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Southern Copper Corp. Message Board

st067753 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2015 6:20 PM Member since: Mar 16, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Short Interest in MIFI as of 8/14/15

    by wirlesbushub Aug 25, 2015 6:46 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 26, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    wirlesbushub...Nice call today and I agree with the gap closure on short covering, but I believe the gap to close is to the $5 convert price and then recent highs of $6.89 soon after.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest in MIFI as of 8/14/15

    by wirlesbushub Aug 25, 2015 6:46 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 26, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    You are right on the 50dma as MIFI needs to break and hold it. It came close this morning at $2.73, but we might see $2.77 to $2.80 this afternoon. If we do, you could see short positions begin to trigger buy orders to close out their trades.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Digicore Acquisition

    by st067753 Jul 13, 2015 8:26 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 26, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    If you read the "scheme consideration", you will see that currency exchange rates play a role in this transaction and having the money in escrow has no barring on the final acquisition. The below statement put a cap on a currency exchange rate increase in the RAND, but I haven't seen anything related to a cap on the RAND decreasing.

    "The Company will pay cash of approximately $87 million (based on currency exchange rates in effect at the time that the TIA was executed); provided that, the total cash consideration under the Scheme shall in no event exceed 1,094,223,363.20 South African Rand, or approximately $88.3 million (which amount is based on currency exchange rates in effect at the time that the TIA was executed) (the “Maximum Consideration Amount”) for the acquisition of DigiCore."

  • Reply to

    Digicore Acquisition

    by st067753 Jul 13, 2015 8:26 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 25, 2015 7:45 PM Flag

    The South African Rand has fallen 7.5% against the USD from 6/18 to today's date. That means the acquisition of Digicore at 4.4 Rand or approx $87M as of 6/18 is now $80.5M or $6.5M lower and dropping. Good News for MIFI from a currency conversion perspective

  • With the market activity from Friday and today, we've learned that MIFI is set up to move higher. And with a new product or solution announcement, MIFI could quickly close the gap to the 50dma ($2.83) and then the 200dma ($4.10) MIFI management needs to gain support of their stated projection of reaching $400M in annual revenue in 2016. Outside of a press release from MIFI, the next items to take note of will be the proxy meeting on Aug. 31st and then the Digicore earnings on Sept 30th. MIFI will triple from $2.45 ($128M Market Cap) to at least $7.50 ($400M Market Cap) once investors see proof of their $400M Annual Revenue Run Rate. And, if they gain investor confidence in their projected $25M to $40M of EBITDA in 2016, MIFI will warrant a market cap of 1.5x or 2x revenue or $600M to $800M. (MIFI at 10 to 13 based on approx. 60M Outstanding Shares)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MIFI

    by bookerone2000 Aug 21, 2015 7:29 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 22, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    I saw this, but $13.37m for 13.5m shares equates to a $.99c per share investment. Is this an option or amortized as part of the $120m convertible note? I'm not clear as DG Capital Management isn't listed as a Top Investor in MIFI, but clearly with 13.5m shares, they would be greater than 5%.

    I'm not following.

  • Reply to

    Bold Statements from the Earnings Call

    by st067753 Aug 11, 2015 12:06 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 12, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    Of the 8 new IoT products, I read the statement below that there were 3 awards to MIFI & Digicore last quarter and if that is true, announcements should be imminent. But, you're correct in that 3 of the 4 MIFI carrier wins won't be shipping until early 2016.

    "I also mentioned that we've recently won three very nice awards, bidding jointly with DigiCore, so that's all in the last quarter, one in Asia with a major carrier, one in the Middle East with one of the largest dealerships over there deploying fleet solutions for both of those, and then a UBI implementation with a large insurance company in Europe, and that's our second deployment of UBI with DigiCore in Europe."

  • Reply to

    Bold Statements from the Earnings Call

    by st067753 Aug 11, 2015 12:06 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 12, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    "we have 12 new products on the roadmap. Four of them are the carrier wins I had mentioned before, eight of them are our new IoT products, which we’re just adding to the mix." - Alex M

    It would be a great time for a Press Release from MIFI on an official launch of one of the twelve awards mentioned by Alex last week as MIFI seems ready for a short squeeze. With the Canaccord conference scheduled for tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised to see something go out after the close today or tomorrow morning to give Alex something to highlight from last week's earnings call.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest in MIFI as of 7/30/15

    by wirlesbushub Aug 11, 2015 4:08 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 11, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    You beat me to it....

    One year ago, MIFI was trading at $2 per share with 450,000 shares short having just reported $33M in revenue and 11% gross margins.

    Today, MIFI trades at $2.48 with 4,572,205 shares short having just reported $54M in revenue and 29% gross margins.

    The squeeze is imminent as it hasn't started yet.

  • st067753 st067753 Aug 11, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Updating this options trade....whoever had the Dec $4 call and put options looks like they just closed their position and moved it to a Mar $2 Call and Put option based on the Open Interest. Looking at the the last trade of each at $.50c, this bullish trade cost the investor nothing as they would have bought the Mar $2 Call at $.50c and sold or received the Mar $2 Put at $.50c. Now they profit on both trades as MIFI trades above $2.50 and although they lost some money on their Dec option trades, they've back in at half the value looking to make millions as MIFI moves higher.

  • If you believe and trust Alex to deliver on these talking points, MIFI will move much higher in the coming months.

    "we expect our quarterly M2M revenues to represent more than 50% of our total revenues with total non-GAAP gross margins of 35% to 40%, M2M non-GAAP gross margins of 45% to 50%, with annualized adjusted EBITDA of $25 million to $40 million generating positive free cash flow."

    "Yes, I said $25 million to $40 million. And that's based on FW being EBITDA positive, we believe all the businesses will be EBITDA positive. "

    "That was part of my speech is that by the end of this year, including DigiCore all of our businesses would be EBITDA positive."

    "the market is probably mispricing where we are today. Hopefully people could hear the numbers that we're talking about. If you just add up the numbers that Michael was talking about and you annualize that, you look at the free cash flow, we have plenty of free cash flow left after we pay all of the interest, annual interest and everything else."

    "we did win two key mobile computing carrier awards for 2016. One of these awards should be the most significant profitability driver in our Mobile Computing portfolio in 2016 and 2017, and is a continuation of an existing Novatel mobile broadband slot at a major carrier. The other award blazes a new product category for our carrier portfolio and in a carrier slot that has been highly profitable over the past few years for the displaced competitor. We expect to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in future revenue based on these two carrier wins."

    "I also mentioned that we've recently won three very nice awards, bidding jointly with DigiCore, so that's all in the last quarter, one in Asia with a major carrier, one in the Middle East with one of the largest dealerships over there deploying fleet solutions for both of those, and then a UBI implementation with a large insurance company in Europe, and that's our second deployment of UBI with DigiCore in Europe."

  • st067753 st067753 Aug 7, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    Exactly the opposite...You will see that the 3550 Puts are being sold at $2.10 from the 3630 open interest at a significant profit and being rolled into 3550 Calls at $.10c. This isn't Maguire as he only disclosed his 5034 $4 Dec Call options in his latest Form 13.

    The Dec $4 call Open Interest is 9,290 so with Maguire having 5,034 of this interest, some investor(s) obviously owns the remaining 4,256 and now we should see that Open Interest grow to 12,840.

    Most likely the 3550 Puts were a hedge against other owned shares or Call Options which turned out to be very smart. And if MIFI moves back to $4 or $5 by the end of the year. This investor(s) will have made a killing thanks to the wild swing in MIFI.

  • Reply to

    Sprint Strengthens Senior Leadership Team

    by greekmonster101 Aug 3, 2015 5:29 PM
    st067753 st067753 Aug 3, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    Announcing the firing of the CFO the night before your earnings report? Never a positive.

  • Phil Falcone and his partners at HC2 own 13M+ shares of the 50M+ currently Outstanding. (SEC Filing today)

  • st067753 st067753 Jul 28, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    Understood August, but you'd have to agree that the guidance for Q3 will be the real news reported on Aug. 6th and for longs, it better be good.

  • An increase of 700K shares short (or Naked Shorts) as the close of 7/15 when MIFI closed at $2.79. I'm sure the activity on Friday, July 17th was some short covering that pushed to a close of $3.09, but with volume of 924K shares, their are still a lot of short positions in place.

    Again, I reiterate my belief that today was the bottom and MIFI moves higher from here.

  • Reply to

    Current status very simple

    by celltechinv Jul 24, 2015 11:54 AM
    st067753 st067753 Jul 24, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    And, if you add in the 290,400 options he was awarded on 3/16 (Sec Form 4) at a strike price of $4.54, that's a total of 990,400 Options that Alex has been granted with an average exercise price of $6.13 per share. So his triggers are $4.54, $5.00, and $7.50 to start making money on his options.

    I'd say he's aligned.

  • If you look at today's trading, someone tried to sell, short, or naked short MIFI through resistance with trades of 17K and 14K shares. When it didn't drop, they covered 4K and 13K minutes later and then tried again with another 15K sell order with no success in driving MIFI lower.

    Expect MIFI to begin moving higher in the next few hours and from here as we approach earnings. And, although the data is 7 trading days delayed, it will be interesting to see if the Short Interest moved higher as of July 15th when reported at after today's close.

  • Reply to

    MIFI

    by bookerone2000 Jul 21, 2015 10:34 AM
    st067753 st067753 Jul 22, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    Yahoo doesn't have it. Go to Nasdaq site, look up MIFI quote, and click on SEC Filings on the left. Filing was on 7/20/15.

  • Reply to

    MIFI

    by bookerone2000 Jul 21, 2015 10:34 AM
    st067753 st067753 Jul 22, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    nad,
    MIFI has been very profitable for me and I hold a different opinion, but I appreciate your view.

    According to the Nasdaq, a slightly lower % is held by Institutional Investors (18.11%), but we'll know more in about a month once they all report. As for tax time, I don't think anyone is thinking about that right now but you, and with over 12,000 $4 Dec call contracts open, MIFI could be very interesting by then.

    As you can see, I don't like the excuses of manipulation any more than you do as I'm trying to evaluate the business and financials. The proxy statement that came out yesterday (still with a date for the meeting being blank) gave us all a much clearer picture of what MIFI will look like moving forward.

    Admittedly, there are some things I didn't like such as the request to increase the outstanding shares to 150M because 97.5M of the current 100M are already outstanding or reserved & the assumed $77.7 in revenue and GAAP EPS loss of $.23c for March 31, 2015 as if MIFI, Feeney, & Digicore were together at the beginning of the year. (MIFI reported a loss of $.17c and DigiCore had a profit so what does that say about Feeney).

    On the + side, MIFI will have close to 600K active billable subs producing recurring monthly revenue, gross margins should continue to climb as Digicore's exceeds 63%, DigiCore's business is showing nice growth (specifically Internationally) while reducing operational costs, Feeney's $38M FY 2015 revenue projection must be weighted toward 2H 2015, approx 50% of the outstanding shares are owned by Insiders including HC2, Karsh, and McGuire, and MIFI should have $45M to $55M in cash once everything is done in Q4.

    My point about MIFI having been profitable for me, I held a large position in the low 2's before I sold half of it when it popped over $6. I bought more in the low 3's and added again last week so I can wait this out as I'm still green. With rev, EPS, and GM growing, I believe I will be rewarded, but time will tell.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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