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Tempur Sealy International Inc. Message Board

squeezetracker 177 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 10:03 PM Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • Reply to

    MGM vs. MPEL

    by paulchironis Mar 17, 2015 10:18 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 17, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    LOL... lots of folks do not understand what a REIT even means...

  • Reply to

    MGM vs. MPEL

    by paulchironis Mar 17, 2015 10:18 AM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 17, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    the debt is all in support of the hog real estate and the debt will go with the real estate if they do the REIT structure... the problem with it is that currently they own it all together, meaning they have flexibility for the next downturn. If they spin off the real estate, they have nowhere to hide if their tiny GGR relative to massive room counts drops off the cliff again.

    Shel and the LVS crew continue to articulate the reason they don't do the REIT spinoff is that retail adj ebitda multiples on retail properties are far too cheap relative to their growth rates, but they know the reality is that they do not "own" the land under their footprint in Macau, the only place LVS has concentrated real estate assets. GFL getting "conservative" yield/REIT investors to sWALLOW THOSE DISCLOSURES WITHOUT SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE THAN "TRUST US, we think Beijing officials like us and would never confiscate our buildings or gaming concession. (caps unintended)

    That said, MGM's real estate in Vegas will need to be valued as to the ebitda generated by the income streams they have as commercial real estate focused on largely seasonal MICE business... excluding Bellagio, they really do not have any serious ebitda emanating from Vegas gaming revenue vis a vis Macau as is evident in their financials. MGM's single porperty in Macau generates ~40% of total and almost as much as much ebitda as does their entire Vegas franchise excluding Bellagio.

  • Reply to

    Back of the envelope math

    by jane_tate Mar 17, 2015 4:00 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 17, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    okay Shirley Mason (toast, drjackoff, janetate, idiotpumper, fkuimbecile, fkunyc, fkuholly, et al in the “cabal”)… where would we all be without you hyping IKGH and tinkling on MPEL? LOL and "please refrain from those ad hominem attacks” while throwing stones from your “glass houses” ROTFLOL

    "toast22342000 • Mar 14, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I can't imagine anything more humiliating for the cabal than having to reply using multiple aliases, most of which I have on ignore because they are used to make replies so idiotic their sole purpose it to act as a distraction."

  • Reply to

    Uh oh. All casino stocks down again in Hong Kong

    by jane_tate Mar 16, 2015 11:06 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 17, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    Thanks for the update on your "periodicals" doogie, holy #$%$ is that valuable. LOL

    Did you get a Baron's subscription yet so you don;t have to ask me for articles? LOL

  • Reply to

    Uh oh. All casino stocks down again in Hong Kong

    by jane_tate Mar 16, 2015 11:06 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 17, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    Sybil,
    You are the sole "idiot" here Dougie, Tony is an intellectual giant in comparison. But you are a "laughable" moron, we'll give you that.

    So okay dougie aka Shirley Mason (toast, drjackoff, janetate, blaqnite, idiotpumper, fkuimbecile, fkunyc, fkuholly, et al in the “cabal”)… and "please refrain from those ad hominem attacks” while throwing stones from your “glass houses” ROTFLOL You have made many idiotic posts over time, but this one on your "toast22342000" alias is probably our favorite, an impaling all by your little old self. You suk at dissing, debate and multialias posting as well as stock picking doug... you really ought to stick to getting coffee for the ops staff and secretaries. ROTFLOL

    "toast22342000 • Mar 14, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I can't imagine anything more humiliating for the cabal than having to reply using multiple aliases, most of which I have on ignore because they are used to make replies so idiotic their sole purpose it to act as a distraction."

    Ain't that special for every other reader here? LOL

  • PCLN's currency piece will continue to hamper constant $ returns for them, but travelers going to europe from the americas are doing so about 1/3 cheaper than they could say a year ago...

    And don't look yet, but Europe's underpinnings of a recovery are emerging... just in time for the Fed policy changes to stomp on emerging economies while the U.S. and Europe chug along?

    TRIP has has a light clip down, but EXPE still a bit rich given the euro's tumble vs the USD and likely more coming.. if we were still long PCLN, we'd be paired off with the EXPE on the short side.

    We'll own them both again when they drift off... down 10% the current target.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 17, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    Li's comments at the session on march 5th that "adequate diversification expanded over the forward 20-30 years" vs right now is the single most important development for Macau since Zhou (the former PRC security director) was arrested by Xi Jinping's regime late last July in the mother takedown of all the "tigers" snared in the "corruption crackdown."

    In addition to all of the press coverage suggesting the sky is falling on Macau, Steve Wynn's orchestrated solicitation of LOA volunteers seems to have finally rung the clarion bell in Beijing... Seems they now have realized that further crimping VIP play in Macau is going to risk seriously impairing employment, gaming tax revenues paying for all the infrastructure development in macau, hengqin and surrounds, and put their "golden goose" is a penalty box thus making it easy for venues such as manila and Korea to continue grabbing the VIP business away from Macau. Clearly they have the crooks routed out of Macau, but obviously they want the rules compliant VIP play to continue without people shying away from the glare of unwanted spotlights on elite wealth players' desire to relax and gamble.

    It will be interesting to watch the playout from here forward -- solid table allocations for all companies, including Galaxy in the coming weeks at the latest, would be a great start of quality follow through action on the part of Beijing and Macau officials.

    Also great to see the sky rose a bit last week in what is the seasonally weakest month of the year in Macau. Henny Penny grinning at the gristmill. LOL

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 17, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    Here's some comedic irony -- look at this ridiculously ironic post from Shirley Mason over the weekend on SUNE (there he uses several of the IKGH aliases including drjackoff and toast). If anyone here had any wonder, read it slowly, remembering that he carries on conversations with and congratulates himself on his "superb analysis" and "great posts" and tends to think everyone gives a flying F how many alises he signs in on to give his multiple ratings upo or down. Holy S ironic and hilarious... and as with IKGH and here, generally wrong and incomplete while he attempts to dis anyone disagreeing with him. ROTFL

    "toast22342000 • Mar 14, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I can't imagine anything more humiliating for the cabal than having to reply using multiple aliases, most of which I have on ignore because they are used to make replies so idiotic their sole purpose it to act as a distraction."

  • Reply to

    Added to Position under $21

    by jaxxxx56 Mar 11, 2015 3:52 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 17, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    good comments...

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 16, 2015 4:41 PM Flag

    Here "Shirley Mason" uses drjackoff, toast, janetate, fkuholly, fkuimbecile, fkunyc, darqnite, idiotpumper and several others I don't recall offhand... but it is all ridiculous, to be sure. He was formerly pretty coy aboput keeping his fake personnas distinctly separate in his posts, but as he got carried away complimenting himself and signing in right here on so many aliases, he lost track of himself more than once. Hey Shirley mason was all a big hoax if you followed that story too, so maybe we should all thank drjackoff for his free entertainment here, albeit of the "stupid comedy" variety.

    Unless he is an unpaid intern, someone must be paying him by the hour to waste so much time trying to shake out 200 shares a month on a 5m shares a day tape. He's still hyping IKGH on brinerbriner and jugheadus and toast and janetate, though LOL

    He actually suks at debate if you have ever read any of his attempts to conjure up reasonable "arguments"... and now he has relegated himself to "ad hominem attacks," complimenting himself with various aliases, signing in multiple times to rate posts (like anyone gives a F) and throwing stones out of his glass house while everyone can see how lame all of that is.

    Meanwhile, the value guys are scooping up shares here... the business plan, execution and adj ebitda matter, but Shirley Mason's dog #$%$ on EPS or anything else does not. LOL

  • Reply to

    Squeeze is way off base

    by jane_tate Mar 13, 2015 12:46 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 14, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    Here's one of the examples of "puthimon" calling out Shirley mason (drjackoff, janetate, toast et al) right here on the MPEL board after Sybil hyping IKGH on many alaises on that board. Funny how bs stinks no matter where a dope tries to stuff it.

    From "puthimon" to drjackoff right here last December:

    "I see you finally took my advice on WYNN after losing all your money after being the primary pumper on IKGH all the way down from $9 until you shamefully left the board telling everyone they'd earn $4/share in 2014."

    Comedy if not such a deceptive ad hominem little pos...

    And gee, seems Shirley mason (drjackoff,janetate, toast et al) has stopped cutting and pasting David Bain's research updates on weekly market share... awwwww. Those who want such data can see the unofficial tallies from at least 3 other firms if you want to trade weekly options with the monkeys on such premises. LOL

  • Reply to

    Squeeze is way off base

    by jane_tate Mar 13, 2015 12:46 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 14, 2015 8:08 AM Flag

    Let me begin afesh by saying FY Shirley Mason (janetate, drjackoff, toast, brinerbriner and all the rest of you aliases you carry on your conversations with yourself on)... you are intentionally deceitful, underhanded and one very ad hominem little pos.

    You continue to amaze anyone reading your ironic bs. You have advocating buying IKGH since $8 (the first time you hyped it here and in other forums incl the lvsforum)... be sure and let us all know when you decide to sell that. Delcious irony that you were long that all the way down to $1.

    As for "changing our opinions" and my capacity to do that? Did i mention FY?

    My partner and I have shared many of our shofts in near term sentiment on this stock since 2009. Anyone reading here knows we've generally been long or hedged long, but also explained why we were selling out and or hedging with box shorts, paired offset, leveraged long, writing one way option premium (puts and calls) for the option monkeys, and many times sharing entry/add/ hedging and exit points.

    Anyone who thinks anything you have any credibilty should read all of that again to realize what a F moron you really are.

    Glad to have you short here putzbreath.

  • Irony squared:

    goog title for article that led Shirley ad hominem to call Jinping a "F hypocrite"...

    "China's next president has amassed a fortune running into hundreds of millions of pounds, according to a hugely damaging new report. The revelation comes as the Communist party faces increasingly difficult questions about how its leaders, who are paid ministerial salaries of just £8,000-a-year, live such gilded lives"

    Also search "XI Jinping family wealth"... the "corruption crackdown has certainly cleared out lots of legit criminals and truly corrupt govt officials, but much of the foxhunt and others incarcerated is more like the "masterful elimination of political enemies.

  • Reply to

    Lazlo Birinyi outlook

    by squeezetracker Mar 6, 2015 12:58 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 12, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    Maybe old Lazlo's Cheshire cat grin rally to 2250 on the broad market no later than June 30 is grinning even wider this morning based on weak U.S. sales data/Fed policy implications. I see Shirley deleted her "LOL" intellect on these Lazlo notes. Yeah, Lazlo's call was 3 months forward, not 2 days as noted below.

    Here's some fun for Shirley to drop and roll in... just covered in the MGM pair at 19.58 (w ave) on the uptick... sentiment is so heavy on Macau even MGM and WYNN are ready to springboard on any upbeat news. LVS is el cheapo down here too, some 30% below Shirleymatrixgenius' "scale in" (LOL) at $72 on that last year. His call for $16 here is right up there with his call for $75 PT on MPEL in January 2014 -- the same day I wrote here that some may want to consider selling/hedging some of the "easy gains" as we were doing at $43... a call repeated in March when it was ramping up past $43 on the double top at $45+.

    And how about those darling airlines, aapl and sbux... also back to long BABA again this morning... algo monkeysd shorting is as cocky on those are they are here. One fine cup of tea.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 11, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    This research was published with the stock at $23.65... nothing has changed since except:

    (1) the RIP to $28+ followed by the market swoon taking the entire Macau group (even though the VIP softness effects MPEL the least) back down to retest the mid-December lows, and

    (2) now Li Gang has made it clear that Beijing is realizing they need to protect Macau's gaming franchise/revenue because they have belated figured out all they are doing now (i.e., having culled out the corrupt politicians that stole PRC money and conducted illicit activity incl gaming) is making it easy for places like Manila, South Korea, Australia and the less developed places in Southeast Asia to grab that business.

    As even the Diawa analyst has said a few times, the chinese whales are going to gamble in one place or another... good to see Beijing figuring it out now.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 11, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    LOL...

    Shirley Mason, on at least three of her "periodicals" posting old news, wants to make sure the 17 people owning maybe 100k shares reading here know that political enemies of Xi Jinping that have not already left China (roof jumpers, executed/imprisoned last year, or absconded with illicit funds) are going to be pursued by Beijing security measures, especially if they steal more funds and try to gamble with them in macau or anywhere else. BFD and not even news.

    The cacaphony of blithering nonsense here is ridiculous to be sure.

    And still the big, quality, rules compliant VIP tours continue to carry ~75% of peak VIP into macau every week, and VIP play in Macau matters less to MPEL than any of the other companies, all of which are trading at washout EV valuations on this year's washed out estimates.

    I wonder if a total of 2k shares have sold out shares based on this blithering since the last retest and sharp reversal from $21 on jan 20 back to $28+ 30 days later... and now Feb, the "worst" comp yoy is behind the macau names.

  • Reply to

    Lazlo Birinyi outlook

    by squeezetracker Mar 6, 2015 12:58 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 10, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    2 days of full court press since Lazlo's comments... 114 to go to see if Lazlo called the broad market lift well once again.

  • Reply to

    Lazlo Birinyi outlook

    by squeezetracker Mar 6, 2015 12:58 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 10, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    As vast numbers of beta names -- all manner of growth and momo names for that matter -- have now reset hard as the algo flash boys play for a 10% correction in the indexes, the Lazlo update stands out there in the sun as regards broad market and, derivatively, most sectors, and certainly this group now trading at lows going back to June 2013.

    MGM (pair) has not yet been hurt that badly in this last dip, having dropped less than the group on the "strength" of its Vegas franchise. The MGM tape meanders off from reality though; it doesn't reflect that 80%+ of MGM's ebitda needs to be from Macau in 2017 or the new property on cotai will be a bus. Seems most cheerleaders there don't realize the Macau property generates as much ebitda as does the entire rest of their franchise ex-Bellagio.

    LVS, WYNN and MPEL are back to the June 2013 low once again, but what's new about MPEL since then? In percentage terms, adj ebitda is "crimped" roughly 1/4 the percentage the stock has dropped drop since March 2014, t12m ebitda from mass was less than 50% of total and is now ~85% of total -- best in group -- meaning MPEL is the least reliant on crunchy Macau VIP of all, the room count incl Studio city and Manila is more than doubled and COD Tower 5 plus the second phases of SC and manila will add even more than that... and as of this week only Union, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Citi have rerating to the positive after calling out the bottom, while several others are yelling "FIRE" in the theater just like they were with MPEL at $21 in mid 2013 or at $13 in late 2012 (yeah, when LVS was printing $36) as that crew all sang "kumbyah" and that gaming revenues would be forever turning up from there, too.

    p.s. good to see the idiot parade out in full force down here. I just unveiled Shirley's patently obnoxious alias series here (fkuimbecile fkunyc fkholly idiotpumper mytek) to read she thinks 2 trading days later is Lazlo's 116 days between his comments and June 30? Too funny..

  • Reply to

    Lazlo Birinyi outlook

    by squeezetracker Mar 6, 2015 12:58 PM
    squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 8, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    Ed,
    The market quivered out of fear Yellen's comments and the strong seasonally adjusted jobs number released on Friday means that the Fed may (oh my lions and tigers and bears oh my) raise the target FF rate as early as her comment "no earlier than June."

    Seers lazlo and Bill Gross grinned at the overreaction to known influences... a point I certainly agree with if one's visual horizon is longer than Friday's algo tape on the broad market.

    My point was that Lazlo has an outstanding dial on the market with his MF quant process and has one of the finest records on calling key market events of anyone publishing over time, and that he presently has the demeanor of the Cheshire cat about the market as he raised his overarching S&P500 target to 2250 (up from 2000 he had for ~year end 2014) VERY NEAR TERM (6/30). Lazlo has long set broad targets, and methodically revisits next targets when they are achieved or the game is changed.

    To be clear, nothing I said was intended to infer he mentioned anything about Macau names (he did not do so), though having subscribed to Lazlo's work for years, I can say that he is very constructive on the market and China's prospects. I have never seen him so overtly bullish over a compressed timeframe, and that bullish note is very encouraging as China and Europe step on the economic stimulus throttle simultaneously. Japan is mashing the floorboard as well.

    fwiw, in my view the key news of the ytd period for the macau names were Li's comments discussing the stunning -- and obviously Beijing endorsed -- revelations about NOT further "sacrificing" the Macau gaming revenue in quest of "adequate diversification," with the now rethought timeline and importance of "diversification" being to make progress "over the next 20-30 years" instead of prior to granting tables to the 8 new projects coming on stream in Cotai over the next 2 years.

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Mar 7, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    p.s. someone ought to send this Chinese paper a correction email -- the amount in the third to last paragraph s/b $1.3B, NOT "a colossal $13B." And that fraudster guy who stole the money from the junket may never be found; Beijing's targets have a way of "mysteriously" disappearing, though China's security forces likely already recovered the money.

TPX
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