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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

staccani 146 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 5:47 AM Member since: Sep 24, 2011
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  • First, if there was bad news they would have released a PR yesterday, after market close.
    Second, only one week ago a substantial manufacturing expansion deal was signed and the partner accepted to be paid in locked up shares for it.
    Third, there is a huge insiders ownership % in NWBO. Insiders owns and control the company.
    Fourth, the longer the DCVax interim results, the better, as it means that there is no safety issues and people are surviving.
    Fifth, compassionate use is spreading and we start to have the first direct testimonies of patients who benefited (GBM tumor remission/survival)
    Sixth, there is no trading volume in the stock, nobody is selling

    Finally, the upside for the stock here could be enormous as the potential solid tumor cancers market could be above $1trillion pa and the stock is trading at very small fraction of it potential considering that it could get a substantial slice of that market. A 10% slice of that market could mean a $500B market cap or $7,000 share price with 75M share count (includes warrants and locked up Cognate shares)

  • This is huge, as it mean most likely PEI has reviewed DCVax L Phase III interim results before granting hospital exemption to DCVax L (NWBO PR mentions PEI has reviewed ALL clinical data before deciding). I have posted the link to the FDA/PEI confidentiality agreement on IHub post n. 6332

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1) After DCVax L Ph 3, no need of further trials, just label expansion and DcVax L will be used for all operable solid tumor cancers
    2) DCVax direct paper admitted to ASCO + Linda's very enthusiastic about its (unblinded trial) results (she called it tumor killer)= en route to defeat all inoperable solid tumor cancers
    Point 1) above means that we are close to a new SOC for all solid cancers ( 5Mill + new cases per annum) = potential market of a few hundreds Bill $ per annum
    Point 2) above means that we might be getting closer to the end of cancer era = I cannot even give a $ value to this!
    And guess what: this will happen regardless of what AF says or writes!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • staccani staccani Feb 26, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    Beacuse 61% is in the hands of insiders who are not selling (Toucan , Cognate, Powers and others). The only shares that institutional investors can buy are the ones that weak retail investors sell and BTW Institutional investors and Mutual funds now own more than 14%

  • staccani staccani Feb 9, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    and what is funnier is that if DCVax becomes SOC, then the $7,000 PPS is conservative. 2020 projections show 20 million new cancer cases per annum, most of which are solid tumor cancers. At the moment DCVax L is coming with a $40K cost per 3 years treatment. Assuming DCVax L and DCVax direct become SOC, then most of new solid tumor cancers will be treated with DCVax. At $40K per peatient per annum for 3 years, assuming 15 million pa new solid tumor cancers patients in 2017, then we are talking about a $1.8 trillion potential market per annum. For the sake of calculation I assume 20% of those patients will be treated with DCvax (but if it becomes SOC the % will be higher), at $40k x 3,000,000 patients x 3 years = $360B annual revenue with let us say 30% net profit then we have $120B, with 15 P/E then we have $1.6 trillion market cap which would mean $21,000 PPS with 75M oustanding shares. This company maybe worth zero if DCVax is not working, but if it works then the sky is the limit

  • There is only one thing to do for the company: sue Adam F.
    He is basically writing that that the company, hence its CEO/BOD, are lying/ spreading false information to the markets. So either the company executive are criminals or Adam F. is a criminal. In my view the company should file a suit against him, and if they do not do so they would look like criminals or clowns at best. Anybody doing something similar to to the company I work for would definitively be brought to court and/or prosecuted

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by staccani Mar 16, 2014 6:44 AM
    staccani staccani Mar 16, 2014 7:47 AM Flag

    Well, knowing a bit how Germans think and act (I have have been working with them for quite long time) there is no way PEI would, knowing there is an ongoing Phase III trial, decide without reviewing the interim data, since they have confidential access to it

  • This must be the most manipulated but most promising stock I have ever seen in my life. 60% + is in insiders' hands, the rest in institutional hands and mutual funds and small investors. Funds do not have many shares to buy, they are not happy, they are left with peanuts, they cannot get the shares they want, they try to get more shares scarying or boring small investors with continuos and constant price decrease on very light volume, day after day. By doing so, small bored/scared investors give in, they sell their shares and move on. Funds and insiders keep accumulating, retailers sell either at loss or at small profit. This will most likely continue until either DCval L results or ASCO breakthrough presentation on DCVax direct.
    500 patients in Germany alone (for 3 years treatment at 50,000 $ cost per annum = $75M revenue) justify current market cap, which is peanuts compared to what NWBO could become. I have just leant to ignore Market Manipulators and will wait for NWBO real potential to develop adding more shares whenever I can. I see you in the $1000's PPS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Provided New cancer cases are estimated to be 20 Million globally in 2020, according to a 2008 US statistics we have the following percentages broken dow by cancer type:
    1) Digestive system 17,5%
    2) Respiratory system 14,8%
    3) Genital system 20,4%
    4) Breast 14%
    5) Urinary system 8,4%
    6) The rest (ie Lymphoma, Myeloma, Leukemia, soft tissue, bone and joints, endocryne syst etc) ca 24%
    This mean that the first 5 categories, which as far as I know are solid cancers, are potentially targettable by DCVax L (and eventual extension, for operable cancers) and DCVax direct for inoperable cancers,
    So, if DCVax works, we might be talking about ca 75% x 20 Mill = 15 million new solid cancer cases each year by 2020. Should we apply $37K per patient x 3 years x 15 million cases = $1.6 trillion potential market.
    I would be very happy if DCVax in all its forms could get 20% of it. That would mean $320Bill revenue pa or ca $1 trillion market cap. With let us say 50 mill shares, I still get to $20,000 per share

  • I think there is no hope for the US stock market until people like AF and his friends are free to write whatever they like, even if false and defamatory. I am surprised that NWBO has just put out a PR, whereas these people deserve no less than being reported to the authorities, prosecuted and sentenced to jail otherwise they will just keep doing what they do until they are asked to pay for their wrongdoing once and for all.

  • The placebo arm is made of 80 people, the treatment arm of 160 people. 72 people in the pseudoprogression group and are not counted.
    Now provided that as avg the placebo group has 6.9 mths PFS, and that the 66th event was reported in December 10th, the question is: the longer we wait for the 88th event to happen, the longer or the shorter the PFS in the treatment arm? If you cannot answer the question, then you would be better off selling your NWBO shares and put your money in a mutual fund.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Many have tried to estimate DCVax L market potential. With 100,000 new GBM cases globally per annum, a 20% market share would mean $37k x 20,000 x 3 year treatment = $2B revenue pa or $10B market cap, or $200 PPS with 50 mill share count.
    BUT the most promising drug is DCVax Direct, targeting ALL solid tumor cancers estimated at ca 10 mill new cases per annum globally, ie 100 times bigger than GBM market. It has shown remarkably effective (80%-100% efficacy) on animals, potentially could be the CURE for all solid tumor cancers. If so DCVax Direct revenue could be as much as $200B pa with let us say 30% market share (assuming an avg treatment cost somewhat lower than GBM at $25K per annum). That would mean $20,000 PPS.
    For once I would like to hear from somebody else who has tried to run the figures. So far I am the only person I met who has tried to do so and is not ashamed to write about it on a MB :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I try to put together some figures I have read. Solid tumor cancers are the vast majority of tumors. There are ca 10-15 million new cases p.a. and 8-9 million deaths p.a. NWBO is targeting solid tumor cancer treatment at an avg cost of $40K p.a.. per patient for 3 years. So we might be talking of a theoretical global market potential of $1.5trillion + (considering that treatment last 3 years).. If this technolgy/drug is effective I would not be surprised if it is able to get a 10% of this market, i.e. $150B revenue per annum, at avg pharma multiples we might be talking about $500B market cap, which with a projection of 75M share count, we might be talking about $6,000+ PPS. But if the cure is effective , then why only 10% market penetration? 30% market penetration would mean $18,000 PPS. I am not saying that this scenarion is likely or not (I am not able to estimate the likelyhood of success), but if the drug works and it is able to cure solid tumors, the sky is the limit. Do you want to sell for a few cents profit? Up to you...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Opening the sale of DCVax L to patients from anywhere and having a reimbusrment system in place is equal to a global approval. And to be honest I think FDA will follow suit shortly. With 30,000 new GBM cases each year globally, this approval opens up potential $3-4B market for NWBO ($40K x 3 years treatment x 30,000 patients), ie $1B revenue pa if it gets 25% market share, or at least 10 times this price, or $4B in market cap. And this is from GBM alone! Consider that if DCVax works for GBM which is the most difficult type of cancer to treat, it will most likely work for other solid tumor cancers, then you add DCVax direct and there you have a cure for cancer for all solid tumor cancers. Potentially this is a $50B-$100B revenue company or a $200-500B company in market cap, or 1000 times current PPS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1) NWBO needs the money now to mfg vaccine after German (unexpected in time and width) approval
    2) Heigths Capital ithe third largest shareholder , they know what is going on, they want to put the money in before PPS become too expensive (after ASCO). Similar to what heppened with Cognate a couple fo months ago.I would be worried if they sold new shares to the public. Obviously insiders are in stronger position as usual and they will always arrange things so that they get their superior reward, but as long as they buy and they do at market price, that is a very bullish sign

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Many have tried to compare NWBO to IMUC and tried, as Adam F, to infer that NWBO will fail like IMUC did with their GBM trial. Now a lot hs been said from a technical standpoint which demonstrate the superiority of NWBO technology, so I will not repeat that. But I think it is worth noting one big difference between the two companies. Source MSN, NWBO insiders own 61% of the company, IMUC insiders own 3%. That says it all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ...I would prefer that DCVax become the cure for cancer rather than making a lot of money out of my investment in NWBO. If this is the price to pay to give life to people who have lost hope, who cares about money then!

  • The only answer I have is because that mfg capacity is needed. You do not invest in mfg capacity unless you know that you will need to mass produce! If I were uncertain about it I would have signed a LOI or an agreement subordinated to events such as positive interim test results etc etc. That does not seem to be the case. To me this is a clear sign that tests are going well and that they are quickly getting ready to mass produce.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Most of these bloggers like the infamous person I do not even want to nominate work for Hedge Funds. Hit piece/bashing articles are written for the only purpose to coordinate a wave of shortselling/bear raids in which gullible small investors are suckered in , selling their share in panic. Friday movement of NWBO price was no exception. Good, although partial, DCVax L update, and the stock goes up, bashing article out, HF short selling, some small investors selling their shares on the cheap, HF covering, price closing in the positive territory. The usual old BS. That is why I have added more shares on Friday. Until we all realize that these people are NOT journalist and we start considering them as market manipulators and criminals, they and their HF buddies will always make money at the expense of small investors. They deserve no less than jail IMO.

  • staccani staccani Jan 25, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Glenn, except you and possibly a few others nobody really cares about what are the financial details (ie how much Capex Cognate is spending) of the deal.
    What matters here are:
    1) the interim trial results
    2) the fact that the deal was announced just before the results are made public (possibly it was for Cognate the last availaible window to get a partnership at reasonable prices)
    3) that NWBO will give access to increased production capacity , and not only, in multiple location and in the short term
    4) that the Cognate is being paid with shares, hence the confidence in the trials good results
    5) that Cognate cannot sell shares for 30 months
    6) that NWBO CEO sits also on Cognate's BOD hence is doubling her long bet with the two companies partnership
    So everything is pointing at an early positive outcome of the ongoing trials, so it is all very reassuring and bullish.
    In any case, even if Cognate got an excellent deal, and considering all the above it is very likely they got an excellent deal, I can promise you I will not complain if in 30 months time Cognate (and I) will be able to sell their shares at $10,000 each (since IMO a cure for solid cancers is worth at least half a trillion $ in market cap).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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