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Tempur Sealy International Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 295 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    Jim,
    You are welcome. Did you see the "table permit" question and Ho's lucid answer to that below? Ho has made it clear he thinks they are all set, about like Steve Wynn has done with the new WYNN property, except without the bravado Steve shared on the table topic.

    As we have said for years, MPEL (Ho) and WYNN (Steve) are smooth and good at getting what they need... other companies seem to have trouble getting their permits prior to doing work (LVS) and or trouble getting construction crews going timely enough to gain any comfort with completion dates, projecting the latter onto others (MGM's Murren commentary last call) . Not so with Lawrence and Steve - both have said their programs are on budget and on time AND, whether detractors like it or not, both Lawrence and Steve have said they are "highly confident" they will get the tables they need to complete their new IR showcase resorts on Cotai.

    Have I mentioned that the definition of "Integrated Resort" includes gaming and casinos facilities? LOL

  • Reply to

    Altria "Repositioning"

    by squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:42 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    Now that the transcript is available, i'll suggest longs ought to consider doing themselves the favor of reading the transcript -- the parts about Ho's view of what has happened to near term growth and what he sees for next year as the infrastructure projects and new properties are opened [and repositioned] is fun reading.

  • squeezetracker by squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Altria, MPEL's other 5 Star rated property on Macau, continued to have tables sent over to booming COD on the cotai strip and put up disappointing numbers for the Q, but Ho's comments on Altria were illuminating. From the scripted commentary on the Q call:

    "Turning to Altria. In addition to the companywide table optimization process, we are also repositioning Altira to focus more exclusively on larger junkets, who are better positioned to complete in this evolving market. We believe that Altria remains one of the most luxurious hotel and VIP gaming properties in Macau, and we anticipate these changes to the property's positioning will ensure it can compete strongly in this segment of the market."

    COD manila opening in 3 months is great news... but in less than 12 months forward, MPEL will have the initial phase of Studio City opened, all of the enhancements at COD Cotai done (excl Tower 5 scheduled for 2017 completion) and and have Altria transformed from the "luxury penninsular property" to the ultra deluxe venue focused "more exclusively on larger junkets." Starts to look like everything they do is part of a grand plan... "shaping the future of Asian gaming," doesn't it...

  • Reply to

    the MPEL part

    by drjackcar Aug 15, 2014 8:50 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    Jim,
    I just posted Ho's comments on Studio City from the earnings call last week. His comments on the permits and tables are lucid.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 15, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    Tang, DB Analyst
    "One of the key permit would be the number of table quota, can you remind us at what stage before opening should we be expecting that number?

    Yau Lung Ho - Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
    Karen, I think, on that front the Macau Government is still thinking about their strategy and also talking to the leadership in China about the quota. But based on what they have guided all these years with the table cap, I think they will allocate the tables accordingly to the diversity -- the diversification and neatness of the property. We still -- we're very confident that we'll get our fair share of those tables. But the Macau Government have not communicated with us or the properties that are opening next year. I anticipate and again, this is a best guess, that we'll probably find out, probably 9 months ahead of time. But at this point in time, we still have the property -- our property. Studio City can accommodate a capacity of 500 tables. Are we going to get 500 tables? We, honestly, don't know. But I think from a fair share standpoint, and I think we will all going to pull above our weight on the fair share, we've always guided that we hope to get 400 tables or more."

    It is subtle, but here Ho is making it clear that the govt has not officially entitled ANY operators on the table allocations; he is also making it plain as day that Studio City is EXACTLY the kind of proud showcase of being more than just a big casino can be when a developer goes out of its way to address the desires of the macau and Central Chinese govt officials to have Macau become more than just a series of large gaming facilities. Everyone knows that gaming is the big draw, but the companies likely to get big table allocations, at least as Ho lays out here, is going to be all about meeting govt requirement that ENTERTAINMENT venues be an integral par of all new IR complexes on Macau. Love Ho's understated "confidence" here... the "Asian Way."

  • MGM and LVS' recent news on fumbling with construction delays and lacking timely permits is in stark contrast to Ho, the favored one, and MPEL's handling and execution.

    Here's what he said about staying on track timing wise for Studio City:

    "I think luckily for us, we -- and not luckily because we've always acted in the best faith and we follow all the rules from the Macau Government. We've got all of our construction permits. And each step of the way, when we got the foundation permit, that's when we do the foundation work. When we get the upper floor permit, that's when we do it. So we've never really kind of disobeyed or moved away from the rules. And I think, then that's why whether it's from a labor code standpoint or construction progress standpoint, we are firing at full speed. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we have begun setting out both hotels rooms and also in the main gaming and retail areas. So we are -- we're very happy. We're happy with the progress. So in terms of that backlog, it's no secret. There's plenty of development in Macau and the government is very hard -- trying very hard to clear up the backlog, and there's a huge backlog. But for us, thankfully, since we followed every step of the way, we don't need -- we don't have any outstanding permits that we require from a construction standpoint."

    He also made it clear they are now finalizing the gaming floor and entertainment layouts, including his expectations of how many tables they anticipate getting as a key part of the showcase of Macau govt/ MPEL development partnership this "Integrated Resort" (MSC) will be on opening... cont..

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 14, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Seriously now... what F moron would thumbs that learned, helpful and very objective reply? I can't wait until Yahoo starts publishing these dip S ratings. At least they gave readers the umlimited ignore bucket last year. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 14, 2014 7:14 AM Flag

    Crown Resorts is largely a hotel company, not "casino" operator. Packer's company relies on MPEL for earnings and MPEL's dividend for cash flow.

    Search "Crown Resorts" and Cosmopolitan here to learn more about Packer and Crown.

  • Reply to

    it's had a bid all day

    by drjackcar Aug 13, 2014 3:41 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 13, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Lots of quality buysiders added 1Q between $38 and 45.. Many continued adding 2Q in the mid $30s. They aren't playing for up 10% anymore than we are... but, for all its at times sloppy inefficiency, the market is a forward discounting mechanism. Unhedged shorts should soon play the part of the ISIS guys feeling like they are tough guys... while the F18s are fueling just below the flight deck.

  • Reply to

    it's had a bid all day

    by drjackcar Aug 13, 2014 3:41 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 13, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    drjack,
    perspective.... much of what you wrote involves the uncertainty created by the conspriacy to take these stocks down, aided and abetted by ill-concieved political headline grabbing in china while all the economic and other bs headlines slammed the sector. And all of that went on while MPEL had no buyback program launched, and without any of the talking heads and media dolts understanding the dynamics that matter rolling forward.

    Consider that a if MPEL had top of normal hold on its haircut RCV they would have hit estimates -- their $32m number is the midpoint of range... and play that against the skipping record of peers being above the normal range and you get to where one needs to actually understand the business to discern MPEL'sd numbers were not all that bad. Then too, mass ebitda was up 38% at COD -- that was better than any other property there, and up on a tougher comp than any other company in the group. Hello?

    So now Ho explains mass is coming in to 20% for the island and all analysts except Bain have kittens over it while murmuring they are more comfortable longer term but don;t really have a F clue what is happening "al of the sudden"? Here's the news: they have been clueless all along, and now it shows. Ho's wake up call is now, just one week later, the, "ummnn, yeah, as we were saying, we think mass will come in a bit from 35% because that is just too hih." Stupifying...

    As I have noted for a while now, AAPL the airlines and OTAs were sold down on all of the too fast too high too long, yet now they are "suddenly" reversing higher as everyone takes their heads out their hind ends. MPEL and the group should be materially higher shortly; talking heads and others may stand around looking confused and uncertain, quality buysiders are taking in all the shares they can down here. We're adding too. LOL

    The financials are next in queue... group RSIs on these sectors are #$%$ too low given they will outpace on growth barring a big recession

  • Second article in a week demonstrating they are an incompetent, poser "research firm"... hard to believe anyone would pay them to scoop dog S off the pavement in midtown NYC. It is one thing to have an incompetent pseudo journalist write at Barrons or IBD, another still to hold your firm out as a "research firm" and then publish such drivel as they have on MPEL.

    Almost as stupid as the morons using multiple aliases here and suggesting mgmt fraud and that MPEL always trades worst in the group. LOL Someone should direct those two putzes to a peer comp chart for the t1m period between Aug 2012 and March 2014. The next 12 months should also be a hayride for those shorting this stock without hedge offset... Hope they had fun today. LOL

  • Reply to

    August GGR so far

    by drjackcar Aug 12, 2014 7:23 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 12, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    Jim,
    Pretty sure you meant revenues vs earnings... From the Manila piece, they are very unlikely to have GAAP or even adj "earnings" for 4Q. However, as long as they open with Ho's "100% ready", they will have more revenues than the zero the street has modeled. LOL As noted prior, they are now carrying heavy pre-opening costs, incl 3000+ staff training for the open in Manila; accordingly, the revenue contribution will be important to adj ebitda generation 4Q and forward.

    Hey drjack!
    Last time I saw a PT update from Bain he was at $57 (f12m) from his mid Feb update. The Macau reset as told by Ho last week apparently didn't phase Bain much (correction sought if you know)... That $57 target will require a solid performance by MPEL 2H14, including affirmation that the initial phase of the Studio City project will be [Ho's 100%] "ready to open" mid 2015 as they disclosed last week.

  • Reply to

    August GGR so far

    by drjackcar Aug 12, 2014 7:23 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 12, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    Thanks for the share.

    Bain's recap (12.7%) is consistent with MPEL's comments that they think August is back to solid after a slow start in July [which we now know was experienced by all casinos there].

    It is also consistent with the low profile of junket play, with the companies focused on mass (LVS and MPEL) looking relatively stronger YOY.

  • Reply to

    squeeze, questions at hand Part II

    by toast22342000 Aug 11, 2014 7:18 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 12, 2014 8:11 AM Flag

    in my view that is your best post ever and hopefully marks a new, less confrontational toast here. If so, it takes me back to where there are +1 guys posts worth reading here.

    On "predictions", I gave my overarching view on the other thread -- Macau has a decade of growth (adj ebitda, the story is no longer really about GGR or mix of VIP vs mass/direct credit) ahead. MPEL will have a much bigger piece of that pie over the next couple of years as Studio City opens next year (to be followed up by the esoteric expansion phase which preliminarily is scheduled to be up to twice the capex budget), and then iconic Tower 5 at COD Cotai. Better times are ahead for MPEL...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 11, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    You must think I don't understand IKGH business... as with your prior suggestions on various threads that you think we don't understand or model things we discuss, that is very presumptuous of you. I'm not used to being dissed by anyone who understands the business. LOL

    IKGH, reigning in credit and haircut holds/share results, is still doing well in what the media and several analysts have all but called the "end of VIP" in Macau... As i wrote above, it is still more than half of the revenue pie on macau, and a long way from dead.

    A favor to ask though... whereas you have repeatedly challenged the validity, veracity and objective nature of things we choose to share here, please put me on ignore. I'm doing that now for you.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 11, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    toast,
    Rosy? flambouyant? LOL. Try fact based and verifiable, whether you understand it or not. As for expectations too high on GGR for macau and MPEL? Have you read any of my 'reset" and PT discussion posts since the PR hit the wire prior to the CC start? We are now back to a PT of $40 for MPEL by the report of the DecQ timeframe. That is where we were when we raised it to $50 based on the stock chugging past $38 last December, and macau GGR blew the roof off 4Q13. You might recall the stock double topped at $45+ within the next 8 weeks, and with any good news enabling MPEL and the group to stuff reset numbers, all of the group may well get to above recent highs.

    Not sure what the rest of your comments were, but you clearly did not understand mine. Firdst, i made no attempt to dicuss the myriad list of bs media bullets t6m, but that is a big list. Ho made it clear that low profile concerns were the item changing the dynamic. NOT portable swipes, not a collpasing banking system or ultra low cost shopping tours, NOT unenforced table limits or another dozen or so nonsense issues. Political spotlights, hlow spotlight concern and Visa rule confusion? Over and done and so is WC distraction.

    My discussion of the $10m and $5m were items in the Q that were not known or anticipated by guidance or the consensus estimates. Thus, they are relevant to put the "miss" in perspective and that is why the company discussed them in that context (same as mine here). The discussion of RC hold was to compare MPEL's 2.7% actual to the 3% top of "normal" range; that math would derive the rest of the context "miss" I discussed above. Peers had overline holds. all in, MPEL's Q was better than first blush.

    The mass table hold was full at 34% last Q as i pointed out then. I suggested it may be hard to sustain, but that it was great news anyway. I realize it is up 5% this Q and have discussed it at least twice, noting that WYNN's 45% is more unsustainably high.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 11, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    toast,

    Good post. But Citi's news was info from last week... Ho's reset was for 15- 20%+/- mass and flattish or less VIP this year. That foots to single digit growth "forecast" by him -- down a bunch from his 15% shared just 3 months ago. The new world expectation "update" from Ho last week essentially mandates that every analyst play catch up to Ho's newsmaking.

    We agree it is good to see the stocks hold up (WYNN still down over 20% from March peak and more than 10% from a couple weeks ago but almost as interesting to own as MPEL down here)... and MPEL should soon shake off the noise of the class action litigation chasers and the Taiwan "news"... the latest of about 2 dozen "legal reviews" launched by various agencies over macau-centric money transfers since 2010.

    Fun to point out that despite attacks on the airlines, online travel bookers and other discretionary sectors of late, they are now all reversing and tearing back toward recent highs. The gaming/entertainment sector now has one of the weakest RSIs of any market sector... great set up for positive news flow coming for MPEL in particular, but WYNN, LVS and Galaxy expansion projects on macau as well.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 11, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    COD Cotai mass table games up 38%, slots up 26%, rooms packed/ADRs rising, non-gaming revs up 8% despite flattish at Altria (table shift) all done with the impacts of the WC, media noise, "bomb-shelter"/glare of corruption noise bs all runs its course was not a terrible outcome... and that is before considering the 2.7% RC hold for the June Q when a 3% hold on RC would have added more than $60m of GR for the Q -- throw in the $10m for comp and $5m for one time charges and they would have beat consensus! As discussed on other threads, normalizing the holds at LVS and WYNN (the latter esp as regards the 45% mass win rate as that is not sustainable) would have clipped their performance for the Q, and MGM's was really rough in macau... but as stated prior, we think the group was beat plenty enopugh to make them all buys again...

    Old news, but MPEL also has the biggest footprint expansion of the group f18m and adj ebitda, having been burdened by carrying all of the training and preopening costs in Manila and now also Studio city as they target openings in 4Q and mid CY15, respectively, is likely to drive better than now discounted outcomes on adj ebitda next year... and while Packer and Ho's investment ownership will be pushing 69%+ by the end of this year if they use all of the current buyback authority, one can still own these shares "only" 39% above where they were on the last fire sale in July 2013.

    Interesting data point from IKGH last week... Macau "VIP" down 20% yoy in July, but IKGH up 7%? It may take some time, but those now calling VIP dead in Macau apparently don't realize it is still running roughly half the GR there... how many more days before Tam and the rest coddle up to the companies and wealthy mainlanders and HK players to encourage the tours and visitation again? We think it is a decade or so early to suggest Macau growth is a rear view mirror story, and apart from that, matrix is also correct in thinking a 10% growth curve is ok LT.

  • Reply to

    Reassuring "bashing" here...

    by squeezetracker Aug 11, 2014 12:40 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 11, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    I agree... but I have more like 40 on ignore and just graduated this f head blacknight to dead zone along with mytek/idiotpumper stalkers. LOL

    These guys are obviously idiots, but we are amazed to think their employers think they actually influencing tha tape when 95% of the stock and likely 98% of the tape is algo based trading on behalf of serious 13F and pro trading platforms. Rough board to even scan thread topics without constant use of the ignore key every click here given only about 10 posters are posting quality sincerely here with about 20 dopes using mulitple aliases 10 times/day to share their drivel. MPEL is just fine and so is the group... loved IKGH's report last week -- despite WC and all the other bs, Macau RC up 7%in July and anecdotal info that some premium mass players may be, at least temporarily, seeking cover from bright lights by playing under the tours for some indeterminate period? LOL

    Meanwhile, MPEL will soon be sending most if not all of their Japanese, Korean and perhaps Taiwan (LOL) players to Manila in a couple of months... and as they ramp COD Cotai (38% mass table games ramp there last Q) despite no footprint expansion there in some time, it is comforting to know that Macau and mainland officials will soon realize one can push out political foes and talk impressively about anti-corruption, but if it hurts macau and revenues for more than a few months it will be seen as folly in need of policy reversal.

    Fun to see MPEL continue to emphasize their partnership with polciy officials on developing fully Integrated Resorts, replete with world and best in class entertainment concepts as well as lux and ultra lux gaming facilities.

  • Reply to

    This BS will be over soon...

    by squeezetracker May 12, 2014 3:07 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Aug 11, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    I see the board's resident moron is asking for another punch in the face... tired of his bs so I'll pass. LOL

    As per above, though:
    " it has been ugly for anyone who bought a bunch above $40 (where we suggested hedging was a good idea and sold out two trading sleeves on the double top fail), but which firms have been gobbling up all the volume below $38 as it failed the 50 and then 200d ema? The firms that put on a bunch are some "smart money" players that will enjoy the double of ebitda over the next 2 years or so (i.e., the stock will likely move with similar delta)"

    Today the confederacy dolts posting here today along with this blacknight putz and his multialias pal idiotpumper/mytek think it worthwhile to suggest MPEL is hosed? About like HLF @ $49 last week. LOL Same on PCLN and the airlines.

    With the class action attys wasting exec time to seek D&O policy limits and the latest in a series of dozens of lawsuits regarding money transfers done by all of the major macau companies, MPEL has stated they believe their practices are compliant with applicable legislation. As a gen'l concept, they also likely have fidelity bond insurance for any possible criminal acts by any of their employees, should any such come up in the review, but MPEL has, out of hand, dismissed any meaningful downside as stated in the press release.

    Meanwhile, as the Ho reset of expectations for macau sets in on the new world order of mass growth and the multiple facet slowdown in VIP becomes better understood by all involved, MPEL's press release emphasizes that COD mass tables games (so what, 90+% of GR on the mass and premium mass floors) grew 38% last Q... adjust the holds for WYNN and LVS and MGM and you'll see that MPEL is kicking butt in mass... and adjust out MPEL hold on RC play to the ave of WYNN and LVS in macau last Q and you'll realize that is more than $50m for the Q (MPEL mentioned over $30m so that is clear).

    Glad they have the buyback up now -- Manila and MSC on deck.

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