The only way I see GB staying in the EU is if Parliament ignores the popular vote and instead votes to remain. There are enough signatures on a re-vote petition to require parliament to discuss it on the floor, but I doubt they will put it to another popular vote.
Yes, especially with the EU pushing for a speedy divorce. I doubt it will trigger a recession in the US, but it will be a drag on the market for at least a month, or possibly until after the divorce is complete. I don't remember why twice the market dipped, but I'm sure we will remember that Brexit caused this one. I'd like to think that if I don't remember those triggers, they were not that important - certainly not as important as GB's exit from the EU. The european news services (BBC, DW) and PBS did a good job outlining why this is a big deal.
Q2 earnings calls are before the shareholder's meeting.
2015Q2 earnings call was July 20, 2015
2014Q2 earnings call was July 22, 2014
Also from NPR:
Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota will retreat from the sale of health plans to individuals and families in the state starting next year.
The price and volume against a stiff short-selling headwind over the last eight trading Sessions show there is a huge pile of money on the buy side. Far bigger than the usual news pop. The short interest report will be interesting.
The market is impacted, and Exact is part of the market.. In the good old days, with far less institutional ownership, Exact was immune from the market. Equity markets will take time to digest the exit of GB, a process having enough risk to trigger a flight to safety. The GB exit also forms a precedent that may spread to other countries, Germany in particular, who bears much of the burden. The EU model of common currency without common fiscal policy never made for a solid foundation. If put to the German voters, the costs, loss of control, and national pride may well lead them to exit as well. Then it all comes undone, and it won't be easy.
Not sure where you got the 3.38 million traded. Yahoo historical Prices shows 6,371,000 shares traded on 6/21/16. That comes out to 33% traded short.
I'll pass on the washing machine, thanks. I turned down a recent opportunity to sail on Lake Michigan with 18 mph NNE winds, waves 4-6 feet and 10% at 8 feet.
Having re-read the Sea Band instructions, they do say "...take between two and five minutes to become effective, but a better result is achieved if the band is in place well before the journey commences.".
While I don't want to own a boat at this point, I am tempted to get a Sunfish, Laser or similar. They plane in light air and are a blast in a fresh breeze. Something about a rooster tail shooting off the stern makes for a great day. I could also drag it out to small local lakes inside of a half hour. I've sailed them from a beach in Indiana, but somehow don't feel they are terribly safe from a Chicago harbor - the former tends to blow you to shore, latter, usually not. If something breaks...
Thanks for the input. Seasickness has the potential to sideline my sailing, though I can always stick with tiny boats like sail boards or Sunfish, as these have never caused me any problems.
The Sea Bands can really leave a dent in the wrist, and I don't have big wrists. Since a vein runs in the same area, is there any threat of reduced blood flow or clot formation?
I know there are a few sailors on this board, so hopefully no too OT. Sometimes I have no hint of seasickness, sometimes it hits like an unstoppable wave. On the first trip this year, I used Sea Bands from the start - elastic wrist bands that hold a plastic hemisphere against the P-6 pressure point. No problem. On another trip, I thought I would go without, but found the conditions (more chop than wind) required that I use them, which I did before getting sick, but got sick anyway. Are the Sea Bands something best used before casting off rather than during? Is seasickness something that passes with time, i.e.. does one get "used to it" or gain sea-legs? I'd really rather not take drugs for this. If used in that manner, are they recreational drugs?
The compliance engine may not be too expensive. The first two reminders from the compliance police are robo-calls. After that, a human calls. While the FIT makers do nothing to drive compliance, some medical groups do, most notably der Kaiser. I wonder what that adds to the cost, and what they save by treating earlier-stage disease.
Most medical groups do zero follow-up for any ordered tests. If the patient forgets or blows off a blood test, nobody calls to remind them. Seems like healthcare in general could benefit from compliance enforcement.
Adding the percent to get to 98% reduction in deaths is wrong.
d1 = original cervical cancer deaths.
d2 = deaths after 70% reduction
= d x (1 - 0.70)
d3 = deaths after another 28% reduction
= d2 x (1 - 0.28)
= d1 x (1 - 0.70) x (1 - 0.28)
= d1 x 0.216
= 78.4% reduction overall.
On the earnings CC, KC said they started the national TV ad campaign 3 weeks earlier, so around 4/11/2016. The test market ads ran for nine weeks during Q1, but I do not think it was stated when those ads started or stopped. The national TV ads started no less than one week and no more than five weeks after the test market ads stopped. If they had stopped the test market ads as long as four weeks prior to the end of Q1, I would think we would have heard more data regarding the long-term impact of those ads.
Starting the national ads invalidates subsequent measurements of the long-term effects on orders and physician reorder rates, following the end of the test market ads since it is then impossible to determine if the continuing effects are due to the test market ads or the national ads. The long-term effects on physician reorder rates are what really matters since the ads generate less margin than the cost of those ads.
What in my original post is speculation? What I have stated are facts from the 10-Qs and the earnings CC. If you would like, I can elaborate each point and provide the basis for each statement, but that makes for a much longer post.
I don't think my opinion on the timing of the last offering is relevant to this post, nor does the surprising USPSTF draft recommendation discount what I have said here. Given management's confidence regarding a positive USPSTF recommendation, it is only in hindsight that we can say they made the obvious correct choice in the timing of the offering.
Lots of information about pivotal changes.
Q/Q growth is slowing, even from the holidays-discounted growth of 2015Q4. The introduction of a national ad campaign will significantly increase sales, but at a cost greater than the revenue generated by that increase. Due to costs and saturation, the TV ads will stop at some point and consumer-requested sales will likely decay as a result. Success will be judged by the increase in the completed tests per ordering physician. Whether that increase will result in a long-term increase in orders per ordering physician is not easy to predict.
Difficult to predict the long-term outcome and even more difficult to predict the analyst's and short-term market reaction.