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Tempur Sealy International Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 240 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 12:46 PM Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 10, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    Lee is a legend to be sure. No file on that but will add to study list. We have pulled out some of our files to be ready when the oil complex cliff drop ends, but the world of small oil/gas players is going to get messy if this lasts much longer... the real winners will be the players with capital to take out the hurting little guys with quality leases but too much debt in the refresh drilling areas.

    As for the gaming sector, as noted here we pulled the WYNN (short) hedge -- a couple days early it is now apparent -- but good to see MPEL finally making a statement and getting out the checkbook down here. Today put on a new hedge (MGM) which has held up too well relative to the Macau group on the prayer that MICE biz is really special in Vegas and the dead albatross note (LOL). Some here know we just took off all of the airlines and several other serious positions as too frothy now unless oil is down forever. Rough bet... kinda like saying Macau GGR will never grow again. As for that airline parallel, you know we said about MPEL in january and again in March this year at $43 on the way up to both tops, the "easy money has been made" and when those who own a sector cheap are stepping off and/or hedging gains (as most here then except the "mean little girl on AOL" (LOL), it is time to consider that only the momentum guys are still in the chase higher on the airlines, though that sector has a few analysts (that are actually excellent as contrasted with the gaming bunch) revising their PT and EPS targets to MUCH higher this week, such updates predicated on oil remaining hammered next year. That said, the airlines may well run longer, right up until oil turns around whereupon a rush for the exit on airlines seems increasingly so the likely end game.

    Lots of other sectors coming in hard now too as those with incentives to protect (most funds do not) are locking down the year early. We are back to only 60% net long but ready to pounce (Xi's wave on Monday?)

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 10, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    At present levels, MPEL has another 17,000,000 or so ADS equivalent shares to go before announcing a new authorization. Assuming they get the 17m done while the stock is trading at distressed levels, Packer and Ho's companies together will then own 70% of MPEL... based on their buybacks since $27, it seems they don;t think Macau is down for the count just yet.

    Exciting times on virtually all sectors for those trading the volatility. As MPEL is standing on the retest low, WYNN and LVS are catching up on the big drop of late; both are now down over 40% from the 2014 highs.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 10, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    The billionaires running MPEL (Packer and Ho's separate companies own 67% of MPEL so the ownership pickup from buybacks benefits them more than any other holders) directed another day of share repurchases activity yesterday (just less than 230k shares at $24 w wave cost), making it four days in a row less than a week prior to Xi Jinping's visit to Macau on Monday. That brings the buybacks to 2,069,522 over the last 4 days...

    Meanwhile, the rest of the group is playing catch up with MPEL's drop (shades of the 2012 drop right before more than doubling in 2013). Unless the sky is going to fall on China and Macau and while all the sellside analysts squirm about December's activity as the Unbrella/Pizza riots whimper into the sunset and the likelihood that Dec GGR in macau will look alot like November pending Xi's updated speech about Macau and surrounds next week, this is setting up for what should be a brighter year ahead for MPEL.

  • Goog title for article, but the Pizza Riot is over today...

    Hong Kong’s tent city is getting dismantled, as pro-democracy protesters packed bags on the last day of their street occupation...with police pledging to clear the streets around the city’s government offices tomorrow...

    The clearance tomorrow will end 11 weeks of student-led protests, with China refusing to budge on its decision to control the nomination process for the city’s first leadership election in 2017...

    Police yesterday warned that they will take “resolute action” against anyone who interferes with the removal of blockades tomorrow, and Chief Secretary Carrie Lam, the city’s No. 2 official, today urged the students to clear out voluntarily over the next 20 hours.

    “We will not resist tomorrow,” said Vincent Man, 26, who works in customer service. “It’s meaningless to get arrested. You won’t draw much attention, nobody will care now. It will just become a piece of news.”

    Hong Kong will shut government offices tomorrow while the clearing takes place, and Lam cautioned student leaders against increasing their numbers at the Admiralty site...

    Talks have failed with Leung and Lam both saying that what the students want -- open nominations for 2017 chief executive candidates -- is against the Basic Law, the city’s de facto constitution.

    “The government is not responding to any of our requests, so it will be meaningless to stay,” said Andrew Sin, 33, a volunteer helping with supplies. “The movement has been going on for two months; its very difficult to ask people to stay. But at least we’ve made a record.”

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 9, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    Lazlo Birinyi, arguably the world's foremost market quants and technical analysts, had this to say about the markets: "the stock market operates as a closed system with all investors playing a zero-sum game: one group of investors supply the stock to fulfill demand from another group of investors."

    So here we have geniuses like "the little girl on AOL" talking about $21/share (after calling for $75/share in 2014 in January and trying to dis me for calling the top aft $43 back then allthe while knowing nothing about street terms and hedging) and Jane Tate telling us how "happy" she is to be short while knowing nothing about MPEL's disclosure filings... and just over the last three days we have the two young BILLIONAIRES who with their separate companies together own 67% of MPEL and arguably know more about gaming, china and macau than anyone else in the business, aggressively buying in MPEL shares...

    Rhetorical: (1) Are there any thoughtful inferences to be drawn less than a week ahead of Xi's visit? (2) Isn't it fun filtering the signal out of the noise of clueless analysts, lame journalists and incredibly stupid posters here?

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 9, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    I looked right in a magic crystal ball where people are gathering to chant about how "happy they are to be short MPEL."

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 9, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    coincidentally, up 35% would take this now value stock back to the 40w ema, whereupon it would become a "chart buy" for all of the "genius" advisory services.

    Those with some sport and capital might want to do as the !#F filers did last Q with their capital... As note prior, 11 of the largest 15 and 21 of the largest 25 holders at the last filing date either initiated or added to their positions between $27 and $36.

    Those concerned about further downside might want to review prior threads re hedging one's downside exposure... but today's little double bottom retest appears to have run into the buzzsaw of MPEL's share buyback plan.

    Love "Jane Tate's" (another one of Shirley Mason's special "friends"?) post today... "happy [Sybil says] to finally be short"... Shirley's boss, a little fella from Cambodia?, should have shorted WFM a month ago (up 35% since) or even little old BABA this morning -- she could have caught the bottom in those too. With varying timelines, that is what a head and shoulders pattern fail looks like when it resolves to the upside after testing key support levels. Again, have a look at a good log chart comparing MPEL WYNN and WFM... better yet, index the values to MPEL as the baseline. ROTFL

  • goog the tilte to see the article I referenced yesterday... yhoo lopped off half of the excerpts...

    good to see MPEL buying meaningful shares during eaxch of the last three days, on top of the 1m shares they bought in sep around $27... apparently they don;t agree with the analysts nbo buysiders even bother to read, let alone Shuli and Jim detar... and certainly not the idoits posting up mounds of stupidity here.

    Did I mention that after everyone except committed 13F filers threw in the towel on WFM the stock rallied 35% over the last month or so?

    what is Xi Jinping going to do for Macau other than wave his hand that Macao is a fun destination for everyone except those committing fraud against China? We'll find out Monday when he flies into Macau for the celebration of the Portugal handover... and for those with a historical perspective on Xi's last visit, it seems likely he'll be pleased with the progress since his last speech there in 2009... especially the contributions of MPEL, and LVS and WYNN in their existing and new properties under development.

  • MPEL's buyback plan is finally engaging with some serious activity over the last three days.

    Over the last three days they have repurchased the equivalent of 411,600, 627937, and 800,000 ADS shares, for a total of 1,839,537 shares. Yesterday's buying was the cheapest with a blended cost of $24.33.

    Might they have a bit more insight into what happens than does Shuli Renn and the confederacy of "geniuses" unhedged short down here?

    The "retest" of the recent low referenced here a few times is front row again today. With Xi Jinping coming on Monday (what if anything will be in the gift basket/wave of his hand?), a week ahead of the new Macau leadership being officially sworn in, will this group and stock begin a sharp reversal sometime soon such as that seen on WFM after its extended selloff many sellsiders suggested it would never rebound from (WFM is up some 35% from the low a month ago), or is the malaise engulfing all Macau names -- and most beta/high growth stocks for that matter -- going to continue past year end pending 2015 catalysts being discounted more than not at all?

    We took off the pair short on WYNN this morning...

  • Reply to

    Year end tax loss selling is coming soon

    by watertii Dec 8, 2014 9:32 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 9, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    Given that Packer and Ho's companies own 67%+ of the stock and that other professional ownership is another 25% or so of ownership, only around 5% of ownership here is in retail hands and that most mutual funds have oct 31 year ends, any serious tax loss selling is already done. Moreover, many hedge funds have offsetting box hedge gains that complicate tax outcomes.

    Might retail holders consider selling their shares as the stock continues meandering along the rocky bottom and perhaps even retests the recent low at $23.50? Anyone who has net taxable gains in an individual account should be consulting with a competent tax advisor, on whatever short term or long term capital gains and losses they have this year. MPEL, as with all of the gaming stocks, is now down from where it was at the start of the year (and certainly where I commented here the "easy money has likely been made this year" and that "at $43, it is a good time to be careful and consider who was selling/hedging gains and the quality of the [momentum] buyers chasing it higher.

    Sentiment is now entirely flipped around though, and Jinping's visit is next week (31 days wash period is a long time from now) , along with glad-handing by the new regime in macau,and both understand Macau's competence/value to China and the buildout of surrounds.

    So will MPEL (and WYNN, another great story) soon climb, perhaps rapidly, out of the malaise gripping most ALL high beta/growth stocks, or will they continue to drag along the rocky bottom well into next year pending a clearer picture emerging for the future of GGR as the 8 new Integrated Resorts come on line? Those who have access to quality chart services might do a comparison of MPEL and WYNN charts on a monthly, 10-year (log) scale, in comparison to what has happened with WFM in the last 30 days. That is another great management& LT growth story... WFM is up over 35% in the last month... might the set up for MPEL/WYNN/LVS be next for sharp reversals?

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 8, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    Opportunities in Hengqin

    Among Macao’s many challenges is the shortage of land.

    The development of the adjacent 106 sq km Hengqin New Area in Zhuhai might offer more space for Macao to embark on new ventures. The University of Macau has been the first to seize the opportunity, building its campus in Hengqin.

    Leong believes Hengqin can attract investment, expertise and human resources from Macao, in the areas of leisure, entertainment, hospitality services and the management of large facilities.

    “The new area has been designated as a model of co-operation and innovation. It is a new platform for the upgrading of industries on this side of the Pearl River Delta,” he added.

    Political reform

    Political reform in Macao is another subject which Leong has spoken about on many occasions.
    Leong calls for the building of a broad consensus in political reform, so that people from all sectors will be represented. “Politics is the art of compromise. In Macao, in particular, I would say unequivocally that compromise is a practical necessity.”

    Leong’s interest in civil affairs was apparent as early as 1997, when he set up the think tank, Research Centre for Sustainable Development Strategies. “I care about the interests of the community. I try to do something, to be someone who can help. So I take up public office, for the people of Macao,” he said.

    fwiw, it seems Macau's new finance minister understands the importance of gaming and ensuring "reasonable and fair" policy mandates to the economic well-being of Macau and surrounds... he should prove to be way more effective than what McKnight called "suitable" -- he should be "excellent" and just what Macau needs to continue developing itself as a premier international leisure and gaming destination for years to come.

  • This guy takes office on December 20 and seems like a quality guy and excellent replacement for exiting Francis Tam.

    Excerpts from the article:
    ... Leong’s business instincts made him look for greener pastures and quickly spotted the need for commercial laundry services for the fast-growing hotel sector. His factory already had an in-house laundry facility, but the switch to a much-expanded operation required a conviction that such a service had growth potential.

    In the beginning of 2009, Leong restructured Smartable Holding Limited, a 280 million pataca modern laundry operation in the industrial park in Coloane, a mere five-minute drive from Cotai, where all the new, big casinos are. The 24 hour round-the-clock facility was initially capable of serving over 20,000 hotel rooms and washing up to 75,000 pieces of uniform daily.

    “People asked me why I made such a heavy bet on an industrial laundry unit. My answer is simple: because there are hotels which need this kind of service. If not, I would not have made such a big investment.”

    Economic diversification

    Having successfully reinvented his business, from manufacturing to services, Leong can speak with conviction on a much-talked-about subject: Macao’s economic diversification. For many years, the community has been discussing ways to expand the city’s economy beyond gaming.

    “When we talk about diversification, we have to consider our pool of talent, capacities, areas of expertise and other advantages. What is our edge?”... Macao’s growth into a boom city has occurred in the blink of an eye. Since it opened its casino market to foreign bidders in the early 2000s, the city has emerged as “a leisure and travel destination for punters and families as well. Macao is also now known for its fine dining, top entertainment, and of course, its casino business,” he said.

    China’s support for Macao is naturally crucial to the city’s success. “First, there is no legal gambling elsewhere in China. Second, Beijing has all

  • Reply to

    Xi Jinping's Visit to macau in 2 weeks

    by squeezetracker Dec 5, 2014 1:29 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 6, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    funny stuff...

    Jinping will likely come and be gone in less than 3 hours, long enough to walk around Cotai to see the new properties underway since his last visit and then make a quick speech about how beautiful Macau is and that everyone should enjoy it as a great international tourism and relaxation venue that is also the world's premier gaming destination.

  • Reply to

    Xi Jinping's Visit to macau in 2 weeks

    by squeezetracker Dec 5, 2014 1:29 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 6, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    MPEL opens COD Manila (phase 1) on Dec 14th assuming the typhoon does no serious damage to that side of the island, and Studio City (phase 1) and its 1100 rooms mid-2015, about a year ahead of WYNN Palace.

  • Reply to

    Xi's Visit to Macao in Two Weeks

    by tpljmpr_50 Dec 6, 2014 12:46 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 6, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    you and your little tryst pal must have both gone to the same jr high school; you are almost as pedantic, but while much funnier, your comments are equally wasted space.

    As for my "endless" posts here? Um okay mr cut and paste specialist... You posted more nonsense today dissing toolboy than I have made here in the last 12 months. LOL

    And as for flip trades? Although yourbestfriend can use even an idiot's help, we don't need your help allocating capital Forest, and while the second one spent a few peanuts, the first and the third were very green if you can read. Print them out and post them on your desk so you can figure it out. And note they were posted as done, not with prior period print. The point being made for anyone with IQ above 90 was that WYNN is way oversold now too, even MGM is now dislocated as to valuation.

  • Reply to

    Xi Jinping's Visit to macau in 2 weeks

    by squeezetracker Dec 5, 2014 1:29 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 6, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    Below the pedantic #$%$ head here makes an idiot out of himself (as he does every post) diverting attention from the Xi visit, a topic of real significance to the macau names... Xi Jinping can and likely will change the group valuation with the gift basket and wave of his hand as discussed on the subject threads.

    Again, prior to that we hope the short putzes will take this down below $160, low enough for more than flip trades for pizza money. As for the deleted posts two not one), that was done to delete this moron's drivel and blithering commentary with another board tool here -- none of which was relevant to the thread.

    As made clear from our comments and time of the subject posts, incidental as it were, we did three flip trades on WYNN this week -- all small and long. Results: a small gain on the first flip, a small loss on the 2nd one (the first flip trade long on WYNN ever in the red), and then this small gain as the shares bounced, right on plan yesterday. Those who ar not idiots can see that when we talk about trades, we do it contemporaneously, not after the fact... same as done here and on MGM and LVS many times.

  • Reply to

    MPEL bought shares yesterday

    by cronjms Dec 5, 2014 1:14 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 5, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    Good to see them make a statement on their view of the current valuation... that optimism is reassuring, particularly in light of pahse 1 of COD Manila's soft opening in 9 days and Studio City (phase 1) opening next summer.

  • A couple of posts on this topic on the MPEL board.

    Good to see WYNN shaking off the putz shorts. Out of 3rd round trip this week up $2.15... special thanks to the tools staying short here. LOL If the algo chumps will take it on down to $160 we'll go large and for longer than a quick flip... unless Steve is going to jail, WYNN is a great bet for the next 6 months... easy to see the stock back above $200 in a hurry once Xi decides enough is enough on the "tigers and flies" corruption campaign in Beijing and Shanghai.

    Also good to see MPEL buying more shares at $25 on top of the recent 1m shares at ~$27... seems they are optimistic about the future these days...COD Manila's (Phase 1) soft opening is in 9 days; Studio City (Phase 1) on Cotai in ~9 months.

  • Lots of quality articles on AP gaiming this week on ggrasia website... but the soft opening date is now set.

    Read the article if you care, but interesting to see Lawrence Ho emphasize this is the "soft opening," before the Grand Opening prior to the Chinese New Year, of "the first phase" of COD Manila. As discussed here early last summer, they and partner Sy, the biggest, wealthiest commercial real estate developer in the Manila and MPEL partner on COD Manila, the second phase will consume much more real estate and will be more of an MPEL signature complex than the four building (rather blah) complex they took over from the stalled developer a few years ago.

    This should be great for MPEL, and good to see that the share data in Macau shows MPEL's share is flattish at 13%, without much clarity that tables reclassified to VIP is actually the fat margin direct credit premium mass. Meanwhile, WYNN is looking weak as VIP ex the MPEL sanitized numbers is only 8% for Nov and we know most of that is VIP margin business. If the trendlines continue another week, the quant values will be about back in sync, meaning back to the set up we saw in 2009 and then again in 2012 for MPEL to outpace the group higher. Been having fun trading small chunks of WYNN, but down a bit more pre Xi visit is a shot to go large -- unless WYNN effd up with Tam or such, long term betting with Steve is a good upside bet.

    Good to see the group coming in to MPEL's hammered numbers... scraping along the bottom is not much fun, but maybe Jinping's visit, along with the telegraphing from his Beijing frontrunner Lei this week, is a nice sign that Beijing is going to hold out MPEL exceptional entertainment with the likes of the water shoe and, within another 8-10 months or so, the cinematically themed PHASE ! of Studio City is EXACTLY the kind of "diversified IR" offering Beijing wants EVERY company to put together for mass tourism/family attractions in addition to world class spas and casinos.

  • Reply to

    a somewhat new theory on VIP decline

    by drjackcar Dec 4, 2014 7:33 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 4, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    Many of China's wealthy have funds throughout the AP region, away from mainland China scrutiny. I read what this guy wrote here several times and get quite get through this:

    "contrary to consensus belief, Macau’s slowdown is not so much driven by anti-corruption as it is by a structural tightening in the liquidity of the high-rollers’ source of wealth"... huh? Every ceo and the execs around them have said the crimp on VIP is principally foxhole mentality out of concern for being seen as too high profile while the 75,000+ politicans and their henchmen buddies have been under review... None of that does not have much to do with structured financing done with real estate conduit trusts and similar, nor does it have anything to do with the high profile defaults of hose jobs shadow banking trusts that have defaulted.

    The fact remains that the vast majority of high rollers touring with the big junkets, and some 80% of peak GGR have kept right on playing in Macau, ostensibly unconcerned that they or any one they have done business with while rising to be amongst the new mint millionaires and billionaires has anything to worry about while Xi's "tigers and flies" corruption reviews wend their way through bank and brokerage statements.

    Does anyone else enjoy the irony of this guy's name with the former head of security in the communist party running China? Zhou (namesake or relative?) is being prosecuted for massive fraud against the Chinese govt, taking Chen, one of the largest industrialists in China, right along with him. Rooftop watch in effect...

    But the "analysis" goes on to say that new openings on macau will increase visitation but maybe not
    GGR? No S? LOL Someone ought to advise him that direct credit players are set up with the house, likely paying off monthly debt via wires from around the AP region where primary bank accounts handle the money (not some imaginary shadow banking credit source from the mainland). Big junket VIP is not in the alley either

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