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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

staggman99 262 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Nov 1, 2006
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  • staggman99 by staggman99 Jun 25, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Board members...a lot of investors would like to see a message about LINE (yield about 12.2%) and not a bunch of Monkey Talk...if anybody is interested, the earning data on LINE is: gross margin is 84.8%, operating margin is 45.4%, profit margin is -15.5%, ROA is -4.7%, ROI is 1%, ROE is -17,1%, EPS Q/Q -281.5%, EPS is -2.16, EPS next year is -71.3%, EPS next 5 years is -14.5% and the income is -712.3 million dollars (the forward p/e is 137.8)...

    The technical indicators that I use (12 different); five short term are 60% sell, four medium term are 75% sell and three long term are 67% sell for an overall average of 72% sell...support is 9.88, pivot is 10.25 and resistance is 10.62...

    My opinion is, that the over-all color is so bad that there is 'not much hope' for LINE even if oil prices keep increasing...! Stagg...!

  • staggman99 staggman99 May 6, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Board members...here is the real story, in Total Returns PSEC is up 87% over the last 10 years, is up 36.6% over the last 5 years, is up 3.8% over the last 3 years and is down -16% over the last 12 months to date...why do some people come up with these silly stories (???)...! All investors need to get a 'Total Return calculator' and then start using it...! $tagg...!

  • Reply to

    OT: FPI & LAND

    by pay.back37 May 22, 2015 1:53 PM
    staggman99 staggman99 May 22, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    pay.back...I strongly advise against making any type of Agriculture investments at this time...land prices are high and could go even higher, but they are very over-valued...all grain prices are in the dumps and I don't see much chance of an improvement in the future...we now have mountains of grain (corn, soybeans, wheat and etc.) that cannot be sold or used...land value should be based on the percentage of profit that it can produce (forget that)...

    Last year I had the best corn crops that I have had in my lifetime and it was a type of GMO corn...my corn last year had 22 rows of grain to the ear and most of the time my corn has 14 to 16 rows of grain per ear (last years corn crop was about 25% better than any corn I have ever grown)...what happens in the future when they develop a corn that makes its own nitrogen like soybeans do (???)...what happens in the future when corn has three or four good ears per plant (???)...grain prices will continue to retreat just like oil did because of fracking...

    I have a grand-daugher-in-law that is an Biological Engineer (Purdue Grad.) that is working on some wonderful stuff that will make our life a lot better, it will also make some food very, very cheap (it has already started)....I will be lucky to have three to five more profitable years left in farming...my future income on the farms will be from timber, coal leases, hunting and fishing rights, land use, but not much from farming...! I already make a lot more off of my investments than I do farming...! Stagg...!

  • staggman99 staggman99 Jun 28, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    Board members...some investors need to do some real homework...the fact is, that PSEC is up 18.05% over the last 4 1/2 years in Total Returns (which is 3.08% annualized) and these numbers do not reflect Compounded Returns if the yields are reinvested...! I wonder how some investors know if they have a profit or loss (???) because they never figure their 'Total Returns' (with yields added back) on their holdings...charts, reflect the swings in share prices, but not the payout of the yields...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    From Raymond James today (from the IV board)

    by bobdbeck Jul 1, 2015 11:05 AM
    staggman99 staggman99 Jul 1, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    Board members...I strongly disagree with the Raymond James rating because the current and forward color on LINE is terrible: LINE (yield about 14%, if they can keep paying it) gross margin is 84.8%, operating margin is 45.4%, profit margin is -15.5%, ROI is 1%, ROA is -4.7%, ROE is -17.1%, EPS next year is -71.7%, EPS next 5 years is -14.%% and the income is -712.3 million dollars...the forward p/e est. is 115...LINE has gone down 76% in share prices since I sold it without the yields added back...

    The short, medium and long term technical indicators that I use rate LINE and over-all average of a '100% sell'...my opinion, is that LINE did not do a very good job of showing a profit when oil prices were a lot higher and I cannot see were their hedges have helped them show a profit in the past...I also feel they are 'to big to grow' and 'cannot manage the business' they have at this time...it also looks to me like their acquisition opportunities in the past 'have been a failure'...! Lets hope I am wrong about some of this...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    SFL message board

    by wdavis1712 Jul 14, 2015 5:43 PM
    staggman99 staggman99 Jul 14, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    wdavis...we can discuss SFL 'right here and now'...what do you want to discuss about SFL (???)...I think that we have already talked about everything new about SFL (including the effects that the merger between FRO and FRO 2012 will have on SFL)...! We love to talk about SFL, 'please open the discussion'...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    SFL is smiling -Up she goes--- $16 is coming

    by sarge198502 May 21, 2015 10:30 AM
    staggman99 staggman99 May 21, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    sarge...SFL (yield about 10.6%) is smiling at me also, lol...my guess is, that earnings will probably be strong when released on 05/25/15....at this time the short , medium and long term technical indicators I use are an average 80% buy...current ROE is a strong 10.4% and the one year forward price target is $18.79....! SFL is always slowly growing and glowing...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    SFL increases divvy:

    by bobdbeck May 29, 2015 11:07 AM
    staggman99 staggman99 May 29, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    Board members...my 'very poor math' says that the SFL/FRO deal will add about $1.80 cents a share in real book value (cash) to SFL...I don't know how much will be returned to the SFL shareholders, or how it will be returned, but percentage of new ownership is a strong plus for SFL and the shareholders...! It also looks like the general market feels the same, judged by the current increase in share price...! Stagg...!

  • Board members...some of us 'ate a lot of crow' when SDRL discontinued it dividend....the fact is, that I was wrong again, because SFL 'is shining a lot brighter' than I predicted it would...! I'll be back later after I finish eating my steak, lol...! Good luck to all...! Stagg...!

  • staggman99 staggman99 May 29, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    k-bon...I think you got it correct...a little over a half a share of FRO for every share of SFL or maybe about $1.75 to $1.80 cash a share to the SFL shareholders....! Regardless, it is a great deal for the SFL shareholders (if they choose to return 'all of it' to the shareholders)...and the future looks very bright...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    OT: interesting morning thus far

    by dividendhunter Apr 30, 2015 11:24 AM
    staggman99 staggman99 May 1, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    board members...'bob is correct again' on the MLP's, MLPL (yield about 11.1%) and LMLP (yield about 17.7%) have both been making a decent run upward in share price...! Stagg...!

  • Board members...if anybody is interested, I use three different Total Return calculators...'Buyupside' is the best and most user friendly and lets us program in the dates that we want to use (Buyupside has a lot of outstanding and different investment calculators)...'DividendInvestor' is another Total Return calculator that is also free and user friendly and can help investors back track past yields (plus, it give dates on future yields)...'Morningstar' is another one, but is not as user friendly has the previous two, but is always up to date...

    Myself, I also have a disk program (called Financial Tools) that I use to help me calculate 'Compounded Total Returns' (its not perfect, as I 'add back 'he difference between' the Total Returns and the Compounded Returns 'to the Total Returns')...we all try to do good research, but it is also important to remember that that just because we read a News Feed 'does not mean' that it is always correct...! Good luck to all...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    OT: Shopping list

    by pay.back37 May 7, 2015 5:19 PM
    staggman99 staggman99 May 7, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    pay.back...you may want to take a look at LMLP (yield about 20.4% and pays monthly), LMLP is an ex-energy ETRACK MLP that has twice the profit or loss with the same amount of invested funds (it is one of my favorite holdings and no k-1 to deal with)...BDCL (yield about 18.3%) is another 2X ETRACK...CEFL (yield about 19.7%) is another monthly pay 2X ETRACK....what about KCAP (yield about 13.7%) or NMM (yield about 15.2%) after they level out a bit (???)...WMC (yield about 18.6%) is another one that has been sweet to me as is NYMT (yield about 14%)..! Good luck on your selections, I am 'in the money' on all of these I have named 'in Total Returns'...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    New dog BDC -- HTGC

    by marklibera May 8, 2015 11:35 AM
    staggman99 staggman99 May 8, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    mark...we all have to do what works the best for us (and I am having another great market day, including NMM)...however, you are always saying what 'will not' work...maybe you will start posting what 'will work' (???)...anybody can talk in circles (please post some facts based on real research)...

    I post 'before the fact' and not after the fact (I do post history and always detail my current holdings)...it would be nice if you would 'expand your research' and 'detail your forward opinions and holdings' on investments (as the rest of us do)...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    NMM again taking it in the shorts

    by sarge198502 May 8, 2015 9:32 AM
    staggman99 staggman99 May 8, 2015 6:26 PM Flag

    k-bon...every ones situation is a bit different in retirement, but the first thing to get used to is the 'slow down in the growth of our principal' and then to develop a steady revenue stream...plus, a few 'extra points' on dividends can add up to a lot of money over time (and that is very important)...

    Myself, I have S.S., a company pension, farm income, income from my investments, some lease income and I am debt free (plus, I am single and don't have extra hands in my pockets)...my supplemental insurance 'is free' in the state of Indiana (if we have Humana Insurance)...I also get an extra $85.00 a month to put on my Meds. (from Whirlpool Corp.)...I down sized to a smaller home several years ago (my home now has about 1,400 sq. ft.)...

    It is 'almost impossible' to get younger investors to realize how important 'revenue stream' is when we are retired...I have two investment accounts with TD Ameritrade (one is my IRA), and I self direct both of them...since I have retired I have tripled my investment principal as I have had some outstanding years in the markets...

    If an investor only has $300,000.00 invested and can get 'an extra' 5% in yields, that is $15,000.00 a year more income (and if any of it is compounded it will amount to a lot more, before taxes)...! Yes, I do all the high yield capture that I can, because my principal does not grow with contributions and a company match, like it did when I was employed (however, I do add a lot of farm income to my investments every year) ...!
    Stagg...!

  • staggman99 by staggman99 May 22, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    Board members... BDCL (yield about 22.7%) has been one of my core holdings for over two years...at this time in, Common Returns (by share price only), I am down about -17% on it over two years...however, when I add back my Total Returns (price plus yields) for over the last two years I am up about 11.5% a year (and lately it has been making a slow and steady increased in share price)...the Total Returns for BDCL over the last 3 years are 76%...

    Some may feel that I am 'cherry picking the dates' on Total Returns, but the fact is, the longer an investor holds a high yield stock the greater the Total Returns are (and if the yields are compounded they will be even a lot more)...we cannot run long term Total Returns on high yields 'without' using longer term dates, lol...! Just something else to think about because the high yields keep adding up...! Stagg...!

  • Board members...unless I am missing something (???), the new SFL and FRO deal 'looks pretty good' for the SFL shareholders, it will 'reduce debt pressure' on FRO and add more profit to SFL...i.e. SFL will own about 27% of FRO and will get 50% of the profit sharing with a lower threshold level (was 25% at a higher threshold and FRO will now pay quarterly profit shareing to SFL)..it also looks like SFL has about 20 million dollars coming in current profit sharing and SFL shareholders will probably get some extra shares or maybe a special dividend...

    I ran most of this information pretty fast so 'it may not be quite right', so feel free to add to or change what I have posted...! Stagg...!

  • Board members...SFL is now rated a 100% buy all of the short, medium and long term technical indicators that I use (100% buy ratings are a bit rare)...SFL has 'outstanding color' with all of the current and soon to be added 'extra cash' that they are going to be sitting on (in well excess of $240 million dollars)...

    FRO is now doing the Dead Cat Bounce and will probably move a bit forward in the future based on a better forward outlook (which is also very good for SFL)...a lot of investors thought that FRO would bring SFL into bankruptcy, but the opposite has happened...! JF and his advisors seem to be doing an outstanding job...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    the Stagg and Mark show

    by wyotrader Jun 4, 2015 1:12 PM
    staggman99 staggman99 Jun 4, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    trader...I see you also like to call investors dirty names...it is not my ego...I am tired of mark calling investors nasty names, 'such as a silly old man'...! More, I started this all purpose message board over 10 years ago and others like bayman and sarge came along and helped it out...sarge started the AMNB message board and I helped him do it and that is a fact...! We also started the AMNB message board to get away from the trolls, but mark followed us there and started it again (and that is another fact)...! Stagg...!

  • Reply to

    OT: MLPs selling off

    by marklibera Jun 3, 2015 1:47 PM
    staggman99 staggman99 Jun 3, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    board members...I am not trying to pick fight...but I think it is 'a cheap shot' when mark tells an investor what a bad investment it was 'after it does bad'...maybe in the future mark will tell us what the bad investments are 'before they go bad' and not after (???)...

    I always post all of my portfolio holdings (when I buy and sell), but mark pretty much keeps his secret, what is in his closet (??)...most of us do a lot of research and post our results...but mark mostly just gives his opinions (but almost no research except for the RSI and simple charts)...

    The purpose of this post is that as investors we should work together...however, when oil related stocks have a bad day mark starts taking 'cheap shots' at other investors...mark don't like high yields, stop loss orders, trailing stop loss orders, dollar cost averaging, REITs, BDC's, ETN's, Total Returns, Compound Returns, older investors and etc.,...! When does mark give an investor a complement on a good investment or a decent posted message (???)...! Stagg...!

LINE
4.04-0.72(-15.13%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT