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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 271 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 45 minutes ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker 2 hours 45 minutes ago Flag

    Chanos is a cpa and smart guy, and he's made several great calls on his short orientation HF... enron the big one in my recall... but he has been calling China a bubble and ready to collapse for years now, saying the housing and shadow banking mires would swamp China's economy and take the world with it since before COD opened! today he tells Detar at IBD, "corruption, credit crunch, all we have been saying", as if he called the real crunch seen since Xi's corruption campaign started causing guys to jump off of tall building last summer... and lots of folks to lay low... in their foxholes Steve said a few days ago -- a fun term we have been using here for a month or so. LOL

    glad to see Chanos out there talking to the weak-minded droids who will publish his "hot air" thesis... a sure sign his shorts are crunching his positions and he's getting a tad pinched. Hey Shuli, you let Detar get out there first with this "real time, market making news." ROTFL

    anyway, it is all good fun and, based on the Abe news today (nice) and surprisingly decent ebitda generation out of even MGM in the "troubled" quarter in what Nomura's analyst framed as the "dangerous VIP" decline as if it was the end of the business in macau (LOL), it is increasingly looking like $24 was the bottom for now... we'll leave the short puts out there until they expire next month. We even added a few shares again when they drooped below $27... soon that "little" trade sleeve of ours will be in the money again.

    OT
    fwiw, we also put on a small (5k) WYNN trade this morning. The quant premise is simple -- Macau is not dead whether Chanos and his media and sell side analyst pigeons like it or not, and WYNN is the second best positioned and second cheapest in the group, so it should be outperforming LVS and MGM. That said, all four stocks are still on sale and WYNN will soon be back above $200 (speculating) and the special and regular dividends totaling $2.50 go ex next Thursday.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker 5 hours ago Flag

    LOL

  • Reply to

    Even MGM did ok in Macau 3Q

    by squeezetracker Oct 30, 2014 12:19 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 5 hours ago Flag

    Some MPEL longs might enjoy reading through the MGM transcript. Seems they finally have a legit construction process underway for MGM Cotai and even have three floors above ground now. They pushed back their "tentative" opening date from mid 2016 to "Fall 2016" but at least they are building and apparently done saying that they (and everyone else) are stalled and uncertain about when construction will get going there; since the last Q call, someone must have told Murren not to say everyone is stalled/uncertain about completion targets since Galaxy, MPEL Studio City and Wynn Palace are capping/installing interiors now.

    They were unconcerned about mass or premium mass play slowing or margins fading andalso had this to say about VIP:
    Nomura analyst (bozo with the Visitation spend chart Shuli loves to quote)
    "And then, Grant, as it pertains to VIP, it's kind of a dangerous question [ yeah, okay "dangerous" -- what a putz]. Is your sense that there's any stability in this, in your customer base yet?

    Grant R. Bowie - President
    Well, it's transitioning. I don't think it's an issue of customer bias, I just think we're going through a realignment more than anything else. And that's been going on for some time and it's being well discussed and well reported. The operators are still seeing customer flows. Yes, it's down on previous experience, but they're starting to reconsolidate in there. The feedback we're getting at this time, it can be a little more positive as they readjust to the new conditions."

    As I wrote last week, one day soon even these dopey sellside analysts are going to figure out that still 80% or so of the run rate VIP is still happening in Macau... and even MGM's China ebitda was up 12% YOY for the Q.

    Next, MGM execs said they aren't doing any pricing promos and other than saying the new "smoking ban" rules are confusing, yawned about that too.

  • Abe unexpected round of QE had jolted the Asian markets overnight Russia signing up to source heating fuel for Europe with a concession on the $5B due bill from last year has pumped the European markets... Germany is up ~1.7% this morning.

    Gee... who'da thunk maybe the sky is not going to fall on China or Macau?

  • Reply to

    Macau Visitation Report

    by squeezetracker Oct 27, 2014 9:35 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 20 hours ago Flag

    yoondr and anyone else trying to understand the difference between VIP gaming and mass/premium mass, as well as why most buyside teams ignore the sellside in this industry, ought to read this thread top to bottom.

    funny as hell to think dipchitt's rate some of the comments negatively... they wet themselves too. LOL

    But the Nomura analyst team should be fired for trying to issue an "earthshaking" revelatory piece with their lame graph Barron's weak sauce blogger wrote about like it mattered, when the reality is that their work is ridiculous -- superficial and wrong. The research director needs to be replaced for letting them publish such goofy work too... and for getting morons such as Shuli Renn and Detar to republish the inanity.

    Too stupid to laugh about really... good thing no one managing money looks to these idiots for input.

    Meanwhile, LVS, WYNN and now even MGM's results have shown that even with VIP down hard they can still make progress on adj ebitda, even if holds go from fat to thin in YOY comps. MPEL, the least reliant on VIP junkets of them all, results next week will give all of these media and analyst naysayers on the MPEL story something to chortle on for years to come... and here comes Manila and in about 8-9 months, phase 1 of Studio City (contemporaneously with Galaxy's new property to help build excitement and another reason to go to Macau again -- almost a year ahead of Wynn's Palace and MGM Cotai.

  • Reply to

    Even MGM did ok in Macau 3Q

    by squeezetracker Oct 30, 2014 12:19 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker 21 hours ago Flag

    yoondr,

    MPEL is likely to report the best results of all four companies next week...

    About your "confused as heck," seriously now... from the comments of many here, it seems few actually understand the business in even rudimentary terms. Congrats to you for wanted to learn more about what you own.

    In as helpful a spirit as I can muster (and gleeful about what the other companies results imply for MPEL's positioning and our returns on the airlines and OTAs in recent weeks as ebola concerns fade to black) all things considered, you should read through MPEL or LVS' 10 and June 10Q filings to learn more about industry terms and the difference in VIP (table roll) gaming revenue, net and mass/premium mass gaming revenue. Pay particular attention to the margin differentials in these very different quantitative differentials and the impact on adj earnings, adj ebitda generation. Building on that knowledge base, then go study the mix between mass/VIP for each of the four gaming companies listed in the United States... then your confusion will be resolved, and you'll understand why the couple of quality analysts and knowledgeable posters here believe MPEL is the best-situated company in Macau given what is happening there with perhaps temporary and perhaps more lasting VIP tour curtailment as well as the reality that Tower 5 will quickly become the "premium mass" place of choice (WYNN's new Palace should also fare well), what Ho meant by "repsoitioning" altira for the high end tour operators,

    otp, you'll be in a far better position to understand all of the quality posts shared here by the few willing and capable of doing that amongst all the useless drivel and "little girl" bs .

  • TRIP and PCLN will also have fabulous results to share next Tuesday...

    We own all three -- they should have little trouble running up 15% or so into EOY as the hedges all come off starting tomorrow.

    Meanwhile, you have to laugh at the pizzant hedge fund trying to head fake short and PCLN down tonight... same as the idiot shorts do on these stocks every Q it seems. Big moves up tomorrow -- shorts are roadkill as my partner loves to quip on stories like this.

  • EXPE absolutely crushed the Q beating on revs, adj eps and ebitda; 4Q will be even better on that note.

    As typical, PCLN's performance will be even better than EXPEs as their new hotel initiatives are taking share. PCLN, TRIP and EXPE are all screaming buys down here while the hotels are running full and with stunningly strong ADRs. We own all three...

    PCLN should have an easy run back above $1300 from here into EOY.

    Shorts, as my partner loves to quip, are roadkill... feed the crows.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Oct 30, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Despite their heavy VIP orientation (vis a vis LVS and MPEL that is), they still put up decent ebitda progress.

    Considering that WYNN and MGM have heavier VIP mix than MPEL and LVS, and they along with WYNN didn't have the big fat holds this Q, it likely won;t be long before the buyside pulls remianing hedges and even the lame sellside analysts figure out that macau is a profitable venture despite a 20% clip on VIP vs last year.

    If you missed it, have a read through the article this morning saying "experts" are concerned Xi's visit scheduled for December may crimp play by leaving elite wealth players in their foxholes. Other experts think Xi is coming for the 150th turnover anniversary, but also to talk about how great macau is for China's new world order on converting from a production economy to move of a consumer/services based economy. He'll also likely emphasize how wonderful it is to see all of the infrastructure and surrounding development taking off now, and applaud the IR developers who have taken the "destination resort" to heart in their offerings as an intergral part of making Macau a truly great vacation destination for those looking for a proud chinese locale to go to -- one with exciting cultural, resort, dining and entertainment options, and also the pride of the world place to recreate by gaming responsibly.

    Hey Xi, no credit needed for your use of this outline for your remarks at the microphone... just make sure there are lots of the dipchit media writers there -- you know, the ones who have been wetting themselves all year.

    On that note, China is apparently moving to permit Visa and Mastercard to do business in China... if that progress as is being discussed, it will mark the final slam on all of the monkeys wetting themselves over "unauthorized" UnionPay swipes in the parking lots.

  • Reply to

    Fastest growing Gaming Market......

    by grftt Oct 29, 2014 11:03 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 30, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    grftt,
    agree with Jim...

    Great comments on COD manila...

    And really confirming comments from the JPM analyst team wrt Macau VIP:

    "Triggered by four consecutive months of decline in gaming revenue since June, prices of casino gaming stocks in Hong Kong have dropped by 37 percent on average from their respective year-to-date peaks, according to the brokerage.

    The downturn however “is not structural”, said J.P. Morgan.

    It added: “Taking a step back, we note consensus earnings estimates for six operators came down by US$1.2 billion from the peak (down 11 percent), during which time the sector lost US$70 billion in market cap (down 37 percent). In other words, we believe it was more the uncertainty and fears on the outlook, rather than the magnitude of slowdown itself, which caused a correction.”

    The brokerage sees a recovery in Macau’s gaming industry starting in the second quarter of 2015. “Macau … will likely enjoy the best ‘profitable’ growth from secularly rising Chinese mass, and we forecast the combined EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation] of [the] six operators to double by 2018"

    This is the most legit recap of what happened to Macau VIP and why -- and where things are going -- than we have seen since May from any sell side firm other than Bain. As conviction/visibility improves, long before the ebitda double is historical, the stocks will begin forward discounting of that progress on a corresponding vector.

  • Reply to

    Rules for some and rules for others.

    by grftt Oct 28, 2014 11:35 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 29, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    thanks... good post and quality insights as usual

    As you know, the "measures taken by the Macau government to limit the number of gaming tables in September 2011" are not mandates or even law/legislated rules, they are "guidelines" local officials have used to muscle their objectives of spurring "diversified" offerings, and, as seen here, to promote economic development and jobs wherever they see fit.

    It is also a simple truism that the "tables limits" guidelines have never been enforced and likely never will be... but for all of the noise on diversifying Macau's economy, Beijing and Macau govt officials all understand that gaming is the lifeblood of Macau and the surrounding economic development... impairing the "Golden Goose" that GR represents in any way would be incredibly shortsighted, especially since the land bank in cotai is now entirely committed.

  • Reply to

    updated Oct. GGR and market share

    by drjackcar Oct 28, 2014 8:47 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 29, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    Fair point to be sure... to recast what I wrote, the starting point is that even at Steve's "nadir" of VIP, still some 75% of peak VIP GR is being wagered.

    Who is still playing? Let's call that "an open question", but we know those who have either taken themselves out or are sitting in prison or "State detention houses" (e.g., big wigs Zhou and Chen recently in the news) are going to any of Beijing's or Shanghai's ultra lux "private clubs" these days, nor are they making any under the table -- or over the table -- "deals", nor are they gaming in Macau (or anywhere else). Dare other guys who are the next Xi headline targets playing? Doubtful...

    The questions of just how many "legit business people" [with elite wealth and a propensity to recreate with gaming in Macau] and how long does the chill effect last remain, and the unanswerable part about what will it mean to future VIP GR and premium mass and mass remain for now. Thinking through the macau piece, what if VIP is cut in half from the 75% level, and what if forward growth of mass GR is more directly functional to rooms desired by those coming to macau? The heady growth curve overall may be gone in those circumstances -- and only a small handful of companies will be the beneficiaries. Shel and more importantly Steve seems close to sanguine for now -- but in this new world order MPEL to the fore "shaping the future of Asian gaming"...

  • Reply to

    updated Oct. GGR and market share

    by drjackcar Oct 28, 2014 8:47 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 28, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    Is it president Xi or premier Li coming? We have seen several references to Xi (corruption crusader), but none to Li coming for the Portugese turnover celebration...

    As for the lingering impact on conspicuous spending in the form of junket players, it may be that the crimp is longer lasting and more severe than anyone has contemplated to date... yet still we have better than 75% of last year's VIP GR happening, right in the teeth of the worst of it. One can begin to surmise that corrupt officials and their developer pals building bridges and highways and govt buildings are not playing anymore (the guilty parties not yet hurling themselves off of tall building and those that have met that end?) as well as anyone who is afraid their past dealings can be construed as out of bounds by Xi's review standards everyone in the gray zone now understands? For all of these guys and anyone else who has been part of Xi's targeted "private club shady dealmaker" crowd just laying low these days, they may never be back.

    It seems likely, however, that those playing on junkets that have continued to come will continue to come when everyone else dares to come out of their foxholes... meanwhile, all the direct credit guys who have access to money/financing apart from the mainland continue to play with conviction as seen in WYNN's and LVS' numbers now on file.

    Meanwhile, we know MPEL's VIP is less of their mix than any of these other companies, incl LVS... and it is let's say highly likely that MPEL continues to get more than its own share of repeat customers... that reality is in the market share numbers -- more clearly through Sep and Oct to date than ever before.

    All considered, we were pleased to see WYNN come in as strong asthey did. MPEL s/b materially better YOY on mass/ebitda/adj ebitda etc... and Steve can tout paradise as "diversified IR" -- but other than the big lake, it will pale vs COD and especially Studio City on that score.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 28, 2014 7:34 PM Flag

    you've said that a few times now on this board... You really ought to read the IBD article I am referring to. After that, go back and read my comments again so you have an idea of what I was talking about here.

    As for casinos all over the place, including the Indian reservations, there have been casinos in all but 5 or 6 States for years now, and certainly that proliferation has eroded the one time gambling mecca that the Strip represented here in the U.S.... but that has absolutely nothing to do with Steve Wynn and MGM and LVS flying in China's VIP players in May and June when tables games soared to better than 30% YOY growth in Vegas (was THAT because of the casinos popping up everywhere?) and, contemporaneously, all the idiotic analysts (i.e., excl Bain and a couple others who do add value) began touting "Vegas resurgence" in unison. We and then a few others here and at the mic who actually understand the business, including Steve Wynn, made it confirmed that private jet flyins from China (vs macau) was the driver for what we called likely to be temporary blip. Table games faded to just 7%YOY in July for Vegas, and then dropped to DOWN 12% for August.

    Again, see the IBD article as Detar is leading the pack of the clueless.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 28, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Fav part of the call was his Macau leader's wrap up comments about how things are picking up and they look forward to a better Dec Q and hitting their targets for the quarter. Not sure that guy understands the forward looking statement cby an SEC registrant concept, but that was VERY upbeat and optimistic stuff he shared!

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 28, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    the answer on japan was that they will be ready when japan is... the answer on credit is that no collection problems and the junkets have been light so that is why play/credit is lighter than prior.

    Now the bigger junkets are consolidating and reshaping how they will come back in stronger, tighter form when things recover (my summary of broken english/thoughts shared by one of their women execs in macau).

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 28, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    if not obvious, Steve's circumspection on VIP, tables, smoking, october, backhanded comments re LVS competition and the current "environment" has cooled the jets a bit on the retail tape after hours... No surprise that none of the analysts are pressing him on the flap in Boston or Vegas falling off the cliff on table games in october... again, though, a key takeaway is that in Macau, mass and premium mass is the place to be given what is happening there. Anyone reading here with processing capability knows that already though. LOL

    And here comes Robin the girl wonder to ask about credit collections... be nice Steve. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 28, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    As a follow on, Steve just told the BAML analyst that October is running at the nadir of VIP GR... he also just commented he thinks the smoking ban has created some disruption on the mass side and that the mess in HK (pizza protest) is not helping anything either. He continues to couch his comments in terms of how bullish he is on Macau's future.

    Just now he is explaining that the gov't essentially told him he could have his 550 tables for the Palace which is why he said he was so "confident" about the big allotment on the last call. now he is saying he doesn;t know for sure what they will get, but that the govt tells them what they expect and then they work togewther to bring these IR to fruition. That is almost verbatim what Ho said about "getting at least our fair share" for Studio City earlier this year when asked about how confident he was about the 400-500 tables for phase 1 of Studip City. Ho actually went further to say the partnership with the Macau govt and MPEL were working together to "bring this new integrated resort to Macau" and Studio City was all about delivering the diversified gaming/spa/entertainment/shopping/dining experience they have coming -- all of which is the stated premise for getting table allocations.

    I just typed that in about 1/10th the words Steve used. LOL

  • WYNN's fat holds went by the wayside, and still they had close to flat ebitda as mass play picked up some of their slack. They also bumped the dividend 20% and wil pay a $1/share special div now. They also note that the WYNN Palace will be done in "mid 2016"... a bit later than prior commentary, but no real surprise given the heavy 2015 calendar of projects now getting close to done (Studio City, Palace and Galaxy's new property).

    It will be good to hear Steve's update on the outlook... and fun to note it looks like they took the lion's share of greatly diminished table games in Vegas for the September Q.

    Steve's call underway now... Steve saying Xi has many keeping a low profile in Macau and that mass is making things ok for the resorts there as the social profile/non gaming entertainment and conventions begin to mature. Their flattish ebitda despite the big drop off in their VIP GR confirms all of that (same as LVS)... GREAT to see the WYNN shares bounce and this good news update for MPEL (the best positioned of all these companies given that it has the least amount of VIP in the mix).

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 28, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    Here's the media now "suddenly" catching up with what we have been discussing here about the "resurgence of Vegas" as early as first week in august. LOL

    Just think, now that IBD's Detar is on the story, Shuli and Barrons tomorrow, and then whether memory impaired dolt here and his little multialias MPEL basher pal from China get it or not, next will come the genius analysts following this sector with their "timely" updates that Vegas' resurgence might not be continuing all that well now. Uh duh...

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