Nice call on the $4 this week. They will do $100,000,000 in Rev in calendar 2015. Trading at $240,000,000 market cap. Company is an easy double from here.
Guidance has been ratcheted so far back, that APPS is now ready to exceed expectations. Should be 5 by the June report and then straight up from there.
I'd prefer GILD at $200 tomorrow, but this really is a good scenario. Look, the numbers are there, and the money is rolling in. GILD is taking the money they earn and buying stock with it. If the stock is below true value (which we/I believe it is), this is effectively compounding our return. Sure the naysayers are going to be out there forecasting a slowing of growth, eventually, but so much money is going to come over the transom before then.
This merger completion is good news. These guys continue to ratchet forward. In 10 days we'll have revised combined company guidance. My guess is the numbers will command a much higher valuation.
Let's say you are an Express Scripts customer, but you and your doctor want/need Harvoni. I'm understand that there is an exception protocol that you can navigate to get GILD's drug. The question is... What price does ESRX pay? Full price? That'd be awesome.
Has anyone analyzed the bonus/promotion press release? Is it right in line? Perhaps a little more generous than usual? Scaled back? It seems to me that the bonuses would not have been awarded without regard to the 4th quarter.
Two weeks till we all presumably get $102. If you make a 1.40 on 100.60 in two weeks, that's 36% annualized. Seems to me that's a pretty good return, even if you have to borrow money.
Friday we have more prescription numbers. Tuesday we have GILD at JPM in San Francisco. Not to mention a couple more shots on goal before they report the 4th Quarter. There are plenty of catalysts in the next month. Trend is our friend and let the good times roll.
As far as I know, we haven't really heard from GILD yet. There is a very good chance they have a compelling strategy for ESRX and the future. But, even if they don't... you can be sure they will have a good spin. GILD is very seasoned and capable of articulating their position. I expect nothing less.
So, we have JP Morgan in early January and their annual report in early Feb. This is going to be top issue and GILD will be ready. Meanwhile, the prescriptions and the dough is going to continue to roll in. Oh... what to do with all that cash?