Why not ask Value Digger to do an article on USEG? He clearly has more followers than Hidden Value Investor. He needs to move on it before the stock moves up and away from him.
Re-listened to the last conference call this morning from 2 months ago. Keith seemed very encouraged on the potential of the Beeler 16H well. At the time of the conference call they had already finished drilling the dual lateral and the well was being completed.
He also mentioned they were keeping their cards close to their vest because there were still additional leasing opportunities and they did not want to drive up the prices. No doubt they are trying to get more Buda acreage. Surely some of these wells we don't know the results on have turned out OK for them to be so aggressive.
Sorry, but how do we know Beeler 5H and 9H are disappointing? No one on this board knows how many days, or hours, they produced in April. Pure speculation.
When we get May results, then we can be more definitive in what we are looking at.
Not certain, but it looks like some of the oil USEG sold is operated by EOX. If so, then based on the price Ther received it is very good news for EOX.
And of course great news for USEG as they have over 10 times more Bakken oil still on the books than they sold.
Quick math: $1.2 million purchase + $5 million drilling investment - $1.5 million in revenue = $4.7 million in carrying costs....looks like a $7.5 million profit. At these prices they should sell out of the Bakken completely.
This will reduce depletion costs from Bakken revenue in the second quarter, and in subsequent quarters, by about 10%. In English, this transaction is worth 1 cent per quarter in bottom line EPS. It also reduces debt by $12 million.
In the latest Contango presentation they show the Dunlap wells they have are a few miles south of the Booth-Tortuga lease with U.S. Energy. They completed the first Dunlap Buda well and have since permitted two more Buda wells. I believe the new acreage U.S. Energy picked up is between the two leases; south of the Booth-Tortuga, and north of the Dunlap.
Contango must have drilled a successful Buda well on the Dunlap lease. Otherwise why permit two more Buda wells?
Eventually they will try a Buda well. What would make sense would be to drill the Eagle Ford well down to the Buda and core it, then come up and complete the lateral in the Eagle Ford.
WTI is over $106 and climbing. This is a great time to bring on all the new Buda wells.
Does anyone have a recent quote on Bakken crude?
There is the potential for a lot of additional production this quarter depending on the well results. Keith should have a lot of new data when he presents in a couple of weeks at the Global Hunter conference. Contango will probably also present there. The potential exists for Buda production to be double what it was in the first quarter. If any of these wells are a home run, then production from the Buda could more than double. The Beeler 16 and 17 are being drilled about a mile to the west and parallel to the Beeler 4 and 6 wells. Those two could be very good wells. The Beeler 9 already looks good.
The volume is too low for anyone to build in a significant stake before the presentations, unless they are willing to pay much higher prices.
Thanks for all the updates. I like the latest Barrels of Oil net to USEG per Zavanna well. Not wanting to give you a full-time job, but that would be nice for all the Bakken wells.
Just want to say your contributions and pociljko's contributions are greatly appreciated!!!
If the Beeler 5H and 9H are dry holes the stock may only be worth $4 to $6. If they are like the Beeler 7H, 8H, and the Willerson wells, then probably $6 to $8. If the Beeler 5H is like the Beeler 2h, 3H, 4H, and 6H, then the stock is worth $8 to $10. If the Beeler 9H is like the Beeler 2H, 3H, 4H, and 6H north of $16.
If the well being drilled with the new undisclosed partner is like the Beeler 2H, 3H, 4H, and 6H, then north of $32.
The question is do they still have to wait on Contango, or are they free to release 30 day data on their own?
If the numbers are good at the next operations update you probably won't be able to add shares at these prices. The next update will include the Beeler 5H and 9H for sure, maybe more. They did the most recent AMI election to add acreage after they got the data on the Beeler 9H and the Beeler 16H. That sounds promising to me. And the Beeler 5H is the closest well to the Dan Hughes Super Buda drilled so far to date.
An operations update could come next week. If not, then we may have to wait until the Global Hunter Conference at the end of June.
I have a long history of posting on ROYL. The last time the stock pushed to $7 I sold out and bought USEG. I shared my reasons on this message board.
Right now ROYL is a big bet on their Alaskan oil leases. Those leases could be worth a fortune, or not. It could be 10 for 1 or bust. There is a reason to have some capital allocated to ROYL at current prices.
USEG already has a proven oil discovery worth a fortune…and that fortune is not yet reflected in the stock price. The news flow for USEG is now and the news flow for ROYL is in 2015.
Besides, shouldn't someone have enough funds to buy two different stocks at the same time?
The Edwards formation above the Austin Chalk seems to be the formation Keith was most interested in. They data on it from their drilling for the Buda. The Georgetown is below the Buda and as of yet they have not tested it.
Computer problems prevented me from posting on Yahoo, so I switched computers.
Booleansearcher, you really know nothing about this company. Your negative posts on USEG are going to lead to great embarrassment for you much sooner than you know. The Buda is the real deal.
My final estimate came in the under $10 million range once we got the data for February production numbers. But I still was expecting over $9 million based on an $8 to $10 increase in oil prices, a 30% increase in natural gas prices, and a nice bump in natural gas production.
The biggest two factors in Q1 missing my estimate:
1. The gap in the differential between Bakken oil prices and WTI widened significantly. Rather than the $10 bump I was looking for it came in closer to a $2 bump for Bakken oil. That created a $450,000 miss in my revenue estimate.
2. Natural gas production actually declined in Q1 vs Q4 more than expected. Specifically there was a significant drop in natural gas processing producing natural gas liquids from the Bakken due to the winter weather. This caused not only less production than expected even after the company warned, but also a much lower pricing environment than expected. This looks to have knocked another $250,000 off my estimate.
Bottom line, even after the warning the Bakken revenues still came in $700,000 less than I anticipated due to a lower than expected pricing environment. The nice thing about the Buda production is the actual prices received is easier to predict.
The nice thing about this deal is they have already spud the first well. We will know what they have in two to three months. Before the end of the year they could have four Buda rigs drilling all at the same time. Potentially a lot more growth is coming than anyone is expecting.