They cite favorable momentum topics going into 2014. Simila comments issued for DAL but not LCC.
To recap, we have a slightly different perspective. We certainly agree the stock is likely to continue moving higher in 2014, but that result will be more about outperforming existing ebitda growth expectations than the SA summary of footprint/resort development schedule. In other words, the SA recap issued in early November is a good summary of why the stock outperformed in 2013 (stock just today getting back to late October highs)-- not so much about what will drive the shares toward $50 next year.
On that point, as impressive as ebitda growth has been here (best in class relative to footprint) and baseline modeling is for 2014, from $12 to $37/share the ebitda multiple has expanded even faster meaning that the growth curve needs to steepen FASTER than street expectations to move the shares substantially higher. GS report yesterday backing down from the screaming buy was a precursor on this challenge -- even some of the marginal work published on this company is suddenly gripping this b school math.
Meant to add that even this guy from SA, who has made some good calls on this along the way, still does not have a meaningful bump from the table and machine doubling for Manila -- a reality consistent with the company not saying much about this dynamic yet... but other than this SA guy, most of the street is pretty much worthless to the core pm holders here anyway, and as they raise estimates on beat and raise Qs next year, that will be good for the stock.
fun to read it again... the stock drifted since that report and only bumped hard over the last two days. We see it all as consistent with year end sell outs and hedging of the huge gains (more than 2 bagger!) during 2013 as part and parcel of lockdown on 2013 incentive comp for pm and associates.
As for why the stock is rising over the last two days? LVS news has helped the group to be sure, but that rolled over again today. Additionally, perhaps the remaining trading club putzes and perhaps a couple more hedge funds net short decided to cover in while the group has been running... but the stock is winded and could use a rest near term, so it will be interesting to see.
As reflected in our shared PT (40 by january call and $50+ next year), we certainly agree with drjack that the stock will go higher... but it is also likely to be up and down in the choppy tape over the next few weeks.
As we noted two months ago the ceo buy was a signal to own this but then we bailed as the stock stalled vs DAL and LCC post approval. Then, as noted right here a couple weeks ago, we suggested selling out UAL as this stock was showing topping action and now the stock has caved almost 9% from the $40+ top. But now, with the visible hedges about done going on and those who wanted to bail off the plane, it's time to own this stock again as the hedges are unneeded down here.
So as we lightened and then bailed on our long run up in both DAL and LCC, we love the relative underperformance of UAL this week and initiated a new position here today.
Watch for a solid lift into EOY. Likely more will be pulling hedges and getting long than just Bill Miller (UAL is his top sector pick on relative valuation and conclusion that mgmt will be doing better than sukin going forward) and us starting about tomorrow morning, especially once the recent oil pricing (jet A fuel) blip gets back in line with the reality that higher rates = stronger dollar should be driving LOWER oil prices (as seen with Brent vs WTI last two days) since oil is US$ denominated.
Chances to buy cheap when the story fundamentals are better than ever before are rare... this is one of those times.
fwiw, incentive hedging revisited...
We are on our biggest long ever here, but the frothy tape is inconsistent with quality accumulation over the last few days in a down market. The group is also showing some topping action again, and this stock looks a lot like panicky short covering to us (again)... volume there today so we hedged out half (again) just above $37.25.
Every comment you have made here reflects comprhensive lack of understanding of the markets, the company and basic technical analysis. You bs chart service is a donkey suk too.
Cover your 50 shares already before you have to move out of your trailer rental and back in with your momma across the trailer park. LOL
I would not kill anyone, let alone a moron with the mind of an 8 year old holding out useless comments as if TPX is in deep trouble. LOL Yours are stupid comments, just perfectly ironic for calling me an idiot and reflecting the thoughts of a mindless dufus short from $36.
Laurence (not his dad Stanley) was pretty clear that he thinks japan will be a victory for the well connected, but getting resorts built and running is at least 5 years away, and hard to think anyone is discounting that... as said prior here, the street isn't even discounting that the increase in tables andmachines in Manila is as if MPEL will have two resorts coming on line there next year.
But at $37, back to the all time high, the stock is now breathing a little bit hard as is LVS given the uncertainties associated with Spain... we are on our biggest allocation and ready to put some box hedge back on into some likely chop before EOY.
As for WYNN? Love Steve and we've been on that several times in recent years, but his stated intent to develop resorts in rust belt cities in the U.S. harkens back to yesteryear ideas as we see it... we like the idea of rapid growth arenas such as the known in Asian venues
As Hertz ads would say, "Not exactly"...
The HK shares trade in HK$, which currency is significantly less value per "$" than USD (aa with all currencies, that differential changes daily, but one US$ is worth roughly $2.60 HK$).
The HK exchange shares, as noted a few times here, tend to trade in call it generally irrelevant volume vs the ADR listed here in the US, closed at $94.50 today, up that $2.20 you referenced, but that was only 2.28% in HK$.
Here in the US, the ADR closed at $36.44 yesterday, up 1.93% or $.69. One doesn't need a currency converter to get to the math that if the U.S. shares trade up $36.57 (a "whopping" $.13), they will be pari passu with the HD exchange close.
Again, the correlation is tight between the ADR and the HK shares over time, but the HK shares are definitely not driving the valuation of the ADR over time... that is all about franchise power, management execution, and growth of ebitda/share.
Our PT remains $40 near term (our EOY 2013 PT was $30 when the stock was $12 a year ago, raised to $35 when the stock hit $25 on better than even we expected performance, and again to $40 as the stock ripped past $30 several weeks ago, but given the lockdowns (sell outs or box short hedges now) for 2013 incentive calcs in place now, the stock may drift sideways until the Dec results are reported. If not clear, we think $40 is still possible by EOY, but not "likely" until next month.
The bottom is in here... only thing left is upside into the real guidance update, pricing increase, and incremental store openings on top of the sandbagged guidance.
Nice to see the institutional buying today resulted in one of Woody Allen's socks stuffed full of horse dung being shoved down the moronic short bashers' throats here today.
Shorts are roadkill as my partner loves to quip.
Looks like a few hedge funds decided to get long with us here. How are those unhedged short trades from yesterday working out for the chumps here? LOL
wasting your time reading that bs... Motley Morons and the like are all wasted ink.
We wrote all you need to know about the playbook here yesterday.
If you know much about the key holders here, they aren't looking to the sell side, GS or anyone else, for analysis or advice, and if you read most of what passes for "analysis", it tends reads a lot like a summary of investment conference presentation slides. It takes more work than superficial power point gleening to develop ebitda modeling and growth curve shifts (e.g., such as what is coming up here with Manila), and t there is something to the guys looking like players in the resorts but actually hired consultants studying machine play, limits and play depth... Most of the pm sponsorship over the last two years is still here, staying in with offset shorts to protect the 2013 roic incentive comp driven by the run above $35 seen of late.
We've shared much of our trade in and around the core position here, and we know many have positioned similarly (except we pulled the hedge off here)... 2014 will be great, and no one managing serious capital allocated here gives a flyin Fick what GS publishes about the company.
agree with your points... i usually do not read any of the MF bs as it is almost never worth reading, and here I did based on the headline that MPEL is overvalued on a relative basis. That assertion is plain stupid and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the sector, Macau and MPEL's ongoing and very solid outperformance. MPEL desrves a rich premium multiple and despite the the outperformance, does yet even close to reflect what is happening in the coming quarters. All the better for us; this has enabled us to get to our largest ever allocation on the cheap.
We're long a bunch of DNKN largely on the menu expansion, growing margins, coffee victories AND ONLY THEN the geographical expansion west.
As for DNKN donuts, they suk compared to Krispy Kreme delights... and KKD is going to be just fine after all the retail selling is done and moronic, unhedged shorts finish impaling themselves. last Q this process took 5 days before the turnaround... this quarter will be quicker as people figure out that everything discounted about forward guidance (ss comps, revenue and new store openings) is VERY sandbagged vs what they will rollout.
Unhedged shorts are effd, just like we said in march about HLF at $38, and GMCR at $18 last year end. But who gives a flying F what morons do with their money... the smart folks are getting long here -- VERY long while the morons are selling/shorting.
You calling me dim bulb is F hilarious.
FY moron. See you up 20% before Christmas... you'll be on the f porch alright, with the puppies standing on newspaper #$%$ yourself. LOL