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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 523 posts  |  Last Activity: 45 minutes ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • PT $100 now...

    The margin progress ahead of the company's framing is great as the price increases did not begin until after half through the June Q.

    That means their sales dollars will be up hard 3Q, at the same time that coffee futures are down hard (240 to 160) from the recent cascading top Howard said was sure to follow as the rains came to South America.

    Then we have the tailwinds of reduced share counts from the ongoing buyback, Teavana revs just getting going, new menu enhancements, last year's 700+ stores coming up the growth curve and the rollout of another 700 new stores this year.

    time to reload here...

  • Reply to

    Just getting going again -- EXPE and PCLN too

    by squeezetracker May 23, 2014 11:09 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 23 hours ago Flag

    That was a pleasant TRIP from $82 to $103, but it is a real joy to see the stock get blasted on them investing in the future.

    Take the stock down another $5-6 tomorrow and we'll get back to long a bunch here. Meantime, this dopey selloff should give us the chance the chance to add cheap to PCLN tomorrow now that we are reloaded at $1202. Great fun... just like the airlines on the RIP tio new highs that started today.

    So wait, if the car rental companies, airlines and hotels are running hot, d'ya think the OTAs just might have a bright outcome for the year? LOL

  • Reply to

    is it safe yet?

    by drjackcar Jul 22, 2014 11:09 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 23, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    foggy,
    Companies will have smoking as needed on the private floors (so all the VIP and premium mass players will be able to chain smoke. There will be zero impact on these players...

    As you said I said, most Chinese players smoke heavily ("always")... but if the mass players want to chain smoke (vs stepping 15 paces to the nearest smoking room for their nicotine fix between hands or slot pulls LOL), then they won't be going to macau for entertainment. You get to the same conclusion we have.

    Recap:
    VIP and premium mass players will be able to choose between smoking and non-smoking areas.

    Mass players in public areas will have clean air to breathe at the tables/slots/machines whether they like it or not.

    Mass players in public areas who want to smoke will need to take a few steps to a disignated smoking room light up.

    Impact on gaming revenue? Yawn...

  • Reply to

    is it safe yet?

    by drjackcar Jul 22, 2014 11:09 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 22, 2014 9:36 PM Flag

    If you have ever been to macau or anywhere in Asia for that matter, it seems as if everyone smokes heavily; the reality is that many people will enjoy not being around smoke. As it is playing out, the "smoking ban" in Macau is much ado about nothing -- much the same as UnionPay swipes in casinos, essentially null set Visa limitations, labor costs rising, tour operator swindling, ultra cheap shopping tours, HK/mainlander friction, unenforced table caps, concessionaire renewals, alternate venue competition, etc.

    As "enacted", private floors with separate air handling will be made available for VIP/pemium mass patrons who want to smoke while they play. On the mass (genl public) floors, smoking rooms will be provided for patrons choosing to smoke before getting back to the next game. Impact on GR? yawn...

    As for reported VIP GR "bouncing", that may help with headlines and positive influence retail and others' sentiment toward the setor, but it will not mean much to MPEL's adj ebitda, any more than the likely one-off q of slight reduction in VIP GR level for macau in total will hurt MPEL's adj. ebitda. All of this noise has done little more than create price dislocation -- the opportunity to lay in shares while they are on sale at uneconomically low price.

  • Reply to

    is it safe yet?

    by drjackcar Jul 22, 2014 11:09 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 22, 2014 9:07 PM Flag

    doc,
    in the end analysis, all 13 or so of the mostly bs noise elements will have no lasting impact on real growth stories.

    But going back to March, several very real FUD factors impacting the broader market and high beta stocks, esp those with relative outperformance t15m or so, were hit hard, many back to not only the 50d ema as noted here, but also back to the 200d ema or less. Without trying to be exhaustive, the legit discounting issues were the fear and uncertainty associated with China's economic slowdown, financial systems and overheated realty markets, along with geopolitical concerns.

    China's very real "crackdown on corruption" and fraud, mostly in non-gaming related aspects of the Chinese economy (e.g., bribes taken by politicians), COMBINED with all of the bs noise on smoking, UnionPay, Visas, local politics/labor, all made it easy for some to conclude VIP and GGR would get hurt for an extended period & led to what is now seen to be a 2Q and perhaps longer slowdown in VIP GR as many players ducked scrutiny while the trees were being shaken.

    Certainly some slowdown in VIP has happened, esp the lower tier operators, but reality also includes some of the conversion to direct credit play (premium mass), particularly at MPEL and LVS of relevance to the names kicked around here more than once. Having been discussed on this board (and in pm cicles) for some time now, some here think these effects are well understood, but they are not (yet) , nor are they well discounted (yet). In fact, when all the data is in, the drop in MPE + LVS total VIP alone may account for Macau's VIP $ drop 2Q yoy. So VIP is not the cause, it is the effect. These items are now on fade and all the real and bs noise (headline) algo shorting.

    Beyond the superficial parroting, none of that is understood/discounted, nor is the 80% of MPEL's rev pie growing at 35%+ for the 2Q. As pm pull box shorts, better days are ahead for longs. See CMG HLF and ISRG for similar playouts.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 22, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    and so now we see overall Macau's VIP was down less than disastrously, and represented 60% of Macau GGR vs closer to 2/3s last year...

    Think that through on MPEL -- last year VIP was still about half of MPEL's rev, and this years it is running less than 25%, likely less than 20% for the june Q, and cruising to less than that for MPEL on Macau (esp COD cotai) for the year. One more data point needed: for the June Q, mass/direct credit premium mass was up some 35%+ yoy.

    Oh wait, we've done this math before...

    and the "analyst" group has consensus revenues flat yoy? LOL

  • Reply to

    Morgan gets it wrong again

    by drjackcar Jul 21, 2014 10:15 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 22, 2014 7:58 AM Flag

    foggy,

    The theme of my comments is that the group analysts and lately the s head media have, over the long run, been late at calling turns up and down and really good at "wrong way" calls on the sector.

    The reckoning is coming... if not within days (as when the stock bounced from $32 to $37 recently), then over the next few months at the outside.

    Looking forward to Ho's update on the Manila opening... it will be more important than the zero revenues discounted by the street for 4Q14. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 22, 2014 7:32 AM Flag

    Re LVS, incorrect, again... We did two small trades with peanut gains, and had no position into the call. We have added to MPEL below $33 in recent days.

    You also seem to not understand the key point. Yes the group is under a cloud, yes VIP has been compressed... and NO, MPEL should not be getting hurt on the drags suffered by LVS last Q and continuing into this Q, nor does MPEL have the issues with VIP that WYNN and MGM are likely to have, even though, as said above, both of those companies should be able to pick up the slack LVS and MPEL are leaving in the line on VIP as the latter two focus on mass. The annual growth rate for mass has compounded better than 30% since 1998, and during the mixed signal June Q, Macau mass (incl premium mass) has grown over 35%...Additionally, MPEL is doing mass and premium mass better than any other competitor relative to footprint (yes LVS mass $ have outpaced MPEL, but LVS has also more than doubled footprint t24m).

    What I wrote about hedges above is a truism; anymore than do pissant trading sleeves of morons such as rajatratman, it doesn'tmatter to us whether you understand it or not. Unlike the trading club tarts and pissant sleeve daytraders running headline based algo shorts here, we are not playing for the next couple of hours or days.

    Here's what you can see if we have largely correct though: assuming a flattish broad market, out PT is $50 by the time Dec Q earnings are out a couple of days. LOL

  • CMG has had the analyst group wetting itself over cost pressures (food price inflation on everything they sell) and pass through+ price increases to consumers that many thought would hurt SS sales... but CMG just reported SS sales up 17% yoy... that is one dazzling comp, and the stock is up 9% as i write to show for it as the unhedged shorts get decapitated and the box hedges will all come off in unison over the next couple of days.

    The point of relevance to the Macau gaming stocks is that the day of reckoning is coming as hedged pm will, in our view, soon be ready to pull the box hedges and or exercise their calls and watch the puts (short puts) expire worthless. Interesting to see the group get dragged down with the market today and not follow through on the bullish HK tape (MPEL not the same as the LVS, WYNN and MGM HK tapes as discussed prior) like the gaming companies did there despite the shanghai softness, but more interesting to see WYNN rally today as WYNN is arguably the most Macau VIP dependent of the four U.S. listed companies.

    On the fundamental/business plan picture Ho is pursuing better than any other company (top drawer mass and best in group premium mass/direct credit franchise development), we think MPEL is going to report substantially stronger overall results than LVS just put up; relative stock outperformance should follow.

    And if VIP is up for the Q yoy, if not overall for macau than at least the far easily hurdle of at the companies still heavily reliant on VIP in macau (so MGM and WYNN), maybe that alone will get the group moving again... The analysts and "re-ratings" down were after the fact as they will be when the stocks move up and the "re-rating" bs back to positive framing will follow that. It doesn't matter that more of the penguins and parrots are now figuring it out... but it shouldn;t come as a surprise when the box shorts come off in a whoosh, and then more players try to own a chunk of the best growth story in the group.

  • Reply to

    Morgan gets it wrong again

    by drjackcar Jul 21, 2014 10:15 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 21, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    reply part 3

    and this part was the cake taker... withg Shuli feeling like she's so knowledgeable about the sector she's ready to teach now -- LOL

    "How would an upturn in VIP revenue growth help the Macau market? VIP gaming growth is strongly correlated with P/E multiples. As the VIP segment recovers, we should expect re-rating in the Macau stocks."

    An upturn in VIP revenue would increase revenue and ebitda and adj ebitda and eps (LOL)... that is how it would help the stocks of companies whose revenue streams remain largely dependent on VIP play.

    If one has some basic quant knowledge and history on the sector, p/e ratios are not much correlated with p/e ratios. Back with LVS trading at $38 and call it a market multiple of trailing and forward eps, [Macau] VIP was "growing" at numbers like 50% YOY. Now, we could easily see WYNN report a 10% increase in VIP yoy, even though VIP was down for macau for the Q. Shuli, and MS and all other glittering genralities for that matter, have an outstanding chance of being less relevant and useful than wet tissue.

    As for her "coinage" on "re-rating the macau stocks", that was stupid when CS used it 6 months ago... the sector has been beat down by weak hands selling, unhedged shorts trading algo to slam the tape, and, argunably the most significant sales hitting the tape, pom boxing out long positions and then crossing over directly vs longs to cover... and then reloading longs on days like today when the stock is trading stupid cheap and in size as nub pm think the sector is a good short based on dip S analyst notes (WFC, MS for example) and media bs from the likes of Shuli and IBD.

  • Reply to

    Morgan gets it wrong again

    by drjackcar Jul 21, 2014 10:15 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 21, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Re the stocks rallying 20% part, I meant to add that they rose without the analysts raising their just lowered estimate and opinions... after the stocks were up hard and record GGR and ebitda and adj ebitda kept on rolling in, THEN they raised their opinions basck to BUY and their PT by another 20%, only to see the stocks double F12M. It was all way too stupid to watch without making fun of the dopy analysts back then... and, in lvs' case, the stock was running hard despite the stupidity of shel's ego chasing the Spanish Empire Building we and everyone else managing money thought was ridiculous right up until they killed the idea ib late 2013 (with the stock at around $72 where we reloaded (having bailed at $72 on the way up.

    You just can;t make this stuff up guys... the anaylsts as a group are wrong when it matters in this sector... and we think they will be again here.

    p.s. fun to see WYNN rally on the lack of a labor protest outside their front door (LVS Venetian not) and perhaps the idea that the two analysts in Shuli's noise think is good news on VIP returning from the moth closet... Steve is going to be chasing Ho's progress on premium mass in the months to come, not everyone back to chasing VIP. Whacky whacky whacky analyst "insights" with darling Shuli's add on about p/e ratios following VIP GGR data. LOL

  • Reply to

    Morgan gets it wrong again

    by drjackcar Jul 21, 2014 10:15 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 21, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    More stupidity from weak analysts and media outlets? Just to show how stupid MS and Shuli's comments are though, I'll dissect a couple of them.

    "Morgan Stanley gave a historical example: After Macau’s VIP revenue fell 8% year-on-year in July 2012, stock prices fell by 10% on average. But as the revenue decline narrowed to 1% in the following August, the stocks rallied by more than 20% over the next three months."

    Look at the chart back in 2012. EVERY analyst (no knowledge of Bain back then) had lowered their rev/eps est for ALL of the companies. MPEL dropped from 16 (April) to $9 on analyst bs and later, fear of a secondary for manila, and then began the 18 month run to $45; only after analysts had all gotten VERY negative on the group. Longtimers in the niche will recall we were very bullish on all that bs sentiment and that we pulled the box hedge on LVS at $38 ($2 above the late July low), calling it a GREAT opportunity. When MPEL got the manila financing done (no secondary) and the group reported improving outlooks after the Sep Q, ALL of the stocks were off to the RIP again. The buyside trades against sellsider/media bs. Time to BUY is now!

    "[MS] has turned more negative towards Macau/LVS, which has higher exposure to the faster-growing mass market, citing “falling mass table yield growth and limited further movements of VIP tables to mass tables. Sands China’s 2Q14 results also suggest diminishing operating leverage, owing to rising labor costs and higher investment in premium mass.”

    LVS yield is lower now because they have real mass players coming in to Cotai and way more tables having pulled them from VIP. Ho coined the "agnostic" table concept, but premium mass and mass are to stay and growing WAY faster than flattish VIP. The answers to the stated "issue" is machine play, higher table limits, weekday play, MCE business, etc. For MPEL? BEST IN CLASS premium mass franchise, table yields, adj ebitda (oper leverage) and new casinos coming f18m.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 18, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    love the stock is like a baby tiger simile... lots of fun to play with until one day, when the tiger is ready and rears unexpectedly, that baby's big paws and a good swipe takes a man's head off with one good swipe.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 18, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    The stock was up cal it 60 cents+ or some 2% before najarian's comments... and yes it spiked (as no float, touchy shares will tend to do) before easing off the spike back to pre najarian comment levels (now drifting higher as more shorts figure out they are dead down here. Notice the slew of new and old alias dufuses are all chortling on their Woody Allen socks full of horse manure today vs trying to dis anyone with quality posts shared here? Funny as hell...

    Najarian has said he is long the stock since it last pulled back to the 50d ema... on fundamentals, quant and the chart, that should have been a good entrance level, just ask all the 13F filers adding shares 1Q between $37 and $45. Today he said he bought some weeklies, chasing those with others buying them in size. Who is buying them in size? The morons who were unhedged shorting yesterday we suspect... LOL Now the game is on for those option monkeys... when they expire, the box hedges are still out there to fry the unhedged shorts. Who is selling them those ultra short-dated otm calls? LOL

    The following week will be more interesting as it runs up into MPEL's release which should be excellent given the data sets LVS has shared where non-VIP play Macau saved the Q for them... All of the hedge shorts and option offsets will be gone then...

    Still, your comment re the beta is good quant point... this trades enough for sleeve guys to f around with it like a baby tiger, especially given mgmt has recently said they won't be buying in stock just yet, followed by announcements that they have a second phase planned for MSC, a $300m increase in the COD budget contemporaneously with signing up Hyatt for the third hotel there, and likely tower 5 will also run the budget bumps seen at MSC, Manila and so on... all good stuff, but precluding a buyback anytime soon. glad they are focused on ROIC hurdles (see 10k) and that it is best in group and going to get better on operating leverage.

  • Reply to

    Great day for the shorting algos!

    by squeezetracker Jul 17, 2014 4:27 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 18, 2014 8:16 AM Flag

    foggy,
    not sure any shorts got hurt yesterday... between the employment/housing news, Obama's flimsy saber rattling on sanctions for Russia, the MH flight and the tanks/bombing runs in Gaza, the market had plenty of reasons to quiver, and LVS' overline holds and soft Singapore and U.S. results also mollified the generally solid news out of Macau on mass for them.

    btw, in addition to the likely buyback bid on LVS yesterday (if they loved it at $82 w ave last Q and $76 w ave cost of buybacks during the June Q and believe their own comments about 2H14, Shel and team ought to REALLY love the stock at $72!), there was likely some serious buying going on to remove box shorts (hedges protecting against a horrid Q that did not materialize for LVS or macau and now look to be all rear view items established against bigger long positions). Additionally, those short LVS on paired trades (i.e., where LVS was the short side) really need to cover in as quietly as possible now. The sky is not falling on china, the realty bond default there, and certainly not on Macau. Some analysts and others have suggested that lots of mass play and VIP was spooked away last Q by all the noise and tianamen sq and other one-offs, and that is likely the case but the Cotai properties are all running fuller than ever anyway.

    The concentrated ownership/constrained float on MPEL (Ho and Packer control 67%) has previously created chop for MPEL in down markets and certainly has since 2011. The big reason for that is pm desirous of hedging their positions (and big gains since 2012 especially) in chop times. Although we are 100% long MPEL, a few pals long here since 2012 have put on box shorts of late as discussed several times here -- renewed following the June 'mystery." As noted prior, box hedges are beautiful on high beta/ low when reversal rockets are lit, since any shares hitting the tape (vs simply journaled to cover) add rocket fuel to the RIP higher as the unhedged shorts get quashed.

  • Reply to

    Great day for the shorting algos!

    by squeezetracker Jul 17, 2014 4:27 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 17, 2014 7:34 PM Flag

    good to see the smartest of the daytraders cover in late in the day... the latest in a line of violent reversals coming up as they all need to cover once the FUD ends on MPEL.

    And on LVS, that was one impressive display of what an ambitious buyback program can do to ameliorate a rough report into the teeth of a all four reasons that stock should have been beat down today... when instead it outperformed the group and much of the market.

  • Reply to

    LVS disappoints but MPEL is paying the price

    by bretbeck Jul 17, 2014 12:37 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 17, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    LOL... when you look at a map, do you think East is on the right and West is on the left? South is down; North is up? You comments on LVS results in Macau are upside down too.

    LVS numbers in Macau were LVS' best, by far!

    Singapore continues to struggle on a normalized hold level, and even with the fat holds. Bob calls it "cHALLENGING" AND KIND OF A MYSTERY TO THEM.

    The U.S. properties numbers were awful hold adjusted -- worse than flat!

    Now that the facts are set forth in the prior three sentences, go read your posts again. Really hilarious, huh!

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Jul 17, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    I'm not talking about running HFT shorting on MPEL, one would have to be a moron to be shorting MPEL down here... I am talking about the broad market, especially anything with international exposure as today had lots of tags those pernicious, or, more objectively, those little opportunistic dark pools and HFT programs would jump all over like a cheap suit... You know, words like: "weak employment report, soft housing data, passenger plane shot down by Russia, was the missile attack intentional or an act of terrorism, another terrorist attack, Israel defending itself by waging war on Palestine, Israel launches rockets and rolls tanks into Gaza strip, war breaks out in the middle east, and so on...

    But let's recap why the market got slammed so broadly:

    First we had the weak sauce US employment and housing data (though permits were better than shitey).

    Then we had the plane shot down by a Russian missile, with FUD creating FUBAR BUNDY, SNAFU and TARFU for the market...

    Followed by Israel rolling tanks into Gaza and launching rockets into known Hamas rocket launch sites and weapons depots (you know, in schools, mosques and residential housing areas).

    Yeah... drjack and others are correct, MPEL was unduly slammed yet again today. We sold out PCLN and GS this morning to make room for more MPEL... missed $31.80, but there scooping on the turnaround at $31.90 and happy to add more if hedge and other shorting continues. MPEL certainly has been unduly punished since dropping below $35 and share buybacks are screamingly indicated down here, but we think the 2H14 will prove rewarding... F the shorts here... this is set up for a good mashing again (about like $22 last July).

  • Reply to

    LVS Implications for MPEL: All good news

    by squeezetracker Jul 17, 2014 6:06 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 17, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    bob's take on the importance of VIP was much more reality driven than shel's,esp as regards MBS.

    As for the crossover effects, Ho has been clear that they are all about developing the driect credit (premium mass) franchise with wealthy patrons, and he has said several times that former VIP patrons are a great source for this process.

    I haven;t studied bob comments on the premium mass and VIP interchange, but he was less in denial about the effects than old shel wants to acknowledge (perhaps he just does not know). If you have followed Shel's story for a decade or so, he is not receptive to anyone offering ideas contrary to his own, not even his c suite guys say much so hat is off to Bob on last night's call (he went out of his way to tip his hat to the junket operators at MBS where VIP is STILL what half of adj ebitda vs less than 17% in Macau now.

    And consider that as "premium mass" picks up in LVS properties, their holds have eroded serially... why? because some of those guys actually understand the table. I think grftt's comments on a few threads re machines and MPEL using them advantageously is going to matter... that is the place for lower tier mass players over time in the premium venues.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jul 17, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    What a F moron... every time you post here it is incredibly stupid commentary, and while i didn;t go back to check, it is likely you that has commented on Russia and HK trading as if it is significant to MPEL many times. Surprised i didn't already have you on ignore for your demonstrated stupidity and 4th grade antics.

    Ho and Packer are the founders of MPEL. Melco Int'l Development Corp (Ho's investment vehicle) and Crown Resorts (Packer's company) have both owned 33+ percent interests in MPEL since inception as discussed here in different contexts many times.

    Now go read below to learn something meaningful about the small casino development effort in Russia , but tax your mind to see if you can remember that MPEL is not involved from a capital standpoint, anymore than are any of MPEL's other registered owners (Wellington, Pimco or any other 13F filer). LOL

GMCR
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