Saudi can only supply 10% of the market demand. At $20, Bakken crude will simply shut down as it takes $20 to get it to market and lifting costs are about $10. Oil sands and isolated deepwater would also shut down as even lifting and transport costs exceed the market price. This will cause an incredible shortage of oil and prices will correct. While $100 or even $70 may have been too high, the current targets of $20 and $30 make no sense whatsoever. $40 for a limited time is definitely possible though.
I agree that it is crazy to sell here. Not buying more though as I kept averaging down until I hit my limit for an individual position. AFAICS, they are fine for 2015 and even early 2016 due to the backlog but will need good oil prices after that to continue to do get decent dayrates and to stay in business. That is still a long way off and, as we have seen, just 3 months can cause a sea change in oil prices. We just need the next sea change to be in the opposite direction. Given the reduction in supplies next year due to the current drilling cuts, I don't that is unreasonable to expect a return to somewhat higher prices (though probably not $100/bbl).
The costs of shipping Bakken crude to the refineries is about $19/bbl and lifting costs alone there are $10/bbl. Hence, there should be no oil coming out of Bakken at oil prices below $30/bbl and this will result in a more than 1 million bbl/day production drop. Hence, $30/bbl has to be the absolute possible minimum indicating we are not that far off at the current rate of decline. I personally think $40/bbl is a more reasonable minimum but we will have to wait and see.
The 700th patient for the PRESENT trial is expected to be recruited by the end of this month and over-enrollment should be completed by March. They reiterated guidance for about $9 million in revenue for 2014 or approximately $3 million in Q4. They also stated that they expect interim data by end of this year or early next year for the PRESENT trial which is a bit later than I expected. Overall, it looks like everything is going okay.
Especially since they already got 5 million at the initiation of the deal. Cash burn is not that crazy AFAIK. This just seems to be mind games by the shorts.
Actually I wrote a ton of puts that will expire next week and I plan to hold the shares. My average price for the shares will be 1.78 which I wouldn't have believed was possible when the price was 3. Gale is a steal at these prices and I will be holding at least until the completion of enrollment news for Neuvax comes in.
Warren Buffett would definitely not have said that. If you look at his investments, many have gone up well over 100% and some even over 1000% and his motto is to generally buy and hold "forever". In general, it is better to let your winners run and cut your losers (something which would have benefited me but which I have found too difficult to follow) but 10% is too small a drop to decide your losers as simple market volatility could get a stock down that much easily.
That is HK$120mm, not US$. That works out to about US$15-16 million so the cash is not really all that much.
Yeah, It does seem like an asymmetric bet given the accounting info but I have lost all faith in management. I still have a very few shares left on which I had written covered calls expiring in Jan. and I might keep them if they are not called away just in case the 56% of FL's value not given away somehow makes it back to NQ. Heh, if it goes back to 20 I might even make back most of my loss :).
Why not choose any of a number of better or much lower market cap HK companies to do that deal? The HK stock market is full of small and highly undervalued companies. You could throw a dart at a list of small cap HK firms, pay 10 times their market value for the merger and still end up with a far better deal. What puzzles me about Tack was that its valuation even 3 months ago was beyond absurd for a generally undervalued market with an abundance of cheap stocks. How it got that way is something I would love to know.
I held through the whole series of debacles but this has made the scales fall off my eyes. Tack's valuation is beyond insane for a small time unprofitable apparel retailer listed in HK. Look at Texhong (2678.hk) for an idea of what Tack's market should be getting you in the textile business for a HK listed firm - 100x Tack's revenue with a P/E of 3-4, a dividend yield close to 10% and still a market cap less than Tack's.
Thanks for the support, pjmyers. It always helps to have a sympathetic audience for both success and failure.
You are right that overconfidence is definitely the key!
Also, needless to say, I was heavily helped by those on this board in the research on QCOR and by others in the research on BRK. I would be much poorer, both materially and intellectually, if not for this great board (both QCOR and MNK) without which I would definitely have been scared off by the shorts as did happen to me with STX (did good DD and research on it but the shorts' price manipulation got to me - would have been my first homerun otherwise).
I am somewhat surprised to see maxdad supporting NQ on the yahoo boards but I think he seems to be more misguided rather than manipulative. I still remember how useful his support for QCOR was in the initial days. (Or maybe I am going to be finally wrong on selling NQ but I doubt it.)
I must admit I got fully taken in on this and put about 1.5% of my portfolio into it but after yesterday's reverse merger announcement for FL mobile it is clear that there is something seriously wrong with the firm.
I have been doing some research on the firm that NQ is using to perform a reverse merger in Hong Kong (Tack Fiori) and, however I look at it, it stinks to high heaven. When there are many HK stocks trading well under 10 P/E and paying good dividends to boot, Tack Fiori is trading at an astounding 25x revenues, particularly for a small time apparel retailer which only emerged from bankruptcy three years ago. Its intrinsic value IMO is essentially zero in relation to NQ/FL (assuming that their business figures are accurate). This means that NQ is essentially giving away 40% of FL to Tack shareholders for nothing in the best case scenario. I cannot see how this can possibly end well for NQ shareholders even if the business is fundamentally sound.
The stock popped AH when the deal was announced but I was unfortunately asleep at the time or I could have dumped my shares once I looked up Tack's past annual reports.
Anyway, looking through my investing results this year it looks like I should have just adopted a KISS approach and done a lot better. Great profits in BRK and QCOR/MNK, two of the positions I did the most research on and had the most confidence in, heavily brought down by poor results elsewhere (at least I beat the S&P but I should have been trouncing it and not pipping it at the post). Some of those poor results I think have a good chance of working out well in the future but some like NQ make me wonder what I was thinking at the time.
Yes, I managed to sell Jan '16 5 strike puts for 0.90 yesterday! That is over a twenty percent return if it doesn't get exercised or BBEP at roughly half the current depressed priced. I seriously doubt BBEP goes bankrupt given their hedges but a cut or even elimination of their distribution is possible. I don't think the price goes below 4 in that scenario.
Shorts really seem desperate to paint the tape.
Why the heck are my replies getting deleted? Search for offshore energy today on the web and you will find the article.