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Apollo Global Management, LLC Message Board

stage3time 94 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 23, 2015 7:53 PM Member since: May 8, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by knb97 Jun 23, 2015 7:08 AM
    stage3time stage3time Jun 23, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    No, not at all. The company is paying $3 plus the $1.10 to owners of the shares on July 17th. There are millions of shares shorted. Those shorts can not afford to pay $4.10. It is a great way to shake them all out. They will need to cover before that date. Keeps a nice bid on the shares. Even after that date, shorts who cover will not have the stomach to try it again. Once a special dividend means another can come anytime, again destroying shorts. Shorts lick their wounds and move on to shorting stocks that don't pay a dividend. The same thing happened when Microsoft declared their first special dividend. It destroyed shorts. So happy when they take a good beating trying to short one of my long term holdings. From here it will go over, and stay over, $150. I feel confident the regular dividend to go to $1.25 by years end. I also feel they will come again with another special. So fat!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • stage3time stage3time Jun 19, 2015 9:58 PM Flag

    You really have to question quite of a number of his latest investments. Of all things to throw money into Atlantic city dying casinos. Oh Icahn could keep Trump Taj Mahal open for another year? I mean all have long ago abandoned them. Trump so long ago has nothing to do with any casino with his name on them. It is a dead town, one casino falling after another. Here comes Icahn with our money and wants to invest?!? To keep it open maybe another year? I am an investor in IEP long ago, and as it comes down to my buy in levels I sell out so I will never have a loss, but oh boy the gains I have given up just sitting around reducing over time. Even with a 7% payout it just looks sickly. Sickly! Is he just old and has lost touch?

  • Reply to

    I'm wondering why the Prefs keeps selling?

    by stage3time Jun 9, 2015 7:23 PM
    stage3time stage3time Jun 10, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    I can't see how issuing lots of new preferred at 9% payout to RAS is the most efficient way to raise capital. That is very expensive! Can they really earn far more than that? So much more that it is worth doing? The goal should be to eliminate and call instruments costing RAS so much to cover.

  • Reply to

    PFD

    by muckahoy88 Jun 10, 2015 10:40 AM
    stage3time stage3time Jun 10, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    Why the A? You didn't even compare yields. All 3 have the same credit rating. The C just traded at $24.38. It has a coupon of 8.875% on a par of $25. That gives it over 9.1% yield. You got robbed for a lot actually. .5% is more than the Fed will hike in a year. Prefs feel very weak, too weak, sorry but their weakness at these monster rates have nothing to do with the Fed hiking .25%. I own plenty of prefs strongly sitting at par.

  • Both of Ras's prefs B and C should be trading at $25 par. I would expect RAS to want to call them in time. Their rate of payouts are very high, both over 9%. Still they are always far lower. B can't even hold $24. Before things go wrong for a company its always the bonds and prefs that dirt first. Lenders know, get skiddish first. That keeps me skeptical and wondering if the Common is not headed towards $5 for some reason? I just don't see the black here. I dig and read and things appear ok to me. Where is the black the lenders and pref holders see. Even the notes RFT and especially RFTA, with a maturity of only 4 years and a coupon of 7.125% can barely hold on to $24. RFT heading towards $23. Something is wrong and I don't see it. Anyone? Feels wrong to hold the common as it keeps sliding and lenders are getting out......

  • Reply to

    Been a good hold for 3 years now but

    by stage3time Jun 3, 2015 4:01 PM
    stage3time stage3time Jun 5, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    My stop was $10 so I did sell out. Not just this reit, but a few others as well. It is clear the Fed just wants to begin tightening and these type of securities are not the place to be anymore. I hate taking taxable gains but had to, at least it is long term tax rate, although that is no longer what it used to be. I moved my reit cash to a handful of refiners. Take a look at an article in Barrons titled "Five reasons to buy refiners now". The thinking made sense to me and the researchers all seem to back them up as a group. All say buy them. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Will continue past 150. Shorts must keep covering. They can't pay the $3 out. Enjoy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    OHI dividend yield is now a hair over 6%

    by defilip1 Jun 3, 2015 10:48 AM
    stage3time stage3time Jun 4, 2015 7:48 PM Flag

    I added at $36 as well. To me insider Korman tells the story by buying 100,000 shares at $36. I am a long time holder of this stock. I have purchased throughout the many years after significant insider buys. Always means value to me. Yes, Aviv caused quite a hard sell off, but the dividend is very secure. Yes headwinds from Fed rate hike will come, Reit funds are all selling, so could be more pain. This is a stock you buy at moments in time like these, and put away. I enjoy the always increasing payouts. I think they are on the right path towards continued growth and ever higher payouts.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • stage3time stage3time Jun 3, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    unloaded this dog. Happy to have gotten out with a small gain. As fed hiking cycle begins, the cash flow will only become worth less and less. No dividend hikes at all. Its a sell. Will go to $35. Bye.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • feels like its time to unload. All reits getting jammed as Fed begins hiking cycle. This dog never even respects its owners by ever hiking the dividend. Like come on already, hike it! They just pay the same lazy amount for years and years. Of course as rates go up that cash flow becomes worth less. Shame. Have to take a taxable gain. Anyone want to try to talk me out of selling?!?

  • Reply to

    CBRL 15% short float and JACK only 2%.

    by doitagaindallas May 15, 2015 5:51 PM
    stage3time stage3time Jun 2, 2015 7:34 PM Flag

    Yes, the shorts were taking over, but NOW they have to pay $3 a share and can't! Can you hear it? "Margin calls"! Forced covering. Buys! Over 3 millions shares short. Goes way higher this week. WAY. Some big funds, who thought there were smart shorting solid stocks like this one, literally got smoked today. Reeeemed. Pounded. All this week, somewhere off in the distance, you will hear it if you listen real closely. As it gently ticks higher all week. OK that is it! I told you to cover now!! I love it so.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    CBRL

    by ba1000000000000 Jun 2, 2015 4:20 PM
    stage3time stage3time Jun 2, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    The oil spike month is nothing, oil is lower, will go lower, then the summer brings all the car vacation travelers looking for stops to eat yummies. 3+ million shorts in this stock are throwing up their hands debating how to get out of paying the fat $3 special dividend. Hahahaha. Goes way higher.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • stage3time stage3time Jun 2, 2015 7:25 PM Flag

    This shortie, and all the rest, over 3 million shares, will soon be posting any nonsense that comes to their minds. Anything they can try to get just to get it a few dollars down so they can cover. I think it rallies all week as one short after another gives up. Oh the short losses! So nice! Enjoy the ride my long friends.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Over 3million shares short, 12 days to cover

    by dieselhft Jun 2, 2015 8:29 AM
    stage3time stage3time Jun 2, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Shorts can't hold on. Big meetings today. $3 dividend takes them out. They are hoping for a small comeback so they can cover. See $155 in next 10 days. I saw this happen back when Microsoft declared a one time large dividend. Smoked the shorts. This will keep rising. $170 before years end. If you are short, cry and cover fast. If you are long, increase. If you are not in it, what are you waiting for?!? Buy!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reliable Dividend REIT

    by financekid299 Mar 12, 2015 6:17 PM
    stage3time stage3time May 28, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Why is this stock such a dog and keeps falling? What good are taxable dividends if the price goes down more than the dividend?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Goldman Sachs

    by jedidej May 18, 2015 10:51 AM
    stage3time stage3time May 18, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    GS says sell, and Wells Fargo chairman, and Chevron board member, who clearly knows the numbers, buys $19 million worth for his own account. Talk about an insider buy. What more proof does anyone want that this is a good level to buy. GS missed the low and wants to get in. Criminals.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RETIRED PRFD

    by muckahoy88 May 14, 2015 5:15 PM
    stage3time stage3time May 15, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    Still makes sense to accumulate the RAS preferreds below $24. Someday they will all call them. So many of my reit prefs have been called over time. Nice fat yield while you wait. I enjoy those prefs in my 401k as otherwise fully taxed though.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Pref B is below $24?

    by stage3time May 15, 2015 11:02 AM
    stage3time stage3time May 15, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    Days range is $23.89 - $24.25. It was me buying a little at $23.95. Only got small though as you say. I add around that level. It feels pretty safe to me for a 8.7% yielder.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I saw Tepper from Appaloosa saying the assets are worth far more than stock price. Worth sitting with a little a while. I see he put his money where his mouth is on their 13F filing. Lets see. He is a pro at picking up distressed assets. I see all the posts of people upset since they lost much, but its the bottom where the poor sell and the wealthy pick up. At this level you either wait it out, add, or get in. Good luck longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • stage3time by stage3time May 15, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    I wonder why it has sold off all week? Should it really be pushing towards 9%? It should be sitting at par $25 with such a nice safe yield.

    Sentiment: Hold

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