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Arbor Realty Trust Inc. Message Board

srsmgja 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 28, 2014 7:39 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    I don't understand the new offering at all

    by jrad52 Feb 20, 2014 6:53 PM
    srsmgja srsmgja Feb 28, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    correction to last post --

    the new CLOs advance about 70%

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I don't understand the new offering at all

    by jrad52 Feb 20, 2014 6:53 PM
    srsmgja srsmgja Feb 28, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    I'm holding and adding over time on dips. Allow me to address your valid concerns:

    1. Abr has already received the FULL economic value in that property. They have no control over the timing, but there is a chance they will be able to book the additional value in June. Its only a timing issue, they will eventually add that 1.70 to BV.

    2. The CDO's are collapsing ahead of schedule. They expect another 400M of run off this year. The limits their growth because they must keep the money until the next quarter before recovering any trapped equity. So they lose part of the quarter of interest from the runoff. The good news is that as they re-deploy the funds its sets them up for 2015. At some point the market will start to anticipate, and the price should appreciate. 2015 and 2016 should be very good years for earnings and dividend growth. In the interim I will happy to pocket my 8% divi.

    3. You are correct, the new CLOs advance about 30%. Although they seem to be very nicely increasing their interest spreads as they re-deploy the CDO funds, so I assume they will still make a good return, although not with the same leverage as in the past.

    4. They are externally managed but they have been looking into bringing management in house. I suspect, that scenario will eventually occur.

    5. Re. growing their loan portfolio - I believe just a timing issue esp. around year end holidays. On the early Feb call they had already done 100M of new loans

    Sentiment: Buy

6.99+0.02(+0.29%)12:01 PMEDT

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