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Ancestry.com Inc. Message Board

squidunker008 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 26, 2014 1:49 PM Member since: Feb 18, 2008
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  • squidunker008 by squidunker008 Jun 26, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    Where is the bottom? This makes little sense unless a deep pocket is planning a take-under and short selling down before the "offer". Manny may actually be in on this. The company is essentially half cash! One gets a decent and known "Brand".name for a buck and a half.
    Something screwy going on now. News in the month or two forward could be interesting. Can not stay secret much longer. Afraid, however, by this price action it may not be nice or at least totally above board and ethical.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • squidunker008 squidunker008 Jun 24, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    Thank you for this post. I missed this news. Positive news. With reduced share count the earnings may set up for a beat for the year, judged against the April guidance where they reduced the earnings outlook.
    Nice P.R. release today on contracts signed deals they set up the past 9 months.
    I may buy a little more on this pullback.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • There is a lot of chatter that Steve Birkhold's stock sale and exit means the worst for BEBE shareholders. Not necessarily so. The interim CEO is a hired gun, has his own successful consulting company. Those of us who lived deep in the "corporate world" know that with the past quarter's report (which could be a "flush out", and the "strategic alternatives" the company is to look at - there may have been no future spot for Steve. hee did his job. The company did not state yet whether he got or negotiated an "exit package".
    These developments, along with Manny's age tell us that this company will be sold or acquired. Manny is obviously focused on that fact now and will give up his baby for a decent price.
    The company may not sell for over $7.00, but you can be sure it will be over the current price. The risk/reward looks good now. This stock will be dangerous to short from here as news of a sale, or interest in a sale, could arise at any time. If you own it and are depressed, at worst hold. If you have animal spirits - buy. Look at $5.00 to $7.00 as the sale price to private equity. With the companies cash, this is a classic Private equity play. They will offer a nice premium, load the company with cheap debt, pay themselves an immediate dividend, and long holders go away with up to double what the company shares trade for today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A suggestion

    by tibco_monkey May 16, 2014 4:12 PM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 May 17, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    Did it months ago. I still have this pink sheet stuff from SIRF, but any and all further purchases and sales have been the more liquid ADR CSRE.
    I use that Board and skip posting on this.

  • squidunker008 squidunker008 May 15, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    I am with you.. Over 38 years as a private investor in stocks I self- mange, I have become disillusioned to the " focus only on the growth" MBA way to run companies. that is why stocks take stairs up and elevators down. I always want a little reward today for my risk of personal capital. Simply buying back stocks only further increases the out of control granting of management stock options. When they execute, we all loose some of that Treasury cash. I feel the overconcentration on buybacks suckers the personal private investor and forces us to think mostly short tem - as management and "stock Professionals" do. This practice. with options, is a major reason why executive compensation is out of control and why so many stocks make round trips up then back down to start over 5 -6 years. We saw 'the Lost Decade" on many. Good dividends from here on will prop the nice share prices we have gained to in 2013 -"put" a floor under share price declines.
    Pro money managers are in the same game as management of the companies. That is why we get no where on getting control of management compensation.
    Hopefully you voted all your spring proxies and voted "no" on the management compensation and incentive plans. few fund managers will!!

    "the Squid'

  • Reply to

    Not much respect for Zacks upgrade

    by tibco_monkey Apr 23, 2014 9:58 AM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 May 4, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Or the new downgrade. The day Zacks downgrades from strong but to sell, the decline in stock price flattens out, then inches upward the next day!

  • Reply to

    What does AZN have that Pfizer wants ?

    by fastball.7777 May 2, 2014 12:53 PM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 May 2, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    A chance for PFE management to be awarded a big bonus year end for doing a deal - even thought screws we shareholders. I was in Pfizer for years. As of 2000, all executive management consistently masked poor performance and skill by these "deals' to flush out accounting holds. They call it "a big event" on the inside and use the mergers to write off and claim years of accounting write-offs they needed to take. it all goes in the bucket within a year post merger. result + board gives big bonuses. Just watch. Their bean counters current and past know what I am talking about. They hit all the plants for sure with the nonsense.

  • Reply to

    Looks like capitulation at last

    by tibco_monkey Apr 30, 2014 11:13 AM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 May 1, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    2014 looks like a coin toss. 1Q Gross revenue was way down and attributed to the luck of one time non-recurring sales that occurred in China in 2013. They said this was expected! Makes you wonder who bought the stock in February in the 50's knowing that.
    looks OK for Q2 with revenue normalizing, though their base business stagnated 1Q also - down 11 % from last year. Maybe world economy is truly turning a leg down. margins however looked beautiful, but this market rewards gross revenue (at all price) and is not rewarding efficiency and margin growth as much. A flip from the 90's! I think the stock is safe at $35. They have an expected growth rete in the low 20's, probably changing to high teens.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Looks like capitulation at last

    by tibco_monkey Apr 30, 2014 11:13 AM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 Apr 30, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    The gaps down can take 3 to 58 days to work to a bottom. I did add this afternoon to replace what was sold in February. If we go to $35, I will add more. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • squidunker008 squidunker008 Apr 30, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    Agreed. They could also continue and sweeten generous dividends. Looks like we wait for a Samsung recovery - a big customer. Samsung's earnings were poor, for them, the past quarter. They got hammered in Korea two weeks ago. The suppliers follow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Is it game over?

    by squidunker008 Apr 7, 2014 9:54 AM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 Apr 14, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    With the coming blood moon - you may be prophetic. The pre-market bid/ask today, Monday 4/14 is showing that we may see the BEBE stock price up today 50 cents or more. Solidly in the mid- 6's. let's see. Good luck.

  • squidunker008 by squidunker008 Apr 10, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    This chat board is dead. It was more fun when Trudy was in charge of the company.

  • squidunker008 by squidunker008 Apr 7, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    BEBE stock has now given back the entire "premium" or "pop" in share price that was attributable to the news and intent of the company to sell itself. $6.00 is pretty much the where these shares stabilized over the past year based on Steve Birkhold's arrival, his "turnaround plan", the no debt and $1.90 cash in the treasury situation. The market has now finished a big yawn and has gone to sleep on BEBE. No news = sleepy time.

  • squidunker008 by squidunker008 Mar 10, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    The ADRs had an interesting open to trading today. Down 4% on real tiny, puttsy trading. Tiny "odd lots" of very few trades. Being a contrarian, I feel this may be a market maker wanting to throw around few tiny lowball buys to worry potential sellers and profit takers that it is "game over". It may be that someone wants to buy a nice block of shares today/tomorrow. I have seen this before for small cap accumulation. Do not be surprised to see some trades down (very small volumes) early morning - only to have a big trade or two near east coast lunch time then again about 3:00 PM within the $13 - 13.50 range. Carry on of good bids tomorrow likely. Funds and bigger players buy on Monday/Tuesday in a no new news environment for an appreciating stock.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    You guys sure don't post much here..

    by freshbone1 Mar 3, 2014 11:38 PM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 Mar 5, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    I agree, but the stock is now priced for 15 - 20% growth for 3 years, and the rearview margins are mediocre. Sales look good, though no rearview PE. The next earnings report will be a big thing to support this current price - and it would be nice if they announce a dividend above 60 cents a share May on these ADRs. They are cash flow positive and have that Samsung money from the shares in the Treasury.
    The technology is right there in the populist groove of mobile/personal Bluetooth with location. Hot for current speculation. if Samsung gets a little more in bed with CSR, its off to the races.
    With all said, I did take a little off the table yesterday to pay myself for 2011's risk taking.
    I still have every CSRXF share I got in the SIRF acquisition.
    good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    You guys sure don't post much here..

    by freshbone1 Mar 3, 2014 11:38 PM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 Mar 4, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Hey Freshbone. I monitor this as I own and preferred the ADR instead of the "pink sheet" listing for CSR that I got from SIRF. To date - I am just enjoying the 540 % ride I got on these ADRs bought 4 years ago.
    See you on the CSRXF board CSRXF board. Honestly, this stock moved too far too fast. I am worried and may take some profit.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SUCKERS BUYING A 3 DOLLAR STOCK HERE!!!!!!!

    by johnrizzi643 Feb 27, 2014 1:52 PM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 Feb 27, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    They are not suckers or investors buying today. This is simply a "short squeeze" with the smart shorts closing out . There is so little stock to borrow that to continue shorting could mean watching the stock continue a sharp upward march for a few more days. There is a lot of shares that need to be "covered" and it will get expensive by mid-week for any short that waits until next week to cover. Nice and orderly though.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Bebe Shopping Itself to Private Equity ??

    by banana_split_52 Feb 8, 2014 2:14 AM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 Feb 10, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    I am no expert, since emotion and pride of ownership can come in to play. The key positive is no current debt - so PE can load it on and will to immediately pay themselves.
    A negative is the current cash flow, meaning the clock is ticking. If you use very simple and stupid metrics, great deals for PE can be made with price to book at 2.5. That implies a stock price offer of $7.50 almost guaranteed. If you look at price to sales - having your company at 2.0 is acceptable. That could imply a final acceptable price near $12.00.
    I will split down the middle and look for $9.50 to $10.00. This could be a very friendly deal - that tempers my price guest. Yet, with no debt, bidders may come forward and compete for that brand name you speak of - and a sell to demographic they can grow up with (current younger woman who want to look hot, that of course will age to trying to look hot - and ride that groups purchase aspiration for a decade).

    Good luck

  • Reply to

    Bebe Shopping Itself to Private Equity ??

    by banana_split_52 Feb 8, 2014 2:14 AM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 Feb 8, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    This move makes sense. I posted a reply to a post on this board on Thursday AM. about trading this stock and someday a buyout. Manny Moshouf, the founder, still owns 60 % of the stock. He is in his 70s. His company has lost it's edge and his vision of 20 years ago is no longer hot. He may want to divest - even for estate planning reasons. He does not need the aggravation, or risk, of riding a "full turnaround". To sell out at 5-25 thousands shares a month will be a drag on the stock and take forever.
    Steve Birkhold was likely hired by Manny with full expectations to get Bebe somehow in shape for Manny' and his equity to exit.
    Steve is 51. Arranging a good deal for Bebes sale would be a nice career accomplishment - worth just as much to his professional reputation as completing a "turnaround". He will be rewarded. Steve will get millions in bonus, immediate full vesting of all stock options and incentive compensation for the deal by Manny and maybe the buyers - plus the buyers could incentivize him to stay on and mange the place or be a partner in the group. Steve wins, Manny wins, current shareholders are relieved, and Bebe moves on with private equity doing aggressive financial engineering, rationalization of stores and the business. All then outside of the trappings of a public company where shorts, public disclosure requirements, and others who may prey on the business and interfere, being neutralized and pushed out of the game.
    This is all probably mostly around Manny Mosauf retiring from retail and getting the best dollar he can for his baby - or shall I say his BEBE - as he moves to a new phase of life. I wish Manny, Steve, and shareholders success I will be hanging in for the ride. No way I cannot make money on BEBE shares, now, in the next 18 months.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Management and the Board

    by jbktl61 Jan 21, 2014 1:22 AM
    squidunker008 squidunker008 Feb 7, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    Except when the elderly founder owns over half the stock and will call the shots. So change will be slow - but they will survive until a buyout. That is why one owns the stock, but trades in and out of a portion of the position as it fluctuates in the $4 to $8 channel almost yearly.
    Your short will hurt today since they did better than expected. We may go to $6 this month.

    Sentiment: Hold

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