"Oversold" is a technical analysis term... the stock has been "overbought" in technical analysis parlance -- for the last few weeks.
The stock has been fading only for two days, and we'll suggest the options expiry means nothing to these shares as the common tape dwarfs the option book.
There are several key dynamics involved here, but you new longs here need to understand this may easily pull back to the 50D ema, even without any further sector fade or micro/macro "bad news" into EOY. Frankly, the stock has been so spectacular this year it has attracted lots of folks who, from their posts and chasing on light volume, don;t know much about gaming, MPEL, the markets or any at all about quant and technical analysis. It could use a nice shakeout back to the 50d ema, a quality rest as it were.
Your comments do not make sense on several counts.
For anyone who understands taxes, one is almost always going to be better off selling out positions with big gains AFTER the year ends, not in December.
MGM is not going to be a star stock next year on fundamentals or ebitda or footprint expansion. MGM is was overvalued vs better names in the sector.
and WYNN? Not for us or anyone else listening to what Steve wants to do in the rust belt. LOL
And MPEL? See our comments below for a take different than yours.
It may pullback or even correct, but you shared support for youe target at the amoeba level so let's intelligently review the scene. If you are assuming the market is going to correct 20-30% rapidly and this high beta name (with many others) will suffer a worse adjustment as momo players who, likely as with you, do not know the first thing about gaming ebitda and this company's performance vs peers, then maybe we get a big whack. But we don;t think so.
Every pm who wanted out thiis Q to lockdown incentives for 2013 is now sold out or at least done with box hedging, so that money flow in these shares is bound to have a reversal effect over the next month or two.
Exploring basic technicals here in a vacuum, i.e. ignoring the fundamentals and powerful growth story here, as well as the quant pieces in favor of further progress. On a chart basis, the stock has just broken out to new highs with a flaw in terms of lackluster volume 50 day ema, and the stock is marginally overbought on fast stochastics and institutional money flow. This is consistent with what I said above on known pm activity here (incl us hedged to just over $38) and many new retail hands (long and short) chasing shares to deal with the sharp run up in recent weeks. Let's also lay in that we do not see a sharp pullback (let alone bear market correction of 20% or more) for the market or these shares, and still it would be well within our expectation that the white hot gaming sector could pause for a week or two into January.
If that unfolds, and consistent with all of the foregoing comments, we think a mild pullback might well happen here. A drawdown to $35.26 would be only the second test of the 50d ema since the current runup began here. We think that would be a beautiful place for us to cover in our short hedge, and we'd be adding there too, unless the entire market is THEN collapsing. In that case, we'd sell out the long and add to the short here ( and every other big beta name we own.
That has shaken out the momo long nubs and has great outlook update coming. The stock will likely be back above $25 (35% move) right after the Dec Q cc.
Love to see a gap open above $20 tomorrow as KKD RIPS to close the drop gap.
see KKD board for more info on this next big mover higher...
We've been saying since about $50 on HLF and $48 on EXPE that those two are both going to $100 next year, but in percentage terms, KKD is going to be just as much fun for the longs... and quickly!
Wonder if he will walk across the set to Cramer's show as he did last time, especially since Cramer said he wanted him to come on and discuss the story before recommending it on his dippy show. LOL
This story is playing right up our alley after the bs drop late last month. Check out our record on GMCR, SBUX, HLF, AAPL (reload at $389), Mako (short from $37 to cover at $12 then long to 15.80), long BAC from $6 last year, long GS (from 89 to out early at 140), PCLN at $595 to 950 then again from 905 to 1100), expe since $48, long DAL and ALK all year before jumping back on LCC and UAL two months ago), etc...
In fact, we have been right on essentially every idea we share on yahoo. Have fun with our reply if you find one you think we were wrong on. LOL
Again, see you pushing mid $20s on KKD within 6 weeks or so (the day after the Dec Q cc).
Last Q the stock took 35 days to go from 18 to $25, this Q, with more stores, improving revenue, and margins, terrific numbers internationally (just getting going in the middle East, India and Taiwan) and also just underway with the coffee initiatives), we are now 20 days past the bs drop caused by dip S momo chasers and moronic shorts the likes of which post here every day.
The stock is about to roar back above $25 over the next 6 weeks -- be ready to participate or wish you did. LOL
Read the part below again, but only after reading the first post above which recaps what Ho has been saying about dividends since pm were worried about them issuing stock to start Manilla two years ago with the stock at $9!
Then give some thought to the $340m of debt issued today to fund the rest of the Manila build out... then ask yourself if you think their internal cash flow projections and planned debt financing to complete projects with shovels and or finish trims on site have room to start a common dividend.
Look, I am not saying they will not start a dividend, just making it clear that their institutional shareholders -- certainly incl us -- do not want them to come with dividends financed out of incremental debt issuance, and Ho's comments below (you quoted) are plain in that context... I can say forcefully that not one pm owns it for current or future dividends!
"I think stepping aside, and I think between the 2 founding shareholders, Melco and Crown, our desires for dividends and our interest are completely aligned with our institutional shareholders, as both Melco and Crown has never taken any money off the table, has only put in more."
That is correct -- and a huge part of why they have not needed to do a secondary equity raise or even more debt -- instead, they waited for ample cash flow to minimize new debt issuance for development monies, and they have issued bare bones debt -- just exactly the way smart guys tuned into what their institutional ownership thinks they should do while tripling the footprint between now and end of 2016.
LOL We need a bunch more for all the new F heads shorting this yesterday.
Love the moron talking about MF MF MF POS POS market and stock... he must have been forced to move back into his mother's trailer and ask for his job back at the carwash. LOL
let me speak for all of the longs here...
See you above $90 within a few weeks. LOL
Woody Allen socks need to be restocked for all the new mornons here today. LOL
The lockdown of ytd gains by funds via sell out or hedging is over now... and the stock is back to WAY too cheap to stay off. We are now back to a full allocation to the name.
UBS initiated coverage today with a BUY rating... because they understand DAL is THE airline stock to own for 2014, just as it and ALK were for 2013.
no. The ceo's small sale is trivial; only an imbecilic short on this board would suggest that sale means anything to DAL's stock for even a moment. The stock has been soft for the reasons stated above.
Today is reversal day.
Many pm incl us have huge DAL gains this year and either sold out or box hedged (shorted their own shares to lockdown ytd gains) over the last several weeks. Excl AAL up on the merger momo trade, and ignoring that oil has increased 5% over the last month, the lockdown of ytd gains is what we see on the charts of the sector, but DAL retains all of the attributes needed (rasm, casm, exec mgmt, routes etc) needed to sustain relative outperformance through 2014.
As a follow up to my comments on this thread, MPEL just priced a $340m debt financing at 5% capex for COD Manila. Tower 5/Studio City will also require further debt financing...
Those advocating a common dividend here, including any analysts, must not be doing legit spreadsheet analysis, and or they must have incredibly optimistic ebitda growth assumptions (with only COD Manila changing the footprint for the next 3.5+ years)... or they think MPEL is going to come with equity issuance. The latter would clobber the stock in our view' market cap would likely be clobbered by a bunch more than the equity capital raised.
Everyone can do their own thinking, but fear of an equity raise (vs using cash flow and ebitda) to pay for footprint expansion will clobber these shares, and if you do the math on a common dividend, it makes no sense for this company, in rapid IR expansion mode for the next 3 years and then taking say another 2 years to get all of the new plant ripping on ebitda, to issue incremental debt to initiate common dividends. Those reading our thoughts for a couple years know this is a three year old concept for us, the shareholder base and MPEL execs building their net worth.
Again, we would be surprised and disappointed to see them start a dividend -- and so would eveyone we know long serious shares here...
While there are exceptions, Loomis and Wellington have historically focused allocations on balanced portfolios with a heavy bond allocation, and they have long emphasized safety and dividend yield because that is what the 60+ set (suitability) should be doing to protect retirement assets. They do not typically focus a whole lot of energy or allocation into high growth venues with appurtenant risks that should be well understood in present in a client's portfolio.
If you know any mutual fund pm of at those firms, they tend to be a conservative lot overall... make a serious allocation to a stock that results in a serious loss and find yourself looking for a new job if the story on that. In that context, names like PG, WMT, and so n, you know, stocks that tend to perform about in line with the market and have nice dividend yields, fit right in for them. MPEL? Not so much.
As for the execs here? Ho is a young guy and working on his first billion of net worth... owning MPEL, with the driver's seat he occupies, is a perfect vantage point to do that. I'll pass on repeating what he said for a fourth time here, but go back and read what I wrote and do all the validation work you want to Ho's own comments. Further, if you do the math on ebitda and capex to do the build out of the COD Manila,and the Cotai projects, then depending on what you assume for ebitda on the margin and what the program will THEN be for Japan and where else?, they will have ample FCF to think through common and or sepcial dividends as WYNN and LVS are doing... We will have moved on to other ideas by the time that all unfolds, and so will most of their key long term sponsorship today.
A last point. We don;t think a single pm is long these shares with the idea of getting dividends any year soon, and think it would be a surprise -- and not wanted for the reasons already shared.
Up $1.30 since the post -- uncanny, huh? LOL... daytraders should sell the stake we suggested; investors should buy more here.