Don't be carried away by a typo. If you have my level of English in any other language, You wouldn't become a loser buying BABA.
Not really. Unlike BABA, Baidu was listed long before it reaches the peak of business. And they had never been able to get the publicity of BABA with all the media hike.
When you buy a company's stock, you better know it's owner's history and test company's product service yourself. This is the old man's wisdom. Ask Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch for it. I had repeatedly tell everone here to sell this stock, not because I hold any short position of this stock, but I am a user of Alibaba and Taobao, so I know how lousy both of them are. As a Chinese who immigrated to US and importing merchant from China, I have number of suppliers been contacted by Alibaba for listing their products on the website, with crazy amount of fee. Some of the companies bought their idea and did pay the fee (mostly happened in last 10 years). But they also #$%$ off the annual renew fee does not bring new customer to cover the cost. So many of them started to drop off. There are only so many of export companies in China and Alibaba probably had contacted them all, so Ma know that Alibaba is at the peak of it's market position. he deliberately de-listed his company in Hong Kong stock exchange, manufactured a sophisticated VIE structure (HK stock exchange does not allow it), then come to US for listing. As for taobao, I had purchased 12 items from it while I was in China, 3 of them comes fake and 5 others are in bad quality. There is almost no check and balance in Taobao, their created a system makes buyer so frustration so you give up the claim. It is obvious that government is on their neck to push for better control. In fact, the Chinese congress is in it's session now, and they are proposing the law aimed at e-commerce. Being the largest e-commerce company in China, BABA will eat it's pill soon.
If you have not heard anything about Jack Ma's personal story, I suggest you ask any senior employee in Yahoo, they will tell you how Jack Ma banked on Yahoo's investment and rip them off in investment return.
It is reported that during the Chinese new year, Total number of "red envelope" hand out from Tencent is 10 Billion while BABA recorded a 2.5 Billion. This means BABA is losing it's foot hold on electronic payment front to Tencent in a big way.
Whoever trust Jack Horse = loser. I am laughing at those who trying to pump BABA stocks here in Yahoo. Better work hard to recover your lose. I told u jack horse sells fakes and low quality products, how can you trust him.
Here is a list of funds who had dumped BABA share in market in last months: Appaloosa Management、Eton Park Capital Management、 Highfields Capital Management和Omega Advisors。Viking Global Investors , Maverick Capital
I hope those who hold long really think hard. The fund managers know more about the company than average Joe investor.
Once again, I do not hold any position of BABA long or short. Just a statement of fact.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
BABA makes money because almost all of it's seller accounts do not pay personal tax and VAT tax. In China, the VAT tax is 17%. this is the major factor merchant can be sold cheaper on BABA compare to elsewhere (shabby products also helps). Now due to large number of transaction on BABA has made local stores losing revenue and tax paid to local government, sooner or later, the local store owners will rebel and form an alliance to force government looking into it.
Have you ever been in China? billion+ population not even buying on line? Geeee!
How slow you think Chinese mobile market is? Taobao has over 0.5 Bil registered accounts, which is to say besides the old grandma/grandpa and those who is not 16 years old yet, most adult has a taobao account. You think Jack Ma is that stupid not to wait until reaching the peak of business development to get listed? I bet you probably don't know there are also close to half of the population in China live in poor remote area, where they have no access of express delivery and practically only has money to get buy daily life.
Amazon is already in China and they are using a special econ development region in Shanghai as a base to develop their business. BABA is facing the competition from Amazon and Jindong.
I had wrote an piece to outline why you should not buy and hold BABA. If you plan to ride the hype of BABA, this is not for you, but if you want to hold BABA for investment, I must warn you the character of a CEO at the company you invest in is an important issue to deal with.
Let me tell you a story about Ma and BABA on how do they treat their institution investor. Yahoo for some reason, invested in BABA few years ago. At the time, BABA was not making money and Ma was worried about his cash flower and survival of busting internet bubble era. Ma contacted Jerry Yang and asked for cash investment. Yang of Yahoo agreed to invest in Ma's BABA, not only with cash, but also chipped in Yahoo China. Ma took over Yahoo China but basically let the operation dead itself, he used resources he got to develop his own business. BABA's big moment came when they launched zhifubao(the Chinese version of paypal). When zhifubao become the most profitable division, Ma tried every thing to privatize it. zhifubao eventually been spanned off from BABA, without giving any benefit to Yahoo. So Jack Ma drove Yahoo out of Zhifubao and paid Yahoo nothing. If Ma is willing to take advantage of his institution investor, what do you think he is up to when he has conflict to small investor? BTW, he did that VIE deal for any reason? think about!
who is the big loser here? I clearly stated I do not hold any position of BABA, long or short. If you do not know how to read, I have no sympathy for L os er like you. Go to buy BABA if you like and hope you ended shirtless next month. :)
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I do not need to tell billion shopper, I am the taobao user and I did my buying and selling on it, except I pretty much stopped using it now. Among 15 items I purchased, 2 were fakes and 3 were returned due to quality problem. It was 1/3 of the total merchant I purchased has problem. People will sooner or later lost their experiment with dis-honest sellers. BABA is in a lose-lose situation now, and they make their stock shareholder lose with them. The one who laugh is the one who did not lose money over BABA stock.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Disclaimer: I do not own any share of BABA, short or long. and I used all BABA's service to do the purchase or sourcing.
BABA's business is not sustainable for the following reason:
BABA's growth rate will hit a wall. BABA's business consist of 3 parts: Taobao, Tmall and Alibaba. Alibaba is slow in growth because their main revenue are Chinese companies who wish to list their products on Alibaba for bulk export. Alibaba charges each company for a fee each year, they also charge those company a one time fee for making the website. Most export companies has already paid that one time fee in China, so Alibaba lost this one time charge in future. It is even worse that more and more companies choice to cancel their list due to lack of new customer. Taobao is the high growth division for BABA. Taobao is the Chinese e-bay. The Chinese population bought Jack Ma's hype in last 5 years for sell on taobao and become instant rich story. It is true that in the beginning some people made money by selling in taobao. But the problem came as many selling parties start to sell fake or low quality products. If Jack Ma is willing to fight the fake product, he will lose revenue by shutting down some stores, this is why you see him unwilling to do so, but he is forced to do it, with BABA's huge legal fee waiting and government agency's crack down. The worse part is that many store owners are not making any money in the past few years due to competition, so they started selling low quality products. This #$%$ buyers off, so this is why you see BABA can not maintain current customer base grow. As for Tmall, they mirror the business model of Amazon, except that Tmall has 3 competitors. Jindong which is also listed here in US has it's own supply chain system is coming strong as winner for this type of business. Amazon is landing in China and grow strong. The other companies, namely Baidu and tencent is forming a JV and they will be in this category to compete with Jack Ma.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Per Chinese Media, A company based in shenzhen running some trouble with Alibaba because they publicly criticized Alibaba. In stead of going through legal channel for civic law suit, BABA requested police in it's headquarter to travel all the way to shenzhen and interrogated the employee of that company in Shenzhen. it is very obvious that BABA's intention was to have the employee arrested. However, that strategy backed fired at BABA, so the local media get involved and found out police from BABA's headquarter location (City of Hangzhou) did not follow through a normal legal step. The company who criticized BABA may file a complaint to the police authority in China for illegal using police force.