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Exact Sciences Corporation Message Board

sstephanc 59 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Jun 9, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Brexit's impact on the market

    by capital_loss Jun 27, 2016 12:08 AM
    sstephanc sstephanc 16 hours ago Flag

    The only way I see GB staying in the EU is if Parliament ignores the popular vote and instead votes to remain. There are enough signatures on a re-vote petition to require parliament to discuss it on the floor, but I doubt they will put it to another popular vote.

  • Reply to

    Brexit's impact on the market

    by capital_loss Jun 27, 2016 12:08 AM
    sstephanc sstephanc Jun 27, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    Yes, especially with the EU pushing for a speedy divorce. I doubt it will trigger a recession in the US, but it will be a drag on the market for at least a month, or possibly until after the divorce is complete. I don't remember why twice the market dipped, but I'm sure we will remember that Brexit caused this one. I'd like to think that if I don't remember those triggers, they were not that important - certainly not as important as GB's exit from the EU. The european news services (BBC, DW) and PBS did a good job outlining why this is a big deal.

  • Reply to

    Q out in Early July

    by abigchocoholic Jun 27, 2016 9:53 AM
    sstephanc sstephanc Jun 27, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    Q2 earnings calls are before the shareholder's meeting.
    2015Q2 earnings call was July 20, 2015
    2014Q2 earnings call was July 22, 2014

  • Reply to

    NPR Radio Nice quote from KC today

    by designjets Jun 24, 2016 4:40 PM
    sstephanc sstephanc Jun 24, 2016 11:51 PM Flag

    Also from NPR:
    Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota will retreat from the sale of health plans to individuals and families in the state starting next year.

  • sstephanc sstephanc Jun 24, 2016 10:35 AM Flag

    The price and volume against a stiff short-selling headwind over the last eight trading Sessions show there is a huge pile of money on the buy side. Far bigger than the usual news pop. The short interest report will be interesting.

  • sstephanc sstephanc Jun 24, 2016 10:15 AM Flag

    The market is impacted, and Exact is part of the market.. In the good old days, with far less institutional ownership, Exact was immune from the market. Equity markets will take time to digest the exit of GB, a process having enough risk to trigger a flight to safety. The GB exit also forms a precedent that may spread to other countries, Germany in particular, who bears much of the burden. The EU model of common currency without common fiscal policy never made for a solid foundation. If put to the German voters, the costs, loss of control, and national pride may well lead them to exit as well. Then it all comes undone, and it won't be easy.

  • sstephanc sstephanc Jun 24, 2016 1:51 AM Flag

    It may take more than one day for the brexit thing to shake out. Two maybe : )

  • Reply to

    secondary coming, more dilution

    by bulltard Jun 23, 2016 2:29 PM
    sstephanc sstephanc Jun 23, 2016 2:58 PM Flag

    If they do dilute, the stock may drop 10%. Since it recently climbed 60%, it hardly matters.

  • sstephanc sstephanc Jun 22, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    Not sure where you got the 3.38 million traded. Yahoo historical Prices shows 6,371,000 shares traded on 6/21/16. That comes out to 33% traded short.

  • Reply to

    OT: Seasickness

    by sstephanc Jun 16, 2016 4:05 PM
    sstephanc sstephanc Jun 21, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    I'll pass on the washing machine, thanks. I turned down a recent opportunity to sail on Lake Michigan with 18 mph NNE winds, waves 4-6 feet and 10% at 8 feet.

    Having re-read the Sea Band instructions, they do say "...take between two and five minutes to become effective, but a better result is achieved if the band is in place well before the journey commences.".

    While I don't want to own a boat at this point, I am tempted to get a Sunfish, Laser or similar. They plane in light air and are a blast in a fresh breeze. Something about a rooster tail shooting off the stern makes for a great day. I could also drag it out to small local lakes inside of a half hour. I've sailed them from a beach in Indiana, but somehow don't feel they are terribly safe from a Chicago harbor - the former tends to blow you to shore, latter, usually not. If something breaks...

  • Reply to

    OT: Seasickness

    by sstephanc Jun 16, 2016 4:05 PM
    sstephanc sstephanc Jun 17, 2016 12:58 PM Flag

    Thanks for the input. Seasickness has the potential to sideline my sailing, though I can always stick with tiny boats like sail boards or Sunfish, as these have never caused me any problems.

    The Sea Bands can really leave a dent in the wrist, and I don't have big wrists. Since a vein runs in the same area, is there any threat of reduced blood flow or clot formation?

  • Reply to

    OT: Seasickness

    by sstephanc Jun 16, 2016 4:05 PM
    sstephanc sstephanc Jun 17, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    Thanks. Good to see things are going well.

  • sstephanc by sstephanc Jun 16, 2016 4:05 PM Flag

    I know there are a few sailors on this board, so hopefully no too OT. Sometimes I have no hint of seasickness, sometimes it hits like an unstoppable wave. On the first trip this year, I used Sea Bands from the start - elastic wrist bands that hold a plastic hemisphere against the P-6 pressure point. No problem. On another trip, I thought I would go without, but found the conditions (more chop than wind) required that I use them, which I did before getting sick, but got sick anyway. Are the Sea Bands something best used before casting off rather than during? Is seasickness something that passes with time, i.e.. does one get "used to it" or gain sea-legs? I'd really rather not take drugs for this. If used in that manner, are they recreational drugs?

  • Reply to

    Facts that docs and insurers don't realize

    by jameshwalker99 May 11, 2016 11:02 AM
    sstephanc sstephanc May 12, 2016 11:56 AM Flag

    The compliance engine may not be too expensive. The first two reminders from the compliance police are robo-calls. After that, a human calls. While the FIT makers do nothing to drive compliance, some medical groups do, most notably der Kaiser. I wonder what that adds to the cost, and what they save by treating earlier-stage disease.

    Most medical groups do zero follow-up for any ordered tests. If the patient forgets or blows off a blood test, nobody calls to remind them. Seems like healthcare in general could benefit from compliance enforcement.

  • Reply to

    ThinPrep Launch

    by ltbh2008 May 5, 2016 11:28 PM
    sstephanc sstephanc May 6, 2016 3:10 PM Flag

    Adding the percent to get to 98% reduction in deaths is wrong.

    d1 = original cervical cancer deaths.

    d2 = deaths after 70% reduction
    = d x (1 - 0.70)

    d3 = deaths after another 28% reduction
    = d2 x (1 - 0.28)
    = d1 x (1 - 0.70) x (1 - 0.28)
    = d1 x 0.216
    = 78.4% reduction overall.

  • Reply to

    Tv Commercial

    by rcgnthr May 6, 2016 12:33 PM
    sstephanc sstephanc May 6, 2016 12:57 PM Flag

    On the earnings CC, KC said they started the national TV ad campaign 3 weeks earlier, so around 4/11/2016. The test market ads ran for nine weeks during Q1, but I do not think it was stated when those ads started or stopped. The national TV ads started no less than one week and no more than five weeks after the test market ads stopped. If they had stopped the test market ads as long as four weeks prior to the end of Q1, I would think we would have heard more data regarding the long-term impact of those ads.

    Starting the national ads invalidates subsequent measurements of the long-term effects on orders and physician reorder rates, following the end of the test market ads since it is then impossible to determine if the continuing effects are due to the test market ads or the national ads. The long-term effects on physician reorder rates are what really matters since the ads generate less margin than the cost of those ads.

  • Reply to

    Easily the most important earning call to date.

    by sstephanc May 3, 2016 2:01 PM
    sstephanc sstephanc May 4, 2016 9:45 PM Flag

    What in my original post is speculation? What I have stated are facts from the 10-Qs and the earnings CC. If you would like, I can elaborate each point and provide the basis for each statement, but that makes for a much longer post.

    I don't think my opinion on the timing of the last offering is relevant to this post, nor does the surprising USPSTF draft recommendation discount what I have said here. Given management's confidence regarding a positive USPSTF recommendation, it is only in hindsight that we can say they made the obvious correct choice in the timing of the offering.

  • Reply to

    Help me with the math. How do we get to 240k?

    by moetrades May 4, 2016 11:29 AM
    sstephanc sstephanc May 4, 2016 3:36 PM Flag

    Why yes it does. Sorry, I should have thought this through before posting.

  • Reply to

    Help me with the math. How do we get to 240k?

    by moetrades May 4, 2016 11:29 AM
    sstephanc sstephanc May 4, 2016 1:57 PM Flag

    You are equating the 50% increase in orders to completed tests, which ignores the 69% compliance rate.

  • Lots of information about pivotal changes.

    Q/Q growth is slowing, even from the holidays-discounted growth of 2015Q4. The introduction of a national ad campaign will significantly increase sales, but at a cost greater than the revenue generated by that increase. Due to costs and saturation, the TV ads will stop at some point and consumer-requested sales will likely decay as a result. Success will be judged by the increase in the completed tests per ordering physician. Whether that increase will result in a long-term increase in orders per ordering physician is not easy to predict.

    Difficult to predict the long-term outcome and even more difficult to predict the analyst's and short-term market reaction.

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