Sorry you are so distressed over this allocation... but repeatedly trying to dis me casts you poorly... Sorry you feel that way.
Join your new multiple alias pal mytek/tahoe/idiotpumper/blacknite reviewing posts from the past -- but unless you want to sound as stupid as him, work to recall the context of caveats shared many times (e.g., China economy, geopolitics, and spec money only pending recovery of the 50d ema, which was around $34 then from recall, etc and only then with STRONG +IMF on the double dip to below $30.
Then you can go have at our historical PT calls since 2012. You may have some memory issues as per your post above, but our PTs have been better than ANY analyst following the sector, including Bain who we said was consistently too conservative right up through EOY 2013 -- correctly so.
About that $40 PT? We lowered to that when the consensus was still above $50 for this year. We won't get there without the series of events needed to solidify mm sentiment we have discussed at length here... and no, it is not about VIP.
You can also have fun going back to see our original PT for 2014 was $40 back in late 2013 when the analyst group had all moved to above $50 and how we raised to $50 only after seeing 4Q numbers and Ho's call for 15%+ GGR this year as echoed by EVERY ONE of the group CEOs and confirmed mid yr for manila. Did you forget, again, that we called the top in Jan and Feb 2014 while you ranted about $75 this year?
As for where we are now? Yes, I have explained the "we" to you a few times... go look it up if you are that bored, but we think MPEL will lead the group to new highs once the turn begins this cycle.
again, spec capital only, and no tech guys would touch the broken chart -- which is why the risk reward is so compelling for those not "trading" this and who actually manage money for a living and have done so for longer than the current bull run.
Seriously, I hope you can relax soon. MPEL should be fine long term.
People make a living writing revisionist history; others try to dis people and look like they are grumpy old men feebly trying assign responsibility for their decisions.
"Negative growth" matrix? Mass is still positive growth, right up through last week, and the ENTIRE (if caps helps you) analyst group was calling for a quick resumption of growth right after the WC and 13 bs noise items went off page in July, until that didn't happen as seen in weak reports/fat holds from LVS and WYNN and especially MGM in late july -- followed by Ho telling EVERYONE the real story, that all of the Macau CEOs, analysts and yes, buysiders underestimated the impact of corruption hounding by the chinese govt.
In just in the last 6 weeks, following Ho's commentary that mass was likely to run more like mid-teens than above 30% yoy and that VIP tours would likely remain soft until next year (when he foresees a return to mid teens growth for macau as all the new properties begin to come on line and, presumably, he thinks the corruption witch hunt will be done) did the entire analyst community figure out that they need to come off of single digit blended overall growth for this year... yeah... math of 15% mass and negative 15-20% VIP through year end with "remain positive on 2015 and beyond" forever outlooks also being pulled in by some.
You can call that "quick" but no mm we know would. About that $22? Ok, like the $75 you forecasted last February. But what is a "correlation efficient'? Or max pain and the rest of that?
Those with tech knowledge/perspective will recall that with the retest below $30 I pointed out that no one chart oriented would consider adding below the 50d ema and only then if the outlook for macau is brightening sufficiently to see surging volume (positive IMF). No disciplined quant or technical trader would buy the stock until then (contrasted with your "scaling in" as you've explained it).
Hedging and spec $ onlyare still indicated until +IMF again
thasnks for the bain note this morning... hedging his optimism as it were but confirming to see MPEL holding share even though we now have Bain emphasizing premium mass and VIP are under pressure. Ho's team and their "franchise book" looks to be serving the company well.
Enjoyed your comments here too, because they likely well capture what many think of macau these days...and while the "corruption crackdown" impact on the macau frnachises' whale player/VIP tour operator psyche obviously punched harder than Ho and every other CEO and we and every "analyst" following the sector and, we'll add, every other pm adding shares since February, thought it would, the shares are looking mightily washed out now.
In the end analysis, stocks are all about risk reward... given Bain's recent work with many and that he has a front door relationship with the macau execs when most "analysts" writing research have never been to China, let alone Macau, and then even further out of it, having a one on one meeting relationship with execs running casinos and VIP tours there a couple of times/year... it is likely Bain has a better bead on forward VIP tour booking and what direct credit players are thinking/feeling and doing than does most of the rest of the spewing heads talking S about macau growth rates into forever forward.
For us, it has been a great time to keep some powder dry... MPEL is still stupid cheap... but the airlines are really nutty as investments down here as are the rest of the washed out consumer discretionary stocks -- bottom of the board RSIs are often opportunity screaming... and hey, to Dave's question, BABA down another $10 or so and we'll trade that too.
jim, you are talking to an idiot who uses several aliases to say the same mindless drivel and overtly insulting people on all boards he frequents. He has no view on anything of substance regarding the sector -- ever. Here, he uses is idiotpumper/mytek -- you know, the dufus that has brought up your "Adding at $32" thread about 5 times -- and his latest alias asking 5 times about whether my former PT of $50 is still there as if I am trying to influence the trading of retail investors holding about .0001% of daily tape here. Too stupid to imagine really... but notice how those aliases all post together with the same comments and syntax issues?
As you know, we held out $50 when matrix was talking about $75... and the $50 was below consensus and lowered to $40 on the generally fat holds and still weak results from WYNN, LVS, and MGM and then MPEL's lowering of mass expectations and the ongoing corruption shakeout. After this week, the "analysts" he is now saying were way ahead of everyone are belatedly lowering the consensus PT to now $41 -- still a buck above our lowering to $40 two months ago. LOL
You are a dolt, to be sure, but a persistent one.
As for balance, Shuli's articles are consitently poorly researched and written, even when she is writing something favorable. You must be her girlfriend. LOL
drjack and me along with a few others were concerned about the banking system last Fall, and discussed it often here. did you miss all of that too? How about back in early August when Ho reset expectations for the entire secotr saying mass would soon be running at half the ytd run rate --- you must have missed our balance of lowering our PT to $40 when the consensus was still above $50. You obviously weren't around when we bailed out of MPEL on the first trip above $16, suggested hedging many times to great effect, and called out the top and then double top above $43... And what do you have to say for my suggestion it was going to pull back to the $37.50 or so 50 d ema between those tops? Unbalanced? LOL
More "balance"? I am to date the only one I have seen discuss Chanos' real estate collapse essays from three years ago and running. No collpase yet, but the vcentral planners are now supporting the banks to promote housing stability having overtly slammed the brakes on housing 11 months ago.
If you want to continue trying to dis me with your stupidity on quality threads, I'll take the time to point out how stupid your comments are when I happen to see them and need a laugh. Amazing how some morons seem to thrive on throwing sand to provoke a kick in the head.
Don't know if you saw my other post on this Karen Tang junk, but one article over the weekend suggested Tang was first to suggest whales from china were playing in Vegas and elsewhere. I don't know where they find these "journalists", but as you know we've been talking above Vegas tables games here since a month before Steve Wynn confirmed they were using the jet fleet for VIP tours from China back in late July. Tang was also a big throb on Vegas' "recovery" a couple months back when Steve Wynn's private fleet was bringing in the VIP tours from China... April had a double digit number, then May and June showed tables games up more than 30% YOY... right before the jet travel slowed and table games revenue dropped back to 7% for July. The Nevada gaming commission has not yet published August, but they may be staring at the numbers trying to figure out why August continued to see tables games drop hard from May/June levels (Steve's planes likely not shuttling VIP from China into Vegas)... meanwhile, Vegas slots (some 2/3 of Vegas GR these days) are about flat to down in recent months... so much for the big "recovery" of gaming revenue in Vegas.
Meanwhile, Bain has dropped his PT to $54 last week (down from $57 in early August when Ho "reset" everyone's idea of mass gaming growth for the rest of this year -- to about half the prior level). Haven't seen anyone referencing this yet, but if easing premium mass is driving that (given the rooms are all still full throughout macau as per latest data and grftt's confirming trip notes) because those direct credit players decide to "low profile" for the near term, then our reduced PT (lowered to $40 on the Ho update) will prove to be optimistic as well. Interesting that Bain, after meeting with macau execs, decided to trim $3 vs $10 as we did the day of Ho's comments in August and the sellside has done since.
We are not trading this matrix... Your "we the people" is helping you what? We liked you better when you posted here with respect for others (which we generally do unless putzes try to dis us on the way to the ignore bin.
You can trend trade, we could care less what you do. Trend analysis has nothing to do with our serious allocations on fundamentals/quant valuation metrics. "Dis" that with goofy comments if you want, barebutbob, idiotpumper/mytek/darnite multiple alias s head must think we give a S about that too. LOL
You may think the analysts matter, but the historical record is that professional buysiders and Packer and Ho don't give any accord to what they write -- see last Q 13Fs and Pimco and Gabelli's recent comments as well as the chunky buyback filing for recent examples of that. "Analysts" reduced their price targets and estimates in 2009 and then again in 2012 -- within a month of the final bottoms. The reality is that the analysts in this sector are good as contraindicators (Bain excluded) ... and Karen Tang, Shuli's favorite, is the weakest of them all. Her update Friday after hours? Gee, We put our thumb in the air and now think mass gaming and VIP may never recover in Macau. Talk about weak... We now know the corruption rumblings are what has cooled the VIP and premium mass play... all the rest of the noise was just that. Tang has also been loud on the "Vegas Recovery"... that lasted two months before China VIP stalled out there. LOL
Your new PT of $22 cheers us! We file that up there with your $75 PT for MPEL you wrote about in January with the stock at $44... right when we explained we had sold out the catalyst (not trend) trade slug at $43 and hedged out half the core thinking the stock would soon retrace to the 50d ema around $37 (which it did 10 days later before the double top at $45).
A month later and on the verge of Golden Week, the Macau names are still scraping along the bottom. A few things have become more clear though.
China's economy "slowing" continues to make headlines, but those paying attention and actually processing what the central planners are doing can more clearly see the shift from manufacturing/export based growth to one more focused on better employment, infrastructure, service and consumer demand can see that "slowing" to 7% is not going to cause the sky to fall on china or macau. Nor is cooling off real state and other white hot aspects of china's growthin recent years -- it is all about a measured reshaping of their economy which will likely continue to drive negative headlines, but not forever ruin macau as a gaming mecca.
It is also now more apparent that the "corruption crackdown" is not about UnionPay cards or gaming; rather, it is focused on corrupt politicians taking bribes and putting personal gains/bribe taking ahead of State interests driving low profile of China's elite wealthy over the summer and now into the Fall pending playout.
As measured by sector stock prices now as well as analyst sentiment and pseudo journalist opinions reported daily it seems, Macau is forever hosed... again, precisely upside down from where sentiment from those corners were just 8 months ago --when really nothing of substance has changed except some 30 or so suicides or corruption crackdown targets, and now we see those "investigations are moving from the big "tigers" and now down to chasing the smaller "flies"...
Meanwhile, the ballyhooed "Vegas GR recovery" seemingly lasted all of two months before fading in july as the private jet fleets apprently focused on only Steve's "Latins" and the China whales stayed home... the latest from JPM suggests the VIP tours are calling Macau venues again though -- seems they wonder if anyone still has tables enough for big VIP tours. Ho is "repositioning" Altira for them at last report...
btw, Aquis Resort at the Great Barrier Reef may one day be a terrific family resort with lots to do (swimming snorkeling, golf, etc) but protestors have already curtailed the scale the developers wanted (almost a village unto itself as it were) and the originally targeted opening date of sometime in 2018 may be wishful thinking... so is the idea that they can get over 1m vistors a year to come and stay for their intended average of 4 night stays... GFL with that, and it is dubious that VIP tours will be part of that extended stay concept with families in wet bathing suits and flip flops.
Regardless, as Rowen Craigie so aptly summarized, “The challenge remains to get the players to Australia."
This is a great piece if you missed it amongst the mounds of diversionary posts here. Section on HDW at COD starts at 20th minute, but the entire video is quality input.
Seems there are plenty of Chinese climbing the wealth ladder despite China's growth "slowdown" to only 7%+ or so... article from Jing Daily last week. Perhaps a few more articles suggesting the "low profile" driving venues away from Macau will result in that visit discussed by Bain last week...
CHINA’S MILLIONAIRE RANKS RISE BY 3.8 PERCENT
Beijing still holds the crown for China’s most HNWIs.
Although China’s economic growth is slowing, the Hurun Report’s latest research finds that the country’s number of wealthy individuals is still increasing with a higher growth rate than last year.
The “Hurun Wealth Report 2014″ released today states that the country has 1,090,000 millionaires and 67,000 super-rich, or those with a net worth over RMB100 million (US$16 million). This amounts to year-on-year growth rates of 3.8 percent and 3.7 percent respectively, marking a rise after the rate reached a five-year low last year.
Beijing retains its perch as the Chinese city with the most high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) with a total of 192,000, followed by Guangdong with 180,000 and Shanghai with 159,000. Meanwhile, Tianjin is the city with the fastest-growing number of millionaires.
China’s millionaires are made up mostly of private business owners, professional stock market investors, real estate investors, and high-salaried executives, according to the report, while the super-rich are typically private business owners, real estate investors, and professional stock market investors.
According to Hurun, the growth is going to continue for the foreseeable future: it predicts that in three years, China will have 1,210,000 millionaires and 73,000 super-rich.
Look below for Hurun’s chart of the Chinese cities with the most millionaires:
We did not play BABA -- it is a great story, but chasing supercharged IPOs is not for us and we don't have anyone following it. We had a small YHOO trade on at $38 and added a smaller chunk at $40 when what looked like uneconomic hedges of BABA longs went on at the start of BABA trading Friday. We think it will bounce back to mid $40s as early as next week when the BABA options are listed.
Thanks for the notes Dave... great to hear of the crowds in Cotai and comments on House of Dancing Water... the Bloomberg video (Macau: A New Direction) has a cool segment on HODW as well. As for Altira, it will be interesting to see how Ho's "repositioning" of Altira for the "large VIP tours" works out once operators decide it is time to come back full force... Perhaps it is just our view, but given that VIP play on Macau will still represent something on the order of $20B of gaming this year -- so more than the R.O.W. VIP combined -- despite the "low profile" effects of China's "corruption crackdown," and MPEL's leadership on direct credit (premium mass) conversion from VIP over the last couple of years, MPEL is likely going to be just fine on ebitda progress... again, particularly once the VIP crimping in Macau fades.
We know MPEL's VIP at Altira was down roughly 1/3 last Q (YOY), and the comps will be tough into EOY since last year was so solid for Macau VIP...
btw, Yesterday a reporter asked Jack Ma what implications China's "slowing growth" would have on Chinese consumers and growing middle class. Ma excitedly said that China's citizenry and growing middle class is in the early stages of empowerment, upward mobility and wealth creation (my summary of what he said) and that the future is bright for all of China... all of that is supportive of the idea that as with the rest of China, these are still very early days for Macau's growth.
Thanks again for sharing your trip notes!
Bloomberg's video released last week is a well done recap of what is happening in and around Macau. Worth the 23 minutes viewing time. goog the title above for the link.
"Macau and gambling have gone hand-in-hand for more than half a century...but there's far more to the city than just the tables - there's an ambitious plan to create what’s been dubbed "The Orlando of China." That includes more leisure and entertainment venues, theme parks, tens of thousands more hotel rooms, and first-class convention facilities. On "Macau: A New Direction," we speak to the top business players and policymakers as Macau positions itself for the next decade and beyond."
In case you missed it, Manila is apparently not going to be open for Golden Week. See my other thread on it, but the website update says the "Grand Opening" will now be during the 4Q.
As Ho has said many times, they won't open anything until it is 100% ready from now on, but good to see the career opening page down to a small fraction of the openings early this summer ... less than 220 or so positions still sought, but something like 3k employees in training/ready to go at COD Manila now.
Thanks for the great update Dave!
Studio City site looks clean organized and coming along well -- at least 8 cranes on site, windows going in and close to capping near term. Excellent! WYNN's new resort behind COD coming along well too. Great to see the rail between the back of COD and Steve's "Palace" going in... both should be great for COD foot traffic.
MGM's property and LVS' Parisan look to be stalled as to construction... glad Ho is brilliant at playing by the rules and with friends when it comes to plans and permit approvals/construction programs. LVS and MGM stalls look awful on site.
OTP, Murren gave everyone a heads up that MGM's new development in Cotai was at "stall speed" while WYNN, MPEL and Galaxy properties are all cranking along... that "catalyst" must be Moron Stankey's idea of MGM being the most compelling to buy. LOL
As an aside, the bloomberg article on macau is close to comedy... if it was written in May, before the big table games numbers for Vegas in May and june and then the BIG falloff in July, or if the author had done a little work to see how tiny the dollars are playing in Australia through the end of June as macau went into the 20-30% VIP fade mode, it would have been relevant. Good to see the stocks moving up hard into the teeth of all the analysts dropping their outlooks to dour, and all the weak sauce media doing their typical butch "reporting."
Re "some went to Australia"... I was joking if not obvious... in four (4) years after opening they tripled revenue a WHOPPING $370m for the year ended June (incl the macau gift)??? BFD... MPEL did $5B last year, most of that at one property (COD) while taking tables out of the other (Altira).
Australia is not quite ready to knock the lights out of macau... COD manila will likely do more revenue in the FIRST full year (2015).
p.s. For those who missed the memo, after Vegas had 30%+ table GR growth yoy for May and june, it collapsed back to 7% in Vegas in july... and slots are running negative YOY as well in vegas -- so much for the heralded "Vegas resurgence", huh?
Bloomberg piece I mentioned earlier (from a month ago)
goog a sentence of these quotes to see the entire Bloomberg article too, but the gist is that Chinese players with family or other business interests there may come to play or vacation there as the golf courses are nice, some are near beaches, etc... but it is a "Distant Market" for the Chinese and other Asians as the article expounds.
The most interesting part is about how VIP were enticed to go there (for 2Q anyway) -- seems the author doesn't understand the business were understood by the author it seems -- the net hold on baccarat was 1.47%, revealing they must be paying whopping commissions to the tour operators bringing VIP there. That is pretty enticing, huh? And how about that paragraph on "free rooms"?
Revenue at Echo’s international VIP rebate business, which lures overseas gamblers prepared to bet large sums with the promise of free hotel rooms, food, drink and transport, more than tripled in the four years through June to A$397 million ($370 million), the company said Aug. 13."
Imagine that, they paid about double the tour operator commissions and got people to fly tours there while the April/May/June crackdown took full brunt on Macau VIP play? So some went to Vegas, and some went went to Aussieland.
As for Crown's stock going up, the big delta for them is MPEL dividends! See this:
"Crown, Australia’s largest casino company, rose the most in almost a year in Sydney trading on Aug. 14 after the company posted a 53 percent jump in second-half VIP revenue [from little to some]. The stock climbed 1.8 percent... while Echo gained 0.6 percent to A$3.20. [Remember, Packer's Crown has al;ready failed twice in Vegas and is now on try #3.]
“The challenge remains to get the players to Australia,” chief executive Rowen Craigie said on an investor call.
That is an understatement!
As noted on matrix's thread about Manila opening soon, we don;t think Australia poses much if any of a sustained threat to either Macau or Manila prospects. official data on GGR in Australia is sketchy and premised on estimates, which make sense given the new integrated resorts there are new and not much of a cluster to work together with...
The Bloomberg article I mentioned is one of a few noting the aussie market is a yawn. Here is another one from last Fall from IBT, a retail mag -- see last parag
"Global Gambling: Macau Booms, Singapore Slows, Japan In Anticipation"
The Chinese gambling haven of Macau is booming as VIPs spend cash more heavily and rapidly, while Singaporean gamblers slow down and Japanese politicians back groundbreaking casinos... In Macau, record revenues in August and March earlier this year could help the city achieve revenue growth of 17 percent for 2013, or $44 billion for the year overall. Fresh infrastructure, like a new intercity railway completed in December 2012, or the new Chimelong casino due in late 2013, will attract more visitors from China, who represent the vast majority of Macau’s gamblers.
Macau’s success this year and revenue growth forecast of 17 percent compares favorably to Las Vegas’ projected revenue growth of 2 percent for this year as well as 2014, according to Citi analysts.
Although big spenders... drove the revenue gains, more ordinary gamblers could also boost margins for Macau casino operators. “There could be further upside to our revised [mass] estimates if mass GGR beats our estimates..."
Still... casinos in Japan are several years away from breaking ground, with openings likely to happen around 2020.
The report also covers gambling markets in Australia, the United States, the Philippines, and Cambodia. Revenue growth prospects for Australian and U.S. casinos remain very sluggish.