thanks for the share drjack. Bain is pretty bullish on WYNN's near term (we think WYNN's VIP mix will hurt them more than LVS reflected and certainly more than MPEL which has the most mass of the 4 U.S.listed companies, but looking forward to Steve's update/outlook tonight, particularly if he can confirm -- as LVS did -- that Xi is coming in december for the 150th anniversary celebration.
I see below our memory-impaired board girl matrixtrade still can't process info that we sold out the trade sleeve (basis below $34 back then) at $43 and explained why we were hedging the core (owned at $17) back to the 50d ema. LOL Stupidity is tragic, so is acting like a little girl on AOL with his new pal mytek/blacknite/idiotpumper/tahoe. He was funnier when he hyping MPEL getting to $75 this year, followed by his update that $21 was coming right up and with his delusion that we somehow give a flying rat's behind whether he "respects" us. What a putz. LOL
We still have the puts we wrote at $24 a couple weeks ago... we'll take that assignment. LOL
though... Nomura's chart uses "visitors to the island" as the denominator (x axis) and concludes things are eroding... that is off base. Wrong to be clear. MPEL's hotels are full on COD and likely moving back toward that now at Altira. So what becomes the relevant denominator for any look through analysis of gaming revenue and ebitda growth for MPEL is mass GR/table and mass GR/room. Both of those measures are growing well for MPEL, and so is overall ebitda. Repeating myself, VIP is less important to MPEL than any of the other companies, including LVS if you study the mass/total mix ytd through June.
As I wrote on the other thread, MPEL is not focused on trying to capture daytripper business and likely never will be, even as daytripper counts accelerate as the transportation infrastructure comes up to speed. In this context, it is not important whether length of stay or "spend per visit" increase if the denominator is the total visitation to Macau. Again, the business is simple from a resort operator seat. At COD and soon Studio City, you want the rooms packed out with players who will dine, go to the shows, and game there -- the "stay and play crowd."
Altira, repurposed and all... will increasingly be focused on meeting the needs and wants of the high end VIP tours. Those guys are typically in for just one night and then want a flight or helicopter ride back out the next day... they are not going to shows or touring the island... they are there to smoke, drink, play and enjoy the lux handling of everything they want. Again, not about "length of stay" or "spend per increased border crossing visitors."
Back to the video -- love the Bloomberg lady saying everyone is copying LVS -- MPEL is certainly NOT doing that -- not about MCE, low level/all segment mass, and not trying to have more rooms than anyone else, just focused on high end of mass and VIP. Manila will be a different game. ~1/3 VIP at least it seems, but ALL mass levels incl local walk-ins.
The Tracy interview was, as you put it on that thread, focused on "build it and they will come" along with his view that MCE facilities will eventually prove to be profitable for them more than on big events., as well as Tracy's comment that easing corruption/low profile thinking will, over what he called "a reasonably short period," restore GGR revenues (get growth back on track as it were). He also suggests LVS' room quantity and variety positions them to appeal to various market segments from mainland china better than any other company. All likely correct.
I just watched it start to finish again though, because I didn't recall anything about a linear relationship between room additions and length of stay other than his broad comments about families coming there for longer than a daytrip if they could get a room. However, that doesn't hold up to LVS running at more around 90% occupancy quarter in and out -- except 100% on holidays. Length of stay, whether he or Tam or anyone else doing business there likes it or not, remains stubbornly aroundjust one night, and will likely continue to be like that as all wishful thinking aside, they really do not have multi day conventions there to speak of (nothing like Vegas anyway), and Chinese people go there to game, not hang out for a week at a spa resort such as happens in Maui, San Diego/Carlsbad, the "Gold Coast" of Mexico or the elite Florida destination resorts.for example.
Further, the "spend per visit" wasn't really part of his theme... my point at the top of this thread was quite simple and apart from Tracy's. Visitation going up is neat, but MPEL, in particular, has no problem keeping its own rooms packed out day in and out -- thus driving 100% occupancy stats for them at COD. This is MPEL knowing their customer base, and having customers in the rooms that MPEL knows will "stay and play" and go to the shows. Repurposing Altira for the big tours is also about targeting what customers want.
I think you agree they would be a great additional concessionaire in Manila... Some 45k Koreans went to macau last year and a bunch from Taiwan as well. All of those guys will likely prefer the shorter trip to Manila once COD is up and running, and Caesar's will no doubt build a quality property -- way ahead of Solaire -- there is permitted. Who cares if they don't know how to make money running a gaming resort... they will add to the ambiance and relevance of manila as a destination place to game.
Nothing new here... but visitation was up 3%/7% for Sep and ytd (YOY). Given MPEL has run at 100% occupancy at COD all year, Nomura should chart companies' mass GR/room and table to understand what is happening to MPEL this year (VIP less important to MPEL than any other company in Macau). WYNN's report tomorrow likely to illustrate more crimp than did LVS' report last week. VIP is more important in WYNN's mix, and the Oct mkt share data was a tell.
"DSEC indicated that visitor arrivals increased by 3% year-on-year to 2,405,497 in September 2014. Same-day visitors accounted for 52% of the total, at 1,241,926.
Analysed by place of residence, visitors from Mainland China increased by 6% year-on-year to 1,595,485, coming primarily from Guangdong Province (641,481) and Fujian Province (75,084); Mainland visitors travelling under the Individual Visit Scheme rose by 11%, at 653,800. Visitors from the Republic of Korea (46,812) and Japan (27,331) increased by 24% and 7% respectively year-on-year, while those from Hong Kong (509,181) and Taiwan (79,968) decreased by 3% and 13%. Long-haul visitors from the United States (13,787) registered year-on-year increase of 7%, while those from Australia (8,840), Canada (5,031) and the United Kingdom (4,291) saw decrease.
The average length of stay of visitors remained unchanged from a year earlier, at 1.0 day in September 2014; overnight and same-day visitors stayed an average of 1.9 days and 0.2 day respectively.
In the first three quarters of 2014, visitor arrivals reached 23,529,009, up by 7% year-on-year, with same-day visitors sharing 53% of the total. Visitors from Mainland China (15,812,886), the Republic of Korea (420,464) and Japan (228,031) increased year-on-year, but those from Hong Kong (4,864,004) and Taiwan (726,921) decreased. Moreover, long-haul visitors from the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom recorded year-on-year increase; however, those from Canada registered decrease."
Forbes goes own to wax about how wonderful it is that Packer's Crown Resorts and others from Asia are plowing money into Vegas, a sure sign they will be coming evermore in ever-increasing masses... yeah, sure... and then that author, Muhammud Cohen (talk about a rough name to grow up with), who really is quite well educated and writes well and really ought to have a bit of knowledge about the sector and journalist blood in him after all these years, goes on to say how wonderful Packer's gaming resorts in Australia are doing.
He must be either getting paid by Packer's entourage or other cronies "developing" in Vegas. Those who have read the threads here about how difficult it is for resort operators to get Chinese players/whales to go to Australia know that is nonsense -- as told by Packer at his annual meeting and various execs in the articles noted. If Cohen was doing a balanced article, you know, kinda like a real journalist might, he might have noted that Packer and Crown have already failed twice in Vegas, and that MGM didn't want to add to their albatross position on the strip -- neither did Steve or Shel. No one we know in the mm business thinks Vegas has a bright future in GGR terms. Nah -- just blue hairs, tour buses, college kids on break'clubbing, CMA award nights and various conventions filling the buffets and off strip rooms, while non-gaming foreigners fill the rack rate rooms and overpriced "name" restaurants.
Re Nomura's dipstick chart, meant to add above that mass $ bet per border crossing is down for the reasons noted, but #$%$ does that have to do with, for ex, MPEL booking only players/customers they want in their best in class mass/premium venue? Absolutely nothing... most of those daytripper border crossers came over for a day, ate lunch/dinner, pulled low $ slots for a few minutes, had a drink or two, bought a t-shirt, watched a show and left on the next bus. Hard to believe any of these people get paid to write such inane commentary.
good post toast... only a couple of guys still posting anything other than schmeck here lately.
I agree entirely with Tracy -- see last paragraph of part two of my post below.
Ignatius Reilly wrote a novel about people like this... LOL
Let's excuse Shuli renn at Barron's -- we know she is only parroting what dippy analysts write, preferably and generally only negative "realtime, market making news" [as if and LOL] commentary starting about the time Xi's campaign began on stealth last summer, around the WC and first derivative going negative on Nomura's dippy chart.
So Nomura thinks that spending per visitor crossing the macau border has slowed starting about when the public "office manners" campaign, underscored by Party directives to avoid ostentatious showing of wealth and excess, began right about when the UnionPay nonsense, "visa restrictions" noise and the other 13 bs noise rattles all began buzzing in unison -- and all of that right at the start of Xi's real campaign to thrash all corrupt politicians and their payors began (as said above, in stealth mode)? How about we give them a BFD Leader of the Confederacy of Dunces" award? Ignatius would gladly cede the leadership crown. NFS all of the noise and very real fraud witchhunts have slowed down VIP and HNW direct credit play. And NFS much of the visitation, increasingly by mainlanders as HK patrons kept a lower profile in recent months, don;t play with the same wallet as the preponderance of players from prior to last summer.
Then we have the Forbes guy... anyone does more than read yhoo boards as diligence (or even if that is all one does on MPEL LOL), you know, like maybe read the data series released by the Nevada gaming commision and dcgi for Macau every month and then listened to WYNN's last CC re flyins, and then processes that more than a few private jets full of players went to Vegas from China in May, June and july would know that they also pretty much shut down in August as Vegas table games dropped almost 12% YOY. It may pick up again into EOY in Vegas, but the data showed the Chinese players slowed in july and stopped traveling to the Strip altogether in August
Thanks again for this great thread... outstanding share, especially vs all the lame posts by the two little girls and also the guy posting 2 pages of bump every day here. Who would pay for any of that? Do they actually think they are getting people to sell out down here along the bottom grind? ROTFL Anyway, makes it fun to bump a good thread here, especially since my entire first page is ignored out every day when I log on. LOL
In the MPEL headline bank, there is an out of place MGM story with new photos that lead one to think they finally got the second floor done at MGM Cotai, just as Galaxy, WYNN palace and Studio city (Phase One) are at capping and ready to get blitzing on the interior trims for the next several months.
Final comment we'll share on yhoo as discussed OT here with grftt) We doubled this on the way up at $39 last week, but yhoo is a great trade after the cfo's comments last night about enhancing yhoo share value by doing something tax efficient when they are at liberty to do so. They are locked out until 12 mo from the ipo, but they can do the certificate spinoff as soon as the new tax year if one reads through the cfo's encryption and then Marissa commenting "we let you know [the structure for spinning BABA] in january." With BABA at $95, the implied tax free value of the BABA shares is $38+, leaving YHOO Japan, tumblr and the other recent acquisitions to round out another $12 or so... and legacy YHOO comes "free" on SOTP.
In short, we think this roars to $50 if BABA powers to $100 soon, and if BABA just flatlines at $95ish, yhoo should get to no less than $50 by the Jan update. As with mpel, we'll suggest spec capital only.
Several on the loop are are on select airline trades with us... fun long over the last two years then out, then chop surfing and now back to 100% long (a couple of days early, but lots of fun since then). MPEL the NBT -- a few more days, weeks or months before the lift?
Remember friends, MPEL is hurt less by the 25% falloff in VIP play than any of the four U.S. listed companies doing business in Macau... and now we have Tam crying uncle already...
Time for Xi to say the "corruption crackdown" is not over, but Macau is not the witchhunt target -- the "private clubs and shady deals" he talks about are... 4000 of them in Beijing alone.
Thanks for sharing the data set drjack. Bain's update this morning suggested Oct will be challenged as to tough 2013 GGR/VIP comps and fat holds last year (no doubt given the HK pizza/pepsi riot and ongoing impairment of VIP based on the corruption crackdown).
But here is the fun part for MPEL:
"October 1 – 19 market share results. According to our checks, October 1 – October 19 table-only market share results are: SJM at 23.0% (vs. September share of ~20.8%), Galaxy at 23.0% (vs. ~22.8), LVS at 23.0% (vs. ~21.8%), MPEL at 15.0% (vs. ~12.6%), WYNN at 7.0% (vs. ~11.1%), and MGM at 9.0% (vs. ~9.0%)."
As drjack noted after his review of Bain's entire report, Bain expects GGR to be down ~22% in a range of 18-23% yoy in his forecast work... As noted in prior threads though, MPEL's business plan has been close to ideal positioning for what is going on with VIP as MPEL is less reliant on VIP than the other U.S. listed companies, including LVS. That mix differential is consistent with MPEL picking up more relative share again Oct 2014 MTD -- while WYNN's share fades and MGM flatlines.
See prior comments on share and mass/VIP implications for MPEL for the Sep Q. The math here is simple, but using Bain's framing with the street est for MPEL at -5% revenue growth for the Sep Q, if they merely continue to run at 60% mass 40% VIP (data for June ytd but likely closer to 65/35 for Sep Q) and Macau's mass is up/VIP is down 15%/-20%,respectively, MPEL should do call it flat GGR for 3Q YOY. Another aspect is that MPEL has consistently outpaced Macau mass numbers for the last two years... again, that would be consistent with MPEL grabbing additional share until VIP returns to a positively sloped trend.
MGM Cotai's "construction" status noted above was updated by Pansy Ho in today's article and underscore how well positioned MPEL is with COD and Studio City's premier entertainment themes "thought of/planned" long before the 4 month of VIP swoon.
Tough times make Macau casinos stronger: Pansy Ho
Pansy Ho Chiu King (pictured), co-chairperson of casino operator MGM China Holdings Ltd, on Friday indicated the downturn in Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) would help Macau gaming operators become more efficient, more competitive and ultimately make them stronger...
... the focus of the local gaming industry is now changing to complementary offerings – such as entertainment. She said such offerings were likely to be of proportionally greater importance in the upcoming large-scale projects in Cotai than in the existing ones. At the Global Gaming Expo Asia 2014, Ms Ho had said Macau casino operators were “eager” to push for diversification.
On Friday, Ms Ho reiterated that every gaming concessionaire is now planning for more non-gaming investment in the new properties, due to open between 2015 and 2017.
“I’m sure each of us [casino operators] has the intention to follow that route, either alone or in partnership with other entities,” Radio Macau quoted Ms Ho as saying. She did not elaborate.
The Macau government has previously indicated the size of allocation of gaming tables for new projects would be linked to the amount of non-gaming facilities that were built.
Ms Ho also talked about the construction of MGM Cotai, the US$2.9 billion property that the firm is developing. She admitted that labour costs and a shortage of construction workers could put back the opening of the new casino resort, scheduled for 2016. She had already talked about the city’s labour pains in July.
In August, MGM Resorts International, the parent of MGM China, shifted ground on the MGM Cotai opening date, no longer telling investors it expected to open the property “in early 2016"
Some here think australia poses serious competitor to macau for Chinese whales, but as per our counterpoints, we sure do not and neither do the companies doing business there if you study the articles in this thread.
This entire thread is informative for those who want to understand why Chinese VIP play is weak in Australia, but MPEL's own co-chairman James Packer's comments at his separate Crown Resorts annual meeting last week were even more to the point.
Simply put, VIP is a rough go for Crown and everyone else trying to get Asian players to travel to Australia to play... it is just too far, explaining why Crown's numbers on that score continue to be very weak, despite throwing lots of promo money and now some new, longer range jets at the problem. Meanwhile, the rest of his Crown Resorts ebitda continues to be weak sauce and fully explain why he pushed for cash dividends out of MPEL... they need the coin to pursue their efforts at development independent of MPEL's future development plans in Macau, Manila and Japan.
Here's the Australian (newspaper) coverage of these issues from Packer's meeting where he blasted critics and Aussie govt policy shifts undermining his company's new development ideas and rollouts.
goog this title for article:
"James Packer hits out at Crown’s gambling critics, governments"
Good to see him tout the highlights of the MPEL story though... Crown Resorts best asset allocation to be sure, even though 67% earnings growth for 2013 YOY will be subdued when 2014 is done... those with a little forward vision will soon be focused on the easier comps for 2015, especially since Manila and Studio city will both be up and cranking shortly.
This bullmarket f head trying to dis me with his special little girl passive aggressive bs? LOL Read his clueless post above (or anywhere else he posted for that matter) and then read my very civil reply to his bs about LVS on the MPEL board below... seems he doesn't like being confronted with civil, objective information, and cheers the morons trying to ruin this board?
We are pleased that matrix has his new friend, mytek/blacknite/idiotpumer/taho s head who is one of the longtime "bashers" here, making an #$%$ of themselves every post. They both make the guy posting 50 times a day look like a mental giant...
MPEL relative valuation is ridiculous now, and over the near term, what with the Manila rollout coming up within days and before long thereafter first phase of Studio city followed by Tower 5 at COD and boubling ebitda and the company generating best in class adj ebitda relative to footprint, it is likely to resume leadership of the group in terms of relative performance.
MPEL still has $400m of buyback authroization once the blackout (pending manila and 3Q results) is done. Meanwhile, those who can think and actually understand the business learned much from the LVS report last week, as the grind along the bottom winds toward the logical end.
btw, there was nothing on the call to inspire any confidence about Vegas for the "analysts" (e.g., Karen, Robin, McKnight and others who have faded from touting Vegas' "resurgence" until last month when tables games dropped off 12% YOY and slots went to negative YOY. Those reading here (educated guess until Steve's confirmation of fly-ins to Vegas for May and June) with a brain should not be surprised as we've pointed out this dynamic since early last summer.
otp, we are surprised to see WYNN and MGM respond so favorably this morning, since on the face of it, both of those companies but especially MGM does not have the advantaged business mix that MPEL and LVS have positioned on Macau. Perhaps Steve is giving some winks as to their being considerably better than LVS at servicing the quality/big tours and that they are ok on 2Q and fwd, but MGM is not. Oh well... we pulled the MGM (paired) short anyway (no current position other than MPEL now).
Extending that, perhaps it is simple short covering on the part of pm with directional (downside) bets that the smart money realizes are now over and done on the sector, but small cap domestic co BYD's strong rally today is surprising. Perhaps those short BYD don't understand that China's whale play in Vegas from May through July (before vanishing from the scene) was only at WYNN, LVS and Bellagio? BYD doesn't have any Gulfstream jets or pilots on staff, and the Chinese guys don't play in BYD's off strip or Reno casinos last time we checked. LOL
As noted here and on the other post last night, the LVS update, while less than thrilling for LVS longs, was very solid considering all of the bs noise and very real Xi campaign to eradicate corruption from throughout the party ranks (none of which is directed at Macau or gaming per se).
Also great news to hear Bob confirm reports that Xi intends to visit Macau in December, reassuring residents, IR companies, players the street that corrupt govt officials -- not gaming -- is the target. All that is very reassuring for MPEL longs, as the strength of LVS' quarter clearly illustrates no company is better positioned for the current environment in Macau than MPEL.
We are back to 100% long the trading slug again.
LOL at the idiots still wetting themselves here like little girls on AOL this morning. We love having butt wipe bosses paying the s heads for their lame posts as if anyone reading here is going to sell out based on what the cork soakers write here. Too funny...
As you know, we are on the same page goos. See my other thread from the LVS CC and this morning's post above...
yhoo boards chopping today...
GS analyst just got them into a nice conversation on the 19% shopping malls bz noted above. They emphasized the 19% growth is great -- but far from gone feeding that golden goose and more progress to come.
The last question is Shel talking about the corruption investigation involving the narrow portion of govt officials involved in corruption amongst communist party/govt officials and why he said over in december. He clarified that he was basing his remarks on info the govt had disclosed at the time but they are seeking additional clarity and don't know much more than lots of govt officials are being reviewed (Xi's tigers and flies). Shel is throwing around a number -- 7k gov't. officials? -- that are being investigated by the time the review is done in a few more months? Don't know the source of those comments or how objective they are, but fun to listen to, and it seems pretty clear that govt officials won;t be doing much high limit play in Macau anytime soon. LOL Shel concluded that roundabout answer by saying that gaming growth will be back over the next few months, adding; it isn't going away ever.
edited from mbabablitz thread on other board
Relentless bs noise, the HK pizza and coke "riot" and the very real corruption crackdown have hammered the US and HK listed companies, and taken out well over 35% of sector market cap of late... now the big caps are being taken out behind the barn and shot in the head, especially the high fliers NFLX tonight).
As the talking heads and so-called "analysts" have continually issued downcast reports, it is all too familiar to those who have followed the sector over the last several years. We don't currently own LVS, but good to see the results as solid as they are given all the noise from all corners and Xi's witchhunt (see Zhou story from late July through last week)... the entire sellside group was suggesting the stocks were all going down a lot more back in 2009 and then again in 2012 -- right at the bottom then too with MPEL at $13 and LVS at $38.
Bob is currently yawning over the smoking areas... surprise surprise (not)... and he just confirmed Xi is coming to macau in December to express his ongoing commitment and support. Shel just called ot a red herring" with no impact as [respectful, disciplined] chinese visitors to the properties follow rules and do what their govt tells them to do.
If you skimmed past it, check out the Asian malls sales numbers... like Shel said, the massive drop in china's GDP from 7.5% to 7.4% says a lot about the "Sky is Falling" criers on China... not any time soon it seems, a point underscored by the recent jump in Rio's ore shipments/pricing and last month's import/export data and china's big benefit coming from the oil drop. The buyback crank and re-up of $2B and new properties next yr [SC, Parisian, Galaxy] were also highlighted as big factors for new bz/excitement next year.
As typical, LVS had a couple somewhat soft properties vs others and don't expect a big RC turnaround in Macau anytime soon, but overall a solid update for those long the sector. Yawn on the U.S. properties..