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Tempur Sealy International Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 66 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 10:03 PM Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Apr 13, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    Goog title for quality article illustrating PAGCOR's open arms vs Macau/Beijing's desire to shoot themselves in the foot for the time being as they cede VIP and premium players to alternate AP venues. MPEL in the A1 slot...

    "As Manila’s Entertainment City spurs growth and regulatory challenges, Pagcor chairman Cristino Naguiat wants all sides to profit
    Friday, 10 April 2015

    Pagcor Chairman and CEO Cristino Naguiat isn’t a man of many words. But he doesn’t need to be. The progress of Pagcor speaks for itself since President Benigno Aquino handpicked Mr Naguiat for the top job in July 2010 [where he] has to balance Pagcor’s diverse roles as gaming regulator, casino operator, government revenue generator and driving force behind Entertainment City, a master-planned district in Manila Bay that’s developing into the largest cluster of integrated resorts between Macau and Las Vegas...

    In February, City of Dreams Manila held its grand opening as the second resort in Entertainment City. The first was Solaire Resort and Casino, a US$1.2 billion project spearheaded by Philippine ports billionaire Enrique Razon Jr, which opened in March 2013 at the 120 hectare (300 acre) district that will also include commercial and residential developments...

    COD Manila brings Macau casino operator Melco Crown Entertainment to the Philippines. Working in partnership with SM Group, controlled by Henry Sy, the Philippines’ richest man, Melco Crown increased its investment in the $1.3 billion project and took over operations after Pagcor reinterpreted its terms of reference for licensees’ projects, basing its allocation of gaming tables and machines on total size of lodging areas as well as number of rooms. That revision increased the resort’s permitted number of tables by 50% to 384 and more than doubled the number of electronic gaming positions...

    Pagcor fought the BIR decision in the courts and pledged to negate the impact on licensees. Last year, it agreed to cut license fees...

  • By Zinnia B. dela Peña (The Philippine Star) | April 13, 2015 - 12:00am

    AP/Julie Jacobson
    MANILA, Philippines - The Philippines is on the cusp of a casino boom with more foreign firms placing their bets on the Southeast Asian nation that has attracted increasing numbers of the wealthy overseas high rollers and big spenders amid China’s crackdown on corruption and slowing economy..."

    Soon it will be clear that there is a $1B+ pot inuring to COD Manila annually in Manila... they have more than 4000 Philippinos on the payroll at COD Manila already, are currently adding another 430 or so based on Phistar reports (and see COD website for large listings still open) and that is before getting VIP operations fully up and racing -- and well before they build out the recently disclosed "expansion phase" there with the Sy family pals going 100mph on commercial development surrounding the property, all as the new "permanent" US Navy base is built out in Manila Bay.

    How much longer will Macau/Beijing cede half of last year's VIP revenues to other venues in the AP, especially as the Foxhunt/Skynet thrashing about winds its way down as the corrupt politicians and political foes of the current regime are dealt away. otp, MPEL generates less than 15% of COD Cotai revs from VIP, and, despite all the bs media coverage, actually joined Galaxy last Q in reporting a serial increase in VIP RCT and win 4Q vs 3rd.

    Meanwhile, LVS is now telling the street thay are actively promoting VIP play in both Macau and Singapore... seems they are tired of ceding away that business, even with its appurtenant low margins and scrutiny. Certainly the crooks and political foes of Xi Jinping are not coming back to Macau, but the worst month since last June still reflects 50% of all time peak RCT... and the new salons at Galaxy, WYNN, LVS and MPEL are just now getting going there, right ahead of the new product coming on stream with Galaxy 2 and MPEL's Studio City.

  • Reply to

    REIT sUnlikely on Macau

    by squeezetracker Mar 19, 2015 3:11 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 13, 2015 8:46 AM Flag

    LVS has a different ownerships structure than does MPEL as some here understand, but see their press release from a few minutes ago.

    Despite the difficulties Macau properties present as discussed prior, LVS has also consistently suggested they believe a structured REIT program will one day pencil for their resort properties and malls. Are they telegraphing they are coming now with a novel structure for Macau? Clearly that is where the majority of their commercial ebitda emanates from, and perhaps they are thinking through MBS as well.

    So maybe they and their lenders do not think the sky has or is falling on Macau? LOL The press release from a few minutes ago discusses how pleased the company is with the vote of confidence their lenders just joined them with on the $1B expansion of their credit arrangements adding "balance sheet strength and flexibility" (to do more capital distributions they write), but they have something more to say beyond noting they will pursue more integrated resort development: "We will continue to execute our plans to [further] enhance our balance sheet strength and financial flexibility.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 11, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    Oakmark's David Herro commented extensively on China's ongoing political winds, corruption crackdown (including reference to former security minister Zhou who is now convicted of fraud and awaiting sentencing -- reportedly he stole some $15B+ in his capacity as a key member of the former regime) in his March 2014 quarter letters to fund investors. Herro and everyone else except for the forbes guy and a couple of hedge funds guys sharing site visit recaps, continues to say nada about COD Manila, however, those actually studying know they had $9m of revenues from Manila during the December Q (when they were only partially soft opened for only the last couple of weeks and they will obviously have more to show and say as they were soft opened through Feb 1 when they did the "grand opening" -- the latter of which still not including the 300 VIP suites in the Crown Hotel property and several of the other attractions there. The entire resort should be up and running within days now...

    As for Herro's outlook for China and MPEL? Steady he goes with his other China investments and wrt his allocation to MPEL, as of 12/31/14, Herro's international fund is the largest holder of MPEL (other than Ho and Packer's beneficial ownership that together comprise over 68% ownership of the shares) as noted prior. He was down some 20% on the position during the March Q... but the recent runup has cut that by a bunch...

    Here's his comment on MPEL:
    "...Casino revenues in Macau were weak due (January thru march 2015) to China's anti-corruption campaign, difficult year-over-year comparisons and a weaker macro environment... we remain optimistic about Macau's long-term prospects, given low penetration of Chinese visitors, continued wealth creation of Chinese citizens and large infrastructure projects, which should help facilitate the growth of Macau."

  • Reply to

    BAC first call update to lower rating

    by squeezetracker Apr 7, 2015 4:16 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 9, 2015 9:36 PM Flag

    LOL

  • Reply to

    Philippines, Tokyo, Barcelona

    by boiler_room_bermuda Apr 8, 2015 10:07 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Apr 8, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    They are focused on Asia and not going to Spain or anywhere else in europe or the overdeveloped US market Jim...

    See the preliminary annual report for some fun reading though. They have morphed from calling macau the world's gaming mecca and primary focus for the company as late as February, to now articulating that developing the Integrated resort franchise throughout Asia as the world's fastest developing market is the objective. As you know, a few of us thought Shelly was nuts for even considering it with LVS (we sold out the shares becauses of it before the big drop, and then piled back in to that name for the run back to $72 (out early) when they called off the gaff of going to Spain. Fully 56% of Spain's citizens under age 25 are unemployed... and they can't all work in casinos like is the case on Macau.

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