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Southern Copper Corp. Message Board

st067753 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 18, 2014 7:36 PM Member since: Mar 16, 2007
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  • st067753 st067753 Feb 8, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    2012 revenue from continuing operations = $397m 19.3% YOY growth
    2013 revenue = $442M 11.3% YOY growth
    2014 projected revenue = $507 14.7% YOY growth ( not including recent acquisitions)
    2015 projected revenue = $561 10.7% YOY growth (not including recent or future acquisitions)

    I don't know where you're coming up with the "cannot even grow 10 percent", as the figures above come directly from earnings releases and projections.

    As for earnings, as I've said in other posts on this board, I think SWIR is far more focused on Top Line Revenue growth at this point vs. EPS, but looking at the same 4 years, the numbers look very good.

    2012 EPS from continuing operations = .3c
    2013 EPS = .33c 110% YOY growth (mainly Sagemcom)
    2014 Est EPS = .48c 46% YOY growth (not including recent acquisitions)
    2015 Est EPS = .83c 73% YOY growth (not including recent or future acquisitions)

    You and Motley Fool can have your own opinions, but in my opinion and looking at the facts above, SWIR is in great position to move significantly higher Short Term, Long Term, or in the very near future as an acquisition target themselves.

  • From a close of $26.06 on Jan. 2nd, we've seen a drop of 30% which has been painful for some new investors and, in my opinion, oversold based on revenue and EPS growth expectations for the next 12 to 18 months. (Let alone cash on hand & new acquisitions)

    But, if you look where we were on 8/30/13 at $12.32, today's closing price of $18.43 is still a 50% gain in less than 6 months. Yes, the 112% gain in 4 months from $12.32 to $26.06 was great, but even if you didn't take some profit, (which you should have) SWIR is still probably one of your best investments in the last 6 months.

    I'm sure that Jason and the board had no issues bringing down expectations and conservatively setting guidance because they are playing with house money knowing that slow and steady is far less stressful than trying to justify 112% stock growth. (To be fair, SWIR was $20.39 prior to earnings which was 65% higher than 8/30)

    So, if you've jumped on the IoT/M2M bandwagon with SWIR over the last 40 days, I feel your pain, but I'm buying more with the profit from taking some of the table at $25 and change.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Temple, TX call center closure

    by clwr_trader Mar 18, 2014 3:58 PM
    st067753 st067753 Mar 18, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    It's just part of the 1,100+ employees that Sprint laid off over the last two months. Softbank needs to cut as much cost out of the business to offset needed Network Investments and more recently, to get ahead of the curve of the expected loss of subscribers and reduction in ARPU from agressive price cuts in the Industry throughout the 1st half of 2014. Cutting costs can buy them some time, but this network they've been talking about since 2011 better come through or Sprint will be in trouble.

  • Reply to

    Self driving cars

    by guod20042000 Feb 8, 2014 11:21 AM
    st067753 st067753 Feb 8, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    Articles like this one will continue to drive speculation that Google will make a play to purchase SWIR to drive the full ecosystem and control for the Google Open Auto Alliance. With Nest, Google wanted access to the home and they also want to have complete access of your car as well. And, I think this is why SWIR is more interested in increasing Top Line Revenue over concerns about EPS. For a higher valuation!!!! Jason knows that SWIR is well positioned for the future to grow organically as well as through acquisitions with their 188m in cash. On the conference call, Jason sounded very confident about 2014, but I believe he's even more confident about 2015 - 2018 for when products discussed today will come to market. The SWIR board is in the cat bird seat for any buyout offers and they confidently know it.

  • I'd love to believe that earnings has been pushed to March because of a potential announcement of a deal in the interim.

    SWIR is reporting on Wednesday Feb 5th (2 Days) and NVTL usually reports the same week. Last year NVTL reported on February 21st, so if the delay has anything to do with selling the company, I'm all for it.

  • st067753 st067753 Mar 4, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    SWIR doesn't need a catalyst at this point. SWIR needs to be recognized as being well positioned for growth in the M2M/IoT space and deserves a Market Cap of 3X projected 2015 revenue. ($563M*3 or $1.689B)Others in this space like CAMP have a Market Cap of 5X projected revenue. At 3X revenue, SWIR would be above $50 per share. At 2X revenue SWIR would be above $36. If they are considering selling the company like many speculate, Jason would be asking 3X future revenue and a Qualcomm or CSCO could pull the $1.6B from the cushions of their board room.

  • Reply to

    Take Advantage

    by pahatch4 Feb 6, 2014 1:04 PM
    st067753 st067753 Feb 6, 2014 9:44 PM Flag

    Thanks for the additional context and proving my point as well. $12MM to $10MM to probably another nominal figure in 2013 tells me that the overall organization isn't really promoting it or their teams are only comfortable selling components. On the conference call, Jason talked about adding AirVantage into the comp plans to incent their teams to introduce it more to customers. Why has it taken 3 years to do that, I don't know, but as I stated, AirVantage and the component business might be in better hands of a software centric company.

  • I wonder if this new Pre-Paid plan was put together Before or After Masa Son yelled at the Sprint Marketing Team to fire all of their Marketing/Advertising firms. LOL

  • Buyout? New customer/revenue?

    Knowing the management team, I wouldn't put it past them to leak something.

  • st067753 st067753 Feb 10, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    Thanks a lot for all your data points, but do you really think any of it matters? Softbank owns 81% of the outstanding shares of S and controls the stock price. Sprint lost over 2M subs in Q2 when they shut off Nextel and the stock moved up to $5.74 at the time. As you mentioned, they lost 313K subs in Q3 and warned of more to come and the stock moved up to $6.93. Clearly Sprint got ahead of itself with the Son bandwagon and TMUS speculation when is ran to $11, but even at $7.69 they have continued higher with continual subscriber losses.

    If they lose 400K, 800K or 1M+, is there a point where it matters? Not when a single investor owns 81% of the outstanding shares and not when that investor has institutions in his pocket from Softbank and dangling the carrot of the Alibaba IPO that's right around the corner.

    Sprint as a viable company on its own merit has a long way to go to profitability and subscriber growth, but again, I don't know if any of that matters until Son decides to change his investment.

  • st067753 st067753 Jan 22, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    Also, Uncrazy people don't pay $115M for a house that is valued at $39M.

  • Reply to

    Take Advantage

    by pahatch4 Feb 6, 2014 1:04 PM
    st067753 st067753 Feb 6, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    I agree as SWIR is clearly focused on Top Line growth right now. Very indicitive to a company shopping themselves to be bought out and the buying company can extract the profitability through synergies and scale.

    AirVantage is their future recurring revenue stream, but SWIR employees and management come from the component side of the business and are having a hard time growing that segment. The SaaS cloud management of AirVantage would be best leveraged by a software solutions provider that can drive costs down in the commodity side of the business that is hardware components. SWIR management is struggling with the promotion of AirVantage which is proven by their lack of reporting its revenue separately.

    I predict that SWIR will be purchased by Mid-2014 and their 500 to 600M in projected annual revenue by that time will garner a $1.5B to $2B valuation.

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