There is no such thing as a free colonoscopy. While there is a small chance it will cost you no money, the whole experience makes it anything but free. Personally, I would pay out of pocket before I would go for another colonoscopy.
Have you checked to see if coverage is mandated in your state?
domain: ncsl dot org
path: research slash health slash colorectal-cancer-screening-laws-by-state dot aspx
Why are you are getting impatient? Are you old enough to worry about having not been screened? If you have symptoms, then screening is not really appropriate.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
All those $17.50 support points pre-date the CMS coverage determination & pricing, which put EXAS firmly above $20. CMS pricing changed the landscape for the better, and that has not changed.
I've been meaning to listen to the earnings call again - I was doing too many things at once, so I missed a few points.
" the market is taking a couple of early numbers and putting too much weight on them"
Absolutely. I would say the same if the sales numbers were above expectations and the stock were over $35. I would probably only say it to myself at that point, since it is more fun to watch the price climb.
On Doctor Oz, they discussed superbugs, or antibiotic resistant bacteria, and gave the colonoscope as a mode of transmission. They showed a video of how the scope is cleaned - in a sink of soapy (and disinfectant? - I hope) water and a toothbrush. They said that the business end has several moving parts, making it hard to clean adequately.
So you assume another 1,000 units sold from 2/21 - 2/28, and 5,000 in March. Fair guess.
"Doctor's are taking the test for themselves and waiting for the results before prescribing it for their patients"
What makes you believe this?
"We won't really have an idea about sales trajectory until Q1 or Q2 of 2016..."
Agreed. The data we have seen to date, present no reason to change one's investment choices.
What you say, cannot be true. Sensitivity describes the fraction of those correctly identified as having disease. Overall, this is 92% for CRC. Having gotten a positive Cologuard result, the sensitivity is no longer an issue, and the odds of actually having some stage of disease is defined by the specificity, which is 89.8%.
I have also been asking friends & family to ask their doctors. Tuesday, a friend told me her doctor heard of the test and was impressed, but told her that the test is not yet covered by private insurance. Since we are in Illinois, I doubt this is true since Illinois requires private payers to cover tests included in the ACS guidelines.
I am curious what your doctor meant by "tested 94% positive for DNA problem". Could you please ask? I was under the impression that the Cologuard result was only positive or negative.
The company should parade around a new poster child, in their 40s, who used Cologuard, found and had removed high-grade dysplasia, and another poster child who used Cologuard and walked.
Unfortunately, the stories that grab attention are those of the kid being pulled out of the well, not those of the kid who walked around the well. That's why a new cancer drug gets so much press, but prevention and early detection don't.
"...one must see an MD to get a script ..."
True of all CRC screening.
"...scoping will be required if a pos[itive] result is reported."
This misses the point. For those who might have gone to colonoscopy for screening, they will not need it if the Cologuard result is negative. For those who would not have gone to colonoscopy, a positive Cologuard result may have provided the only thing standing between them and cancer.
"MDxHealth....how much will they take"
Already discussed. Read the 10-k. Milestone payments and low single digit percentage royalties.
"MDxHealth.. After all, it is their technology."
It is far from "their technology". Exact licenses several technologies patented by MDx, but also from Genzyme, Mayo and Hologic.
Popular Science named Cologuard a winner of its "Best of What's New " award.
Doctor Oz talked about Cologuard on his show.
Currently, the issue is cost to benefit, and paid radio and TV advertising are the most expensive. This company is careful with cash.
I'm sure I am not reading what you intended. EE's? Could you rephrase it?
Since CMS coverage likely has a big impact on demand, I only look at the three months since CMS coverage. From a data analysis perspective, you can draw whatever line or curve you like through two data points. With three points, the data may show a trend, or it may be scatter (statistical noise). The distribution of sales numbers is likely to show far more scatter than would, for example, the population growth of bacteria. The more points you have, the more clear the picture, but two, three, or even four points are clearly not enough.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have only heard two numbers for sales since CMS pricing. There are not enough data points, nor time, to say linear or exponential. That said, the behavior of a launch is exponential, for reasons already illustrated by shampoo commercials.
There are too many factors at play to point to early numbers and make any conclusions or reliable extrapolations. Early sales may over-represent real demand because of the pent-up demand, like employees and investors. Early sales may under-represent real demand if there is a pause in doctor's orders because they need to find the time to read about the test before they prescribe it for patients. Five quarter's data should give a good indication.
"Assuming sales ramp linearly"
Linear progression would be some constant multiplied by time.
Sales = c x q
where c = some constant and
q = quarters since launch
sales = 4,000 x (quarters since launch)
2014 Q4: 4,000
2015 Q1: 8,000
2015 Q2: 12,000
2015 Q3: 16,000
Sales of a new product behave like population growth: exponentially. She tells two friends, then they tell two friends.
Sales = c x e^(q/tc)
where c is still some constant, e = 2.817, q = quarters since launch, and tc = time constant
The constants are set to define the model or to fit the actual data.
2014 Q4: 4,000
2015 Q1: 10,873
2015 Q2: 29,637
2015 Q3: 80,562
I'm not making estimates, just illustrating the difference between linear and exponential growth.
When the volume is in the tens of thousands and you can see open bids, you can pretty much paint whatever picture you like. Go ahead and push it up a buck, doesn't matter.
The salient point with Exact Sciences and their relationship with Mayo remains the results to date.
This company has:
Developed a nascent CRC screening technology into a viable product,
Gained FDA approval,
Gained CMS coverage and favorable pricing,
Gained inclusion in the ACS guidelines,
Launched the test commercially,
Enrolled physicians who now prescribe the test and delivered results on those tests.
Any one of these is a major accomplishment. Together, show Exact to be equal to the task at hand.
This gives me every reason to believe that they will continue to succeed in their ramp-up of Cologuard.
It also gives me every reason to believe that they will do the same with:
Esophageal and stomach cancer screening tests,
Lung cancer screening test,
IBD cancer screening test, currently in clinical trial.