We had $0.69 in Q1 , $0.31 in Q2 is quite feasible as it is all ongoing backlog.. That would mean a P/E of 0.4 . ie they have ertned in 1 quarter almost their entire market cap. Good luck to all the shorts :-).
With positive ph3 results , better safety profile, symptoms improvements, just one shot (vs life long pills), no sexual or heart issues, cancer risk reduction (vs cancer risk increase vs other medication), and a growing $4B BPH target market , guess where the stock is heading , if not today (HF's will try to steal your shares, so I would not be suprised if PPS goeas down today), in the next few months
Remains to be seen about efficacy vs SOC. But it is proved to be safer (no sexual inconvenience or heart failure risk) , reducing prostate cancer risk/progression, and more convenient as far as compliance is concerned, so even if similar efficacy, it seems to be superior to competition
I agree with Branko, or I should say that he agrees with me as I came up with similar valuation 1 1/2 year ago :-). But DCVax L for GBM is just the tip of the iceberg.
Lung cancer yearly death toll alone is 1.5M people, and expected OS at 1 year for stage 4 is 30%. If survival is anywhere near the 100% (method B) as in ph 1, numbers are going to be much bigger.
Lung cancer market for DCvax Direct is al teast 500 times GBM's. There are 1.5M deaths annually from Lung cancer. DCVax L $300M expected annual sales for GBM will be just a droo in the ocean compared to DCVax L applied to all other operable solid tumor cancers and DCVax Direct applied to all inoperable solid tumor cancers. We need to multiply GBM figures by at least 1,000
I hope you are right, because , if ph2 confirms or improves ph1 method b results, history of human battle against cancer will be written
well, the inclusion criteria in the trial was patients with stage 4 and they had avg 3 tumors and 3 treatments. Even within stage 4 patients you may have patients with better prognosis than others. For instance patients with metastates to the lymphnodes or to the dermis normally have better prognosis than patients with metastates to vital organs such as lungs, liver, brain, viscera, etc.
Whilst DCVax L is quite easy to evaluate and I find the $5B valuation provided by Evaluate Pharma substantially agreeable, I think that DCVax Direct evaluation is very difficult. At the moment NWBO market cap is 1/5 of 'L' only valuation, hence Direct is valued at zero.
Direct, method B, with just one injection in one tumor in stage 4 multiple cancers, has already outperformed SoC as far as 1 year survival is concerned (in particular Lung, Sarcoma, Melanoma where 1 year survival was 100%).
Let us assume for one moment that ph 2 will confirm phase 1 results (considering more frequent injections, method b activation, multiple tumors injections, the likelihood is quite high), then we are looking at a potential global market of at least 7B solid cancer deaths globally. Even assuming a 1M patients market penetration globally, at $110K per patient, that is $110B revenue per annum, ie anywhere between $500B and $1Trillion market cap. If Direct becomes SoC for all Solid Cancers, making them a curable condition, then the number of patients annually could be at least 5M or $500B annual sales with NWBO market cap in the Trillions USD. Current oncology market is $100B but if a cure is found , numbers will grow exponentially, no government/NHS/insurance will deny access to a cancer cure .
The only main doubt I have at the moment is: were the patients used in the method B activation 'cherry picked between all the stage IV patients', so that they would live longer anyway?
I hope ph2's will be randomized double blind vs SOC, because if results show a clear survival improvement as in ph 1 , the trial could stopped early and lead directly to approval
Only RBH105 for just HP could generate 100 times $40M annual sales. Overall RDHL is targeting $100B plus markets with its multiple late stage drug candidates. It is just a matter of time my firends, and true market value of the company will emerge, so be prepared to become very wealthy
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Eventually the two things will have to reconcile. In the meantime good opportunity to add
ABC294640 is targeting multiple markets (solid tumor, hematologic tumor, GI inflammation markets). If you sum them all , you'll probably get north of $100B markets. Have a look at the RDHL corporate presentation as well.on their website.
It is too thinly traded, MM tends to steal shares from you, plus if JUST ONE of the several blockbuster candidates is successful this will become a multibillion USD sales company , capitalizing over $10B or $1,000+. I need to learn myself to not watch it on daily basis and add whenever I can. GLTA