meant 105K (your estimate) total PBA patients which is higher than my 86K total patient estimate
Hi if I would do that for your numbers (8x overestimated) I would get a market share of 70K patients in the US only, compared to 57.5K in my example for US + EU
Hi #$%$, I'm talking about the difference between the growth he reported in the last 2 conferences compared to what we see every week in the script numbers from the IMS
from the conference:
So you look at the quarter ending September 30, the sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in unit demand with 12%. If you look at this quarter, the first seven weeks of this quarter over the first seven weeks of last quarter, and we are up to a shy of 10%.
12% growth in Q4, the IMS data was pretty much flat for those 3 months
10% growth in the first 7 weeks of Q1, IMS shows 2%-3%
I'm happy with the numbers but why the difference?
No one knows how big the PBA market is, not even AVNR management
But my valuation was merely an exercise to show that even with a modest 50K-60K patients, AVNR should be valued at higher levels
Moderator out of no where asks about settlement scenarios
Mod: what is your scenario if you settle with generics for 2020? how does that affect your strategy?
KK: doesn't affect all, we're fully invested on bringing the new ddex compound as quickly as possible
it helps us contacting physicians which were inaccessible to us but now they want to hear about januvia and diabetes. We talk to them about januvia and have to chance to explain what nuedexta does
Moderator: our definition of significant reduction is 50% reduction what is your definition of significant reduction?
KK: is more than 50% reduction of quinidine
i think the retail market is not 6 - 8 times over estimated but close to 40 times over estimated (2.5% of 1.7M).
even with this pessimistic approach valuation is quite interesting
1) 57.5K PBA patients, 42.5K (retail) + 15K (assume that LTC is also overestimated)
2) $460M gross revenues in US, KK mentioned 15K patients translated in $120M revenues
3) $230M gross revenues in EU, 50% of US revenues even though the US has a population of 300M against 500M in the EU
3) $690M total gross revenues
4) $552M total net revenues
There has been some acquisition activity in the pharmaceutical sector, companies have been acquired at 6 - 8 times sales
We'll use 6, this puts AVNR at $3.31B or $22 per share
1) retail market overestimated 40 times
2) ltc market overestimated 6.5 times
3) EU only 50% of US market even though has a larger population
4) no Optinose sales
5) exclude value of pipeline of pain, alzheimer, ms, parkinson, depression, new dddx, etc
and we still have a $22 pps valuation
even if I'm wrong by 50% we still have a double digit valuation
the big blocking rock is the generics lawsuit
setting under the care of their general practitioner, of their neurologist, of their psychiatrist and there we only got 5,000 patients that are on therapy. So less than 1% penetrated. So we’ve got tremendous growth in both segments, which for us is really a great position to be in, because we really believe that we continue to grow NUEDEXTA for PBA for years to come.
So we had always seen tremendous success within the long term care setting, but it was at the sacrifice of retail. So as we went through this expansion and realignment earlier this year, the real focus on retail. And so as we look forward over the next 12 months, we expect we'll continue to see success in long term care. We're really looking to see a spark in retail. And with the additional resources that we're putting in retail, we think that that will become a meaningful contributor to the growth in the overall business.
And what's really nice is and I eluded to this earlier, if you look at the penetration into PBA by segment, so if you look at long term care we estimate there's about 100,000 patients in long term care that suffer from minor to severe PBA. As I sit here today, only about 10,000 patients are being treated. So only about 10% penetration, so we still have tremendous growth opportunity in long term care, but if you switch to retail, we have had 1.7 million patients that have PBA from the retail setting under the care of their gene
Absolutely. So as I mentioned our fiscal year ended on September 30th. We did approximately $92.1 million in gross revenues for the year ended September 30th. I’m happy to say that as we sit here today looking at our recent prescription trends, we're running about $120 million in gross revenue, so very commercially meaningful amount of revenues.
Looking at the quarter ending September 30th, the quarter-over-quarter growth in total business is about 12% sequentially, which we're very happy with. And then if you look at this quarter to date, so the first seven weeks of the fourth quarter, we're looking at just about 10% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. So we're still seeing a very good momentum in the business. Additionally as we look forward, we completed a sales force reorganization in the July, August timeframe. And what that has allowed us do is increase our sales force size, with a stronger focus on the retail setting.
I could hardly understand her email address. I'll try tomorrow to put questions, if possible, about Europe and the poison pill being removed
$120M. Growth 10% in the last 7 weeks over previous quarter
if decision after 31st December they'll have to file an injunction to prevent generics from launching their drug
by 31st december 2013 (30 month ANDA date) but not surprised if between 15th January - 15th February