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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

staccani 1389 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Sep 24, 2011
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  • Markets were really scared about the Bergen convertible debt and warrants conversion. LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • staccani staccani May 25, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    and why on earth convertible notes and warrants exercise from Bergen for a total of less than 15% of O/S , as a consequence of their replacement with RidgeCapital, and btw bringing fresh cash into the company, should cause a 50% drop in PPS in 2 days? How has this changed the company fundamentals?

  • Reply to

    SHORTS ARE GOING CRAZY

    by adonias14 May 25, 2015 1:35 PM
    staccani staccani May 25, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    these are ASX shares , less than 15% of total O/S. Bergen exercised warrants and convertible notes taking advantage of being in the money after rapid PPS appreciation. What is toxic about it?

  • Reply to

    SHORTS ARE GOING CRAZY

    by adonias14 May 25, 2015 1:35 PM
    staccani staccani May 25, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    I cannot believe you are so clueless. They have issued 95K shares in total to Bergen and Ridgecapital for the two financing deal in 2014 and 2015 respectively. These are ASX shares , less 7% of total O/S. Even the max 1 billion shares that they could issue in the future is less than current O/S and anyway it would bring new finances to complete LAG 3 trials

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ... that it caught everybody attention due to Cvac excellent results in a the small ovarian cancer, whereas the real and big value is in the LAG3 APC activator and checkpoint inhibitor. The scientist (Prof Frederic Triebel) who discovered it and obtained with his company (IMMUNTEP) the astounding ph2 results in metastatic breast cancer (doubling efficacy vs SOC) before the CLT4A and PD1 CI era, did not have enough resources to take it to the market and finally sold the company tfor peanuts ($28M) o PBMD at the end of 2014. Now PBMD has a real chance with sufficient institutional financial support to complete trial and take it to the market. I do not know if LAG 3 will become the same as or bigger than PD1, quite possible, what I know is that if it succeeds, then PBMD will become the next GILD.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • staccani staccani May 25, 2015 2:20 AM Flag

    there is another trading session in Australia tonight, before Nasdaq opens on Tuesday

  • staccani staccani May 25, 2015 1:44 AM Flag

    You should do your homework. Anything extending life so long is goinjg to be priced at the same level of Checkpoint Inhibitors ie $150K per per person. That would mean $3B revenue and $15B market cap assuming 20k patient per annum.
    BUT PBMD is manly now focussed on LAG3 new target, a new CI or APC depending on the form, which in the APC soluble version has doubled efficacy for metastatic breast cancer (which is taking 500,000 lives yearly). Then they have partnership for IMP701 with GSK for autoimmune diseases and IMP731 with Novartis for the new Checkpoint Inhibitor. I'll let you do the math.
    They are in the two of the three hottest technologies in cancer (the last one is CAR T cells).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Junior biotech hopeful Prima BioMed Limited (ASX: PRR) appears to have rekindled its incredible rally today, surging nearly 43% higher to trade at 13 cents.

    Just seven days ago, Prima BioMed’s shares were changing hands for 2.2 cents each but rallied as high as 19 cents by early Friday, representing a 764% gain. They then retreated to 9.1 cents at the end of the week (on the back of a 43% decline on Friday), but have restarted their ascent today.

    The company has been in the headlines recently due to the promising results from its Phase II CAN-003 trial which showed that second remission ovarian cancer patients being treated with CVac had experienced a significant improvement in the median survival rate, with data suggesting it could add “at least 16 months” to a patient’s life.

    The stock surged further after it successfully raised $15 million to fund the development of two new clinical trials. Today, the shares are bouncing off a new announcement which will see its “iCAN” software platform commercialised for use in other cellular therapies worldwide. Prima BioMed said that iCAN had contributed to making CVac an efficient and relatively low cost cellular therapy. iCan was designed by Database Integrations Inc. (DBI).

    Prima believes other developers of cellular therapies can also benefit from the software platform. Prima and DBI will work together to seek sub-licenses for the system whereby it is envisaged that Prima will earn a percentage of the revenues DBI earns from the sub-licenses.

    In relation to the latest development, Jackie Littlefield, who is DBI’s Chief Operating Officer said “we see potential for iCAN to become an industry standard, and look forward to working with Prima to introduce our system to new players in the field.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Expected sales for Cvac ovarian and IMP321 MBC

    by staccani May 24, 2015 2:59 PM
    staccani staccani May 24, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    and this without even considering other cancers , the partnered product with GSK for autoimmune diseases, and the partnered product in oncology with Novartis.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If you look at both analyst reports at the company web-site they both expect Cvac will generate $350M sales just for ovarian cancer. By biopharma avg this should translate into at least $2B market cap (ie 13 times current market cap). And that is just for one cancer and one product.
    On the other hand I think they are both shy when it comes to evaluating IMP321 . which it has double efficacy vs SOC in metastatic breast cancer; considering there are at least 500,000 deaths each year world wide at a price of $100K+ as other CI's, could generate sales north of $10B, which would effectively make PBMD similar to BMS as far as market cap is concerned. Still to be proved in ph2b starting this year, but if same efficacy as ph2a i think it will be fast tracked and possibly approved w/o ph3.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I guess we'll get a PR this week about it

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Under media tab, webcasts and presentations. Very interesting.

  • PBMD IMP321 LAG 3 has shown double efficacy vs SOC in HER2 negative Metastatic Breast Cancer (50% vs 25%) in phase 2. MBC takes ca 450,000 lives globally each year. IMP321 could save 200,000 lives each year just in MBC. IMP321 could be priced at $150K per person (same as PD1). If it becomes SOC it could generate $10B++ only in Breast Cancer.
    This without even considering the other solid tumors and the fact that it has already shown a strong synergistic effect with PD1 CI's (eg Nivolumab , Pebrolizumab) in preclinical studies.
    Nivolumab for instance is expected to generate $10B + revenue per annum.
    PBMD could become the next BMS with its new LAG3 Checkpoint inhibitor.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • PBMD owns exclusive rights to IMP3121 LAG3 CI. Similar to Nivolumab/Pembrolizumab. sales potential ($10B+)
    It has proved to double Objective Response rate in Metastatic Breast Cancer phase 2 (50% vs 25% SOC). This stock should be trading at $1B + looking at US peers

  • In addition to effective DC vaccine (similar to NWBO's whose fully diluted market cap is close $1B) PBMD has also a very promising new Checkpoint inhibitor (LAG 3) whose efficacy was already demontstrated in metastatic breast cancer ph 2 (doubling ORR vs SOC from 25% to 50%). Other checpoint inhibitors are PD1's developed by BMS and Merck expected to fetch peak annual sales in excess of $10B. So market cap of $3B to $5B NOW (10 to 20 times current market cap) would be fully justified , so any dips would be just profit taking at these leves to prepare for the next legs up

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ISR had much better news than PBMD. agree?

    by vijaybhargav_d May 20, 2015 4:32 PM
    staccani staccani May 20, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    No, they are maningless. Local control and OS all look basically the same regardless of Cesium 131 usage

    Retrospectively collected data of patients treated with WR, WRB, or SBRT (1993–2012). Cesium-131 (Cs131) used in WRB group in patients with close or positive margins based on surgical assessment. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, log-rank test used to compare disease-free survival/overall survival between different groups. Multivariable analysis, using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, was performed to evaluate the independent effect of age, gender, and treatment procedure on disease-free survival.

    Results
    A total of 272 patients were included in the study (123 WR, 52 WR+Cs-131, 97 SBRT). Cs-131 was used with WRs that the surgeons deemed high risk. Local control (LC) was similar in the three groups and was achieved in 92.2% for WR group vs. 96.2% for WR+Cs-131 and 95.5% for SBRT (p = 0.60). On multivariate analysis, although females showed a higher LC, neither LC nor distant metastasis were associated with age or gender (p = 0.65 and p = 0.41, respectively). Five-year overall survival was 100% in the WR+B group, 97.7% in the WR group, and 89.6% in the SBRT group (p = 0.02). Toxicity was similar in the three groups.

  • LAG3 is the Checkpoint Inhibitor they are developing. I guess the market is catching up with peers valuations. I see PBMD market cap anywhere between $0.5B and $1B in a few days

  • and click on the pdf file...Very interesting analyst report on the company. I am not connected in anyway to the analyst but long in PBMD

  • staccani staccani May 19, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    you can't even read, that is NOT the same news , but an update. Another 6 months survival has accrued since November 2014 news and growing since median overall survival has not been reached yet

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SAME NEWS AS NOV 5th MORONS.....

    by followmeistowin May 19, 2015 4:24 PM
    staccani staccani May 19, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    median OS has NOT been reached YET, so the increase vs SOC will be longer than 16 mths

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