the biggest reason that our board is not heavy with shallow pumpers is because most Longs have been here for quite a while and are in it for the long haul, believing in the long-term benefits of Belviq and Easai's ability to introduce the world to the drug. Yes, there are many posts by longs, of course, but most are substantitive, informative, thoughtful and in the true spirit of community sharing that this board is designed for. GLTA!
THANK YOU VERY MUCH, Sharon. The depth of your knowledge and research is a big help to all ARNA LONGS, especially those who have been here since before the first AdCom and have believed and hung in there with Lorcaserin and ARNA. You are very much appreciated and I hope you know that. GLTA!
THANK YOU, sharon, for posting this. Even if, as you suggest, the issue will not be voted on until a later session, it is very encouraging to see it being raised and meaningful dialogue and exchange will hopefully ensue in the near future. Very promising, to say the least, and a good thing for our country as well as us as shareholders. GLTA!
Most valuations, at least any that are computed using sound principles, are not based on the market price per share. After the total purchase price has been established, then the resultant per share amounts are calculated.
If there a competing product developed, it will affect Probuphine to some degree, whether Braeburn owns (or has the rights to) the competing product or not.
I like your post, beatle, and feel much the same way. I don't think being half-empty is the problem. I just think the galss isn't really that big, unfortunately. I can see it running up on some kind of choatic emotion, but there will only be a select few who get orders executed up there. It seems to always work that way......... If a person could by now at.$80 and sell at $1.50, they will have done very well, I think. GLTA!
If the stock might be worth "10 folds", then that would suggest the probability of approval is very, very low. That would be the way I see it.
If a buyout were announced and the pricing terms were specific, the price of DNDN would immediately reflect this value, discounted a little bit for timing until the day of the event.
1) You could hold your shares for a check (if a cash deal) or for shares of the acquiring company.
2) You could sell at any time
3) I don't believe there is a "tax event" until you sell any shares or receive cash payment from a "cash" deal.
Others may add to this, as I may have overlooked something, but that's what I think would happen.
Thanks for the reply, baffle. I see your point, having read the report several times since your post. I will admit it doesn't seem quite as clear to me that his pricing suggests no new trials, reading with a more jaundiced eye, but I still believe it does. It just seems to me that new trials would imply more dilution, more time and more certainly of the trial results. I guess it would be possible that the trial results could be unfavorable and I'm not sure where that would leave Probuphine's approval prospects. I would hope it wouldn't prevent it, but only make the dosage issue more clearly understood. I don't really know........ GLTA!
1) If you are working on a deal, like the one with Braeburn, with some lead time
2) If you know you will be getting $5,000,000 for "x number" of shares
3) If you know its shares will be based on a particular day's closing price
4) If you wanted to "walk the price down" via manipulation to allow the buyer to accumulate more shares because of the cheaper price on that particular day
5) If you believe in manipulation
6) I assume this could be done, especially in a lightly-traded stock
7) Was it? I don't know, of course, but I can see it plausible.
8) It is what it is, as they say, but what the heck is IT?
NO CLUE, as to why it surged. Your suggestion of a leak and relationship between the surge and recent Braeburn arrangements is certainly plausible, I think. I think we can all agree that the "mugging" by the FDA to prevent what seemed to be a well-deserved approval, combined with CRL (Type C, what does IT mean) and the length of time that has passed, makes decision-making very difficult right now.......at least, more difficult than when we following a "path to approval" that was a little more clear. GLTA!
You make a good point about the volume and the price surge to $1.20+ range.
Not that anything ever is, but this rise wasn't "clear" to any of us on the board, as best I can recall.
There was much speculation as to what was going on, but there was no consensus on any reason among most of the long-timers around here.
Of course, the "manipulation" postualte was invoked, as always.
For me, I have
matthew.....I understand and appreciate your sentiments.
It appears that the "market" feels the same way as Braeburn does because the stock price, despite the bit of dilution, is not significantly different that Braeburn's purchase. Now, for such a small and thinly traded stock as TTNP, I am assume that the "market" is "efficient" and is attempting to value TTNP. I recognize that his might be a ludicrous assumption, of course, but it's really all I go on, if I try to apply mathematical logic to TTNP's stock price. GOOD LUCK to you with TTNP.
Lastly, implied in this theoretical 55% would be that if:
1) If you think chances of approval with no new trials is GREATER than 55%, then you would be more inclined to purchase TTNP right now.
2) If you think chances of approval with no new trials is LESS than 55%, then you would be less inclined to purchase TTNP right now and might decide to wait until after the minutes are released.
Just my thoughts....................which, along with $2.00, will get you a Sunday Newspaper. :-)
$.83 is 55% of $1.50
That was my logic.
Example: If we were at $1.35, then I would conclude we were at 90% of JN's expected value (based on approval without new trials). The 90% would be so close that it would suggest approval is imminent and "baked in" so to speak.
It looks to me now, that our price indicates that it's a coin toss (50/50), more or less, than TTNP will not have new trials and will be approved on the re-submission. That is NOT a fact, but only what the pricing "suggests" to me. Please know that, as ALWAYS, I reserve the right to be 100% wrong in everything I've stated in this regard. I don't pretend to know and will defer that Napodano should know FAR more than I do. GLTA!