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The Madison Square Garden Company Message Board

ssam 322 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2014 2:32 AM Member since: Dec 17, 1997
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  • Sinopec is the sister company of CNNOC, just posted a gain of 8% on sales, stock price went up 2% here it is the news brief:
    China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (386), Asia’s biggest refiner, reported an 8 percent gain in first-half oil and gas production as overseas output doubled.
    The stock gained 1.9 percent to HK$7.36 in Hong Kong trading as at 10:49 a.m. local time, the biggest gain since June 26. The city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 1.1 percent.

    I am expecting the 1.5% increase in US side as well.

    anyway, this is stock you can hold for long time because there is no competitors in where they sell.

  • For projected profit of 0.85, this stock is now valued at trailing P/E of 25-26. It is way above the P/E corning has, which has a track record of delivery. So I say this stock is over bought, it should be at 15-16 P/E vs current 19 Corning has.

  • It is un-justifiable that CEO has such a low P/E vs XOM. In fact CEO will be growing faster with much more then it did. I also project to see the dividend increase and share buy back. so it will ride high in next few months

  • HTHT mainly run serviceable business hotel in China, but it growth will be significantly slowed in next few years unless they can figure out different business model.
    1) They run out of members to join in. In past, they hand out $20-$40 membership to target business traveler, the strategy is successful. But the hotel is running out of gas on their capability of attract new members as most people who want it already has it. It will cut the growth significantly.
    2) The management has expanded their business to both high end and low end of the market by adding some 4 star or 2 star like hotels. This diluted their brand and the number of expansion will be slowed to many level since most top tier business spot has already been taken.
    3) The hotel service is deteriorating, trust me on this since I have stopped use their service. Some facilities I have stayed are really in bad shape. Their Service is still good though, but so is their competitor's.
    4) Chinese Government has started cracking down on the excess wast of traveling, and many business traveler will face cutting down their spending. The hotel customer group is moving towards more casual traveler.
    5) Find a hotel business analysis. The best hotel fill-in rate is highest in 4 star, with 72%. both 5 stars and 3 stars are declining. Hanting's hotels are mainly in 3 star range.
    6) this hotel chain is over valued because they do not own a lot of their facilities. those facilities are mainly joined in like franchised business, so Hanting does not own land and building, which is typically a reason a hotel chain is high on P/E.

    I would short this stock to 24 or less.

  • Another day of lose for MSG, total market value lost is 35 Mil.
    This stock will be in the $29 within 2 weeks. I am so glad I shorted it and still hold the short position.

  • Reply to

    SELL _MSG

    by mattlenner May 15, 2012 7:35 PM
    ssam ssam Jul 18, 2012 2:10 PM Flag

    Here is how Jlin’s value tired to MSG stock:
    1) From 2010 Jan ( MSG listed day) to Feb 2012, MSG stock value increased 35%, NASDQ value increased 32%. If you make a graphic of the value increase, you can see the 2 almost overlap.
    2) from Mid 2012 (Linsanity starts) to July 1 2012 (Free agent starts), MSG increased 30% and NASDQ increased only 2%. If MSG has no other business grow significantly out pace market, they should be same as NASDQ, but it did not. So it is safe to say Lin had brought 25-28% stock increase for MSG stock.
    3) From July 1. 2012 (Free Agency starts) to now, NASDQ stays almost same but MSG dropped over 8%
    4) In the last 3 days ( starting Monday when possibility of not sign Lin), NASDQ increased 1.5% and MSG dropped 1.5%, a difference of over 3 %. So, instead of following NASDQ of increase shareholder value of 80 Mil, the stock actually lost over 80 Mil of share holder value.
    5) with P/E over 30 for MSG, it is still over the hill compare to it’s regular P/E in history, short it and you make enough money for you to fly from NYC to Houston for watching Lin’s game!

  • ssam ssam Jul 18, 2012 3:33 AM Flag

    What does it has to do with MSG stock? For what I am concern now is how much I can make with Linsanity is out of NYC. I placed 5000 share short on Sunday and covered on Mondy, so I made about $3800 with few key stroke. They I bought another put option with small amount of moeny from that profit, which I expect will be wine me big. This is more fun then play lottery because you know it is sure win.

  • ssam ssam Jul 18, 2012 3:28 AM Flag

    CP is not going to Knicks. Who want to play with teammates who back-stab and self-centered or Jealously minded bunch of losers?

  • Reply to

    Lin Effect...

    by richmorehk Jul 17, 2012 10:58 AM
    ssam ssam Jul 17, 2012 5:18 PM Flag

    will drop 10-20% more in 2 weeks. already 80 Mil is gone out of window for the share holder in last 2 days

  • Reply to

    MSG going to be slammed tomorrow.

    by ironmonkey6f6 Jul 17, 2012 10:27 AM
    ssam ssam Jul 17, 2012 5:17 PM Flag

    You saw the bid and ask ratio? I project a major drop of 20% in 2 weeks

  • Without the Linsanity, MSG will lose a lot of revenue and profit, in TV advertise, Jershey sales, ticket sales, corporate endorsement from Multinationals and Chinese companies. Even Time Warner is in better position to bargain to cut MSG off the cable network again. I say the current stock price is 30-35% over valued. Another issues is their new renovation will be loaded with debt, but now it has to pay the interest. Bottom line, short it and cover it with 20% lower in 2 weeks!

  • With the extreme hot weather this year, the real good earning will come out in 3Q. Look forward to it now!

  • Reply to

    Why Ng Dominic is selling?

    by wayneli Apr 14, 2011 9:55 AM
    ssam ssam May 23, 2011 3:23 PM Flag

    Inside selling is never a good indicator of anything, except the seller sells a large percentage of his/her holding. There are many reasons for people to sell: tax, allocation of assets, family issues ( marriage, school. etc)
    In any case, the internal sell should be incorporated with other factors to be considered as negative, which I do not see here.
    I am more worried about the long term recovering trend in main street economics. The main street does not seems to support the wall street, hence the normal recover of stock ahead of real economics seems not working here this time. Investors are losing the patient if the real recovery does not show up soon.

  • Reply to

    commercial loan

    by ssam Mar 31, 2011 5:40 PM
    ssam ssam Apr 27, 2011 9:22 PM Flag

    The deposit increase will allow bank to make more money at the lending side. That is their core business. Looks like they have a 3% increase in core besides the better loan portfolio quality. The real effect on their earning is the trade finance deals those account brought in, which is about 10% more. The trade finance deal normally are in shorter term and more profitable then commercial real estate loan and the transaction fee tends to be very high.
    In any case, based on the new earning, the forward P/E is under 15. I wonder why is stock price dropped. So I will pick up another 2000 shares tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Why is gilead down today (4/5/2011)

    by sshamba4 Apr 5, 2011 12:30 PM

    I don't see any reason there. Over all, GILD is already in lower end of the valuation with it's current P/E. I had never recall they are in such low P/E in past, it is pure caused by market playing down. Compare to other BioPham, I think this stock is no where to go but up. so don't be disturbed by daily fluctuation as many institution investors are in and out for day trading.

  • leads the opportunity for COL? There must be some intensified purchase on equipments to detect the metal crack? Any one familiar with this?

  • With Chinese government's ambitious on build large airplane, I wonder if COL is on the supplier's list. Last time I had checked, GE, Honeywell and few others are winner of the first round bid for the contractor. I am wondering if anyone had source to verify if COL is also in the process of second round bid for control systems.

  • Reply to

    Why dipping?

    by robtep Apr 4, 2011 1:40 PM

    No particular reason. Actually it created a chance of buying opportunity. Rumor has it, the Chinese government entity is on the market for buying the resource in Auz again, BTU is a perfect fit for them to own due to the domestic demand and stronger currency. I won't worry about much for the current price.

  • With the consolidation to an end, EWBC has a lot of leverage on their lost reserve. The deposit is going up due to many Chinese coming to US to buy homes and real estate, EWBC also started to open Chinese currency business, which will lead quick growth in accounts added and the service fee charged. I saw a lot of people flee to EWBC due to large banks start to charge fee for checking account. Will see next quarter report jump up on revenue and profit.

    way to go!

  • Reply to

    Banks in China are Among the Worst-run

    by silverlinj Feb 14, 2011 1:53 PM
    ssam ssam Mar 31, 2011 5:35 PM Flag

    If you are not ignorant, you are just an idiot. Name a single consumer/commercial bank in China that offers no online service? In fact the bank in China are in far advanced in online safety compare to what US bank has. Almost all banks in China use two layer security system, which requires a USB disc and online password to log into an account. Based on US bank internal control standard, most Chinese bank faired higher score. You should see how many Chinese banks are in the fortune 500 list before you blindly blame anyone.

MSG
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