macau have had on VIP play there.

    On this note, MPEL's COD on Cotai is the only company that ran at 100% occupancy throughout 2014, with a 30-40% average turnaway rate. We also know they have continued to further de-emphasize VIP at COD, meaning that the VIP slowdown has crimped MPEL's overall revenue and, far more importantly, overall ebitda far less than WYNN and even LVS. Old news, but MPEL likely ran on the order of 90% of its ebitda from mass and adjusted (for smoking rooms) premium mass play (direct credit players).

    Looking forward to more color on COD manila come Thursday too... Ho has said a few things the analyst community is not yet taking note of, including that COD Manila is "already exceeding our expectations" and that he expects Manila overall to exceed the Philippine gaming regulator's forecast of GGR for 2016 and that COD Manila will add more than another 1/3+ to that baseline forecast. Do your own math on what that means to MPEL, but if Ho is correct, every analyst out there will be increasing their estimates for COD MPEL before long...

  • To clarify for those who don't know, the 1-2 week lull before the annual CNY celebrations were in January last year because the CNY fell on Friday, January 31,2014. This also at least partially explained why jan. 2014 GGR growth of 7% was soft enough for the weaker analysts to lower estimates and ratings saying Macau GGR growth trend of mid teens% was over, precipitating the drop in the secotr during Feb with MPEL going from $45 back to $37 as chronicled here.

    Longtimers know that set up the buzzsaw of February's GGR growth of 42% YOY due to the full month og GGR falling after the CNY, the crescendo ramp of LVS' new properties on the Cotai Strip, and no Beijing Foxhunt or Tigers and Flies crackdown yet announced, no shady VIP killed off or chill effect yet, nor any roof jumpers/shut down private clubs, or any of the other, less meaningful "noise" (e.g., unauthorized Unionpay card swipes, smoking bans, visa restrictions not understood, Hong Kong Unbrella protest, 25th anniversary Tianamen square observance, World Cup games, Vegas houses pulling VIP tours to Vegas for April through June, and then Zhou arrest making the real statement that crooks are done absconding with illicitly obtained PRC funds, whether they were off to Macau or anywhere else.

    This year the CNY falls on February 19th. That means the lull before the CNY celebrations begin is going to be entirely in Feb's run up to the 19th. In context, the combined effects of the lack of new properties coming on line over the last 18 months, the 1-2 week "lull" shift ahead of the CNY and lapping of the big big comp from Feb 2014 means the February numbers vs last year will be tough.

    Some may want to think thru whether a tough Feb comp is a good reason to sell out Macau names ahead of the catalysts coming right up now in the form of Macau having a very wholesome, cleaned up act, new properties coming on line in '15 incl MPEL's Studio City and mass visitation and play running solid despite all the bs.

  • DreamWorks opens first indoor theme park in City of Dreams Manila
    goog title for cool pics and article

    February 7, 2015 1:44pm

    Kids and the kids at heart can soon learn how to fly a dragon and cook some cookies with Gingy at DreamWorks DreamPlay, the animation studio's indoor theme park at the newly-opened City of Dreams Manila.

    Dubbed by Gist.Ph as DreamWork's first theme park in the world, the interactive play space offers attractions from its various animated franchises, themed activities, and even 4D theaters.

    Munchkins wishing to learn kung #$%$ with The Furious Five and Po can climb the Vertical Wall of Awesomeness and tackle Shi#$%$'s Training Hall.

    Fans of How To Train Your Dragon can become a dragon rider with How To Fly Your Dragon, while those more fond of ancient reptiles can try fixing a few dinosaurs with the DinoTrux Repair Game.

    Shrek fans can help the grumpy ogre grab his keys after stomping through his swamp, but if hiking seems too bothersome, then the Penguins of Madagascar would gladly accept help in building a new boat.

    After a long day of play, parents and kids can eat at the DreamWorks Cafe or even hold a party at themed private rooms fit for 70 persons.

    DreamWorks DreamPlay will open its doors in March. — Rie Takumi/VC, GMA News

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