and speaking of entertainment and cork soakers, how about that darqnite putz...
On Nov 6th he tells us he's buying at $25 for the first time as "value", then he tells us he'll buy it at $17. LOL
"blacqknight1 • Nov 6, 2014 2:33 AM
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I joined the house of pain tonight (1st position) I am begining to think there is some form of value here
He invites abuse and is some cork soaker all right. He also has and hetrouble keeping track of all of those known aliases from over there in Thailand. From his “sheethead" posts reveling in the bs of the HK Post nonsense article last month (as in here where his aliases all come toigether saying the same bs on the same threads), he reminds us that the multitude includes: blaqnite, sheetwise, fckanyc, fkuimbecile, idiotpumper, mytek, tahoedipshite, and I forget the other 4 or 5... Funny and ironic as hell this putz says our allocations are phantom when, as a few here know, we actually understand money management, taking/hedging risk and all of that.
It gets funnier...On December 17th, he suggested (right at the retest of the completed head and shoulders but successful bounce at the July 2013 low for MPEL, LVS and WYNN I discussed that day) that this is almost down to where he'd buy it at $17. That’s our basis on the core alright — excluding numerous hedging gain offsets and all of the trading gains taken out since 2011 (many discussed right here as they were done) that have reduced our “economic basis" to below zero on the core. LOL. Yet his lame post reminded me that he had a previous post on where you bought the stock. Back on November 6th, he shared this stupidity with the stock at $25. Funny as hell this moron says my trades are phantom when as a few here know, that is "not exactly” our story.
"Almost at your 17... my buy price... you can call me names when i buy...lol" RTFLOL
Douglas douglas douglas (get it?) -- I do...
More ad hominem bs directed at me (this alias only?) talk about ironic while you tell me not to "attack" your attempts to dis me.
The "gun" that we have stuck by on this story is that MPEL has the (i) best biz plan, (ii) top adj ebitda and win per table, (iii) biggest expansion from now through Tower 5 opening, (iv) Manila, worth more than your dismissal of it, and (v) brighter days ahead.
Our "optimism" is that all of that is correct. Moreover, we don't think the sky is falling on China or Macau, nor do we agree with you that the stock won't possibly recover until VIP and GGR are running significantly higher in YOY terms -- the 24% rally over 9 days in December showed that, right up until McKnight publishes that GR will not be anything other than negative yoy throughout 2015 and guys like you and Detar with IBD conflate market events, currency concerns and panic oil pricing with Macau prospects.
As for the rally, on at least three separate posts you try to dis me by saying the "sharp rally" has faded... again, conflation aside, I called it a sharp rally because 24% is a lot in 9 days. On the same thread I emphasized it can easily retrace. I also said the Dec results were dreadful on X's visit -- old news.
As for being "touchy?" LOL Here you confuse my willingness to call out your bs coyness here with being "touchy." You apparently don't recall or understand the many times we've shared right here (and otherwise as you know "Douglas") that we have hedged the core and trading positions many times since January 2014, including at $43, reload at $37.50, sale of trading slug again at $43 in March and so on... yet while you may have read those posts, you must not have processed or understood what terms like "box hedge", paired trade (offset shorts on WYNN, LVS and MGM at varied levels) and for the different reasons often shared right here, or writing option premium for the monkeys. Been at this awhile...
As for ad hominem comments... mine are not that -- yours were precisely that as they have been under this alias you use for several months. Go back and read them as well as my retorts when you have done so. My replies to your comments directed at me have not been disrespectful or full of angst directed at you (you comments don't p#$%$ those filters) -- I've tried mightily to reserve stomping for putzes are attacking me prior to stuffing themselves away on ignore.
Like it or not, your "observation" above read like an insecure smart #$%$ comment trying to dis me which is why I laid out the very specific and detailed reply pointing out how hollow your comment was.
And same applies to your last comment... Did you read my reply? It answers your question in spades. My perspectives have been entirely consistent; MS' have not. MS, as with essentially the entire group, went from positive for way too long, to negative too late, and now has some redemption potential by getting back to constructive/positive on the group before the stocks light it up -- likely to be followed, belatedlly, if past is prologue, in getting back to positive, by the "brilliant" pack of dunces following this sector. That is the "legitimate" observation of my views on the nalayst group and MS turning back to positive early and in time -- and obviously ahead of the group.
doug, I don't care if you don't like my comments -- put me on ignore if you want... but when you repeatedly try to dis me and now extend that to try to tell me what to write or not, if i see it and have time, you are likely to get a reply discussing what I really think of that entitlement as done here.
re the 2014 PT comment above, to be clear, that was the published level and generally about the f12m target in early August. That may prove to be a good estimate of where things get to assuming china's conversion continues well and the sky does not collapse on their economy...
MPEL is easily the best positioned company over the next two years in terms of transformational footprint/ebitda change coming as a company in total... Moody's C+ students don;t get it... but Moran's analyst group has come away from the darkness now. LOL
as a group even after MPEL's Ho said VIP would not be back to positive growth until 2H15, and that mass GR growth would be more like half the 30%+ rate seen ytd following the third Q. Still 2/3s of them retained their buys, and only then did the consensus target for 2014 drop to below $50 ($49 then).
Then too, they were, as a group, entirely wrong-headed on saying that "Vegas resurgence" made all the Vegas names a far better place to make a bet on gaming stocks. We made fun of that too...and following the big drop off in august (-12% tables games yoy and now negative for the year despite the big head fake bump in may and June), we see that Vegas is back to blue hair bus tours and flat slots/neg table games growth.
There is the history... the "analysts" have generally sukkked on turning points. What is not discussed is that Bain has remained steadfast in his enthusiasm and while he has been too optimistic near term, we give him credit for having some balls and conviction. As for the Morgan Stanley group? Hat is off top them for their comments last Friday and detailed first call report update today -- nothing has changed at all about Macau influencing our view except for Jinping leaving without damaging the macau franchises further and the new regime making it clear they are going to move with authority to get things done as seen on LVS' approvals granted within a week of being seated, and closer now to SC and Manila openings!
But today Morgan Stanley has drawn a line in the sand that sentiment is too negative, things are soon going to be far more constructive as to sentiment, and the new projects coming on line will be a powerful catalyst toward Macau GR growth restoration. Time to buy they say... we agree, even if the light volume selling continues for another day or lucky 13... but anyone selling down here on "december weakness" (conflated with market events) you have posted on many times is not paying attention.
Not sure what you sound like on this alias other than someone either wetting his pants because he is long -- or really short and trying to be coy while just sounding insecure at every post... but it is one or the other of late.
Getting past the bs of your comment, here is a recap of what I think and have said about the analysts following this group for years -- i.e., other than David Bain whose reports you have shared here over time.
Excluding Bain, the analysts on the gaming stocks have almost entirely entirely missed every important turn in group direction... for YEARS!
As we've noted on LVS, WYNN, MPEL and MGM boards over the last 5+ years, this analyst group missed the collapse in 2008/09 (e.g., having uniform BUYS on MGM at $98), they missed the turn on MGM at $2 back to the teens before returning to $9 and then back to the high teens before getting bullish. They missed the Macau stocks rallying from the lows in early 2009 (e.g., double plus on MPEL). Then they missed the strong rally from 2010 through summer 2011 (to 16+ on MPEL and $70 on LVS), and again in 2012, and they completely missed that late Fall of 2012 was a GREAT time to load heavily on all of these names. They also missed the pullback from $25 to $21 on MPEL in July 2013 being another great time to add, and they were not nearly bullish enough on the group as it more than doubled through january of 2014 - remember? Right when I suggested, at $43 on MPEL and above $80 on LVS, that some might want to consider selling and or hedging some of the easy money gains that had already been made?
A month later many issued "big concerns" after january 2012 GGR was soft (7% GGR growth after teens in the preceding several months as all the new product came on to Cotai) just in time for February's 40% GGR growth number and sending the stocks back to the january highs and renewed/reupped PTs to a consensus of $58 for 2014.
They also missed the March double top, and didn't pull "buys" ratings con
Studio City is going to soon be the premier showcase place of an entertainment themed property on Macau... almost a joke that Moody's has the debt structure under review -- as if MPEL and its partner are not going to bring the project to fruition and positive cash flow in a hurry once opened. For that to happen, one must expect Macau to go up in flames first, unlikely given that unlike Vegas, 80% of VIP remains intact and overall GGR is still running at solid levels and may soon begin to show signs of progress as MS suggests.
If VIP and so GGR remain subdued in Macau, Moody's will soon place all of the Macau names ratings under review and, based on both COD and Studio City's lack of reliance on VIP, MPEL arguably fare better on ebitda than any other company there. Your favorite Macau name, LVS, has more to lose than any other company in Macau unless the stocks begin discounting GGR turning around quickly as Morgan Stanley is now suggesting...
Separate from the SC debt funding structure (which Moody's has blessed twice prior), MPEL was singled out this morning by Morgan Stanley on the Studio City and Manila catalysts to the upside on ebitda... and while MS gives a tip of the hat to WYNN's Palace coming on line in 2016, they might have noted that MPEL's iconic Tower 5 at COD is going up now and will be opened in early 2017 -- that Tower will be 100% about premium mass -- no VIP cage rooms.
Get a copy of the Morgan Stanley report from this morning's first call piece... seems MS may be finding their courage and wits and after fielding a few calls from 13F filers (and letting key clients finish covering box shorts). LOL
Interesting to think that after pulling their BUY ratings on Macau stocks in august, they may now be "early" enough calling the turn on Macau names to avoid round 3 of being late and drunk to the party.
Conflating broader market events with December GGR results in Macau while the "Linus blanket" clouding the landscape in the form of Xi Jinping's visit is right up there with reading last month's newspaper...
As noted prior a retest of the July 2013 low is still possible given the global "trickiness" prior to the start of earnings season, but increasingly unlikely as even the analysts and Shuli are now beginning to talk about the worm turning in Macau.
3 pages in between that intro and concluding with MPEL comments:
"We upgrade MPEL to OW: Our call is driven mainly by attractive valuation and supply increase (Philippines in December 2014 and Studio City in September 2015). MPEL could also raise its dividend if overseas opportunities such as Japan are delayed and the restricted cash becomes available.
We expect interest expense to decline over the medium term if it refinances existing borrowings.
Wynn Macau could see the worst 4Q EBITDA decline (-27% QoQ) among peers, but we expect recovery in 2015, driven by refreshed product and more tables before Chinese New Year 2015. We expect the company to show a significant increase in table/room in 1H16 from Wynn Palace, which could be the best product in Macau."
WRT the last comment on WYNN, they meant toss up between the Palace and coming tower 5 at MPEL's COD. LOL
Seems their research director has fielded a few calls from the 13F crowd. LOL
January 6, 2015
Macau stocks underperformed the Hang Seng Index by 41% in 2014, for various reasons including rich valuations, liquidity crunch driving VIP volume down, the anti-corruption campaign in China, tightened transit visas driving premium mass/VIP gamblers out, and lower proportion of premium mass customers. But the greatest impact, in our view, has come from China directly pushing for non-gaming expansion and searching for money-laundering sources.
However, we believe that valuation has finally turned attractive. On top of that, we expect sequential improvement in GGR, driven by a lower base and the opening of Galaxy Macau Phase 2, and Studio City to result in positive industry growth. Wynn Macau and SJM Holdings also plan to add 40 and 10 new tables, respectively, in 2015.
We expect rate cuts and an improving Chinese property market to support VIP business, partly offset by higher scrutiny of agents/junkets.
In terms of risks, we expect 4Q14 to register another 11% QoQ decline in EBITDA, but this may already be well understood. In the medium term, we see risk of margin erosion from higher labor costs and potentially higher reinvestments in the premium mass segment. Dividend cuts are possible too, but yield remains attractive.
We see three key reasons why the stocks
China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth
Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Traffic moves under elevated roads at night in Shanghai, China. The Economic Observer... Read More
China is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year as policy makers seek to shore up growth that’s in danger of slipping below 7 percent.
Premier Li Keqiang’s government approved the projects as part of a broader 400-venture, 10 trillion yuan plan to run from late 2014 through 2016, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as the decision wasn’t public. The National Development and Reform Commission, which will oversee the projects, didn’t respond to a faxed request for comment.
The move illustrates concern among officials that China’s planned shift to a domestic-consumption driven economy has yet to produce enough growth momentum. The yuan rose, halting a two-day decline, and Australia’s dollar -- a proxy for China due to its shipments of iron ore and other commodities used in construction -- climbed after the news.
“It’s part of China’s efforts to stabilize growth, and the news will help to boost market confidence,” said Julia Wang, a Hong Kong-based economist with HSBC Holdings Plc. “Infrastructure investment will continue to be a major driver for China’s economic growth.”
The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) pared a loss of as much as 1.4 percent to close little changed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.7 percent.
The approvals contrast with past moves to boost growth via infrastructure in which the government gave the green-light to projects individ....
Interesting article in "The Economist" last month talking about Zhou, the corruption crackdown and its roots in politics... note that in this very legit journalism venue there is not a mention of Macau gaming being anything close to the objective of the "tigers and flies" and Fox Hunt"...in fact, there is no mention of Macau and this piece echoes the recent Barron's article (J Capital Research/consulting firm) that explained the "corruption crackdown" is [rather] all about quashing dissension or anything critical of Xu Jinping [including his family welath as discussed elsewhere] and punishing Jinping's political enemies. Read on...
Tiger in the net
Zhou Yongkang may well have been corrupt. His real problem was losing a power struggle
Dec 2014 | From the print edition
HE HAS always looked a rather nasty piece of work, and China’s press now tells us just how nasty. Zhou Yongkang is a thief, a bully, a philanderer and a traitor who disclosed state secrets. The spider at the centre of a web of corrupt patronage, he enriched himself, his family, his many mistresses and his cronies at vast cost to the government. Many Chinese reading the reports of his arrest released early on December 6th must have felt delighted that at last his comeuppance had arrived. But many must also have asked themselves how such a thoroughly bad egg came so close to the pinnacle of political power in China. And some may have wondered why, in its 93-year history, the Chinese Communist Party had promoted so many villains to its upper ranks.
Mr Zhou was for five years the party’s most senior official responsible for the pervasive internal-security apparatus. He is the most senior Chinese politician to face criminal charges since the “Gang of Four” of Chairman Mao’s close associates was arrested in....
Goog title for full article
Now a whopping total of ~90k ADS shares down a little over 3%... makes one feel bad for the poor little retail investor in china who can't own stocks listed in the U.S., doesn't it.... particularly since Morgan Stanley just flagged MPEL as the best catalyst story in Macau/Philippines and suggested it is time for the Macau stocks to rally hard, beginning this month, and the HK listed shares of the companies that do have volume trading there (not 68% controlled by the co-Chairmen) are up 2-3% there this morning.
Meanwhile, whomever is buying the shares being tossed out the window there today obviously understands what is happening... no, MPEL is not going out of business or being forced to delist -- it is doing so because it is uneconomic and too confining (buybacks) to stay on the HK exchange when all but 5% of the stock or so is institutionally owned by Packer and Ho (who together own some 68+% of outstanding shares now and neither of whom has sold shares since the ipo) and U.S. based money managers.
Hopefully the Company is gobbling up all shares that panicked, ignorant retail shareholders in China are throwing overboard while the uninformed selling lasts... that would be sporting of them.
Just back from dinner and heard Bloomberg Asia dufus reporter they held out as the local expert suggest the delisting is because the stock was down ~40% in macau so HK is not where they want to be,esp since there is far more trading on the NASDAQ. How about that the HK listings for Galaxy and Sands China were down more in 2014, and that the HK subs for WYNN, LVS and MGM all traded like schmeck in 2014 as well? The F head even had a chart showing MPEL relative to the HK exchange for 2014. Holy #$%$ stupid and incredible to think these morons get paid for such blithering... and another fine example of why the CNBC and Bloomberg monitors are muted on every trading floor on the street unless someone like Bill Gross,, Lazlo Biryni or Lee Cooperman is commenting on markets for a minute... but at least one "journalist" copied directly some of what I wrote here this morning. LOL
Not even the idiot bashers and remaining short putzes here are stupid enough to suggest anything that lame -- notice only dthe98 and blacknite dip#$%$ tried to spin this news negatively but had nothing to say as always? And check out that Shuli Renn/Barron's reporting tonight... could it be the Moron Stankey and soon even McKnight, Karen (Somting) Wong and the other dopey analysts are part of the early turning of the worm for the Macau names? Remember these idiots all had buys on until Ho reset mass and VIP expectations in early August and have been roundly negative on the Macau names right up through this new perspective from MS...
Hey casino and paulchronis... thanks for the nice comments. Good to some here can still process information after months of stupidity here from the "little girls on aol" including matrixtrade and his Shirley Mason multialias boyfriend blacknite/idiotpumper/mytek/tahoejkfkuimbecile/fkuNYC and the other 5-6 aliases that I forget. The funniest part? Clearly the other short putzes' bosses have already covered and moved on while these idiots blaze on. ROTFL
bump for those who missed this VERY important development... file this under "gifts" from Xi Jinping and the new regime/finance minister he just installed in Macau... right along with the new 24 bridge, clarity that they are after "illicit transfers of money and those who have defrauded China, easing real estate restrictions to support vlauations, cutting bank lending rates and promoting credit extensions. and praising Macau's civility and compliance vs HK and Taiwan "problem childs" of late...
Next "gift" up may be the new regime clarifying that they are not going to constrain new tables to 3% ave/year (150 or so) out to 2020... at that allocation rate, Galaxy, MPEL, and LVS alone would need them all now, leaving none for WYNN or anyone else. Thankfully for MPEL (entertainment showplaces of HODW, Studio City, significantly expanded retail and dining,etc), WYNN (the darling lake coming for all Cotai visitors to enjoy) and LVS (MCE facilities, retail, dining, and the coming mall) shareholders, these companies have made major commitments to "diversify" away from only gaming as the emphasis... the rest of the "elephants in tutus posing as ballerinas will have to do some shifting in the entertainment/tourism direction to win favor of those granting tables for the casino operations they want .
Regarding avoidance of the "administrative and regulatory burdens" delisting from the Hong Kong exchange will provide, the redundancy of filing all press releases, periodic reports (NASDAQ AND HK requirements have several differences), and accounting/legal reviews, etc, a key differential is that for HK Listings, no more than 75% of the listing company's ownership can be beneficially owned by control parties (here, Packer and Ho's beneficial is presently around 68%). The current buyback authorization at ~$25 per share would take that up to close to 70%, meaning that the future rounds of share repurchase capacity would be limited to around 7-8% of outstanding shares as the Packer and Ho (shares owned personally and in their controlled separate companies) combined ownership approaches that 75% limit.
The NASDAQ listing requirements are FAR more lenient in this regard, esp after initial listing hurdles. In the case of common stock, the operative limits are that the "publicly held shares" (i.e., apart from the total of direct and indirect beneficial ownership of officers and/or directors and any others owning more than 10% are not consider to be "public shares") must exceed 500,000 shares -- MPEL has ~543m ADS equiv shares o/s after the Dec Q buybacks. NASDAQ also requires public share total capitalization to be at least $1m and trailing ave share price to exceed $1/share.
Again, the NASDAQ rules on "public float"/ownership are very lax vs the HK exchange's requirement that 25% of o/s shares must be in "public" hands apart from control entities as defined.
MPEL repurchased roughly 3% of outstanding shares over the last 4 months with a w ave cost of ~$25/share. The 13F filers (US money managers owning some 24% of the company on NASDAQ) and another 4-5% of so of exempt money mgrs) who have also added significantly of late obviously think the stock is going higher -- and MPEL is thinking ahead as to greater flexibility on buybacks,esp if Japan is delayed further.
The "sneak preview under the "soft opening" that has been esentially limited to locals through the end of December is now on to the next phase of the rollout.
Nobu (Japanese themed) is the only one of the three hotels taking international reservation so far, and rack rates are good only out until end of january... presumably they intend to change them as the rest of the casino/tables are ready to come up on the "Grand Opening" planned for prior to the Chinese New year Celebrations in February.
Several threads have opened sharing confusion here, yet the rationale for delisting from HK exchange is simple: 99.99% of trading in MPEL shares take place as ADS trading on the NASDAQ exchange for years, and the HK listing gives the company zero benefit as well as imposing admn costs/burdens (e.g., reporting daily buyback and cancellation notices) they want to eliminate.
My comments from another thread redux:
"MPEL announced today they are going to delist the shares from the HK exchange because there is no meaningful activity and they want to save the admn costs of the dual listing. Good idea...
WRT my comment above from 9 days ago:
"As noted many times here, unlike the HK shares for the other U.S. listed gaming companies, the MPEL listed shares essentially do not trade any volume there in no small part because Lawrence Ho and Packer (co-chairmen of MPEL) control 68% of the shares through their separately owned companies -- and essentially all the remaining float is institutionally owned and traded as ADS shares here. This dynamic is manifested in typical daily volume of the ADS equivalent of less than 15,000 shares..."
Today's press release announcing they want SH approval to delist from the HK exch (a slam dunk prima facie but especially given Packer and Ho control 68% of the stock) makes it obvious they think the HK listing/activity is worthless to trading velocity/cap markets visibility. Again, through their separately owned investment companies Packer and Lawrence Ho each own roughly 1/3 (together 68%) of the company and, excluding maybe around 5-6% retail holding here via the ADS listed shares on the NASDAQ, the rest of the shares are owned by professional money managers trading the ADS here in the U.S. market. Glad to see the two billionaires controlling this company act to enhance sh value to get this done."
to clarify on the table allocations sought (meant 100% above), in addition to virtually all existing Cotai properties requesting additional tables, there is a total of 8 new properties coming on line f30months, with Galaxy MPEL (SC phase 1) and WYNN (Palace) all asking for upwards of 400-550 tables apiece in those new facilities. In total for Cotai, some 4000+ new tables are sought for the new properties coming on line... throw in a few more for each existing property and it is obvious that adding an average of 150 or so tables a year between now and 2020 is not "fair and rasonable" vs assurances given at the time of capital commitment to building another $25B of "fully Integrated Gaming and Leisure Resorts" on Cotai. Again, those counts do not include restoration of desired table counts on the Penninsular (where tables have been shifted from to Cotai) or any add-ons for phase two projects (Studio City in that queue) or other unknown allocations in queue (such as Tam's wharf grant of 75 tables last Fall).
You are sounding more short by the day... gee, if the stock went down Friday because after reporting that Dec VIP GR was really soft, a well known outcome repeated for the 78th time by Bloomberg and Barron's Friday, maybe the remaining naysayers should all jump out the window head first... the good samaritan in us would hope you all land sure it is the first floor so you guys don't hurt yourselves right before everyone gets back from vacation next week.
Golly, where is the myopic press on discussing that 80% or so of peak VIP play is still happening, even in the run up to Xi Jinping's visist last month? Or how about that 95% of MPEL's ebitda was from mass gaming last Q, so the brunt of the VIP compression is continuing to be a bigger risk to the likes of Galaxy, MGM and WYNN than MPEL or LVS... dislocations eventually resolve to those doing the work and seeing past the negative spin meisters.
To your comment above, likely more than a few paniky retail holders bailed out Friday taking gains in the new year and afraid of another drop... yet the actions of the 13F filers and others exempt from filing (buying last Q and up through year end) we know would suggest all of the bad news and another 20% is "priced in" down here... geepers Wally, who is on the buy side of this dislocation besides Packer and Ho? LOL
And did you guys see that Sputnik (official Russian paper) suggests Xi Jinping's corruption crackdown in beijing has netted some 18,000+ corrupt political foes of the Jinping regime? Not sure if that figure is accurate, or out of the 75,000 reviewed so far which Beijing shared had "ruined the political careers of some 760 officials", but the Russian number is a big one focused on those officials involved in "private clubs" and "shady deals" involving public officials and their cronies stealing from China via fraud... none of that has anything to do with Macau per se, even though the naysayers here continue to say it does.