I think people who know what is happening behind the scenes, also know that Huawei no show means that Huawei is not able or willing to fight in court.
MM would try to walk it down. But if there is a leak about (imminent) settlement, as it appears to me it is happening, it will not be able to control PPS. Huawei would have shown to court if it was their intention to fight. I think we will know either or Monday or the next few days.
Pieces start to get together. Huawei and SPEX agreement seems had certainly not been reached yet as of Sept 22nd when the S1 was issued (and it seems it was still pending as of Friday?). SPEX have issued a S1, in case they have to keep on with and fund the litigation and they want to be prepared as they are not ready to accept a tip.
Considering how long it is taking (even considering royalties complexities,if it is was for a few millions $$ Huawei, would have been finalizedit quickly, it would not take 1 and half month and still not done yet ) so all is pointing to sizeable deal under discussion here.
It does not take 1 and half month to finalize a $10M settlement for Huawei. That is pocket change and papers would have been signed long ago in a matter of days. All leads me to believe that they still haven't reached a final agreement or anyway they are quite close, and that figures at stake are much higher , otherwise Huawei would have not wasted all this time and money on the issue.
Who can buy should do so since it is going down until MM wakes up and turns off the machine. I will keep buying whenever I can, the lower it goes the more, as fundamentals, technology, potential and efficay are not understood by the MM, let alone by his machine
sorry I did not catch that, I think it is a very conservative estimate though. CFO's are like that, they like to give nice suprises, I think they will be closer to $30M
ICPT is ahead, just started ph3 , but focussed on Nash (not LC). ICPT is $4B market cap company, 50 times CNAT . LOL. Raptor just failed ph2 and it has $0.5B mc. Go figure
Based on current burn rate of $5M per quarter , yes. Now it depends when they start ph 3 , the numbers of patients and duration as I expect costs to increase, not sure if current cash will be enough to fund ph3 in full (probably not). The good thing is that by the time ph 3 is started (2016?) we will have a full set of data to support the same, namely ph2 on LC due by Q4 2015 If it meets primary endpoints I expect PPS to be much higher than what it is now, and when/if funding is needed , a secondary offering much less dilutive for current shareholders. I think that tomorrow starts the most important quarter for CNAT so far, also because it will give us the final elements to set the strategy for ph3.
Even more ridicolous now ... with $40M + in cash and no debt, market is valuing Emricasan shot at $50B + unserved market ca $40M... . If Emricana is able to cure or control LC,then sales could be several Billions USD per annum and market cap in the tens of USD Billions. . Maximum loss $1, max gain $1,000. Worth a shot?
We knew about double OS. Now we also know that the VB111 + VB111&Avastin cohort has more frequent VB111 infusions and caused 29% ORR, with IR fever. This means that VB111 has an anti angiotic effect but also an immune related effect and that is very encouraging not only for rGBM ph 3 but also other solid cancer indications. Bottom line very promising platform for many cancers, starting from GBM
'We are very pleased that the full Phase 2 data show such a meaningful and statistically significant overall survival benefit for VB-111 in rGBM. Moreover, the favorable response rate and the complete response cases support our confidence in the potential of VB-111 as a treatment for rGBM and additional solid tumor indications,"
Median OS was known. We do not know what the presentation was about though (only the onse who attended the conference would). I bet there will be a PR before market opens updating us on responses and long term survivors (as anticpiated multiple times by the CEO). Anyway I agree that what matters now is ph3, which in light of longer than expected OS than initially thought in 2014, could even see an early stop for efficacy at interim in 2016.
Pepper, Avastin sells in many other cancer indications. It has still to be proved if VB111 can improve OS in other indications than rGBM, there is definitively a possibility there. In fact VB111 could either turn out to be a complement to Avastin or a new generation replacement , so Roche should be very interested. The issue is that should they make an offer now, it would seriously undercut VBLT potential as current mkt cap is too small
... and who knows in ph 3 the combo from the start could further improve the 16 months OS, so additional chances of early halt... we shall see.
Note : $100,000 was estimated per annum per patient, considering the median OS at 16 months we get to the $1.6B per annum
There are ca 10,000 rGBM cases each year in US and as many in EU . if VBLT + Avastin becomes SOC (based on ph2 results it should, tbc in ph3), and assuming a 60% market penetration x $100,000 per patient, then we are looking at $1.6B revenue per annum, which at avg biopharma multiples should support $10B market cap.
BUT VB111 is being tested also in other solid tumor cancer so there is significant upside as well. Whatever new insight and updates from tomorrow presentation (which should further support the already good interim data), we are all geared to 2016 interim ph3 results, which might surprise with an early halt for efficacy (considering the unexpected improvement in OS).
I agree. That was amazing and with hindsight it looks like it was a very good decisio,n judging from the ph2 final results that are going to be presented. I also hope (and CEO hinted at that in Q2 conf call) that since ph3 was powered to show stat sig efficacy at 12 months Median OS vs Historical Avastin Median OS (8 mths), and we know that now it is quite longer (16month and maybe longer in ph 3 as the treated arm takes the combo from the start), the trial could be stopped at interim for efficacy in 2016