I think they were referring to the response that VB111 was able to generate by the Immune system and proved by fever. Probably not foreseen considering the anti agionic type of drug. IR is more peculiar to CI or Vaccines and probably explains better outcome than Avastin
well if it is mean and not median OS then I agree with you. That'll be impacted by the long tail of survivors, which in the Avastin arm is zero now (they have all passed away unfortunately). Median OS was double vs Avastin arm for the records
At least 15,000 rGBM patients in US and EU wousl be treated at $120K p.a. would mean $2B and $15B market cap by avg biopharma multiples. And GBM is one of the smallest cancer as far as incidence is concerned. In the meantime FDA basically pushed VBLT to start ph3 before the end of ph2 and VBLT CEO said that ph 2 results have improved vs ASCO. So guess where we are heading next week.
- Emricasan to be used as chronic disease drug , efficacy is meant to improve with longer usage, also continous revenue stream
- Trial met primary endpoint where it is needed to decrease PH ie above 12 mg/hh, since below this level it is not a big issue. Another confirmation of Emricasan efficacy
- HPVG levels were validated by FDA as surrogate endpoint and may be used in Ph 3
- Longer usage will be tested in LC ph 2 trial due in q4, which will use also other endpoints (MELD score)
- Ph3 design/strategy to be finalized in Q4, focussed on LC
- Ph2b HVPG trial to be used also as support for ph 3
Lowlight: I could not see any, really, other than we need to wait for a couple more months to understand about ph 3 strategy
With $40M+ in cahs and no debt, the market now is valuing CNAT at $60M, a company with a drug which has basically met all primary endpoints in ph2 so far, which has proved safe and which may address a market of $50-80B where there is no cure. Ridicolous, eventually the true value will emerge.
all the retailers who bought and need to be shaken out. This is the usual pattern of computerized trading after good news:either you have done your DD or you will give i and sell. That is why they do this , to scare you so that you give them your shares. I will not sell one single share
We will know before the end of the year, as confirmed also in today's call. they are currently working on the ph 3 strategy and endpoints (they may add HPVG as well) , working with the FDA.
This means contibous use , long stream of revenue also due to increased base of patients due to chronic administration. Impact and efficacy on Liver disease is expected to improve along with duration of use (LC trial usage to be reported in Q4 has longer duration for instance)
Shaking the tree to get cheap shares, walking down prices already in PM. This could be the lifetime investment, whoever sells now is a fool. Potentially CNAT could become $100B+ market cap company if LC is cured/reversed, as it appears from these ph 2's
There is no reason why CNAT should not be trading at similar levels as ICPT, ie $4.5B or 40 times current CNAT mc. Another confirmation with validated biomarers was obtained, Q4 will have results for Liver Cyrrosis using the same biomarkers (guess what the results will be), then ph3. ICPT drug has in fact some cholesterol issues. RCPT drug failed ph2 and it trades 5 times CNAT market cap. There is a long way up to go, my friends
Sentiment: Strong Buy
no worries, you have time to go long... as there is a long way up to go in the next few years
you do not know what you are talking about. It demontrated stat sign reduction at levels where the HP is dangerous
Hepatic venous pressure gradient — The HVPG is measured to approximate the gradient in pressure between the portal vein and the inferior vena cava (IVC). It can quantify the degree of portal hypertension due to sinusoidal resistance to blood flow (the most common cause of portal hypertension) (table 3). A normal HVPG is between 1 and 5 mmHg [3,4]. Portal hypertension is present if the HVPG is ≥6 mmHg. Portal hypertension typically becomes clinically significant when the HVPG is ≥10 mmHg, at which point varices may develop. Once the HVPG is ≥12 mmHg, patients are at risk for variceal bleeding and the development of ascites.
CNST is initially targeting Compensated and Decompensated Liver Cyrrosis which is a $60B market in US and EU only. Then you need to add the RoW
Again no availaible cure. If Emricasan cures/control Cyrrosis, then do your maths as to what CNAT could become considering that BioPharma trade normally at 5-10 times revenue.
We do not need Baker Brothers BS to appreciate the potential here
Then you should do a bit of DD. Look at the latest CNAT corporate presentation and you will see where the figures come from. Also you will understand why ICPT , which is still in ph 2 trades at $4B. If you do not know what you are talking about just do not post.
I wonder who put a thumbs down..LOL . must be a short seller... btw the market estimates above (provided by CNAT) relate just to US and Europe. Not sure about the RoW but I would guess we should double the figures (considering many more patients but lower prices) possibly
These results are important not only because the Portal Hypertension market is $2B, but mainly because PH is a consequence of Liver Cirrosys and Emricasan addresses the underlying cause. As a reminder at the moment the liver spectrum disease market is estimated at at anywhere between $60 and $80B annually and there is basically no cure.Even a relatively small 15% of the market could make CNAT a $100B market cap company
They must be all wrong then. As i can see 3 strong buy, 3 buy, and $14 1 yr pt. But what do they know.