Chinese inflation is currently running about 1.6%....which is much lower than their forecasts...so I know "they will accept higher inflation"....they just announced it with an interest rate cut.
Growth is a choice in the shorter term...it was the Chinese raising interest rates in the last several years that slowed growth and lowered the inflation that comes with growth. China has started and stopped stimulus several times in the last 6 years.
You can fight deflation just like you can fight inflation.
The Chinese cut rates for the same reason the USA or Europe cuts rates. The Chinese have inflation well under 2% and growth is slipping below 7%. They want to stabilize growth around 6.5% - 7% and they will accept higher inflation. There may be more rate cuts in the future and/or RRR lowering and they have a bag full of stimulus measures they can trot out if required.
...... November 22, Xinyuan / Xin Yuan masters fully open identification chips. Thousand people heard the news rushed to the sales office, winter panic room staged fiery frenzy.
Less than 8:00 am, the sales center is crowded, all prospective owners are eager to ask the staff situation on the reservation identification chips. Others took up the size chart lively discussion, Xin Yuan masters 89-137㎡ whole family South transparent so that the presence of customers excited......
HLA would also rather prices stay depressed so they can use their own dividends/cash to buy cheap stock......like they have done for the last 6-8 years.
"Top leaders have changed their views," said a senior economist at a government think-tank .... "Further interest rate cuts should be in the pipeline as we have entered into a rate-cut cycle and RRR cuts are also likely,"
Apparently XIN started internet sales....from ceramic tile to mangoes on their recently developed micro-channel site. It appears on Nov. 15 they are trying to direct sell real estate as well....starting with Sanya and Williamsburg. That is what I seem to get from Google translate.
November 21, 2014 Source: Beijing Times
Jinghua Times (Reporter Zhang Shuling) November 15, Xin Yuan Chinese official micro-channel platform was officially launched. Micro-channel platform trial run on September 30, ended October 31, line one month trial run on the platform, the number of fans to break 40,000, the number of registered sales reached more than 10,000 people, hundreds of sets of volume platforms, such results to the whole industry a shock.........etc.
Hopefully they eliminate it. It's silly to not buy back stock with the money...but my guess is that XIN will announce a 5 cent dividend in the next two weeks.
LOL! And several days later..... the same statement is still true.
XIN hit $1.50 about 3 years ago and hit $7.40 before that bounce was over.
-----big revenue quarter-----
XIN expects $300M revenue in Q4......this should be rather easy for them to predict.
XIN expects $500M contract sales in Q4.....with 5 projects entering pre-sales in the last weeks of Q4, this is very hard for XIN to predict and a big uncertainty.
I believe the contract sales, which approximate cash flow, will determine much in the short term....like how much they buyback and how much land they buy....and the dividend.
My guess is that TPG will stand pat with their 6M ADS.
Three analysts have RTK with a nickel loss for the year......do you think the "naked shorts" will sabotage earnings again....or will your buddy HR prevail over those evil doers?
I don't think Chinese real estate will go south next year....but it might....it is a risk. Debt is modest...somewhere between Tier 1 developers and Tier 2 developers. Debt might go to high levels....but I suspect sales will move along with it or they won't increase the debt much. As far as what the market thinks.....that is usually opportunity knocking.
--------Chinese inquiries about real estate investment in the United States surged 35 per cent this week after the two countries agreed to extend the terms of short-term visas, China's top international property portal said on Friday.
The White House announced this week that both countries have extended the terms of multiple entry short-term tourist and business visas to 10 years from one year. Student visas were extended to five years from one
year. Student visas were extended to five years from one year. -------
Three years ago XIN had a book value of $7.50/ADS......today a book value of $12.50/ADS.
Three years ago XIN had $407M in cash....today cash of 553M.
XIN is profitable today.....the only thing missing is high profits....which will be the start of the next bounce. $2.00/ADS profits in one Quarter in 2016 from just one project....Oosten.
One places a bet....take the risks of failure....and gets rewarded if correct. Or one can just BBS on a msg board like you.
LOL! Got your red "thumbs down" stamp of approval! Just need some good PsychBabble!
Are the naked shorts "manipulating" the SP up today?