Are you being paid to tout that forum?
Call it prejudicial, and i rarely scan that forum, but most of the posting there is from the LVS' cheerleader club comprised of the old guys from the yhoo board... Only a few can handle anyone offering contrary perspective (those few are refreshing) and most of those guys have been calling LVS the only stock to own in the group since $83 (they did the same thing in 2012 at $72 on the way back to $36, and then cheered Shel's Spain ambitions and then tried to dis quality posters from ignorance for pointing out the folly of that empire building idea). Further, I've never seen any of them remotely discuss hedging/taking gains or do anything except attempt to put LVS' competitors down as witness mr taxxx and his pals trying to dis MPEL and its Studio City there and right here on this board without realizing that the table allocation issue creates ridiculously unnecessary FUD for all developers building the 8 new properties on Macau... yeah... even LVS' Parisian has the problem -- assuming they can continue to overcome their construction permits/approvals and macau protest problems they seem to encounter of late.
Here readers have several quality posters discussing relevant pros and cons, including grftt and drjackcar, and putting just matrixtrade and his little friend mytek/blacknite/tahoe/nycdolt and the rest of the aliases those little girls on AOL, aka putzes, on ignore renders a very clean and worthwhile board.
As for the kindaguyheam you have so much concern about? His posts don't add much to any meaningful conversation or analysis, but at least he has a sense of humor, and once in a while a new alias of his even has something of relevance to share...
Have a look at the Sep Q 13F filings -- fun if you are long. 20 of the top 25 Holders (incl 11 of the top 15) added shares during the Q, dwarfing sales of the top 25 MM.
Consider that during the Q this stock dropped hard from a high of $36 to $27 -- the low -- at the end of the Q. Seems we are not the only ones realizing that the sky is not falling on China or Macau, and that still some 80% of VIP GGR remains intact while mass is still growing YOY, that MPEL is better positioned than ANY OTHER Macau name, Manila is likely to generate more revenue than the ~$30m/Q opex cost of COD Manila (and might even have a little bit of ROIC on top of that? LOL) and that Beijing and Macau officials will soon be under increasing pressure to back off the bs witchunt, especially since the "corruption crackdown" reviews have yielded less than 1% (690) of some 75,000 suspects and politicians investigated through President Jinping's September report, and the political benefit of chasing the bad guys is soon going to collide with budget and spending cuts in and around Macau -- i.e., unless they soon wind up the witch hunt, tell citizenry it is okay to game in Macau (remember, half of house winnings are collected as tax revenue for Macau) the table allocations and all the rest.
So, prior to Xi's visit in December, might the recent $24 low get retested? It's possible, but fun to point out the stock (and the group) is rallying into the worst growth numbers in years in November and while all of the sellside analysts are throwing in their dirty towels now (shades of early Fall 2012 as said prior here), the reassuring (for other pm) 13Fs show all that there are literally dozens of serious buyside players doubling down or coming back onto the stock with vigor, and they will be buying all people will short to them... and those with offset shorts/hedges still on will pull them once the RIP higher gets going.
Have a good weekend longs. MPEL's RSI ought to be fun into the Feb report...
see ggrasia article titled "Macau govt drafts cautious budget on weaker GGR: Chui" for a nice update to this line of thinking...
84% of Macau tax revenue is directly from gaming... a they say increased tourism is helping "other" sources of revenue? The new regime needs to be very good taking care of the Golden Goose that gaming represents -- not just for the existing Integrated Casino Resorts, but also for the second wave of 8 projects currently under development Macau, and even moreso for the entire development effort surrounding Macau.
As said on other threads, they can wish in one hand that they had focsued more on diversification prior to having the entire Macau land bank committed, but that is like wanted to stuff a large elephant into a small tutu and asking it to dance on a tiny stool. LOL
Macau is all about gamng, whether they want to publicly acknowledge that or not... and EVERYONE paying attntion can see that MPEL has emphasized "entertainment" in their thoughful property development better and to a greater extent than any other company has on Macau. Good news when it comes to renewing gaming licenses and when the govt decides to cut the bs on table allocations since they need about 10x what the unenforced "3% annual ave guldeline" represents out to 2022 -- and they need to grant most of that over the next 3 years as the "second wave" of 8 new properties is opened to the public.
it is time for an end to the table allocation bs this guy made into a joke... Macau is all about gaming and gaming revenue for Macau, and the few companies (LVS, MPEL and WYNN) actually incorporating MCE (LVS) or quality entertainment (MPEL) and say WYNN's 8 acre lake as additive to the scene there are truly adding to the "big casinos" most companies have built there desrve at least their fair share of tables...
Enjoyed your post on Francis Tam yesterday... he should be gone already and hope you are right because a fresh start will eliminate the bs re table allocations. "Fair and reasonable," sans political bs, is where local officials and Xi need to land as discussed on other threads.
Re my comment on yhoo:
Final comment we'll share on yhoo as discussed OT here with grftt) We doubled this on the way up at $39 last week, but yhoo is a great trade after the cfo's comments last night about enhancing yhoo share value by doing something tax efficient when they are at liberty to do so. They are locked out until 12 mo from the ipo, but they can do the certificate spinoff as soon as the new tax year if one reads through the cfo's encryption and then Marissa commenting "we let you know [the structure for spinning BABA] in january." With BABA at $95, the implied tax free value of the BABA shares is $38+, leaving YHOO Japan, tumblr and the other recent acquisitions to round out another $12 or so... and legacy YHOO comes "free" on SOTP.
In short, we think this roars to $50 if BABA powers to $100 soon, and if BABA just flatlines at $95ish, yhoo should get to no less than $50 by the Jan update. As with mpel, we'll suggest spec capital only."
fwiw, we just sold this small (as shared here, 12k with basis just below $39) at $51.40... it should continue to run though. With BABA at $115, the BABA shares they hold are worth $45/yahoo share (ignoring tax complexities). The upshot is that yhoo Japan is worth the spread to $51, so yhoo U.S., junk that it is, still comes free despite the $12+ run up since we put the position on as discussed here.
Good to see a little firming on the Macau stocks despite the ongoing mounds of bs and Jingping's ongoing witch hunt. And still 80% of VIP play continues... and as told by the MPEL guys, (and other companies) premium mass data is now impossible to compare vs PY and other companies, but still going along well.
missed your post amongst all of the little girl on AOL nonsense from matrix and his little mutlialias pal from Cambodia. LOL...
Manila is going to be better than the "not much" perspective the street has on this venue... last Q MPEL had $30m of opex for this site as they ramped up their ~5k employees training and operational preparedness... does anyone here, even little girl matrix and his multialias pal, think COD manila will not cover the opex nut plus their minimum hurdle on 20% ROIC once up the ramp? Anyone who thinks that ought to be short all they can muster down here at the mid 2013 low. LOL
This putz calling cronjm's comments "dumb" is a F riot and ironic as the day is long in summer at the North Pole.... Jim is one of the brightest, long time quality guys posting here, and 9the 98 is a F tool, whether it was his call for monetary stimulus causing economic collapse 18 months ago, the inanity between then and now, or now saying "The VIP's are not going to come back." His blithering inanity is right up there with matrixtrade, the geezer darling little girl on AOL and his multialias dipchit pal for having nothing to say worth reading. LOL
As for "The VIP's are not going to come back," if 9the 98 is not mentally impaired, he must mean the guys who (a) took themselves out with a jump off a tall building, (b) those who are corrupt and know Jinping's process will eventually run them down, (c) those who have fled China and hope the new extradition arrangements to bring them back for prosecution will remain on the run, or (d) those who are simply afraid of the unknown review process and wonder if they will get dragged down by their former business dealings with one of the crooks.... As for the ongoing corruption review, yeah, those taking bribes and getting "gifts" for political favors will be found out... bank account reviews without need for a sobpoena means that crooks will need to find a different country to be crooks in. LOL
But talk about "dumb comment"... dthe98 says that "The VIP's are not going to come back" when fully 80% of peak VIP tours operations are still running, even at the present nadir levels. (Incidentally, am I the only one who processed that Altira saw an increase vs June Q? LOL ) What happens when Xi Jinping visits in December, does this putz really think Xi is coming to say ~"the rest of you awipes should never come here to game again?" Wonders never cease...ROTFLOL at what a tool will write.
BABA is listed here in the U.S. Jack Ma's biggest new initiative to expand BABA's revenue pie is to establish alliances with Western companies/products, particularly those from America... Chinese people want aspirational American brands, and Jackl is signing up counterparties to make that happen from a distribution standpoint.
You mention MPEL has a "major advantage" by being a "china-based" stock... the shares are listed in HK all right, but they typicall trade less than 1% of the market value of shares traded in the U.S. as ADS on the "MPEL" symbol...
As for "bringing everything [else] home", if you have been following the APEC news for the last couple of years, and pointedly here, Jinping's speeches with world leaders and the consortium this week, they want to expand multilateral trade and eliminate import/export duties as much as possible these days in support of maximizing world growth -- obviously, with a special intent on the AP region.
Beyond those realities (not opinions), the fact that Lawrence Ho has his dad's legacy certainly does not hurt MPEL when it comes to consideration of expansion, permits, license renewals and the like... Lawrence is observably well-connected in that regard.
It has been apparent since Zhou and Chen's takedowns in late July that Jingping's political witchunt and "investigation" (a bank acoount rundown and review or cars/houses and club memberships) of 75,000 and counting potentially corrupt officials and "shady deals" would chill EVERYTHING about revealing financial wherewithal, including high roller gaming in Macau. The fear of the "caught" 690 implicating others is fully engaged now too. It is also apparent that the chill effects will continue as long as the "tigers and flies" eradication program continues.
What is still not processed by the sellside or the media parroting their cheesy "analysis" is that still 80% VIP play in Macau continues... and mass play remains solid based on the reliable data available. For last week after the shifting table counts between premium mass and VIP? That is like driving with a paper bag over one's head as mass totals and premium mass data comparability has been turned on its head with the smoking ban confusion and redesignations between premium mass tables vs VIP, so hard to say just what is happening with non-corrupt, non-spooked players on the direct credit side after September Q.
What do we know about mass/premium mass? Through Sep, total mass was UP 24% at COD yoy vs total market UP "only" 16% (UP, NOT DOWN). Did you see where machine play was up 25% (!) for MPEL last Q? Notably, MPEL's repositioning of Altira is now making progress on VIP there and MPEL's soft RC hold overall accounted for ~half the ebitda ease for the Q. MPEL's 3q #s also bear the burden of just shy of $30m of operating exp (incl 5k employees now) for Manila without any commensurate revenue until next month. All in, a solid report from mpel.
Perhaps some of the modest lift since the now double bottom low around $24 has something to do with APEC tone/tension easing, the buyside realizing these dynamics mean that teams the sky has not fallen in on Macau or this company, and MPEL's catalysts in 2014.
Yes it is very good news,especially since others are slipping despite trying to be more mass focused in MPEL's trailblazing path.
I've made the point before, but last year's numbers included the surge based on LVS' new properties coming up the ramp after introduction in 2012. Next year will include the new Galaxy and Studio City properties coming online... and just maybe Xi will make it clear that the new "office of corruption detection" or whatever they call it, is going to be focused on making sure shady dealings and bribes are largely a thing of the past with the 690 found to be corrupt out of the 75,000+ politicians investigated so far. What is the ongoing review? From now on, anyone making $60k/year as an influence peddler ought to be afraid of having far larger money flows into his bank accounts, showy cars, homes and lifestyles, and memberships to the "private clubs" now being monitored by wary eyes.
repeating myself, hopefully Xi is going to be bringing the "gift basket" to macau in December, but also more of the conciliatory tone he has been directing at world leaders during the APEC meetings this week. Macau will quickly be back to normal if that happens... and continue to "limp" along at 80% of peak 2013 VIP and single digit mass growth otherwise...
Hey toast and jim,
Barron's blogger article suggests shanghai trading is it, but the Asian exchange volumes are trivial vs ADS trading here.. An alternate view is that it seems likely more than trivial optimism is coming out of the APEC tone setting by President Xi Jinping. His "let's all get along" tone setting and private as well as group meetings between China and its long-disputed trade, territorial and other issues with Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Phillipines have all been the subject of upbeat press reports this week. Same as for meetings between Obama and Putin, and Xi with both of these guys and other leaders. Side bars galore on Xi talking about China growth "slowing" to 7% as an integral part of their remaking of their economy (service/consumerism vs production), intellectual property, innovation and technology sharing are also in the mix there...
Goog title for full article, but IBT and FT are also covering these stories on global sentiment:
Xi Jinping pushes China's FTA vision as APEC leaders meet
By PTI | 11 Nov, 2014, 03.11PM IST
[btw, Xi's "foxhunt" started in july... gee, d'ya suppose that since many of those absconding with money from corruption in china went to the U.S. might have stopped playing in Vegas about the time they began chasing the foxes out of their foxholes in July? Funny how the "Vegas resurgence" nonsense being touted by 4-5 of the weakest analysts in this weak analyst group all shut up about Vegas' recovery when tables games revenue actually went to negative 12% in August. Regardless, good to see the U.S and Xi holding hands on trade agreements, bilateral extradition treaties to send the bad guys and their money back to China, and the optimism tone set by Xi for the APEC Summit beginning today... Perhaps as soon as with Xi's visit in Dec Macau get have a fresh start without the FUD cast over China (and VIP play) as the crackdown on historical corruption wends it way to the logical end and the new office tamps out future abuses creating all of the FUD throughout China (and having nothing to do with Macau per se.]
"Fellow APEC member Australia is taking part in operations with China to seize illegal assets, while China has sent investigators to Thailand, the Philippines and other nations.
The call for more bilateral extradition treaties highlights the fact that China doesn’t have agreements with the countries it says are the top two destinations for economic fugitives -- the U.S. and Canada.
“Corruption not only creates an unfair playing field, it not only distorts economic relationships, but corruption steals from the people of every country the belief that the system works for everybody,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said at a briefing in Beijing after the deal was announced.
China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported last month that the country had captured 180 economic fugitives from 40 countries and recovered billions of dollars in assets."
As the APEC 2014 gets underway with Xi "leaders' meetings" with both Obama and Putin, opening tone is "upbeat and optimistic" according to early reports from CCTV and European news outlets. Recalling that supposedly some 75,000 Chinese politicians and their "friends" have now been "investigated" with only 690
being removed from their positions and some "180 economic fugitives" being hunted down and their absconded funds recovered. Looks like the U.S. is now going to buddy up with Xi's foxhunt running these guys down... no quarter for the bad guys it seems...
By Bloomberg News Nov 8, 2014 2:51 AM ET
US Secretary of State John Kerry speaks at a press conference on the sidelines of the... Read More
Asia-Pacific ministers pledged to deny safe haven to anyone engaged in corruption, bolstering Chinese efforts to chase down those who have fled the country with ill-gotten gains.
The ministers encouraged member countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum to sign bilateral extradition treaties and legal-assistance agreements, and speed up cooperation in prosecuting graft-related crimes.
“With fresh vigor and renewed momentum, we will take concrete actions and pursue additional effective measures as necessary to safeguard our common security,” the ministers said in an annex to the 103-point statement from a two-day meeting that ended today in Beijing. Leaders from the 21-member APEC grouping will meet Nov. 11.
The APEC pledge may give new impetus to a campaign China began in July, dubbed Operation Fox Hunt 2014, to round up economic fugitives and retrieve billions of dollars spirited overseas. That search dovetails with a broader campaign by the ruling Communist Party against corruption, which President Xi Jinping has become so bad that it threatens the party’s grip on power.
Fellow APEC member Australia is taking part in operations with China to seize illegal assets, while China has sent investigators to Thailand, the Philippines and...
beyond the "elephant ballerina" analogy below, Xi's anti-corruption campaign has now reviewed 75,000 politicians' bank accounts, assets, club affiliations and lifestyles -- and indicted only 690 "tigers and flies". Gee, maybe things are not quite so corrupt as many previously thought there?
Again, $18B of tax revenue from macau last year was a big number, and just now people are beginning to figure out the political chase of corrupt officials is about to start hurting their economy, jobs, tex revenue, and maybe even impairing future development surrounding Macau now that the land bank is already fully committed...
Good point Jim. The push for diversified offerings, i.e., that all new IR being developed on macau be more than monolithic casino structures, has been pressed since the first talk of the table limit guidelines (again, not table laws and not contract provisions up front) all sets itself up for murky winks as to how things get done in China's/Macau's central planning, moving toward wannabe capitalists with their shackles sort of way. We see that in the "promises" and "indications" of tables management teams articulate they will get when it is time to open the doors with their thousands of new jobs and billions of construction capex and gaming revenue that will follow, and we see that with the underpinnings of the "table guidlines" and concesionaire and subconcessionaire license renewals -- all held out as carrots for being model citizens in terms of developing properties that will appeal to more than just gaming patrons.
In that framework, it is comforting to note that LVS has made its mark on MCE facilities, WYNN is building the 8 acre lake everyone will enjoy while having an ice cream cone and smoke, and MPEL continues to develop truly spectacular, one of a kind showplaces (HDW, Studio City) which are IR with gaming AND extraordinary and compelling entertainment venues, and all of the IRs also comprise fabulous retail shopping venues in their early days.
Still, the inescapeable reality is that Macau's primary value to China, and the principal driver of economic growth/employment and tax revenue on Macau as the hub with all of the spoke infrastructure and another $100B+ of planned surrounding islands/mainland commercial development and supporting draw/value to the tourism aspects of itself and for Hong Kong, is Macau's gaming revenue/tax base. Clearly, no matter how much some of the political leadership would like to have a "broadly diversified" economy in Macau, today that would be like converting an elephant into a ballerina in a nice tutu.
Wow, articles with some balance about macau? There is hope that there are still some legit journalist grads out there...
One day soon, Beijing is going to smell the coffee and tell the new leadership in Macau that it is time to back off from standing on everyone's feet before the newborn calf is emaciated... the only way to get a fatted calf is to feed the beast! Goog this title for the article.
"Macau Treasury hit by gaming slowdown"
Of course, it’s affecting the operators. But decelerating gaming revenues are hitting the SAR Treasury in the pocket, too. Over the past 5 months MOP5.6 billion in taxes has slipped away vis-à-vis last year..."
Then there was this one, another smell the coffee moment for Beijing and the new leadership in Macau wherethe author calls the politically motivated corruption hunt a "gift to macau's competitors"
title: "Institutionalised anti-corruption policy prolonging VIP crisis in Macau"
Since being launched at the end of 2012, more than 75,000 party members have been investigated under Xi Jinping’s anti-graft policy, with 690 named publicly, ending the political careers of every official accused, even before any court trial, said the South China Morning Post this week. A later phase of the campaign focusing on signs of lavish spending and extravaganza displayed by Chinese officials and businessmen is a hunt that has directly affected VIP customers in Macau, especially this year. The highest profile probe to date is of Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee, and once overlord of policing and justice."
75k reviewed and less than 1% (690) called out, incl ~35 taking themselves out with tall building jumps? How many pols are there in China? How many more days to go now? Ongoing until Xi's visit? And the new office of corruption will be about all about FUTURE corruption, not "hunting" historical events and witches, and still 80% of VIP play goes on - and here comes Manila
Thank you John. The ongoing diverionary posts of these AOL girls is ridiculous as you know.
Those who have been around know matrix was on the stock pump team earlier this year, suggesting right her, with the stock in the low $40s, that the stock was going to $75, a day or so after I said to be careful now that all the paid bashers were hyping the stock on their multiple aliases. As you recall from back then, We sold out our then trading sleeve at $43 (owned below $34 where we reloaded on the pullback from $37) and explained why we hedged out half the core back to the 50d ema at $37.
When that drop happened, we pulled the hedge (conceptually reducing our basis (ignoring hedging gains along the way $17) on the total position $(17) on the core again.
matrix continues to write incredibly and intentionally errant nonsense that we own the stock above $2 and or at $36+ above $36, but our w ave basis on the trading sleeve is now below $28 (aghain, ignoring hedging gains (box shorting and paired trades on LVS/MGM shorts, much of which we shared right here along the way).
As you understand, this little circle of bashers has the agenda of trying to convince people to sell out the stock at these washed levels, which is mind numbing considering that (1) the daily tape is 5m shares, (2) retail holdings are only about 5% of the stock, (3) likely most readers here have these AOL pal girls on ignore as we do, or read them for laughs only, and (4) the corruption crackdown and table limits are the relevant issues and more than fully discounted in MPEL's case (trading at about half the slammed 2h run rate ebitda multiples of the group, when MPEL's execution/business plan focused on high end mass is the envy of other companies and being copied by several in Macau now.
Hilarious to think their boss thinks it is worthwhile for them to post nonsense about our sharing here as if our agenda is to influence retail holders. As I wrote, mind numbing...