End of July... under $100. There is nothing that is going to rally this stock. Sure, there might be a couple of up days, even in a row. But this thing got way over inflated, and reality is settling in. This is a very mediocre drug with repelling side effects.
3 billion? 2 billion? 1 billion? How much diarrhea do they have to sell to reach each level? Click on their website... nothing in pipeline but diarrhea.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
This stock is in a death spiral. Only buyers are short covers and day-traders trying to scalp a few pennies. Nobody in their right mind thinks this drug is worth $4 billion.
Dude, the whole point of beating the market is knowing when the market cap is out of whack. Either too high or too low. Again, it's backasswards logic to use the market cap to justify the market cap. "Of course Puma deserves a market cap of $4.3 billion... it has a market cap of $4.3" is the most meaningless thing you can say in investing. I think this drug eventually gets approved. But, it causes debilitating diarrhea, and doctors are going to be reluctant to prescribe it. Also, better medicines and therapy are right around the corner. No way will they sell $500,000,000 of this #$%$ in one year, let alone every year into the future, which is what it would take rationalize this valuation.
Does anybody think GILD comes in under $3 in Q2. No way! 3 bucks in the bag for the quarter and 12 bucks for the year. Even if zero growth from here (unlikely), what kind of multiple do you put on a $12 perpetuity (GILD) in a 2% risk free rate world? I'll give you a hint. The math formula is: C/r.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
and diarrhea. The squirts are really hitting the fan now. Please tell me how you rationalize a $1 billion valuation? That's a $30 stock price. Could be below $100 before the end of the month.
Thank you for the thoughtful reply. The issue here isn't binary... either the drug gets approved or it doesn't, either the next news is positive or negative. Nope, the issue is... even if everything goes perfectly for PBYI, at your wildest dreams, what kind of value do you put on a cancer drug (with side effects) that may help you live a couple months longer. Well, not $3.6 billion... especially with so much wood to chop before it might actually get approval. There are much better drugs in the collective pipeline not that far behind that will make PBYI obsolete in short order... again, even if everything goes as best as you can hope.