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Corinthian Colleges Inc. Message Board

staccani 193 posts  |  Last Activity: 31 minutes ago Member since: Sep 24, 2011
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  • staccani staccani 31 minutes ago Flag

    bump

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • staccani staccani 1 hour 8 minutes ago Flag

    Facts need to stay on top

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • staccani staccani 1 hour 14 minutes ago Flag

    This is a fact. And medicine is based on facts, as finance is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So, how many lives can be saved with this new automated test BGMD ts offering together with Abbott Laboratories, Siemens and other ? Tens of thousands? Hundred thousands? I cannot put a target price on this test, really

    'In high cardiovascular risk patients referred for coronary angiography Gal-3 is a strong independent predictor of cardiovascular death' PubMed 2015 Jan 22 in 'Galectin-3 Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Death in High-Risk Patients With Coronary Artery Disease'

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Monday's open / close

    by backjackreturnes1 Jan 25, 2015 12:35 AM
    staccani staccani Jan 25, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    I agree that the fact they have only indicated Abbott in their FDA clearance 8k is at least strange. Probably they have done another subsequent exclusive agreement in place with Abbott, which has not been fully disclosed yet?

  • Reply to

    Monday's open / close

    by backjackreturnes1 Jan 25, 2015 12:35 AM
    staccani staccani Jan 25, 2015 2:33 PM Flag

    sorry, what is the big news from Abbott you are expecting? BGMD has already reported in their 8k they have an agreement in place to commercialize the Galectin 3 automated test through Abbott's Architect..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GREAT, have a look at BGMD as well

    by staccani Jan 25, 2015 6:45 AM
    staccani staccani Jan 25, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    The main reasons of the recent lows reached in mid December were that:
    1) the automated test was cleared by the FDA only on Dec 30th 2014 and the manual test before was too labour intensive and too slow
    2) There is a growing and very recent overwhelming scientific evidence of Galectine 3 as highly predictive of HF failure
    3) the agreement with Abbott Laboratories to commercialize through the Architect assay is also very recent.
    I agree that it has a very small tiny market cap and basically no revenue yet, so it is a speculative play. But when they start the roll out and revenue will come in , then it may be too late to buy. Anyway good that you always take the risks that you are willing to take

  • Reply to

    GREAT, have a look at BGMD as well

    by staccani Jan 25, 2015 6:45 AM
    staccani staccani Jan 25, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    The test is reimbursed by the Healthcare system.
    30M people globally suffer from Heart Failure. Of course if the test is done as routine test also for people not suffering (yet) from HF and/or it is cleared also for other conditions, like cancer. then the number of potential test can increase dramatically.

  • Recently FDA cleared Galectine 3 automated test (Dec 30th), highly predicitive biomarker of Heart Failure. Partnership with Abbott Laboratories for worldwide roll out through their Architect platform. 30M worldwide patients at $30 (for free to US patients, ca 6M patients) per test twice a year = potential global revenue of $1.8B per annum or $250-$300M in annual (cost free) royalties . BGMD has $21M market cap and up 60%+ only last week... Recent studies proved Galectin is also predictive biomarker in Cancer and other conditions

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Galectine 3 test for HF to be supplied through with ABT Architect platform. The automated test will become standard test for Heart failure patients globally (ca 30M people, to test twice a year, at $30 per test = $1.8B revenue potential), as highly predicitive of HF and recenlty cleared by the FDA (on Dec 30th 2014). BGMD owning the IP rights of the automated Galectine 3 test has $21M market cap..., I leave it to you to guess where BGMD PPS is heading (+ 60% only last week)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Monday's open / close

    by backjackreturnes1 Jan 25, 2015 12:35 AM
    staccani staccani Jan 25, 2015 6:13 AM Flag

    Not sure about Monday, but I see the PPS to at least $5 after Q1 2015 results, or $150M in market cap.
    We only need $15M-$20M in annual royalties to support that price, which would correspond to 1.5M-2M patients tested twice a year. But potential market, JUST for Heart Failure, is 30M patients globally.... and this without even considering the other possible applications (e.g as cancer biomarker) which we could have in the next future...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Abstract

    Galectin-3 is a β-galactoside-binding protein expressed by a variety of different types of human cells. Galectin-3 is found in the nuclease, cytoplasm, and cell surface and is also secreted into the circulation. Galectin-3 as a biomarker has been confirmed with connections to inflammation, fibrosis, and overall risk of mortality in the general population. A blood serum test has been approved as a biomarker in high-risk cardiovascular patients to monitor potential heart failure. Elevated levels of galectin-3 in the serum have been linked to the development of several different cancers as well as cancer metastasis. Preclinical cancer models have shown galectin-3 to be associated with tumor cell transformation, invasive behavior, and metastasis. This review summarizes the pathophysiological connection of galectin-3 and cancer presently in the literature, as well as the potential clinical value of galectin-3 as a prognostic oncology biomarker. Based on the preliminary data, the galectin-3 assay could become a contributing tool to help clinicians monitor treatment response and tumor progression, but further clinical studies evaluating galectin-3 levels and cancer progression are warranted.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There are at least 30M people globally suffering from heart failure and ca 17M people dying from heart attack every year. It is now proven by many studies that Galectin 3 levels are highly predictive of HF risk, so now that the test is automated, it should really become a standard test for all HF patients, with at least 2 tests per annum. So the potential market is 30M x $30 x 2 = $1.8B.
    Now, if we assume a 15% royalty for BGMD, then we are talking about $270M royalties per annum with basically no costs. That should translate easily in $200M net profit. At P/E of 15, could mean $3B in market cap, or potentially $100 PPS. This without even considering the potential applications of Galectin 3 used as biomarker of other conditions.
    With these potential numbers I easily see BGMD very short term target at $5+.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any ideas of potential revenue?

    by staccani Jan 21, 2015 4:01 PM
    staccani staccani Jan 22, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    well, if the projected royalties are $25-$50M then we are talking about $10-$15 PPS

  • Reply to

    Any ideas of potential revenue?

    by staccani Jan 21, 2015 4:01 PM
    staccani staccani Jan 21, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    ok, I'll take $5 in Feb 2015 :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any ideas of potential revenue?

    by staccani Jan 21, 2015 4:01 PM
    staccani staccani Jan 21, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    Well, I guess we can start from the 32 M people having heart attacks globally each year. If they can do 3 tests per annum with 20% market share, then it is 20M tests x 30 $ = $600M revenue with possibly $3B in market cap or roughly $100 PPS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Any idea of what kind of revenue we can expect from the automated Galectin 3 test globally, what is the potential addressable market globally and expected market share? Not able to find any company presentation on the subject and no analyst coverage apparently.
    But knowing that CVd's are the first cause of death globally, it looks like an interesting potential market.

  • Global obese population is close to 500M. 0,1% penetration would mean 500.000 units sold and $7.5B revenue p.a.. At 80% gross margin and subtracting 30% R&D and SG&A costs, considering the tax loss carry forwards, there could be 50% net profit. We want to be more conservative? OK 35% net profit or $2.6B. Multiply by a P/E of 20 and you get a market cap above $50B or $700 PPS. For how long they can keep it at $1.25?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • staccani staccani Jan 21, 2015 2:07 AM Flag

    The set price for the device is somewhere around $15K. It is written everywhere, just google it. The whole procedure should cost above $20K. Canaccord has been modelling 55%-68% Gross margin with $10K price per unit. If we use $15K, we will have a gross margin of 80%+. Subtract 30% between SG&A and R&D and you have 50% net profit (considering tax loss carry forwards), apply a PE of 20 and you get a market cap of 10 times yearly sales. With 1,000 unit per annum you get around $150M market cap (almost twice current marekt cap). Even a tiny penetration of 1 out of 1,000 obese in the world (between 300M and 500M people) should grant annual revenue of $5B-$7.5B per annum and a market cap above $50B or $700 PPS.

  • staccani staccani Jan 21, 2015 1:56 AM Flag

    Even with just one product line and even if you take only 1/10 of Medtronic market cap you still have $7.2B or almost 100 times current PPS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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