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squeezetracker 783 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 8:39 AM Member since: Apr 5, 2011
  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 24, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    We have no position here and have not been following it closely... the PEET news is a major positive for GMCR in the sense that as eith SBUX a truly premium brand is in the fold; it is a negative in that despite protestations by mgmt, there is no way they are generating the same profitability per licensed SS pod as they would if they had been able to continue to control 100% of the market as they did until two years ago.

    Below you suggest the stock continued dropping on the shove to below $25 as coffee prices dropped-- but the stock was under shark attack then and may well come under siege again (doubt that severe again)... the reality is that coffee pricing is a HUGE factor in this company's cost of production/gross margin, and GM was sustained mightily last go round because of the price drop. This is a MAJOR benefit to GMCR right now, especially given they continue to lose proprietary share of the premium brand segment to players licensed and not.

    Fundamentals matter over the longer run, even though dislocations/misvaluations create opportunities in between times.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 24, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Those are also the comments of a moron.

    We own DNKN as well, but DNKN does not sell coffee -- their distributors do and then their franchisees generate sales from which profits are shared with DNKN.

    And no, they do NOT sell more coffee than SBUX, not even in the U.S. Nor do they sell more kcups than SBUX. SBUX sells more of those than any other brand except GMCR which sells all the SS dishwater and second tier "premium" brands to WMT customers.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 24, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    everything i wrote was "true" -- your comments are those of an idiot. what Shultz has said is disclosed -- they are hedged out to March of next year and between physical inventory and forward delivery under futures contracts, have no need to raise prices to hit guidance...

    As coffee prices ease, they will do better than guided.

  • Reply to

    SHORTS ARE HOSED -- GAP HIGHER 2 Jan 2014

    by squeezetracker Dec 31, 2013 2:36 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 23, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    I see where S for brains tubofshite wonders where I am. LOL

    As for our core at $38, blown out after the box hedge unwind for a $42/share gain, and we've done only two small subsequent trades for a $2 then 4/share (short then long) on the senator's noise week 1. For the morons worried about our positions here, a simpleton recap for them would be that we round tripped some 10 trading sleeves we shared right here -- every one of them, long or short as noted when done, profitable with some better than quick 20% turns and others only a buck or two but all fun. As said elsewhere, no position (trades) here since the week the senator announced his misguided noise.

    Last week we quipped that down another $20 or so and Ackman's ridiculous put trade involving 10m notional shares will be all the way back to breakeven on 40% of his original short. Down another % or so, he may get back to b/e on the other 15m shares! But will Carl, who by HLF policy can not hedge his shares directly, or Stiritz, who would need to disclose any equity short trades under 13d, let that happen before taking this private? We sincerely doubt it. Let's see: that $30 handle would mean Uncle Carl ceded some $850m had he sold out when we did? and it would mean that Stiritz is down some $00m or so from the recent high -- and some $285m from his basis... We don't think those guys are going to let bs noise ruin their allocations for much longer -- and when the FTC goes away and HLF is back in open field running or taken out by one of several alternatives.

    btw, LOL at the clueless moron with his series 7 suggesting bank financing is needed to take this private or be sold out to a retailer like Post (run by Stiritz).

    One thing we can say from years of watching the FTC, they are unlikely to have any adverse findings HLF can not respond well to from a doing business standpoint. Yet Stiritz may wind up with his plan to own it privately or via the Post venue after all is said and the baton twirling stops

  • Arabica prices are a key cost factor for this company, whether or not they spend the money to hedge a couple of quarters regularly. Over $300 in 2011, they dropped steadily to below $105 in November 2013 despite ramping world wide demand for premium beans. Since then, the price more than doubled to $220 until last week...

    Over the last week, as the rains fell hard in So America ending the drought there and signaling the end of the bean shortage as next year will now be a bumper crop, and as the speculative fervor over further run up got crushed, beans dropped 20% in three days.

    Further drops are coming for Arabica beans now. Yet it was surprising to see that the stock did not respond positively this relief and the index news this week. Perhaps everyone chasing this is done breathing hard...

  • Arabica prices have been a big factor for these shares. Over $300 in 2011, they dropped steadily to below $105 in November 2013 despite ramping world wide demand for premium beans. Since then, the price more than doubled to $220 until last week...

    Over the last week, as the rains fell hard in So America ending the drought there and signaling the end of the bean shortage as next year will now be a bumper crop, and as the speculative fervor over further run up got crushed, beans dropped 20% in three days.

    Further drops are coming, and this bs discount for SBUX shares will continue to be mollified near term.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 21, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    reset about done now... moron short posts today a sure sign of that LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 21, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Isn't this joyful? TRowe, Vanguard and Blair all added heavily last Q. But they won't hang around if another Q of drifting is enabled by this management team.

    Time for the good ol' boys running this company to step up with some form 4 buys in size, and to use that repurchase authorization, and to sell the company stores out to franchisees who are running SS comps 5x the level of the company owned stores run by marginal managers.

  • Reply to

    What happened to Squeeztracker?

    by redleaf9298 Mar 18, 2014 1:23 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    ok putzbreath... get back to your Woody Allen sock full of horse S now. ROFLOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    LOL

    Just think, down another $20/share and Ackman's put transaction covering 10m shares will be about breakeven!

    And Stiritz will be some $120m underwater with his position... unless they take it private and or otherwise F Ackman up... or, just maybe, the FTC concludes "We came, we saw, there is nothing wrong with this quality company." LOL

    We closed out the position collared out right at $80 (ignoring the final trading sleeve we made a quick $2/share on... but we will keep the file open on the story, and may even begin to nibble a bit when Stiritz and Uncle Carl get Loeb back on the enema team again. LOL

  • Reply to

    Lions and tigers and bears... oh my!

    by squeezetracker Mar 19, 2014 8:32 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    When the Chinese ministry begins implementing the "seize the moment roll out of pre-determined measures" discussed above, the gaming stocks will roar.

    Regarding buy points, some chartists would suggest focusing on the weekly chart right here... the shakeout handle is now extended, the 10w ema is being pressured, and the stock is down 10% from the pivot. Bill O'Neil would suggest that staying in a new buy at the recent pivot ($45.40 or so as the ideal buy point) requires serious conviction on this shakeout... we agree with that. LOL

    We also think that China is in a much stronger position than Chanos hopes (with his big real estate shorts on china), and that the gaming sector stocks are now seriously undervalued relative to what is coming, especially MPEL. Moreover, technical trading rules have lit up hold rules for anyone with a lower basis, especially given the coming news flow on Manila and Macau for MPEL.

    From a pure chart perspective, the safest resolve for new money is to wait for a retake of the 50d ema on heavy volume... that may be very a very fast 10% bump now that the unhedged shorts are piling on while the smarter money is adding all the shares they can find down here.

    As time and time again here, comforting to see the putz pm paying even more putzy morons to post blithering comments having no relevance to anything.. Scary, huh? LOL

  • Reply to

    Lions and tigers and bears... oh my!

    by squeezetracker Mar 19, 2014 8:32 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    GS cut their est of China GDP haircut from 7.6% to 7.3% -- don't they know the real numbers are likely closer to 4%? LOL

    Other interesting comments in Bloomberg piece this morning... Chanos may love headline junk, but the State council comments are the real news in our view... and no, Macau is just getting going hard these days.

    Bloomberg:
    "GS lowered its growth forecast for China to 7.3 percent from 7.6 percent after disappointing trade and consumption data, strategists... wrote in a note. Official data released in March showed the steepest slide in exports since the global financial crisis and the slowest growth in factory output for the January-to-February period since 2009, highlighting the challenges for Premier Li Keqiang in achieving his growth target of 7.5 percent for this year.

    Economic Measures

    China will “seize the moment to roll out already-determined measures in expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth,” the State Council said in a statement last night after a meeting. The nation will “accelerate preliminary work and construction on key investment projects with timely assignment of budgeted funds,” the cabinet said.

    Two Chinese developers received regulatory approval for new-stock sales, the first the government has allowed by real estate companies in about four years, after home sales fell and a developer collapsed.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    redleaf asking where i went? That putz has was short below $17 saying it was going below $10.

    He needs to get back to that crack pipe and his job at the car wash. ROFLOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 8:17 AM Flag

    LOL

  • Reply to

    What happened to Squeeztracker?

    by redleaf9298 Mar 18, 2014 1:23 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 8:06 AM Flag

    thanks for the comments guys... if you have seen redleaf's posts on this and every other board we scanned a few months ago, he is a gumptarded putz and manages to offend people on every board he frequents. LOL

  • Reply to

    What happened to Squeeztracker?

    by redleaf9298 Mar 18, 2014 1:23 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    We rarely use leverage lines and don't have a "margin" account. What a putz...

    We're long just below $17 now -- how is your short at $16 using your mama's Dell and her margin account dip S?

    KKD will soon be significantly higher... you'll still be chortling on your Woody Allen sock full of horse dung.

  • Good to see they have what management righteously called the "immaterial" restatement news done as of last night... a YAWN as we anticipated and said two weeks ago.

    To repeat our long theme here, the spinoff, buybacks and ebitda math are all coming through as anticipated since November and is supportive of these shares going significantly higher near term.

    We are long here with ave cost just above $22 core and collared at present levels. Glad the new execs are frustrated by the prevailing low valuations vs peers... maybe now they can start outperforming expectations again vs sharply lowering their guidance as they did (from $3 to $2 last year. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 20, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    We have been long since below $22 and added and collared shares around current levels.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Mar 19, 2014 8:32 PM Flag

    The three credit events so far (the CNB recapitalized "Credit is Gold #1" Trust, the solar company default that wasn't, and now the $400m real estate developer debt coupon pass) are hardly the stuff to mark China's "Lehman Moment." Yet the gaming stocks are acting like Chanos' "prophecy" is unfolding and China first and then the world economy collapse is upon all of us.

    We think the China's central planners have plenty of firepower to handle whatever is coming up for the next 377,777,777 similar events... there is no way the central planners are not going to use their HUGE current account surplus and other enormous firepower to continue combating any and all threats to their new regime's success taking China from the production economy to what they want: a new world order of quality employment, and robust prosperity and consumerism from and for their citizenry.

    Macau and gaming in the Asia Paciofic are just getting going friends... the fact that pant waste pm are willing to panic sell into these headlines is no more than advantage to those with the wits, wisdom and capital to tak advantage of fear , ignorance and stupidity.

    And no, the reality that the U.S. economy may soon be strong enough to withstand stepping down the QE and other monetary accommodation is not scary to those with some experience and savvy either...Imagine a world where the U.S economy is so solidly recovering that a real (i.E., inflation adjusted for the non-economists out there) interest rate above zero makes sense. LOL

  • Reply to

    Lions and tigers and bears... oh my!

    by squeezetracker Mar 19, 2014 8:25 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 19, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    and no, the reality that the U.S. economy may soon be strong enough to withstand stepping off the QE and other monetary accommodation is not scary to those with some experience and savvy either...

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