Isn't that great? Wait until next week now...
And where did redleaf9298 and all the short putzes go? LOL
What happened to redleaf 9298 calling me a "trapped long" and his equally moronic daily blithering on how this was going to new lows? LOL
Answer: He's still doing the same garbage on other stocks, but on this one? He's out in the barn, chortling on his Woody Allen socks stuffed full of horse dung. ROFLOL
Today's FT article quotes sources close to the pending spinoff suggesting they see the HERC standalone worth some $4.5B -- call it $10/share rounding down.
Given the capex relief to the remaining HTZ piece and applying CAR's eps multiple (without any additional buybacks) to the adjusted earnings stream, the HTZ piece will be worth close to $30 alone.
Additionally, the restatement will be to reduce prior period earnings, resulting in higher forward earnings as the deferred credit rolls into revenue.
Put all of that together, and it is apparent the drop to $26 on EU concerns is stupid... soo you all above $30 in a hurry.
reporting Tuesday, and if the FT article is correct, looks like they may have the spinoff news ready contemporaneously.
As we have said since last Fall, we think the stand alone/sale value is close to $10/share (number noted in FT article this weekend) and that the HTZ ex HECL, even before considering the huge relief on capex for the combined entity, is worth call it $30 using CAR's current valuation metrics... and HTZ arguable has more upside than CAR in Europe now.
KKD's fake short squeeze is over... today was more about real buying. KKD is en route to $25 near term.
Out of GMCR since $89. Shorted it back to cover at $59 before the Sep Q CC. Stock is still being chased -- another great short trade coming up.
MPEL -- great piece in IBD today. See my comments on the MPEL board.
HTZ reports Tuesday; should be fun... bought another big chunk today at $25.80.
We hedged out of our $38 core on HLF at $80, $3 from the top, and traded profitably in and out roughly 10x with sleeves up and down dsince $38, most of which we shared on that board as we did it. Ackman is serving up a big reversal chance to buy in cheap again -- we will wait to see how things go. No current position.
We have been out of PCLN since last week at $1325, bailing on the core we rebought at $950 (after selling out the $595 core at $945 6 months prior to the reset. Concern is that biggest growth drivers are Europe and China, both spooking the weak sauce pm this week. Hope they chase it back to $1100 or less to reload cheap.
Love EXPE -- Long since $48 as viewable on that board -- going to $100 this year.
See the IBD article from last night. their comments are dumbed down for the average reader, but they note various concepts we've been discussing here of late, incl the early stage/reset base count, shakeouts/50d ema tests (handle in process right now with 50d at $42.04), and the pivot (ideal buy point in Bill O'Neil's and technical analysis vernacular) at $45.60, for which they infer the shakeout handle is about done now. LOL
Again, weekly log charts show that the trend is well intact, and those paying attention know that the "undemanding" revenue and ebitda valuation on MPEL is more "undemanding" than any other in the group, even with essentially no cash flow generation included from COD Manila which is coming online this year or Studio City scheduled to come on next year. Citi now has some rev/ebitda in for 2015, but they and all others are too light as has been the case for the last three years on MPEL.
"Five Leading International Stocks Below Buy Points
By ALAN R. ELLIOTT, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 03/13/2014 06:11 PM ET
Top international stocks have reacted largely alongside the general market this week, rallying to end the day at or near highs Wednesday, and surrendering early gains to end low in ranges on Thursday.
Of IBD's 10 Top World Stocks, five are extended beyond buy points.
As for the others, Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) is six days into a handle, tacked on to a seven-week cup and with a buy point at 45.80. The handle has corrected 10%, well within the rules, and volume has been quiet — exactly what you'd hope to see. Shares edged below their 50-day moving average Thursday, and you'd like to see the stock hold this level of support. The base is a third-stage structure....."
This time is the tape seems to rep a few nub pm are boxing positions on all the gaming companies... gladly added a nice chunk at $41.10 this afternoon. Now out for a round of golf.
Great Q and CC tonight mgmt -- you killed it on all points except the buyback... should have exhausted that below $17, buying when we were shouting about our steady buying buys here.
That said, good to see almost $10 taken out since EOY and re-upped to $80m now... the chance to buy this below $21 is done now.
Well thank you.
Long here below $17 as you know. Long DNKN from $30, GMCR from $18, SBUX from $62 in this sector have all been pretty good.
Check out our notes on MPEL from $12 in Nov 2012... PT is $50, but going to $60 as long as no China or broad market collapse. BIG news is manila, where they are opening a 4 hotel property in Manila Bay with no real competition.
HTZ is the next BIG runup in our portfolio. On a big core at $22 from late last year and adding up through $27. PT is $35 this year.
EXPE and PCLN let's say "working" (LOL), tons made on the airlines, AAPL long since $389, HLF from $38 to $80 and about to add again tomorrow courtesy Ackman's ongoing dufus antics. LOL
Hey, we're actually good at this mm game... but sometimes we bail too early. On CMG at $75 -- out WTF early at $340. LOL
You can see more for the clicking... but that's plenty to be "delighted." ROFLOL
You have no idea...
"Delightful" all about twerking the heads of you putz shorts sukin on your Woody Allen socks full of horse dung. LOL
Enjoy the run to $25. ROFLOL
With WYNN, you get Steve and quality team. When the new property comes on line in early 2016 (two years from now) you also get what will be the second best property in Cotai -- right behind MPEL's City of Dreams which is already 5 star, is inimitably positioned on the strip, and will be THE iconic property in Macau once Tower 5 is completed.
MGM is the weak sister of the group, the short side of paired trades all year long. Saddled with too much debt, nine tired Vegas properties (Bellagio and Citi not tired but not big ebitda machines the others have in Macau, and only decent management when MPEL and WYNN and even LVS have better mgmt, MGM will remain the caboose. MGM is also consistently the cellar player in Macau... Asians aren't much for the gaudy gold trims MGM's design team uses there. LOL
Hard to leave the entire position on when we own it at $16.80 and have a nice, very easy gain, but anyone stupid enough to short this below $19 deserves what is coming -- a solid trampling!
trowe notes tell you what is coming... A solid beat... And so did the ceo last month. lol