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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

stan.ackman 5 posts  |  Last Activity: May 16, 2014 10:14 AM Member since: Jul 15, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Get ready for dividend cut or elimination

    by savvyvalue May 8, 2014 8:28 AM
    stan.ackman stan.ackman May 16, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    Savvy, welcome joining my league. You were so bullish back then.

  • Reply to


    by jeffreybul23 May 15, 2014 11:00 AM
    stan.ackman stan.ackman May 16, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    The buybacks are just gimmick. XIN's diluted ADS increased to 90.8 million from 72.3 million a year ago, a holy 26% dilution.

  • Now, we know the buybacks are just gimmick. Today's earnings release showed the diluted ADS jumped by 26% year over year to 90.8 million from 72.2 million. This may be old news since its end of 2013 number already 90 million. At least, we know the buybacks are used just to issue even more shares.

    PS: I have not come back for a while. This morning, the XIN earnings release pupped on my SA screen. Then I read it. Terrible. I am glad I got out last year. Dishonest management. All the efforts they put is to grab more money from shareholders. Do the math. Their capital distribution is not even near the pace of share dilution.

  • Reply to

    Diluted ADS Increased by 26% Y/Y

    by stan.ackman May 16, 2014 9:16 AM
    stan.ackman stan.ackman May 16, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Yes. They are growing the top line, but the bottom line decreased by 68%. This is something I expected long time old. When people screamed about how low its P/E is, I said it is normal for a company that will see its EPS drops substantially in the future. I used to feel XIN's fair value is $5. Now, given the declining RE climate in China, I have to lower the fair value estimate.

    Again, I no longer follow this company that closely. So, I have no exact target number now. I guess the current price already reflects its fair value. XIN will fluctuate depending on the prospect of China's RE climate. For now, it does not look good. it is the first time in the last 15 years that the market cools down without government's interference.

  • Reply to

    Diluted ADS Increased by 26% Y/Y

    by stan.ackman May 16, 2014 9:16 AM
    stan.ackman stan.ackman May 16, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Thanks for the reply. That helps answer the dilution. Still, the buybacks have minimal impact even without the TPG investment.

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