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Tempur Sealy International Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 298 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Reply to

    The buyback has begun…finally!

    by knight_rider_1984 Sep 11, 2014 6:09 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 12, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    Looks like a couple of decent blacks traded today as well as yesterday... Maybe we will see the Manila schedule within a a few days now that they have made some serious strides on the $500m buyback ahead of that news.

  • Reply to

    Barrons-- high VIP bookings for golden week

    by cronjms Sep 12, 2014 1:58 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 12, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    That is Shuli's most bullish piece of the last 2 years. LOL

    The analyst's comments she quotes reflect those of one who doesn't understand the business. Given the table shifts, which some of the bigger tours may know has crimped available private/operator floor tables as the companies are following MPEL's lead by moving VIP tables to premium mass and mass floors and also chasing mass/premium mass business generally as the Chinese VIP tours were playing in Vegas last Q (beginning in July, such play was on heavy fade in Vegas as noted prior), it seems apparent they would call the Macau venues to make sure that one house or another can handle them coming in with a big group.

    As for timing, the article makes it quite apparent that neither Shuli Ren nor the subject analyst (Doosh Banc) grip that VIP tours have historically come for the latter part of the Golden Week festivities, that is, after the mass crowds have come and gone for the first several days. Hopefully they have whatever floor mods they wanted to get done at Altira as they reposition that 5 Star hotel for the "big VIP operators"... that would be great for GW VIP play.

    For MPEL, it now seems too tight for them to have COD Manila open for GW as their development partner said was the schedule a few months ago... either that or an announcement is coming any moment now or they already have COD Manila booked for the GW slot without needing to book in a cadre of mass traffic. We'll soon find out.

  • Reply to

    GS upgrade for LVS and WYNN

    by toast22342000 Sep 11, 2014 6:27 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 12, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Regarding WYNN, someone ought to send him the memo on Macau's VIP gaming remaining soft over recent weeks... and also let him in on the little secret that the 30%+ YOY baccurat play put up in Vegas during May and June (the source of the ill-founded belief that Vegas' GGR was somehow in permanent "recovery" mode) came to an abrupt stall in July as the Asian whales passed on flying in with their entourages on Steve's private jets -- leaving only Steve's "Latins" apparently... and back to single digit YOY table play. meanwhile, slot play in Vegas has been running negative and total GGR for the strip is about to go back to negative YTD YOY.

    On second thought, F it... let him twirl his baton...

  • Reply to

    The buyback has begun…finally!

    by knight_rider_1984 Sep 11, 2014 6:09 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 11, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    knightrider -- great post as is your history here...

    As a point of clarification, MPEL may well have been buying in shares prior to this trade, but the size of this piece required disclosure under the HK listing agreement threshold referenced in the filing. We think this broadcast is unfortunate in that it puts otherwise unwitting shorts on notice that the company (including multibillionaires/co-chairmen Ho and Packer's companies owning a total of 67% of outstanding shares) is done letting their shares be stomped on down at these severely mispriced levels. As you allude to, we'd rather they buy in the entire $500m authorization down here prior to disclosing any buybacks, and then disclose the iterative second in what will likely be a series of up to some 8% of outstanding shares under the HK listing rules relevant to their ownership profile.

    We, and our pals focused on this sector, love the message nonetheless... this is more than a heads up for everyone to take notice -- it is a 50 caliber shot fired straight through the forehead of unhedged shorts. MPEL's future will be brilliant; glad to see them assert their confidence prior to the opening of COD Manila as we noted last week that they were likely to do by taking in shares while idiots were willing to sell shares down here.

  • Reply to

    Large option trade?

    by scara7357 Sep 8, 2014 1:54 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 8, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    The Najarians and the "genius" writing press releases for them think it is big news, but it is not... The Najarians should stick to football commentating...

    Today someone bought 4500 contracts at $1.20 apiece, meaning they are betting $540k that the stock rises to at least $32.20 (a 15%+ move) plus commissions for them to break even by Jan expiry. Although the option book has no calendar or other spread trade to show of late, this just isn't that much coin in the pm world... consider that some 6m shares at 28+ will trade today, meaning that pm are comfortable betting roughly $170m that their annual incentives on this stock outperforming the market in EOY. Further, this long position may be a simple hedge offset to a short trade on one of the other U.S-listed companies; none of them is in as enviable a position as is MPEL (% footprint growth; Manila expansion; best in class adj ebitda growth % t30m, and, despite all of that, by far the cheapest valuation on ebitda mulitples (i.e., the most mispriced temporarily) vs the group.

    Given that Chinese whales want to play and the data indicates they have sharply curtailed playing in Vegas of late, don't be surprised if we begin to see some pickup in high stakes table play in macau any week now...

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Sep 5, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    We saw it coming explained why... go back to the march posts not being brought forward to read all about why this has cascaded down the thumping cliff

  • Reply to

    Give it a week to cascade down HARD

    by squeezetracker Mar 6, 2014 5:34 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 5, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    we just covered in at $1.90... I think it has a long way to go down to bkr $0, but we'll wait for the last lunge dead cat bounce to re-short. Sad for those who remember QUIK's stylin' former glory under the original exec team and early days.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 5, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    Hey net_stocker,
    The stock was at $8 when I said the story was effd and would soon be below $5 as serial quarterly disappointments unfolded...

    The stock is Down to below $2 now... regarding your "See you at $10 short term" -- just how long is that "short6 term"? LOL

  • Reply to

    Remember "Billabong" and Members' Only"?

    by squeezetracker Mar 6, 2014 5:53 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 5, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    hello? Where's "net_stocker"? Out at Dana point on his circa 1986 board?

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 5, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    Look back part 5 and the serial Q mess continues yet again

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 5, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    The stock was printing $7.80 when i posted that... how are the cheerleaders dissing my objective analysis doing these days?

    Looks like that russia piece ain;t working out so swell, huh... bkr looming as no sales turnaround is coming with these dead brands.

  • Reply to

    HSBC China Comments on China Economic Data

    by squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 8:31 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    a half hour later ECB announced they were coming with Quant Easing... that will help China with their second largest trading region as they splash about with another big tub full of global liquidity and stimulus ideas contemporaneously with China stomping the pedal of late...

  • Reply to

    HSBC China Comments on China Economic Data

    by squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 8:31 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    My point was that the economy would have been a legit reason for the currently ridiculous valuation of this company in particular, but THAT nor the other items that would have caused structural damage to this niche were and are not happening; in fact, the opposite is happening -- great progress is being made on china's economy as seen in the data this week.

    As for your comment about "lack of certainty", just to color with a different crayon, the sector is being hammered as if Macau's whale players will NEVER come back -- not when being out a while, and, as you point out with respect to MPEL's business plan in particular, a myopic and badly misdirected focus on overall GGR vs MPEL slice at the elite end of the premium mass/mass pies.

    Meanwhile, Ho and the Manila partner have something to prove in Manila... can they be a powerful catalyst for boosting tourism/gaming tax revenue where their predecessors have failed to do so? On that outcome rests their juxtaposition for being at/near the top of the pile once japan's legislation and concessionaire process gets lined up... We also continue to believe the "repositioning" of Altira is going to dazzle once they are ready. MPEL will go from not trying in VIP, back to being one of the most successful hosts of elite VIP when the tours and players come up out of the foxholes they've been ducking into in Vegas. But I repeat myself... LOL

  • Reply to

    HSBC China Comments on China Economic Data

    by squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 8:31 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    we've been talking about "low profile" for macau play, private jets to elsewhere and menacing China's "Golden Goose" for months... and we've also said the stock is grinding along the bottom until there is enough conviction that macau gaming has already rolled over PERMANENMTLY, which is how the stocks are cureently being valued -- but none more inappropriately discounted than is MPEL.

    Macau's stall this year is certainly predicated on a confluence of policy noise (the 13 items) as well as some legit concerns (China's GDP, real estate, Putin's tanks, befuddled handling of the Middle East for years on end now, etc), but one day or week soon, capital will return to this sector... then it will be predicated on the entire group being ridiculously oversold on fundamentals, quant and technicals, with this company in particular presenting an extraordinary upside opportunity relative to downside risk.

  • Reply to

    HSBC China Comments on China Economic Data

    by squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 8:31 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    toast,
    another quality post. You are one of the few posters here consistently doing legit diligence... so you know the "corruption crackdown" is mostly about hanging people who take bribes on poison milk for infants, politicians receiving money under the table, and other deliberate illegal activities largely associated with construction and heavy industry having nothing to do with Macau or junkets, or even money transfers.

    Longtime pm in this niche understand noise items and that the only "serious corruption" that has been associated with Macau over the last three years is the combined total of 16 idiots with unregistered UnionPay card swipe machines and peanut $400k of cash in their trunks, and that China's central gov't wants to make sure that does not happen in the future. Even Tam said that concern is now done (of course, he's looking at trying to stay in his job with the political rhetoric goes on and gaming tax revenues began being visibly crimped last Q.

    As for when the group will meaningfully jump, we think it will take more than headlines saying the "corruption crackdown campaign" (rhetoric vs substantive for Macau activity which has had a quelling/low profiling effect on players/tours) is now over. Despite battering of the stocks (the group is down 30+%), it won't take much to get pm to pull hedges (LOL matrixtrade and his new pen pals mytek/idiotpumper and moronic blacqnite don't understand the terms and try to dis me), but it will likely take commentary from exec teams that the junkets are coming back in force. Some will likely be surprised to see Vegas' purported GGR resurgence slide hard when that happens, but those who understand why the private jet fleets were being deployed to China last Q and into this Q will not.

    The key point is that the sky did not and is not falling on China and, derivatively, China's VIP and premium mass players have not had their wealth or enjoyment of gaming hurt & they will be back to Macau just as day follows day

  • Reply to

    Shuli Ren's latest article

    by toast22342000 Sep 3, 2014 9:54 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    Good posts guys... that is Ren's idea of "balanced" blogging. LOL

    Notice how she has stopped talking about all of the bs noise and now says it is the "political headwind" (note singular) that has caused the VIP swoon and that one day soon some VIP may come back when that "headwind" dies down a bit? Surprised she didn't mention that VIP players may need trips out to unauthorized UnionPay card swipe machines in the parking lot to play more... just to round out how little she knows about the business one more time.

  • Reply to

    HSBC China Comments on China Economic Data

    by squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 8:31 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 4, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    and the ECB/Draghi rate cut signals suggests they are ready for additional measures ("monetary easing") to use the ECB's balance sheet in get after boosting liquidity like Uncle Ben did here to facilitate growth.

  • Wait... you mean the sky is NOT falling and the central planners policy initiatives to focus on more service sector growth/consumerism vs being too reliant on manufacturing/export are beginning to show up in data now after july's numbers being the worst in a long time? And just maybe more stimulus is coming from that big fat war chest balance of trade?

    Service sector activity rises solidly, while manufacturing output growth slows
    Summary
    HSBC China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both
    manufacturing and services) signalled a fourth successive
    monthly increase of Chinese business activity during
    August. The HSBC Composite Output Index posted at 52.8,
    up from 51.6 in July, and signalled a robust rise in activity
    levels. Furthermore, it was the strongest expansion of
    business activity in 17 months.
    The improvement in the headline index largely reflected the
    growth recovery recorded in the service sector, as
    production growth slowed at manufacturing firms. Service
    sector business activity expanded at the fastest rate since
    March 2013, and contrasted with a stagnation of activity in
    the previous month. This was signalled by the HSBC China
    Services Business Activity Index posting at 54.1, up from
    the record low of 50.0 in July.
    Activity growth was supported by further expansions of new
    business at both manufacturers and service providers in
    August. That said, the rate of new order growth at
    manufacturers eased to a three-month low. Meanwhile,
    service sector firms recorded a solid expansion of new
    business that was the strongest since January 2013. At the
    composite level, new work rose at a moderate pace that
    was slightly faster than in July.

  • Reply to

    Hey Packer and Ho!

    by squeezetracker Sep 2, 2014 10:32 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 2, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    10 thumbs down? That is a LOT of cork soaking for just one comedic editorial! LOL

    I can't wait until yhoo enables the IDs on recommendations.... should be any day now. ROFLOL

  • Reply to

    Hey Packer and Ho!

    by squeezetracker Sep 2, 2014 10:32 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Sep 2, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    "watch the algo programs all scramble to cover in by the close"... LOL

    Up over a buck from the washout low today. Not saying it can't go lower, it certainly can in this dog S sentiment environment for Macau names, but given that MPEL's business plan will drive the best YOY gains in adj ebitda (whether or not VIP in Macau gets back on a positive growth curve ANYTIME over the next three years) as the % increase in footprint for MPEL is dramatic on macau over that timeline, we were happy to add to this down here. The other Macau names are not so nicely situated, and none of them have manila coming online as MPEL does. It will be good to have them done with capex for the initial phases of Studio City and Manila and have up and running annualized adj ebitda of $750m or so combined for these two properties once they are up the rollout curve.

    Seems we are not the only ones figuring out that others are going to be hurt more than MPEL if Macau continues to grind along the murky bottom for a bit. Of the four US listed companies, WYNN and MGM's Macau books are bearing the brunt of the VIP crimp, and LVS' business is a layer down from the cream anyway, but still has big $ on VIP (not in % terms). On the hold/VIP notes being discussed by exec mgmt teams in macau with the analysts and buyside research staff, some here may recall that the other three companies had overline fat holds on VIP and mass at most properties last Q, but MPEL had crimped holds in comparison and vs expected... adj for that, MPEL's mass book was by far the best of the bunch, a trend likely to continue as seen over the last couple of years.

    Another piece is that LVS'MBS may see some benefit as macau drives low profiling from wealthy players and tour operators. COD Manila's launch should benefit as well in a month or two?

    Hopefully the shorts are enjoying themselves. Glad to see the sky fell in and then everyone realized it was not the sky, merely heavy fog the buyers today can see past.

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