The article mentioned what an excellent driller EOG is. It was just wishful thinking.
It should be noted the estimated reserve value for the Booth-Tortuga lease of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion did not include any reserves for the Eagle Ford. Simply amazing USEG has 30% of this lease.
It should also be noted that didn't include the K.M Ranch lease, the Willerson lease, the WCS lease, or the new Dimmit parter lease. And of course it didn't include the Bakken leases.
The rig was gone a total of 46 days to drill two wells. It looks like the drilling times are down to 22 to 27 days. Very impressive. We should easily have three more Contango operated wells start production in the fourth quarter. Maybe four.
We may be on track to exit the fourth quarter with a 2,000 Boepd run rate. Should we get any meaningful contribution from the new Dimmit partner we may average 2,000 Boepd in the fourth quarter.
$1.5 billion times 30% working interest is $450 million gross to USEG. Since $30 per reserve barrel is used it is already discounted back.
My understanding is USEG picked all of his up for $10 million. That price included their share of costs to drill the Beeler Eagle Ford well and 11 already producing Austin Chalk wells.
Hopefully Contango sells out to EOG and we can get them to operate the lease.
First they sell the plane! Then they sell the apartments! Now one of the brothers retires!
This is the company's opportunity to go out and hire an oil and gas man and become an operator in 2015! Stock price premium would double with the right hire!
Since USEG has a 30% working interest that would place the value of their share of the Buda over $150 million just on the Booth-Tortuga lease. That is 50% more than the stock is trading for.
That doesn't count the K.M. Ranch lease or the new Dimmit acquisition. It doesn't factor in the Eagle Ford or the Austin Chalk. And it doesn't factor in their Bakken production. Fair value for these shares right now is close to $12.
Good to see you back and would value your opinion on the July production results from the Buda. Specifically, what is your thinking on seeing the production on the more mature wells stabilize?
Since the next leg up for the stock is $6 to $7 as soon as third quarter earnings are released, or sooner, why would anyone be looking to sell. The "smart money" is still buying.
Boolean, have you not seen the latest production numbers on the Buda wells?
One point not everyone may have caught is the production from the Buda has much better pricing, and lower production and depletion expenses, than production from the Bakken. This will not only accelerate top line growth, but also net earnings and cash flow.
Excellent analysis. Buda production is surging in the third quarter. Mostly oil and sold for more than WTI.
I see the Beeler 17H production went up. It is looking like a Super Buda. The 19H is off to a very strong start. I must say this is as good of a report as anyone could have expected.
But why is this great news being dumped on the obscure Texas Railroad Commission site on Friday night and Saturday and not shouted from the rooftop with an operations update press release on Monday? If anyone knows Keith or Reggie they should call and ask for an update.
I believe Dan Hughes has already asked for well spacing that under 160 acres per 4,500 foot lateral well. But since the company is going to 9,000 foot laterals 320 acre spacing is probably the new well spacing. The effect on PV-10 value is the EUR per well goes up.
One other point. The $140 million is just for the Buda. Contango was estimating the Eagle Ford could have a PV-10 value of $232 million just for their 50% working interst. Since then MCF and USEG have added several thousand gross acres in the Booth-Tortuga area.
Good to have you back. The Buda story is moving fast and it is getting hard to keep up with. Contango had so-so success with the dual lateral on the Beeler 16H and no success fracturing the Beeler 8H. However, they have had great success drilling 9,000 foot laterals ala the Beeler 20H. The 9,000 lateral is now the drill method of choice and the 20H was one of the three wells drilled for an average of $2.6 million.
The unknown partner is fracturing the first two wells in an unknown location in Dimmit. That may or may not be successful and may or may not continue. Of note the Beeler 8H flowed fine and then slowed dramatically, not a sign of not hitting the natural fractures but of a limited oil pool. So no correlation between the results on that well and what the results will be for the unknown partner. Since they are drilling in a different geologic area it may still take time to figure out if fracturing these wells is worthwhile or not.
Two things to consider. The well costs are now down to $2.6 million and the PV-10 of $140 million was based on $4 million well costs. And, they have added a lot of additional acreage with Buda potential since they mentioned the PV-10 value of $140 million.
The discussion on what the oil business is worth needs to take into consideration that there will be a significant expansion in PV-10 value in 2014 due to the drilling success. It is hard to quantify, but consider the addition of the proven producing reserves from the Beeler 6H, 9H, 16H, 17H, 19H, and 20H wells. Plus all of the proven-not producing reserves from the acreage between the 20H well and the 6H well. Right now it is not a stretch to see year-end 2014 PV-10 value in excess of $150 million.
Should the acreage with the new partner yield anything worthwhile that number could jump considerably.
In 2015 it will be rinse and repeat. Plus, there could be huge additions if the Eagle Ford well is successful.
You may have missed the conference call where Keith announced they were already up to 1,352 Boepd for June. I would use 1,500 Boepd for July and 1,600 Boepd for August. No insight yet into September so keep it at 1,600 Boepd.
Assuming $80 per Boepd adds up to $11,528,000.
It could be a lot more than that if the well they just fracture stimulated does anything significant. My assumptions above make no assumptions about the unknown well, drilled in an unknown are, with an unknown operator.
The second quarter was not what was expected because they sold some Bakken production and the Beeler 16 well started a few weeks later than anticipated. Perhaps the stock price is reflecting that. Because it is certainly ignoring what is being cued up for Q3.
July production was 150 BOEpd higher than second quarter production. And the Beeler 20H well didn't start producing until August. Plus two wells with the partner are being frrracked in August. Very good signs finally for the blow out quarter we have been waiting for.