I will answer for the year 2015....3 quarters so far.
I calculate XIN bought back around 200,000 ADS so far in 2015 which gives about a ZILCH "annualized stock buyback yield". This excludes about 1.1 Million ADS bought back so far and issued as "management" RSU/options incentives....which have no immediate yield to me as an average shareholder.
So don't spend too much time thinking about profits returned to shareholders in 2015 beyond the 6% dividend....but about what reinvested profits will bring in the future. I calculate XIN could earn around $2/ADS in 2016 and hope that a much larger percentage of profits will be returned to shareholders next year. But I don't own the 50% of XIN equity that TPG/Zhang own, so I don't decide how much profits are returned to shareholders and how much profit is reinvested in the business.
Wonder if Kayko closed out his short position? Wonder if Ramsbottom closed out his short position? Lots of questions and no answers on msg boards.
------- continuing to not sell ----------
The big upside of 6 projects selling "zilch" in Q3 2015......... is that it can't get any worse.....only upside from any improvement. I will take $35 million for Q4 net income as I will take my(conservative) guess of $25 million for Q4, which is nearly over in any case.
Q1 2016 starts in a few weeks....and 2016 could be a "blowout year" with earnings of over $2/ADS.
------ Two of China’s biggest real estate firms are seeking approval to raise about 47 billion yuan ($7.37 billion) in Shanghai listings, in the first batch of companies to start the listing process after an almost five-month hiatus.
China said earlier this month it would resume initial public offerings (IPOs), which had been suspended since July as authorities tried to stem a market crash.
The reopened window gives property developers, among the most indebted sector in China, another channel to refinance amid slower sales and chase a more favorable valuation as their shares in Hong Kong remain cheap............ --------
There could be as many as 600,000 ADS repurchased in Q3....depending on the price they paid. The average ADS used to calculate income dropped by 88,000 ADS in Q3 which indicates about 250,000 ADS were bought back and not issued for compensation. The trustee did buy back almost 343,000 ADS in Q3.
"From July 1 to July 13, 2015, 785,698 common shares were repurchased at a total cost of US$1,192,871 by the trust administering the 2014 Restricted Stock Unit Plan."
---- zilch ----
Six projects that sold almost nothing in Q3.....
Zhengzhou XIN City
Zhengzhou thriving family
Xingyang Splendid II
Jinan Xinyuan Splendid
Beijing Xindo Park.
Will these projects sell better in Q4? Sales results will make a big difference in Q4.
I think large numbers of traders took positions for short term gains.....and now they are moving on to the next trade.
My guess for Q3 is for about $25 million net income.....slightly better than Q3. There are two new projects opening up in Q4 and I have seen no news yet on how they are doing. Several of XIN's projects did zilch in Q3 (Sanya for example). Will there do better in Q4? I have no idea.
You are right.... $1.7 Million on the buyback. 400,000 ADS was my guess . Since the avg price during late Aug and Sept was about $2.80......XIN could have bought back more than 400,000 ADS.
3 days after earnings for the blackout to end. I believe that means either Tuesday or Wednesday for XIN to be able to buy back.
----- 88,000 ADS drop -----
Which is a weighted average, I believe. Since XIN would have bought in the last half of Q3.....the actual buyback would be larger than 88,000. The caller on the earnings call thought 200,000 bought back.....XIN's CFO thought it was higher than that....but didn't have the number at hand.
ADS used in the income statement was down only 88,000 ADS from Q2....so I expect XIN may have bought back only a small amount. The .85 million ADS difference in the treasury shares might be what XIN's trustee bought for management options/RSU?
--------- Investment in real estate development in China continued to slow even as housing sales rose in the first 10 months of this year, as developers focused on clearing existing inventory.
Housing sales rose 18.0 per cent to 5.47 trillion yuan ($US860 billion) during the January to October period year-over-year, compared to the 18.2 per cent rise recorded in the first three quarters this year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.
In October alone, housing sales rose 16.1 per cent from a year earlier, up from the 15.6 per cent rise in September, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal.
Housing sales have rebounded in 2015 from a decline in 2014 following multiple moves by policymakers to ease restrictions on home purchases and lower mortgage rates.......
.......... Investment in real estate development in China in the first ten months of this year rose by 2.0 per cent to 7.88 trillion yuan, moderating from the 2.6 per cent growth recorded in the first nine months this year and hitting the slowest rate of increase since the start of 2009.
Building starts across residential and commercial property fell 13.9 per cent to 1.27 billion square meters in the first ten months, compared to the 12.6 per cent decline recorded in the January to September period. ----------
There are now 18 units over $2 M under contract....up from 14 this morning. I don't think Halstead just sold them....perhaps XIN is selling them in China? XIN has about 20 Oosten units listed for sale on their Chinese web site.