drjackoff/ttahoejack/toast/janetate and all of your other aliases here -- thanks for sharing what the butt of all jokes in the sector is thinking these days... surprised Bain still has a job with the Oppenheimer deal pending; embarrassments have to go. His work is always superficial, but at least Davey understands that Studio City is not going to be hurt by the Palace as GS' Asian analyst dope suggested last Tuesday. LOL
Bain was right on being super optimistic up through March last year, but continued to be one of the biggest cheerleaders on the sector, even after Zhou was arrested in late July. He was also then and still now one of the biggest "Vegas Resurgence" shouters before and after and Steve and Shelly were still talking about how great Vegas was going and Macau would be turning higher no later than 1Q15.
In that context, good to see him get to almost negative now that the entire sector is washed out and discounting that there will never be a "look back" moment Bain touted last Fall with this stock at $25 and WYNN at $180. LOL Since he loved MPEL at $45 (after we sold/hedged out gains at $43 as explained right here in Jan14 and then again March 14) and kept his PT at $58 months after even the dumb analysts dropped back to $50 on Ho's August reset, he must really love the sector down another 35% or so -- now just months ahead of all the glitter and glam that will accompany dazzling new openings in Macau.
Gee Doug, since you "talk" to Bain (you may be his only circulation client if you are not him), you might tell him that LVS and MPEL have siginificant flexibility to move tables to the new venues (though that may require some new GR sharing arrangements as noted prior)... but little old WYNN and the grandiose Palace (just the ticket for today's sentiment on ostentatious wealth displays out of Beijing) has no table flexibility to shift around tables to the Palace 1Q15 if they get the short allocation Steve is madder than a hornet about.
Seems the cabal does not understand anything about the street, that is obvious every time they run their little girl mouths... F Shirley (she is at least 5-6 of the posters here as noted many times when she has mistakenly posted on his own threads using the wrong alias) and maybe 2-3 others in their little Asian trading club... they seem to think they are influencing this tape which is the funniest part of all their bs. Last night your maxipad, the dumbest of them all, talked about getting paid $16/hour which is even funnier since no one would pay anyone for the supidity he exhibits on every post.
But about your alias here, anyone who was on a sales or equity trading trading desk a few years ago certainly appreciates your sense of humor and irony. Perhaps the funniest part is that the namesake settled claims for chump change $350k, likely 10x the capital of Shirley and the cabal combined. "God bless" ROTFL
Now morons (yahoo?) are hacking threads? My Shelly thread from last night was deleted but it matters not...
You gotta love Shelly though, he'd make a great comedian...
Now that the trial with his former Macau exec and slander allegations is underway, he is making jolly good use of that forum to tell his classic sense of humor and cheeky verve... see the Business Insider editorial if you care and need a laugh.
Paraphrasing myself from last quarter where Shel tried to dis Lawrence Ho and the HODW, Shel has long been a self-promoting carnival shouter with solid business skills, but one without a clue how to interact with the street.
LVS' hiding the sausage on the MBS property tax rebate last Q makes the point, as does Shel's forever lack of understanding that having the "most ebitda" is not the relevant metric; adj ebitda keys, win/table & ROIC are what matters. MPEL is the shiz on those scores and has been after the early 2009 financial crisis effects crunched COD's opening along with all other operators until global PBC/Fed Res liquidity actions turned the lights back on for all there.
Shel's answer to GS analyst last yr that "we don't need a cfo because we all know what is needed there" made the point of the question: the buyside and analysts think LVS needs a real cfo who understands the idea of "birds of feather need birds of a feather to talk to." Same as for his comments on cutting staff and costs are not turned in favor of operators now. Shel "speaking his mind" yesterday about having to pay employees too much to send them to Macau is also a riot (as he flies company jets everywhere).
If he and Steve think it is good practice to suddenly begin throwing elbows and shooting their mouths off at Chinese pols/policies, that may be understandable out of frustration, and maybe the other operators should be thankful for the brashness, but all so much the better for MPEL and MGM continuing to use discretion, biting their tongues while "humbly" biding time.
notice these moronic shorts have nothing to say on anything meaningful? They repeat the same bs over and over (r.g., matrixputz saying I own the stock at $43, Shirley ignoring my stomp down of the Asian office of GS idiot suggesting MPEL had trouble opening COD when it was all about timing and COD has long been the best performing property, pound for pound, on Cotai) when everyone who can read knows we own the core at $17 and the rest at now $22.50 thanks to this latest retest of the July 2013 low.
btw, Golden Slacks NY office will likely have the Asian clown fired for making GS look amateurish with the notes on MPEL and WYNN yesterday...
and the subtle new casting of Studio City (consistently overbooked for the last 2 years) as the "sister property" to COD is illuminating as well...
Obviously MPEL plans to have these two properties work fist in glove to, as Ho explained well on the last conference call, "maximize shareholder value" and remain the premier cash flow machines on Cotai relative to key counts... but if you are long, do have a read through yesterday's release if you missed it in the noise WYNN colored for their own "uncertain" situation last night and all the bs Shirley Mason and his pissant cabal post incessantly here.
They don;t sound worried about hitting the "diversification" bogey, employee morale, tables, ebitda or level of investment in the new property in yesterday's release... a nice contrast to what Steve spun on WYNN's call last night.
...[MPEL] plans with Pacha to open Macau's first megaclub, Pacha Macau, at Studio City, the eagerly anticipated cinematically-themed integrated entertainment, retail and gaming resort in Macau...
The Hollywood-inspired, gaming and entertainment complex will transport visitors into a stunning cinematic world with awe-inspiring entertainment offerings, delivered by the world's leading entertainment partners, positioning this new destination resort as Asia's entertainment capital...
...Ho, Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Melco Crown Entertainment said, "We are delighted to partner with Pacha, rightly acknowledged as the biggest nightclub brand in the world, to deliver the ultimate in international clubbing experiences to Studio City and Greater China.
"This announcement is a further step in our commitment to diversify the leisure destination appeal of Macau. It is yet another demonstration of our ongoing strategy to identify and deliver the world's leading entertainment partners, positioning this exciting new destination resort as Asia's entertainment capital."
Set against a backdrop of Art Deco-inspired architecture, Studio City will deliver movie-star treatment to all of its visitors, with the most diverse collection of unique and innovative entertainment offerings ever seen in Asia. It will represent Asia's 'next generation' of immersive, world-leading, entertainment-driven gaming and leisure experiences and will be a major catalyst in Macau's continued tourism development and diversification.
Studio City, along with its sister property, the highly-successful City of Dreams Macau, represents the next phase in Melco Crown Entertainment's ongoing strategic mission to aggregate, develop and deliver world-leading, highly innov
He then covers the ridiculous bureaucracy they are struggling with in Boston and MA gaming authorities, saying they will spend $300m on permits, approvals and toxic site remediation in return for building a $1.5-2B resort there [on dead land on the Mystic river].
And how about that bizarre reference to Longfellow's poem "Xcelsior"... "onward and upwards" says Steve.
Check out the comments at 40 minutes on through to 50 minutes or so... Gamal (running Macau) suggests Wynn's premium mass is improving sharply because they are "inviting guests in while VIP is off [and he thinks that will continue] until there is stabilization of VIP in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th quarter." Clearly WYNN thinks VIP, though crimped by half now, is going to come back.
Steve then picks up with a further rant on Macau table policy and then dives into his bleeding heart comments on the employees who are seeing their dreams crushed by policies and may soon begin "social unrest" protests against the Macau govt unless they let Steve have his big table counts for the Palace and the VIPs come back "with the help of the govt, hopefully."
~"What did we do for "diversification"? We did a big lake and air-conditioned gondolas and all VIP suites with balconies so people can smoke in non-smoking Macau"...
Classic Steve spining...
The comments on MPEL in the Asian office report are ridiculous. COD opened in january 2009 -- everyone with money went into fox holes, especially in China until China got out the pocketbook with the U.S. Fed in March 2009.
MPEL's COD has been the top opertor in Macau ever since as measured by ebitda growth, adj ebitda/table and other relevant metrics.
It won;t be a surprise to see this HK GS twit get fired over the WYNN upgrade yesterday, right into the big dividend cut and Steve's downcast spin on Vegas and Boston.
But hey Shirley, you only did about 9 posts last night and HK... do you think you caused any unindicated panic on MPEL? What a moron.
Real MPEL news in the snarl of diversionary bs here.
Manila ramping right on expectations and VIP crank begins this Q in the Crown hotel's 300 VIP suites there as told by MPEL prior and in one on ones and as confirmed Friday by Belle (MPEL's partner on COD manila).
btw, MPEL does not have the Vegas problems that MGM, LVS and WYNN have, and MPEL does not have a new casino project coming in boston, built on a former chemical plant run by Monsanto since the 1930s and rendering the land a toxic waste nightmare where they can;t even dump collected snow from new parking lots into the adjacent river. Glad MPEL does not have either of those "UNCERTAINTIES" Steve lamented on tonight's call for WYNN... and glad MPEL's cost per key at Studio city is less than half the ostentatious and incredibly expensive $4B plus hotel known as the Palace on cotai that Steve himself called "the most extravagant hotel in the world."
Steve sounded angry tonight, as if he's learned their "diversification" is not as good as model citizen Studio City's program which Ho quipped last call has "more diversification than the rest of Macau combined." D'ya suppose just maybe Steve has learned he's not going to get anywhere near the 550 tables he says the former regime promised him? Remember Steve saying: "How confident am I we will get 550 tables? As confident as I can get!"
Long MPEL only now and glad MPEL and LVS are in a vastly better postion as to footprint, diversification and non-VIP focus than either WYNN, Galaxy or MGM. If not apparent, our recent round trip on WYNN from $123 to $130 will not be replayed anytime soon as WYNN is now down the list while lots of the "dividend- oriented" funds exit WYNN on the unfortunate cut. otp, glad MPEL's dividend is peanuts and that it is conservatively geared anyway... and that MPEL is still generating almost $1B annualized ebitda as of rough Dec Q -- before any revenue contribution from COD manila and, soon, Studio City.
Seems Steve "forgets" his comments to explain last year's surge in table game play April through July 2014 last year was all about his whales ["Asians and Latins"] he flew into Vegas last year. As discussed here a bunch then and throughout the summer, those guys left Macau and China casinos last year, especially once Beijing put Zhou under arrest in late July last year, later charging him with massive billions of corruption and fraud against China. Those players are not going to come back to Vegas -- they are amongst the hunted in Jinping's "Foxhunt" and now "Skynet."
On that aspect, great fun hearing Steve talking about how the "uncertainties" since October 2014 [OCTOBER he emphasized] continue -- until when he does not know.
Steve has been close to funny thrashing about the dividend cut. Hey, their ebitda is hurt on the VIP focus, and his references to "political/policy uncertainties" creating the risk of "social protests" by Macaunese people against not the casinos, but instead the local govt, are a fun series of comments.
A few questions pressing them more on Vegas weakness and why going to Boston now with weak GGR in various US markets. WYNN's answer? Capital and construction are committed, and while ROIC may be lower than original plan while uncertainties persist, the projects )palace and Boston) still make sense. He really went on about how cool the lake will be at the Palace -- "THE photo op place of all of China" he touts.
Call still going on -- but most of the grief he is sharing is about the U.S. and VIP specific... not items that impair MPEL's Macau/Cotai occupancy and business focus, and all of which make COD Manila even more valuable.
Now Steve is laughing saying all of this requires one to maintain a sense of humor... LOL
A few final thoughts on the WYNN call (off to sneak in 9 holes before dinner)...
If I were long MGM tonight, their solid Vegas convention business is comforting vs LVS and WYNN results/outlook in Vegas. Also, Steve's "no recovery and concern Vegas will be flat to down 2Q from last year" comments (see my other thread re tables games April-July in Vegas last year and before they collapsed) should not surprise anyone paying attention. MGM's Vegas numbers and Macau too should be better than WYNN's (less VIP oriented in both).
MPEL should fare the best -- no Vegas piece to start with! and then especially with MPEL's Macau business plan being increasingly mass centric (mass occupancy and table games was WYNN's brightest spot in Macau this quarter) and COD Manila is now firmly on the rise... and also with MPEL having the absolute showpiece of "diversification" opening of Studio City 3Q. SC will fill the rooms -- and not hurt COD much we'll suggest. As for filling up the monolithic rooms of LVS and Galaxy? They seem ready to live with 85% occp until things improve... not bad all things considered, particularly vs Vegas ops.
On the CC Steve was openly alarmed about having spent call it twice as much per room key as anyone else is doing on Macau. The $4B plus cost creating the new Palace is one BIG WHITE ELEPHANT if Beijing and Macau continue to frown on VIP play and "ostentatious wealth displays." Mainlanders may want a pic of themselves near the lake, but they won't be staying/playing at the Palace!
Meanwhile, those who actually understand the different companies' business plans, including the big owners other than Packer and Ho's 68%, it is no surprise that WYNN is concerned about their table allocation. Unlike LVS and MPEL, WYNN does not have enough tables to move any to the palace, and that the VIP crimp has hurt them by a few K tons more than LVS and MPEL.
Then again, Steve is great. His "posturing" and shouting about Macaunese plight will ring some bells!
Cotai had 97% occupancy... Moron Stanley looking sort of sloppy, n'est pas? and that is with the VUIP reno not completed until February.
VIP down about 50%yoy... not too bad considering last year's whopping GGR and WYNN's historical emphasis on this business. Hold in line.
Mass was down only 7% - surprisingly strong vs LVS and their own book of business, but adjusted for way fat win rate more like down 8%+. Considering that MPEL is similarly focused on the cut above grind mass, this bodes well for MPEL's March outcomes (though what matters is the forward news, not the rough comps to last year's record 1Q results.
Slot handle down 25% and win rate up a tough confluence, but not all that meaningful except at LVS.
They say palace in first half now... tighter than prior "mid year" completion target after push back from first Q earlier.
Looking forward to Steve's comments and outlook starting momentarily.
btw, the notion of expansion to other Philippines locations is interesting and has been aired by grftt here a few times... interesting given that MPEL would likely be the manager of such operations given the COD Manila ownership structure.
Belle's CFO says "COD Manila is fully booked weekends and weekdays"... so much for the bs naysaying. LOL
"Melco Crown officials, in February, pegged the daily foot traffic in City of Dreams Manila at more than 15,000. That number may have grown since last month’s opening of the indoor theme park Dream Play, Belle Executive Vice-President for Integrated Resorts Armin B. Raquel-Santos said.
“Right now we’re still ramping up the volumes so the real numbers will come out in the next six months to one year,” Mr. Ocier said.
With Philippine licensee Bloomberry Resorts Corp. expanding overseas, Belle intends to focus on City of Dreams Manila given the strength of the domestic market.
Mr. Santos said hotel rooms at City of Dreams are fully booked on weekends and weekdays, a “good indication that domestic tourism is very strong.”
“We just opened. We’re still ramping up. For us to take our eyes off the ball right now would make us susceptible to errors,” Mr. Gana said.
Belle, however, is not closing its doors on pursuing expansion opportunities once PAGCOR decides to give out new gaming licenses in the future.
“If we were to expand beyond City of Dreams Manila, our first priority will be Metro Manila and then other parts of the Philippines,” Mr. Gana said.
Looking forward to hearing what Lawrence Ho has to say about his Manila project -- the proving ground to show Japan what he, Packer and the team can do even in the presently difficult gaming market conditions in SE Asia.
Ho has said revs should top $1.2B in 2016, but COD is on track already...
goog this title for details of what Belle (MPEL's partner on COD Manila) told shareholders and the press in manila yesterday.
Melco Crown in talks with junket operators for City of Dreams Manila
A few fun excerpts:
MELCO Crown (Philippines) Resorts, Inc. is in talks with junket operators to bring in high rollers to City of Dreams Manila, Belle Corp. officials said yesterday, but noted that the strength of the domestic market is sufficient to sustain the gaming business.
On the sidelines of the company’s stockholders’ meeting in Pasay City, Belle Vice-Chairman Willy N. Ocier told reporters that the City of Dreams Manila is boosting its VIP market and targets to go “full blast” after May.
Activity at City of Dreams Manila, which held its soft opening in December, has been in line with expectations, Belle Chief Financial Officer Manuel A. Gana said, but declined to provide specific numbers since it is Melco that is operating the casino.
“Mass market has been fairly healthy. We didn’t have VIPs yet in the first quarter,” Mr. Gana said.
Asked to elaborate on [VIP], Ocier said: “’Yung in-announce nila talaga (What they have announced)… is Suncity [Group], which is really the biggest in the world.”
“Since we opened, it’s a process of Melco signing up junket operators so that’s really what has been happening,” Mr. Gana said.
Under the present regulatory framework of the PAGCOR, COD can operate up to 365 gaming tables, 1,680 slot machines and 1,680 electronic table games. [N.B. this is only phase 1, the expansion phase has more than twice the land set aside. Also note COD had only about 1/2 the tables open as of last month -- presumably the other half is set aside for the private VIP salons together with the 300 VIP suites opening up starting now as told in one-on-ones and now confirmed by Belle yesterday.]
an how about that matrixtrade idiot! He is the fuzz nuts who said the stock was going to $75 when i explained why we were selling out the trade allocation and hedging the core longat $43 in Jan 2014 and then again in March 2014.
Amazing how stupid this putz is... he can;t be in the multialias cabal. LMAO
Paul's "much ado about nothing" is correct. The new "analyst" took over for the one fired and in his little "research" piece he explains why he retained the "reduce" rating. Get a copy of the report to goof on the lack of content.
LOL at darqnite putz part of Shirley's little multialias cabal. Check this out from prior posts vs his bs again today that he "sold out" at $37 (it was $36 last week). He must think everyone is dumb because he is
"From january 7th:
and speaking of entertainment... how about that darqnite putz...
On Nov 6th he tells us he's buying at $25 for the first time as "value" then on Jan 7th tells us he'll buy it at $17. LOL
"blacqknight1 • Nov 6, 2014 2:33 AM
I joined the house of pain tonight (1st position) I am begining to think there is some form of value here"
...It gets funnier. On December 17th, he suggested (right at the retest of the completed head and shoulders but successful bounce at the July 2013 low for MPEL, LVS and WYNN I discussed that day) that this is almost down to where he'd buy it at $17. That’s our basis on the core alright — excluding numerous hedging gain offsets and all of the trading gains taken out since 2011 (many discussed right here as they were done) that have reduced our “economic basis" to below zero on the core."
"I already did "mark your words"
From january 7th:
and speaking of entertainment... how about that darqnite putz:
On Nov 6th he tells us he's buying at $25 for the 'first time' as "value", then on Jan 7th he tells us he'll buy it at $17.
blacknight1 Jan 7, 2015
"Almost at your 17... my buy price... you can call me names when i buy...lol" Less
When all the while, this is the f head doing the name calling and bs "ad hominem" nonsense with his little girl "cabal" in glass houses. holy S stupid
Get a copy of that too... nice recap except they don;t understand that Vegas GGR has only increased about 12% over the last 15 years, nor do they understand the "why" of that...
Asian whales don;t play in Vegas or elsewhere in the U.S anymore, and Vegas is a big dental/car/tech/CMA convention place these days, not so much even about blue hair tour buses out of California or elsewhere as now 42 of the 50 U.S. States have legalized gaming -- on and off native reservations.
So Vegas has been forced to come up with ways to ramp non-gaming revenue, whereas in Macau, it is more about being "required to please the whim of pols and optics related thereto. Those pols are going to increasingly see that their caprice is inuring to the benefit of Manila and the other close proximity SE Asian venues... but hey, if that is what they want to do with the high roller diversion, LVS and MPEL are going to best while the others are a couple of years behind de-emphasizing VIP play. Especially given this at least temporary newfound emphasis (David Group closed 3 or 7 salons on macau and said then that the VIP cleansing will be over and things more back toward normal soon), whence they will be back to Macau with bigger groups vs the current shift to other venues), Macau/Beijing still need to get the infrastructure projects done with more urgency than the current none, or they will really thwart pace on Hengqin and Macau as THE gaming, tourism and entertainment venue for mainlander mass visitors over the next couple of years.
But hey, maybe Shelly was right that this is going to happen more quickly now... see his comments on the LVS call from last week.
This part is fun to read from a corp finance perspective. S&P posits that MPEL and its partner in the investment group that comprises MCE (which in turn controls "Studio City Co Ltd" -- the latter the issuer of Studio City's structured debt) will support the project as it becomes more significant to MCE and its owners, and that they, and implicitly, the seven banks in the consortium with authority over the structured notes covenants, will negotiate in good faith to make needed mods and otherwise support the notes to remedy any covenant issues (capital levels, debt coverage ratios, operating performance, table allocations, etc). Gosh, we think Studio City will become more valuable as it ramps over time too. hahaha
"We believe Studio City still has sufficient time to renegotiate covenant terms with its creditors, if required. In our opinion, Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd.(MCE) Group is likely to support Studio City in case of credit stress, and this support underpins the rating...
The stable outlook on Studio City reflects our expectation that the project in Macau will be on budget and will not face any significant delays," said Ms. Lin. "We expect the company to remain highly leveraged over the next 12 months. The outlook also factors in ongoing managerial and financial support from MCE Group."
We could lower the rating if we no longer assess Studio City to be a "strategically important" subsidiary of MCE Group, particularly if the group materially reduces its stake in the company. We could also lower the rating if we believe the group credit profile of MCE Group has weakened.
We could raise the rating on Studio City if we raise the group credit profile of MCE Group. We could also raise the rating if we assess Studio City as a "core" entity of the group, although that is less likely over the next 12 months."
Get a copy of the full report and enjoy the coverage math... lots of room to service the debt while SC gets going hard.